Has Alex Smith proved to be the 49er's QB of the future?

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

I would like to make one point or bring up one concern. In a Shotgun/Spread offense, is a 90 rating, which is the desired rating, considered par? I haven't looked, I'm just asking or bringing it up because he will most likely be in an offense that is geared to pad his stats.

I'm not satisified with a 90 rating from the shotgun but I'm not satisfied with the inordinately high number of drops the 49ers had this year. Four more yesterday. Davis led the league in drops.

To repeat myself, I think much of it is young, inexperienced receivers and an offense that completely changed at mid-season. It takes time to develop that understanding between QB and receivers. Once the regular season starts, there just is not much time to work on all those basics. That is what TC and pre-season is all about. Of course Crabtree missed all of that and Smith missed much of TC and pre-season with the thumb injury and then worked only with second-string as scout QB up until Hill was benched. All of that put the passing offense at an extreme disadvantage.

I agree with you on developing tendencies with receivers. For example, knowing where the receiver likes the ball in certain routes or him and the receiver completely understanding what each one will do if the route looks as if it has been covered such as flattening out a post route or running the curl and sliding into the open area.

One thing I forgot to add that annoys me is Alex not seeing the blitz from his visual side. I can understand the blind side blitz but there are too many times it seems as if he doesn't notice the front side blitz until it's too late. I see a lot of QB's easily dodge a front side blitz. Of course, you won't dodge them all, but he just doesn't make a guy miss.

One thing that is for sure over rated is his mobility. He has decent speed but I don't think he's very mobile in the pocket.

Smith is an incredibly slow learner. Even Raye said he was anal, and who better to diagnose that? If he was Nate Davis people would be making fun of his intelligence, how he couldn't learn stuff, etc.

Next year is finally THE year we get to find out. Nobody, please, please, give him any more time than that, the most patient handling of a QB in history. Stop it next year. If he is good, great. If he is Smith as we know him, stop it, stop it!

Don't blame the OL, the coaching, nothing. If he gets hurt, I cease to care. Too bad. Try elsewhere. Smith might help society by doing something else in life if that is the case. Build the world's best bridge, cure baldness, teach kids, play with a hot wife. End it one way or the other.

If even once he rolls out to his right and throws high to someone, end it on the spot. Then, immediately. No more of this.

If the ball gets batted down. Sit, sit now, end it. Zero tolerance. It has been a LOT of years.

Raye's offense sucks? Of course it does. Call an audible, be a man, screw him. What is Raye going to do, come stumbling down the stairs and swing feebly at him? Bench him? Sing might actually welcome Smith taking charge for once, don't you think? I'll bet he would smile and send Smith back out and tell Raye to go back to calling random plays and let Smith audible.

He is supposed to be smart? Show it. If he can't figure out Raye's offense, with, what, four different plays or something, then maybe there is no hope that some genius innovator is going to come in with a bunch of plays, reads and variations and somehow help him.

Oh, what about continuity? Friggin deal with it. Learn new plays and formations. Guess what, QBs right out of high school come in to play for mighty schools in front of 100,000 people and understand the plays thought up by high-powered coordinators.

Good grief, the local little high school here runs the spread, no-huddle, lonesome ends, and a whole pile of plays. The QB is a sophomore and they score 60 points a game. Jeez, Smith would probably be a 25 year old high school player sitting just one more year to learn the offense. Good grief, end this one way or the other.

Smith can't figure out the most basic and least innovative offense in history?. What is with this hesitation, this oh, his footwork is off and so he throws the ball into the hands of defenders.

So, put down paper footprints like it was a friggin dance lesson. You know, left, right, left, right. Get a retired drill sergeant to teach him fancy marching routines. How about river dancing lessons? Get that sweaty river dance guy to show him how to place his feet in the right spot.

Staring down receivers. Still, after all these years, one of the most basic things? Why? Can't remember where the receivers are headed and you have to look? They run on virtual dotted lines. They don't randomly run to wherever they see a pretty flower.

Raye's plays, again, are hard? Marz's were. Not all QBs or receivers can run that offense. But Raye's? Come on. After a year's exposure to Marz how in the world can you not grasp Raye?

No more of this. Smith was hurt. Ok, so study the offense. What would that take, what, an hour and a half? Crabtree wasn't even given a playbook and he ran right out there and seems to run in the correct direction and all that.

Smith was dissed by Nolan. That was stupid and unprofessional. Everyone knows about it. That was an brief episode in Smith's long football career. The Warriors have to deal with Nelson. Nelson is a pathological expert in screwing over players. If Nolan went to the Warriors and tried that crap they would just laugh at his lightweight efforts.

So, next year is IT! One way or the other for Smith. One way or the other for Raye, maybe even for Sing. It ends, there is that hope that all will turn out well, that Smith will be a top tier QB, that Raye will be gone, that Sing will embrace the future and that, secretly, the stadium has been built at a secret location, disguised as a Super WalMart.

I can hardly wait. It will be a turning point in the history of the Niners like none other since Walsh quit. It will be exciting.

^^ Agreed Joecool.

Against the Rams, they sent many blitzers from the edge. What Alex needed to do was to scan the WHOLE field from sideline to sideline after the snap. He didn't do this and often times, the play was dead.

I hope that this is corrected.

-9fA

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

I would like to make one point or bring up one concern. In a Shotgun/Spread offense, is a 90 rating, which is the desired rating, considered par? I haven't looked, I'm just asking or bringing it up because he will most likely be in an offense that is geared to pad his stats.

I'm not satisified with a 90 rating from the shotgun but I'm not satisfied with the inordinately high number of drops the 49ers had this year. Four more yesterday. Davis led the league in drops.

To repeat myself, I think much of it is young, inexperienced receivers and an offense that completely changed at mid-season. It takes time to develop that understanding between QB and receivers. Once the regular season starts, there just is not much time to work on all those basics. That is what TC and pre-season is all about. Of course Crabtree missed all of that and Smith missed much of TC and pre-season with the thumb injury and then worked only with second-string as scout QB up until Hill was benched. All of that put the passing offense at an extreme disadvantage.

I agree with you on developing tendencies with receivers. For example, knowing where the receiver likes the ball in certain routes or him and the receiver completely understanding what each one will do if the route looks as if it has been covered such as flattening out a post route or running the curl and sliding into the open area.

One thing I forgot to add that annoys me is Alex not seeing the blitz from his visual side. I can understand the blind side blitz but there are too many times it seems as if he doesn't notice the front side blitz until it's too late. I see a lot of QB's easily dodge a front side blitz. Of course, you won't dodge them all, but he just doesn't make a guy miss.

One thing that is for sure over rated is his mobility. He has decent speed but I don't think he's very mobile in the pocket.

Pocket presence is related to comfort lever between QB and receivers. If the pocket is inconsistent, or only exist on a inconsistent basis, it is hard to develop a feel for it. If the OL pass protection improves next year, I would expect Smith to become better at using it. For now, so much of the time it has been so shaky, I find it hard to be overly critical of that part. As I said, in yesterday's game, he used the pocket very well when it was there.

He's the Deberg to our future Montana, whoever he may be.

Guy might put up numbers but he's not a winner.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

I would like to make one point or bring up one concern. In a Shotgun/Spread offense, is a 90 rating, which is the desired rating, considered par? I haven't looked, I'm just asking or bringing it up because he will most likely be in an offense that is geared to pad his stats.

I'm not satisified with a 90 rating from the shotgun but I'm not satisfied with the inordinately high number of drops the 49ers had this year. Four more yesterday. Davis led the league in drops.

To repeat myself, I think much of it is young, inexperienced receivers and an offense that completely changed at mid-season. It takes time to develop that understanding between QB and receivers. Once the regular season starts, there just is not much time to work on all those basics. That is what TC and pre-season is all about. Of course Crabtree missed all of that and Smith missed much of TC and pre-season with the thumb injury and then worked only with second-string as scout QB up until Hill was benched. All of that put the passing offense at an extreme disadvantage.

I agree with you on developing tendencies with receivers. For example, knowing where the receiver likes the ball in certain routes or him and the receiver completely understanding what each one will do if the route looks as if it has been covered such as flattening out a post route or running the curl and sliding into the open area.

One thing I forgot to add that annoys me is Alex not seeing the blitz from his visual side. I can understand the blind side blitz but there are too many times it seems as if he doesn't notice the front side blitz until it's too late. I see a lot of QB's easily dodge a front side blitz. Of course, you won't dodge them all, but he just doesn't make a guy miss.

One thing that is for sure over rated is his mobility. He has decent speed but I don't think he's very mobile in the pocket.

Pocket presence is related to comfort lever between QB and receivers. If the pocket is inconsistent, or only exist on a inconsistent basis, it is hard to develop a feel for it. If the OL pass protection improves next year, I would expect Smith to become better at using it. For now, so much of the time it has been so shaky, I find it hard to be overly critical of that part. As I said, in yesterday's game, he used the pocket very well when it was there.

I don't think seeing and knowing the blitzer coming from the front side has anything to do with QB/Receiver relationship if the QB knows there's no hot route and no time for even a 7 yard pass. That's not pocket presence, that's freezing and not having any instincts on the fact that he needs run or pump fake or something. When there is an untouched blocker from the front side, most QBs make an attempt to do something with their feet. THAT has nothing to do with his WRs or OL. If more rushers are coming than blockers and there's no hot route, then WTF is he doing standing there AND knowing the blitz is coming right in front of him?

Originally posted by Ceadderman:

Originally posted by D_Niner:

Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

He also had a QB rate of 57.2 in 2007. (His pre injure 2007 rate was 67.39 and post injury was 49.98.). Either way, he was regressing (sophomore slump?).

It took him 3 years to go from 74.8 to 81.5 (a 6.7 point improvement). I think projecting a 8.5+ point improvement in one off-season is a bit unrealistic. I'm not saying it's not possible; however, it's very unlikely.

If someone approached you in the past offseason, and said that they guaranteed that Smith would average 3 TDs' a game have a 300 yard game and post 90 level Passer Ratings what would you have said?

Probably this...

"I'm not saying it's not possible; however, it's very unlikely."

Now I'm not pickin on ya D, you're good peoples. But honestly if someone had said the same thing to me I would have run to Vegas and placed a couple bets on the best possible game that that could happen in spread be damned.

Oh and that we would not lose game in landslide fashion as well.

~Ceadder

No, you're 100% right on with that one. But; Alex didn't average 3 TD's a game, he's just under 2. And, he only went above a 90 QB rate on 40% of his starts (and it's the same % that he was below a QB rate of 70).

But, by the same token, if you told me Alex was going to have a 300 + yard game that we would still lose, I'd have said that it's very unlikely as well.

All the Smith suppporters always point to all the reasons why Smith isn't 100% at fault for losing games, but I look at the other side of the argument and ask When has Smith been the reason we won a game. We can point to numerous games where Gore was the sole reason we won games. Until Smith steps up and leads the team to wins I still have serious questions.

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

I would like to make one point or bring up one concern. In a Shotgun/Spread offense, is a 90 rating, which is the desired rating, considered par? I haven't looked, I'm just asking or bringing it up because he will most likely be in an offense that is geared to pad his stats.

I'm not satisified with a 90 rating from the shotgun but I'm not satisfied with the inordinately high number of drops the 49ers had this year. Four more yesterday. Davis led the league in drops.

To repeat myself, I think much of it is young, inexperienced receivers and an offense that completely changed at mid-season. It takes time to develop that understanding between QB and receivers. Once the regular season starts, there just is not much time to work on all those basics. That is what TC and pre-season is all about. Of course Crabtree missed all of that and Smith missed much of TC and pre-season with the thumb injury and then worked only with second-string as scout QB up until Hill was benched. All of that put the passing offense at an extreme disadvantage.

I agree with you on developing tendencies with receivers. For example, knowing where the receiver likes the ball in certain routes or him and the receiver completely understanding what each one will do if the route looks as if it has been covered such as flattening out a post route or running the curl and sliding into the open area.

One thing I forgot to add that annoys me is Alex not seeing the blitz from his visual side. I can understand the blind side blitz but there are too many times it seems as if he doesn't notice the front side blitz until it's too late. I see a lot of QB's easily dodge a front side blitz. Of course, you won't dodge them all, but he just doesn't make a guy miss.

One thing that is for sure over rated is his mobility. He has decent speed but I don't think he's very mobile in the pocket.

Pocket presence is related to comfort lever between QB and receivers. If the pocket is inconsistent, or only exist on a inconsistent basis, it is hard to develop a feel for it. If the OL pass protection improves next year, I would expect Smith to become better at using it. For now, so much of the time it has been so shaky, I find it hard to be overly critical of that part. As I said, in yesterday's game, he used the pocket very well when it was there.

I don't think seeing and knowing the blitzer coming from the front side has anything to do with QB/Receiver relationship if the QB knows there's no hot route and no time for even a 7 yard pass. That's not pocket presence, that's freezing and not having any instincts on the fact that he needs run or pump fake or something. When there is an untouched blocker from the front side, most QBs make an attempt to do something with their feet. THAT has nothing to do with his WRs or OL. If more rushers are coming than blockers and there's no hot route, then WTF is he doing standing there AND knowing the blitz is coming right in front of him?

The Rams frequently faked an A/B blitz (or sent just one) to keep the guards occupied, then brought the blitz from the corner. (The Rams mixed this up very well yesterday.) This limits the QB to only one side to roll to and takes away the quick middle as well. This is when the TE and the slot receiver MUST read the blitz and adjust the route.

In the first half the Rams just OWNED the LOS with this tactic. Once the 49ers went to the shotgun in the second half, the OL seemed to settle in and diagnose the middle blitz packages which freed the OTs to do a better job on the outside blitz.

But yes, Smith could help himself more with movement.

With him and Raye back next year this offense is scary..................














...................Frighteningly awful

Originally posted by 9er2631:
All the Smith suppporters always point to all the reasons why Smith isn't 100% at fault for losing games, but I look at the other side of the argument and ask When has Smith been the reason we won a game. We can point to numerous games where Gore was the sole reason we won games. Until Smith steps up and leads the team to wins I still have serious questions.

Yes. It isn't about having everything perfect before you can make an assesment if someone is good. That is not going to happen anytime soon. The ultimate excuse is one that will never be solved. You can use it forever, and continually fall back to it to present a vague defense for lack of success.

Originally posted by LambdaChi49:

Originally posted by D_Niner:
Question for those of you who voted to give him more time....

How much longer do you think it will take?

Just as a reference, it's taken him 3 years to improve his QB rate from the mid 70's to the low 80's.

Well it took 40 healthy starts to get into the 80s.

40 starts = about 2.5 years.



I'm pretty confident that with an off season of building trust, timing, and chemistry with his recievers, drafting/signing some DECENT (not asking for all pro) o-line man...Alex will definitely be a solid and good QB. Frankly, I thought he'd be a disaster when entered into the line up this season. Ok well not a "disaster" but not 81.5 rating with 18tds and 12 ints in 10.5 games. Thats not amazing obviously but just better than I thought considering our line, Crabtree coming in late, etc.

Its logical to assume that with a solid off season, we should go 10-6 and make it into the play offs and Alex SHOULD be successful no excuses.

As always, you are hedging your bet on Alex by saying "SHOULD" instead of "WILL". That uncertainty is what is gnawing at a lot of Niners fans. That is the multi-million question that Sing and Scotty must answer. How much uncertainty do you put up with before you make a move for the long term?

Originally posted by djfullshred:

Originally posted by 9er2631:
All the Smith suppporters always point to all the reasons why Smith isn't 100% at fault for losing games, but I look at the other side of the argument and ask When has Smith been the reason we won a game. We can point to numerous games where Gore was the sole reason we won games. Until Smith steps up and leads the team to wins I still have serious questions.

Yes. It isn't about having everything perfect before you can make an assesment if someone is good. That is not going to happen anytime soon. The ultimate excuse is one that will never be solved. You can use it forever, and continually fall back to it to present a vague defense for lack of success.

This is one thing people keep overlooking. There will never be a perfect situation as every team has OL/WR/TE/RB/...issues. However, on those teams, their QB will make plays to get the win as Hill did for us or as Gradkowski(spelling) did or just about most QBs. All we try to do is excuse repeated tipped balls, INTs, and terrible play when down by a TD or less.

This line gave up 1 sack every 17 attempts with Smith in the game. If you want to point to him being pressured more, well, our teams is ranked 19 in pressures...I wouldn't say we are in the worst situation, yet our QB shows us less when we need it than most others.

I will be an interesting year next year to see if he can will us to some wins.

Here's the key thing for me with Alex Smith:

There is NO other realistic option for next season than to give Smith every available chance to succeed. Right now the 49ers finally have some young offensive talent with the potential to be pretty good next year. Crabtree and Davis are the obvious one, but I haven't given up on Morgan or Hill either although a true speed guy would be nice.

The real key is Frank Gore. He will be going into this fifth season, which means he will be already past the average career length for a RB. The 49ers cannot afford to start experimenting with a rookie or castaway FA from some other team while using up the remaining fuel in Frank's tank. (Frank the tank. get it?)

If Smith makes only a 20% improvement next year, he will easily exceed what could be expected of a rookie (Nate Davis is still a rookie).

There are NO realistic options in FA at QB. In this league, there are only 10 teams that are truly settled at QB. (Warner and McNabb are at the end of their careers) Only 12 overall had a rating of 90 or better. The rest of the teams have players like Matt Hasselback or David Garrard filling in until the Savior arrives. Smith will finish with a rating of about 82 which puts him #19 in the league. Considering the very high number of drops he had, his rating would go much higher if the drops were reduced to only average.

However, rating isn't my main point. Any other option, would require yet another building year in which Frank Gore would, once again, be expected to be the main weapon on offense. For a guy entering his fifth season, who absorbs as much punishment as his style draws, that would be inviting disaster.

No, Alex Smith as the pre-assigned starter for 2010 is the only logical option. With improvements in OL play and some first-string time with the young receivers through OTAs, training camp and pre-season, he will be good enough to take this team to the playoffs next year.

If by future, you mean the first week of training camp, then yes.