Alex Smith's 16 game 2009 season stats

I'm not a big fan of Alex Smith. Also, Alex hasn't done anything this year to change that opinion. I was hoping he would, but that's another story. Has he improved, surely.
Is he the QB that's going to take us to a SuperBowl win? I really don't know, and that's the hard part.
Singletary has confirmed in his press conference yest that Alex would be the starter "for now". I'm going to assume that he will start next year, until/unless we get a proven QB in the offseason.
So for all practical purposes, let's hope he succeeds next year and we get into the playoffs.

Next year, I don't care if we finish 9-7 or 10-6...the key is the playoffs. I guess we said the same thing last season as well.
Life goes on.

Originally posted by Kalen49ers:
So the real question is why the hell didn't we keep Martz!?!

You mean Mr. Martz who thought JT O'Sullivan is the best QB he ever worked with? The same Mr. Martz who used Vernon Davis mostly as a third tackle? The same Mr. Martz who froze totally at least two or three times when the game was on the line? The same Mr. Martz who didn't know why he has to use Frank Gore?

Beats me.

Originally posted by boomer49er:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by boomer49er:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:

Originally posted by Joecool:
OK, here we go...how about these 16 game stats:

Percentage: 62.8
Yards: 4,092
Average per completion: 7.1
Touchdowns: 26
Interceptions: 16
Rating: 87.5

Can you guess who started 8 games and if those 8 games were projected to 16, these would be his stats?


2008 "Noodle Arm" in an offense that concentrated on his strengths.


Consider this thread defunked.

That was in a Martz offense...how is that a fair comparison?

-9fA

It's not, but I'm just saying one cannot project stats, especially when those stats are from really good games and really bad games. It's just too inconsistent.

Also, you're right, it isn't Martz offense, so what makes us think Raye can turn a terrible offense that had more talent than last year into one better than Martz can. Even if Alex plays better, I think Raye is a mediocre style of OC who doesn't work hard enough to get his players prepared.

I definitely agree with your first paragraph. I just didn't understand that the point that you were trying to make. I think the OP knows that it's not a good idea to extrapolate statistics.

I feel that the issue is not the offense, it's the playcalling. For example, in Hostler's case, it was clearly the offense.

Often times, there were several WTF Martz playcalls last year as well until Singletary reeled him in. I'm hoping now that Smith will be able to reach a comfort level with the offense, that he'll be given a little more leeway in determining the plays that are suitable to be run. Whether this will happen or not, who knows..

-9fA

I just don't think Raye will be the reason why this team wins. I feel we win in Spite of Raye. It just doesn't seem like he prepares or studies much. Most of his interviews always point to, "Let us see what happens in the game and we will make adjustments from there." That's a mediocre mentality and it's a lazy mentality. I really hope Singletary is prepping our QB coach to take over. Raye deserves his respect but I think he lacks the energy to prepare this offense to be a top rated offense.

I seem to remember you Smith haters being ready to crown Hill last year, so is it a double standard?

I could use an excuse and say what if Raye does the run-run-pass offense next year as Hill converted from Martz passing to Raye's run-run-pass (Hill got snubbed) but I will just say that the "Smith Haters" are using our incorrect projection of Hill to be a lesson that stats don't project until they are logged in as official.

So you're using the fact that Hill had to change offenses as the reason why he failed? Yet you ignore the fast that Smith has changed offenses every year and that this will be the first year that he's had the oppertunity to spend an entire offseason in the same offense that he had ran the year prior?

That's not even close to what I said. I said what if Raye goes back to run-run-pass next year and puts Smith in difficult situation as Hill was under early this year. So, Smith, as was Hill, would go from a QB friendly style to a RB friendly style. I'm sure Smith doesn't perform as well being under Center in a run-run-pass, right? That's what position Hill was in.

Originally posted by Niners99:
had Smith played a full 16 game season at the level he played this season, his stats would like look this:

327/541 for 3,419 yds and 26 TD's with 17 ints

still obviously an 81.5 QB rating and 60.5% comp%

those passing yards are only about 100 less than Donovan McNabb's season, and are 400 yds more than Carson Palmer haf this year.

the 26 TD passes he was on pace for, wouldve been good for 10th in the NFL, tied with Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, and Kurt Warner.

also the 327 completions wouldve been better than Philip Rivers, and around the 10th-12th best in the league.

this thread isnt meant to be pro or anti Smith, i was curious to see what he was on pace for in a 16 game season, and see how it stacked up against the rest of the NFL. remove his 2 worst games vs AZ and @PHI back to back, his QB rating wouldve been almost 90.0.

im just saying, maybe its time to let go of the number 1 overall disappointment/anger and see what happens. when a full season projection of what you did in 11 games equates to guys like McNabb and Carson Palmer, maybe you should be a bit less critical.

I will admit, those aren't bad stats. The major issues of course are:

* his % completion should be closer to 65% if he even wants to be in the upper half of QBs in the league.
* he has the benefit of playing the worst division in the league, including the last 2 games being against the two worst teams in the league
* some of the harder games were on Shaun Hill's watch.
* Smith's stats are wildly inconsistent from game to game.

He has improved a lot and he can play.

No we don't have the worst division. That is the Chargers division. They play the Raiders and Chiefs 4 times. That's 4 - 0 no matter what you do. And the Broncos mail it in at the end of the year every single year. By default the Chargers win that every year. Perhaps the most overrated 13 - 3 team I've seen.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
He has improved a lot and he can play.

No we don't have the worst division. That is the Chargers division. They play the Raiders and Chiefs 4 times. That's 4 - 0 no matter what you do. And the Broncos mail it in at the end of the year every single year. By default the Chargers win that every year. Perhaps the most overrated 13 - 3 team I've seen.

fair enough. I have to admit though, I am impressed with the season stats when extrapolated like that. The only nits are the % completion rate (ESP on 3rd down) and of course the % wins.

What is his 3rd down completion percentage? And compared with other starting QBs?

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:

Originally posted by Joecool:
OK, here we go...how about these 16 game stats:

Percentage: 62.8
Yards: 4,092
Average per completion: 7.1
Touchdowns: 26
Interceptions: 16
Rating: 87.5

Can you guess who started 8 games and if those 8 games were projected to 16, these would be his stats?


2008 "Noodle Arm" in an offense that concentrated on his strengths.


Consider this thread defunked.

That was in a Martz offense...how is that a fair comparison?

-9fA

It's not, but I'm just saying one cannot project stats, especially when those stats are from really good games and really bad games. It's just too inconsistent.

Also, you're right, it isn't Martz offense, so what makes us think Raye can turn a terrible offense that had more talent than last year into one better than Martz can. Even if Alex plays better, I think Raye is a mediocre style of OC who doesn't work hard enough to get his players prepared.

OK, so those numbers are pretty similar to Alex's 2009 year. So answer me this: Why do you hate Alex and love Hill since their numbers are pretty similar?

If you are gonna ask why we think Alex is better than Hill even though the stats look the same, we will answer because he has a better arm, better mobility in the pocket and is younger with a bigger upside.

Originally posted by kronik:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:

Originally posted by Joecool:
OK, here we go...how about these 16 game stats:

Percentage: 62.8
Yards: 4,092
Average per completion: 7.1
Touchdowns: 26
Interceptions: 16
Rating: 87.5

Can you guess who started 8 games and if those 8 games were projected to 16, these would be his stats?


2008 "Noodle Arm" in an offense that concentrated on his strengths.


Consider this thread defunked.

That was in a Martz offense...how is that a fair comparison?

-9fA

It's not, but I'm just saying one cannot project stats, especially when those stats are from really good games and really bad games. It's just too inconsistent.

Also, you're right, it isn't Martz offense, so what makes us think Raye can turn a terrible offense that had more talent than last year into one better than Martz can. Even if Alex plays better, I think Raye is a mediocre style of OC who doesn't work hard enough to get his players prepared.

OK, so those numbers are pretty similar to Alex's 2009 year. So answer me this: Why do you hate Alex and love Hill since their numbers are pretty similar?

If you are gonna ask why we think Alex is better than Hill even though the stats look the same, we will answer because he has a better arm, better mobility in the pocket and is younger with a bigger upside.

Better arm? Hill in an offense that focused on the QB had just as much yards per completion.

Better mobility? Hill dwarfs Alex Smith in mobility and yards per rush. ALEX IS NOT A MOBILE QB or he has yet to show it.

I will give you younger but you don't know about the upside. Their stats were similar, so both could have an upside.

Alex has underperformed compared to a guy like Hill, with less "talent" who performs just as well.


I only defend Hill because he got snubbed and hated on while performing just as good in normal conditions and much better in pressure conditions than Alex Smith. THAT is the only reason why I defend him. NOT because I think he is the franchise or some great QB. Only because he got snubbed and Alex Smith gets the double standard of not having WR...

Originally posted by Bluefalcon61:
What is his 3rd down completion percentage? And compared with other starting QBs?

ouch. uh....er...lordy lordy.... uh... let's change the subject.

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by Bluefalcon61:
What is his 3rd down completion percentage? And compared with other starting QBs?

ouch. uh....er...lordy lordy.... uh... let's change the subject.

He needs better WR's.

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by boomer49er:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by boomer49er:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:

Originally posted by Joecool:
OK, here we go...how about these 16 game stats:

Percentage: 62.8
Yards: 4,092
Average per completion: 7.1
Touchdowns: 26
Interceptions: 16
Rating: 87.5

Can you guess who started 8 games and if those 8 games were projected to 16, these would be his stats?


2008 "Noodle Arm" in an offense that concentrated on his strengths.


Consider this thread defunked.

That was in a Martz offense...how is that a fair comparison?

-9fA

It's not, but I'm just saying one cannot project stats, especially when those stats are from really good games and really bad games. It's just too inconsistent.

Also, you're right, it isn't Martz offense, so what makes us think Raye can turn a terrible offense that had more talent than last year into one better than Martz can. Even if Alex plays better, I think Raye is a mediocre style of OC who doesn't work hard enough to get his players prepared.

I definitely agree with your first paragraph. I just didn't understand that the point that you were trying to make. I think the OP knows that it's not a good idea to extrapolate statistics.

I feel that the issue is not the offense, it's the playcalling. For example, in Hostler's case, it was clearly the offense.

Often times, there were several WTF Martz playcalls last year as well until Singletary reeled him in. I'm hoping now that Smith will be able to reach a comfort level with the offense, that he'll be given a little more leeway in determining the plays that are suitable to be run. Whether this will happen or not, who knows..

-9fA

I just don't think Raye will be the reason why this team wins. I feel we win in Spite of Raye. It just doesn't seem like he prepares or studies much. Most of his interviews always point to, "Let us see what happens in the game and we will make adjustments from there." That's a mediocre mentality and it's a lazy mentality. I really hope Singletary is prepping our QB coach to take over. Raye deserves his respect but I think he lacks the energy to prepare this offense to be a top rated offense.

I seem to remember you Smith haters being ready to crown Hill last year, so is it a double standard?

I could use an excuse and say what if Raye does the run-run-pass offense next year as Hill converted from Martz passing to Raye's run-run-pass (Hill got snubbed) but I will just say that the "Smith Haters" are using our incorrect projection of Hill to be a lesson that stats don't project until they are logged in as official.

So you're using the fact that Hill had to change offenses as the reason why he failed? Yet you ignore the fast that Smith has changed offenses every year and that this will be the first year that he's had the oppertunity to spend an entire offseason in the same offense that he had ran the year prior?

That's not even close to what I said. I said what if Raye goes back to run-run-pass next year and puts Smith in difficult situation as Hill was under early this year. So, Smith, as was Hill, would go from a QB friendly style to a RB friendly style. I'm sure Smith doesn't perform as well being under Center in a run-run-pass, right? That's what position Hill was in.

If the offensive line is doing its job, that offense will work, that is basically what Turner ran when he was here. Run to set up the play action pass. The myth that Smith can't play under center is just that, he did it in 06 and did pretty well, and has thrown a few TD's from under center this year. Hill struggled in the offense because he couldn't get the ball to the wideouts and the defense was stacking 8-9 in the box and run blitzing and Shaun just flat out doesn't have the tools to make them pay. Smith being in there has made the defenses back off a bit allowing Frank a little more room to run. What everyone wants from Smith now is a consistent level of play, going into the second season with the same coordinator should help alot.

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by boomer49er:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by boomer49er:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:

Originally posted by Joecool:
OK, here we go...how about these 16 game stats:

Percentage: 62.8
Yards: 4,092
Average per completion: 7.1
Touchdowns: 26
Interceptions: 16
Rating: 87.5

Can you guess who started 8 games and if those 8 games were projected to 16, these would be his stats?


2008 "Noodle Arm" in an offense that concentrated on his strengths.


Consider this thread defunked.

That was in a Martz offense...how is that a fair comparison?

-9fA

It's not, but I'm just saying one cannot project stats, especially when those stats are from really good games and really bad games. It's just too inconsistent.

Also, you're right, it isn't Martz offense, so what makes us think Raye can turn a terrible offense that had more talent than last year into one better than Martz can. Even if Alex plays better, I think Raye is a mediocre style of OC who doesn't work hard enough to get his players prepared.

I definitely agree with your first paragraph. I just didn't understand that the point that you were trying to make. I think the OP knows that it's not a good idea to extrapolate statistics.

I feel that the issue is not the offense, it's the playcalling. For example, in Hostler's case, it was clearly the offense.

Often times, there were several WTF Martz playcalls last year as well until Singletary reeled him in. I'm hoping now that Smith will be able to reach a comfort level with the offense, that he'll be given a little more leeway in determining the plays that are suitable to be run. Whether this will happen or not, who knows..

-9fA

I just don't think Raye will be the reason why this team wins. I feel we win in Spite of Raye. It just doesn't seem like he prepares or studies much. Most of his interviews always point to, "Let us see what happens in the game and we will make adjustments from there." That's a mediocre mentality and it's a lazy mentality. I really hope Singletary is prepping our QB coach to take over. Raye deserves his respect but I think he lacks the energy to prepare this offense to be a top rated offense.

I seem to remember you Smith haters being ready to crown Hill last year, so is it a double standard?

I could use an excuse and say what if Raye does the run-run-pass offense next year as Hill converted from Martz passing to Raye's run-run-pass (Hill got snubbed) but I will just say that the "Smith Haters" are using our incorrect projection of Hill to be a lesson that stats don't project until they are logged in as official.

So you're using the fact that Hill had to change offenses as the reason why he failed? Yet you ignore the fast that Smith has changed offenses every year and that this will be the first year that he's had the oppertunity to spend an entire offseason in the same offense that he had ran the year prior?

That's not even close to what I said. I said what if Raye goes back to run-run-pass next year and puts Smith in difficult situation as Hill was under early this year. So, Smith, as was Hill, would go from a QB friendly style to a RB friendly style. I'm sure Smith doesn't perform as well being under Center in a run-run-pass, right? That's what position Hill was in.

If the offensive line is doing its job, that offense will work, that is basically what Turner ran when he was here. Run to set up the play action pass. The myth that Smith can't play under center is just that, he did it in 06 and did pretty well, and has thrown a few TD's from under center this year. Hill struggled in the offense because he couldn't get the ball to the wideouts and the defense was stacking 8-9 in the box and run blitzing and Shaun just flat out doesn't have the tools to make them pay. Smith being in there has made the defenses back off a bit allowing Frank a little more room to run. What everyone wants from Smith now is a consistent level of play, going into the second season with the same coordinator should help alot.

Of course the offense will work if the OL is doing its job. That's not my point.

The bold is false which is why I keep defunking it by giving you Hill's performance in Martz's offense, an offense Hill averaged 7.1 YPC. People keep ignoring this.

Can you just acknowledge what Hill did as a QB throwing to WR's in Martz's offense? Is it THAT difficult? That's what I mean that Smith gets all this love but everyone wants to close their eyes to what Hill did when he had the offense catered to what he does well.

They performed about the same when put in a type of offense that is comfortable for them. This is a compliment to both but people still refuse to give Hill that credit.

FYI: Smith only had a couple of good games in 2006. Let's not falsify his stats with what really happened.

When it comes to statistic talk, only real numbers are worth talking about. Not imaginary numbers if someone was playing in games that they weren't.

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by taney71:

Originally posted by Bluefalcon61:
When he proves he can be a big game QB and bail his team out when he needs to, I'll stop busting his balls.

Otherwise this is all just fantasy football stat fodder.

I'm guessing then you would bash Tony Romo and other young QBs who haven't done that either?

Are you talking about the same Tony Romo who has 9 games this year with a passer rate over 100? The one who killed the Eagles last week?

Is that the same romo who couldn't win in december?