UPDATED 5/1:: HERE'S WHY OUR DRIVES STALL... (after reviewing alex's starts)

9erHIGH I repeat my appreciation for your game review. You are a student of the game whose analysis matters far more than the opinion of many others. More posters should engage in this kind of effort before launching into their tirades about someone sucking.

I know that you have only studied four games so far, but I was curious whether you have formed any opinion about how often an incompletion, an interception or a failure to get a first down was caused solely by Alex, in contrast to some other player failing to execute properly being a factor. In other words, if the play-calling improves, the OL performs better and our receivers improve their performance, do you feel Alex can get the job done for us?

Originally posted by excelsior:
9erHIGH I repeat my appreciation for your game review. You are a student of the game whose analysis matters far more than the opinion of many others. More posters should engage in this kind of effort before launching into their tirades about someone sucking.

I know that you have only studied four games so far, but I was curious whether you have formed any opinion about how often an incompletion, an interception or a failure to get a first down was caused solely by Alex, in contrast to some other player failing to execute properly being a factor. In other words, if the play-calling improves, the OL performs better and our receivers improve their performance, do you feel Alex can get the job done for us?

stop using logic people this the WZ..but seriously i agree with excelsior

I hate to see this thread die. When someone goes to the effort to engage in some thoughtful analysis, some of you run away as if your brain rebels if it is asked to put out some effort.

I hope 9erHIGH is not discouraged from continuing his study. I, for one, has appreciated it enormously and think it helps us reach some factually based conclusions. Others, in contrast, would rather engage in fantasy-based rants.

Originally posted by excelsior:
I hate to see this thread die. When someone goes to the effort to engage in some thoughtful analysis, some of you run away as if your brain rebels if it is asked to put out some effort.

I hope 9erHIGH is not discouraged from continuing his study. I, for one, has appreciated it enormously and think it helps us reach some factually based conclusions. Others, in contrast, would rather engage in fantasy-based rants.

cosign. read all 4 so far, thanks 9erhigh

Originally posted by excelsior:
9erHIGH I repeat my appreciation for your game review. You are a student of the game whose analysis matters far more than the opinion of many others. More posters should engage in this kind of effort before launching into their tirades about someone sucking.

I know that you have only studied four games so far, but I was curious whether you have formed any opinion about how often an incompletion, an interception or a failure to get a first down was caused solely by Alex, in contrast to some other player failing to execute properly being a factor. In other words, if the play-calling improves, the OL performs better and our receivers improve their performance, do you feel Alex can get the job done for us?

thank all you guys for your kind words. I REALLY DO APPRECIATE KNOWING THAT THERE ARE LIKE-MINDED FANS WHO APPRECIATE THE EFFORT!!!

there is A LOT to be encouraged by alex's play from what i can gather so far. he has shown that::

1. HE CAN MAKE EVERY THROW NEEDED WITH ACCURACY.
he is not consistent enough yet, and i have repeatedly stated he needs to get the ball down a little, especially over the middle, BUT he has done it enough times to know that he has is in him. deep middle, deep fade with touch, dig on a rope, screens with touch, deep out on a rope, you name it and he did it a few times last year.

2. HE CAN LOOK OFF DEFENDERS.
he doesnt do it enough and on occassion he did lock on to a target, but almost all QBs do at times, especially 26 year old QBs. he has gotten better and there is no reason to think he wont continue to improve.

3. HE CAN GET THE BALL OUT QUICK AND RIP THROUGH PROGRESSIONS.
again, he didnt do it as much as we would like and perhaps "rip" is a little too strong, but (and you'll hear me say this a lot) he has gotten better and there is no reason to think he wont continue to improve.

4. HE CAN CREATE PLAYS WHEN THE DESIGNED PLAY BREAKS DOWN.
again, he didnt do it as much as we would like but he has gotten better and there is no reason to think he wont continue to improve. < - - sound familiar?

5. HE CAN THROW THE BALL WITH CONFIDENCE BEFORE THE RECIEVER IS OUT OF HIS BREAK.
do i even need to cut and paste this time? the other thing is the more i watched, the more i started to think that perhaps there were REASONS he sometimes wants to see his receivers make their cuts first. vernon has never been accused of haveing great football instincts and it showed at times. off the top of my head i can think of at least two occassions this directly lead to INTs on pretty well thrown balls. if you're alex, and you understand the importance of NOT throwing INTs, wouldnt that make you hesitate at times? crabtree also ran some routes wrong (or didnt run a route at all) on some VERY critical occassions (redzone, 3rd down.) again, if you're alex and you know you really need to make a play, wouldnt you be inclined to look somewhere else first?

6. REMEMBER THAT EVERYTHING HE DID LAST YEAR HE DID WITH ONE OF, IF NOT THE MOST POROUS AND INEFFECTIVE OLs IN THE NFL.
the fact that we didnt have the most sacks in the NFL is amazing to me and the dramatic decrease in # of sacks per pass play when alex played vs when hill played bares witness to this fact. as good as gore is, we still did have the most ineffective run game (based upon # of runs of less than 2yds) in the NFL last year.

many will always argue that he doesnt have the "IT" factor, but the guy really made some big plays for us last year, and the fact is, as he makes more and more of those plays, his teammates WILL begin to rally around him and believe in him more and more. his leadership will naturally improve as athletes respect performance and hard work more than anything else. whether or not he will ever be said to have "IT" i will let others debate.

...so all that being said, do i believe that alex can take us to the promise land? my answer is that the WHOLE OFFENSE NEEDS TO IMPROVE this offseason. they ALL need to have a better and more immediate understanding of what they are all supposed to be doing on every single play (and our OL needs a talent infusion.) much of that will come simply by being in the 2nd year under raye and having an upgraded OL coach. i have every confidence that as that happens, NOBODY, will be more prepared to take full advantage of that improvement than alex smith.

mark my words, get the OL fixed, keep all the other pieces in place and in sync with raye's O, and ALEX WILL HAVE A BREAKOUT SEASON IN 2010. he'll be thought of in that group with a.rodgers, p.rivers, m.ryan as a young and talented QB who will only get better.

Thank you for your thoughtful response. It is fans like you, and a few others, who make this forum a worthwhile and gratifying experience.

I was looking at stats the other day and Smiths stats weren't to bad except for one major category 1st dwn % he was ranked 30th out of 32 QB's with 26.3%. Only Russel and Cassel were worse. Hopefully a full offseason will help fix a lot of our offensive problems that revolve around Smith

Originally posted by 9erHIGH:

Originally posted by excelsior:
9erHIGH I repeat my appreciation for your game review. You are a student of the game whose analysis matters far more than the opinion of many others. More posters should engage in this kind of effort before launching into their tirades about someone sucking.

I know that you have only studied four games so far, but I was curious whether you have formed any opinion about how often an incompletion, an interception or a failure to get a first down was caused solely by Alex, in contrast to some other player failing to execute properly being a factor. In other words, if the play-calling improves, the OL performs better and our receivers improve their performance, do you feel Alex can get the job done for us?

thank all you guys for your kind words. I REALLY DO APPRECIATE KNOWING THAT THERE ARE LIKE-MINDED FANS WHO APPRECIATE THE EFFORT!!!

there is A LOT to be encouraged by alex's play from what i can gather so far. he has shown that::

1. HE CAN MAKE EVERY THROW NEEDED WITH ACCURACY.
he is not consistent enough yet, and i have repeatedly stated he needs to get the ball down a little, especially over the middle, BUT he has done it enough times to know that he has is in him. deep middle, deep fade with touch, dig on a rope, screens with touch, deep out on a rope, you name it and he did it a few times last year.

2. HE CAN LOOK OFF DEFENDERS.
he doesnt do it enough and on occassion he did lock on to a target, but almost all QBs do at times, especially 26 year old QBs. he has gotten better and there is no reason to think he wont continue to improve.

3. HE CAN GET THE BALL OUT QUICK AND RIP THROUGH PROGRESSIONS.
again, he didnt do it as much as we would like and perhaps "rip" is a little too strong, but (and you'll hear me say this a lot) he has gotten better and there is no reason to think he wont continue to improve.

4. HE CAN CREATE PLAYS WHEN THE DESIGNED PLAY BREAKS DOWN.
again, he didnt do it as much as we would like but he has gotten better and there is no reason to think he wont continue to improve. < - - sound familiar?

5. HE CAN THROW THE BALL WITH CONFIDENCE BEFORE THE RECIEVER IS OUT OF HIS BREAK.
do i even need to cut and paste this time? the other thing is the more i watched, the more i started to think that perhaps there were REASONS he sometimes wants to see his receivers make their cuts first. vernon has never been accused of haveing great football instincts and it showed at times. off the top of my head i can think of at least two occassions this directly lead to INTs on pretty well thrown balls. if you're alex, and you understand the importance of NOT throwing INTs, wouldnt that make you hesitate at times? crabtree also ran some routes wrong (or didnt run a route at all) on some VERY critical occassions (redzone, 3rd down.) again, if you're alex and you know you really need to make a play, wouldnt you be inclined to look somewhere else first?

6. REMEMBER THAT EVERYTHING HE DID LAST YEAR HE DID WITH ONE OF, IF NOT THE MOST POROUS AND INEFFECTIVE OLs IN THE NFL.
the fact that we didnt have the most sacks in the NFL is amazing to me and the dramatic decrease in # of sacks per pass play when alex played vs when hill played bares witness to this fact. as good as gore is, we still did have the most ineffective run game (based upon # of runs of less than 2yds) in the NFL last year.

many will always argue that he doesnt have the "IT" factor, but the guy really made some big plays for us last year, and the fact is, as he makes more and more of those plays, his teammates WILL begin to rally around him and believe in him more and more. his leadership will naturally improve as athletes respect performance and hard work more than anything else. whether or not he will ever be said to have "IT" i will let others debate.

...so all that being said, do i believe that alex can take us to the promise land? my answer is that the WHOLE OFFENSE NEEDS TO IMPROVE this offseason. they ALL need to have a better and more immediate understanding of what they are all supposed to be doing on every single play (and our OL needs a talent infusion.) much of that will come simply by being in the 2nd year under raye and having an upgraded OL coach. i have every confidence that as that happens, NOBODY, will be more prepared to take full advantage of that improvement than alex smith.

mark my words, get the OL fixed, keep all the other pieces in place and in sync with raye's O, and ALEX WILL HAVE A BREAKOUT SEASON IN 2010. he'll be thought of in that group with a.rodgers, p.rivers, m.ryan as a young and talented QB who will only get better.

Again, keep up the good work. It's very refreshing to open NT and read a post that has actually been thought out.

I Applaud you sir.

Originally posted by redmanc07:
I was looking at stats the other day and Smiths stats weren't to bad except for one major category 1st dwn % he was ranked 30th out of 32 QB's with 26.3%. Only Russel and Cassel were worse. Hopefully a full offseason will help fix a lot of our offensive problems that revolve around Smith

26.3%? OUCH! that's awful! i've been focussing so much on 3rd downs (and the series of downs leading up to a failed 3rd down conversion) because of the struggles we had converting on 3rd. i had no idea. that almost seems too bad to comprehend.
- i wonder if coverages are less predictable on 1st down across the NFL...
- i wonder if raye tends to call the pass plays we struggle with a bit more on 1st down and saves our "go to" pass plays on 2nd and 3rd down to make up for what we didn't gain on 1st...
- i wonder if that's part of why we faced so many 3rd and longs (altho i didnt seem to notice a pattern like that in the games i reviewed)
- i wonder what the league average for comp % on 1st down is, and what the % for guys like peyton and brees is...
- i wonder what came first, the chicken or the egg...

where did u find a breakdown of those stats?

it's ironic tho because he was one of the most efficient QBs in the NFL when
INSIDE THE OPP 40 YARD LINE, for what it's worth...

I went back and re-read your game summaries, 9erHIGH. It is sad how often they ran on first and second down with very little gain, leaving 3rd and long. There were also far too many harmful penalties that put them in 2nd or 3rd and long.

This makes it clear that we need to not only CORRECT the OL breakdowns, but we need to eliminate those bonehead MISTAKES.

Alex may or may not become a great QB. But if we just improve our OL and eliminate most of these stupid mistakes on offense, this team could do very well indeed.

There are those who are focused on the notion that we have to get a great QB. But this would be like demanding we get the best race car driver, while we pay little attention to fixing the race car.

Originally posted by 9erHIGH:

Originally posted by mug0mug:

Originally posted by 9erHIGH:
UPDATED 4/18: HERE'S WHY DRIVES OUR STALLING... (after review of alex's starts)

If you're updating the thread, and since you've put so much time into it, you might as well fix the title...

"are"...or maybe "our drives are"...(and Alex should be captitalized, unlike the majority of other letters that are).

Just saying

thanks. didnt even notice that. fixed...

but i left alex lower case just cuz ur not the boss of me.

It's all good. I was mostly just messing with you. Do what you will. The grammar only bothered me a little bit, but I mostly just didn't want all the time you put into a cool and unique thread to be degraded by a messed up title.

updated with detroit game...
that was a really disappointing game because we were at home, alex was in his 8th or 9th start of the year so you hoped to see some cohesiveness and against that D you'd think alex would be primed to have his best performance of the year. but it was the complete opposite. i thought he played his worst game of the year. still not THAT bad, but, see what you think...

Originally posted by 9erHIGH:
updated with detroit game...
that was a really disappointing game because we were at home, alex was in his 8th or 9th start of the year so you hoped to see some cohesiveness and against that D you'd think alex would be primed to have his best performance of the year. but it was the complete opposite. i thought he played his worst game of the year. still not THAT bad, but, see what you think...

I agree. But it seems to me the Line plays to the level of the opponents D and no better. Or did anyway. It was annoying that when we went to the SpreadGun that we had success(except for 1st half against Philly) but if we changed it up at all we were right back to being dogs.

I'm glad that you took the time to break it down though.
Cause I can now use your thread as a stick to beat the haters back with. ...

~Ceadder

[ Edited by Ceadderman on Apr 25, 2010 at 23:50:46 ]

Originally posted by Ceadderman:

Originally posted by 9erHIGH:
updated with detroit game...
that was a really disappointing game because we were at home, alex was in his 8th or 9th start of the year so you hoped to see some cohesiveness and against that D you'd think alex would be primed to have his best performance of the year. but it was the complete opposite. i thought he played his worst game of the year. still not THAT bad, but, see what you think...

I agree. But it seems to me the Line plays to the level of the opponents D and no better. Or did anyway. It was annoying that when we went to the SpreadGun that we had success(except for 1st half against Philly) but if we changed it up at all we were right back to being dogs.

I'm glad that you took the time to break it down though.
Cause I can now use your thread as a stick to beat the haters back with. ...

~Ceadder

that's true about our OL. i have yet to review a game and think... "hmmn, our OL didnt play too bad." instead i am repeatedly amazed at how poorly they played as a unit, how much trouble they had with simple 4 and 5 man pressures even when we had 6 in to block, and how on 75% of our run plays, at least one guy (and it wouldnt always be the same guy) would completely whiff on a key block that would cause gore to have to stop and try to evade tackles just as he is getting the ball. mind-blowing. after reviewing these games I AM COMPLETELY STOKED ON OUR 1ST ROUND!!!

Originally posted by 9erHIGH:

Originally posted by Ceadderman:

Originally posted by 9erHIGH:
updated with detroit game...
that was a really disappointing game because we were at home, alex was in his 8th or 9th start of the year so you hoped to see some cohesiveness and against that D you'd think alex would be primed to have his best performance of the year. but it was the complete opposite. i thought he played his worst game of the year. still not THAT bad, but, see what you think...

I agree. But it seems to me the Line plays to the level of the opponents D and no better. Or did anyway. It was annoying that when we went to the SpreadGun that we had success(except for 1st half against Philly) but if we changed it up at all we were right back to being dogs.

I'm glad that you took the time to break it down though.
Cause I can now use your thread as a stick to beat the haters back with. ...

~Ceadder

that's true about our OL. i have yet to review a game and think... "hmmn, our OL didnt play too bad." instead i am repeatedly amazed at how poorly they played as a unit, how much trouble they had with simple 4 and 5 man pressures even when we had 6 in to block, and how on 75% of our run plays, at least one guy (and it wouldnt always be the same guy) would completely whiff on a key block that would cause gore to have to stop and try to evade tackles just as he is getting the ball. mind-blowing. after reviewing these games I AM COMPLETELY STOKED ON OUR 1ST ROUND!!!

And to think I do my reviewing during the play.

But I guess that happens when you have a form of OCD like I do. I can see the whole play unfold and can pretty much point out where the gaff is. I'm working from memory here but I would have to say Heitman gives up about 35% of the blocks. I'd say that because just about EVERY time that Frank bounces to the Right(where he usually goes) it's cause an Opposing player is right in the middle forcing Frank outside his gap. But that's what I like Frank so much. If you put Barlow in that situation the guy would freeze up and his momentum would be zilch at that point. Then he'd dance better than Emmit Smith on DWtS. I'm glad that guy no longer plays for this team.

~Ceadder