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Has Alex Smith proved to be the 49er's QB of the future?

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Has Alex Smith proved to be the 49er's QB of the future?

Originally posted by D_Niner:
Question for those of you who voted to give him more time....

How much longer do you think it will take?

Just as a reference, it's taken him 3 years to improve his QB rate from the mid 70's to the low 80's.

Well it took 40 healthy starts to get into the 80s.

40 starts = about 2.5 years.



I'm pretty confident that with an off season of building trust, timing, and chemistry with his recievers, drafting/signing some DECENT (not asking for all pro) o-line man...Alex will definitely be a solid and good QB. Frankly, I thought he'd be a disaster when entered into the line up this season. Ok well not a "disaster" but not 81.5 rating with 18tds and 12 ints in 10.5 games. Thats not amazing obviously but just better than I thought considering our line, Crabtree coming in late, etc.

Its logical to assume that with a solid off season, we should go 10-6 and make it into the play offs and Alex SHOULD be successful no excuses.
  • susweel
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Get Mike Vick !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[ Edited by susweel on Jan 4, 2010 at 10:33 AM ]
Originally posted by Afrikan:
I also keep hearing about how Alex came in half way through the season and shouldn't really be judged....and that next year is the year he should be judged

this is what I heard before this season and into training camp....

it's not our fault that Alex got beat out by Shaun Hill.....and we had to wait alittle longer before we got to see Alex again.

after watching Alex these past 4 games, can any of you really see Alex improving drastically next year....because that is what he is going to need to do, if we want to make the playoffs and win games as well....

he looked HORRIBLE against the Eagles to keep our playoff hopes alive......and has not looked good against the 2 worse teams in the League in back to back weeks......and one of those games was at Home.

I mean really, step back for a second and look at the big picture......I know it is the best case scenario for our team if Alex becomes a great QB, but wishing can only take you so far....imo, it is not right to bash posters who refuse to wish along, not that I care

Observing the pre-season, neither QB could be assessed adequately. I never had the opportunity to watch any of the practices either. Just reading Barrows and Maiacco's reports neither QB distinguished themselves. Singletary would never remove Hill as starter because of how he finished the 08 season, this was simply out of respect, it was also the professional thing to do. You asked, can Alex improve from this season, I don't know. I agree with some that he needs to improve his touch, I also want him show some emotion out there (disgust, or even anger when he misses a throw or a receiver drops a ball). You brought up the Eagles, but I was wondering if the team in general was prepped to handle the blitz. I'm hoping still, because we really have no alternatives (unless you know a top flight QB will be available after the season). People have brought up Davis, but are we ready to wait another 2-4 years of grooming (and if he doesn't pan out, then what?). I see promise, because of his connection with V Davis, because of Crabtree and Hill. I see promise because he connected with B Jones deep. For now I'm counting on the continuity with system and personnel and seeing where it takes this team.
Originally posted by dj43:
After completing my OL analysis (different thread) yesterday, I was much more encouraged with his pocket presence and ability to put the ball where it needs to be. Also, a full off-season with the young receivers will help everyone a lot. Far too many times the receivers did not run routes consistently or deep enough for first downs.

Smith MAY get to the point where he is good enough to overcome all these other deficiencies, but for now, he can't throw from a pocket that doesn't exist and he can't run routes for the receivers. What he does need to do is learn to keep his passes lower. That is one thing that still bothers me.

Still much work to be done in coordinating the offense. The radical change it went through this year after it became obvious the OL couldn't be a power running line, makes it far too difficult to decide see the end of the tunnel from here.

The bold, I totally agree with and would like to add a couple of other things. He REALLY needs to work on his pass to the 5-8 yard crossing route. He must hit the receiver on stride more often than he has done.

The second thing he MUST work on is the tendency to not step into some of his deeper throws. It seems as though he wants to get the ball out there too fast and rushes the throw. He needs more knee bend on those.


As for the other things such as shifting in the pocket, seeing passing lanes and moving his throw into those lanes rather than trying to throw through the line, he will get with more comfort.

So far, he has shown enough to be given a complete look and chance to help this team win. However, if people keep posting on here that he has all this "talent" and is playing like a top level QB, then believe me, I will be the first to post his many, many inconsistencies.
Originally posted by Afrikan:
I also keep hearing about how Alex came in half way through the season and shouldn't really be judged....and that next year is the year he should be judged

this is what I heard before this season and into training camp....

it's not our fault that Alex got beat out by Shaun Hill.....and we had to wait alittle longer before we got to see Alex again.

after watching Alex these past 4 games, can any of you really see Alex improving drastically next year....because that is what he is going to need to do, if we want to make the playoffs and win games as well....

he looked HORRIBLE against the Eagles to keep our playoff hopes alive......and has not looked good against the 2 worse teams in the League in back to back weeks......and one of those games was at Home.

I mean really, step back for a second and look at the big picture......I know it is the best case scenario for our team if Alex becomes a great QB, but wishing can only take you so far....imo, it is not right to bash posters who refuse to wish along, not that I care

this
Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

More numbers...Niners were 5-3 in second half of the season. One loss v. Philly I put squarely on Smith. He played decently in Green Bay, but play calling was too conservative out the gate. Hanging that one on Singletary/Raye. The loss to Seattle was not on Smith. He put the team in position to win in the 4th qtr, but Davis dropped a TD and Gore fumbled deep in Seahawks territory.

So, we gave one away to an inferrior opponent and lost two to teams that, at this point, are better than us. My opinion is firming. Incremental improvement from Smith and a better OL in 2010 equals playoffs. I have nothing against Nate Davis. I like what he showed in preseason. Maybe he'll grab the reigns and make the decision for the team, but if Alex remains QB, I still think the Niners are a playoff team next year.
F*CK NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Originally posted by D_Niner:
Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

He also had a QB rate of 57.2 in 2007. (His pre injure 2007 rate was 67.39 and post injury was 49.98.). Either way, he was regressing (sophomore slump?).

It took him 3 years to go from 74.8 to 81.5 (a 6.7 point improvement). I think projecting a 8.5+ point improvement in one off-season is a bit unrealistic. I'm not saying it's not possible; however, it's very unlikely.

If someone approached you in the past offseason, and said that they guaranteed that Smith would average 3 TDs' a game have a 300 yard game and post 90 level Passer Ratings what would you have said?

Probably this...

"I'm not saying it's not possible; however, it's very unlikely."

Now I'm not pickin on ya D, you're good peoples. But honestly if someone had said the same thing to me I would have run to Vegas and placed a couple bets on the best possible game that that could happen in spread be damned.

Oh and that we would not lose game in landslide fashion as well.

~Ceadder
Originally posted by susweel:
Get Mike Vick !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • dj43
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Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by dj43:
After completing my OL analysis (different thread) yesterday, I was much more encouraged with his pocket presence and ability to put the ball where it needs to be. Also, a full off-season with the young receivers will help everyone a lot. Far too many times the receivers did not run routes consistently or deep enough for first downs.

Smith MAY get to the point where he is good enough to overcome all these other deficiencies, but for now, he can't throw from a pocket that doesn't exist and he can't run routes for the receivers. What he does need to do is learn to keep his passes lower. That is one thing that still bothers me.

Still much work to be done in coordinating the offense. The radical change it went through this year after it became obvious the OL couldn't be a power running line, makes it far too difficult to decide see the end of the tunnel from here.

The bold, I totally agree with and would like to add a couple of other things. He REALLY needs to work on his pass to the 5-8 yard crossing route. He must hit the receiver on stride more often than he has done.

The second thing he MUST work on is the tendency to not step into some of his deeper throws. It seems as though he wants to get the ball out there too fast and rushes the throw. He needs more knee bend on those.


As for the other things such as shifting in the pocket, seeing passing lanes and moving his throw into those lanes rather than trying to throw through the line, he will get with more comfort.

So far, he has shown enough to be given a complete look and chance to help this team win. However, if people keep posting on here that he has all this "talent" and is playing like a top level QB, then believe me, I will be the first to post his many, many inconsistencies.
We are in overall agreement.

I will say he has looked better on those crossing routes. The problem, to my eye, is that frequently the routes are not being run consistently. Far too many times I have seen Vernon Davis break off routes, sometimes just because the umpire is in the way. He needs to learn to read the umpire and use him as an asset instead of an obstacle.

Finally, I was very impressed with Smith's decison to step up in the pocket yesterday. As I did my OL analysis, I did not see a single time when there was a pocket there, that he did not take advantage of it. In fact, on the long pass completion to Crabtree, he hung in there until the last split second to throw off his back foot, and still had enough on the ball the complete it.

Still work to be done but the closer I look, the more hope I have.

I don't really think he has
Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

I would like to make one point or bring up one concern. In a Shotgun/Spread offense, is a 90 rating, which is the desired rating, considered par? I haven't looked, I'm just asking or bringing it up because he will most likely be in an offense that is geared to pad his stats.
Originally posted by BSofSF:
Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

More numbers...Niners were 5-3 in second half of the season. One loss v. Philly I put squarely on Smith. He played decently in Green Bay, but play calling was too conservative out the gate. Hanging that one on Singletary/Raye. The loss to Seattle was not on Smith. He put the team in position to win in the 4th qtr, but Davis dropped a TD and Gore fumbled deep in Seahawks territory.

So, we gave one away to an inferrior opponent and lost two to teams that, at this point, are better than us. My opinion is firming. Incremental improvement from Smith and a better OL in 2010 equals playoffs. I have nothing against Nate Davis. I like what he showed in preseason. Maybe he'll grab the reigns and make the decision for the team, but if Alex remains QB, I still think the Niners are a playoff team next year.

Don't forget that he was PWNING the Shattle D in the 1st quarter and got ROBBED of a TD by the blind Zebras who don't know what Defensive holding is. And Walker almost caught freakin ball anyway.

Tree dropped on that was completely catchable it was so perfect I had to double check that it was Alex that threw it. And then Davis and his drop too.

That was just a travesty of a game for a guy that had to prove he is the guy. I can't blame him for that loss either.

~Ceadder
  • dj43
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Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by BSofSF:
QB rating is a comprehensive statistic and a pretty fair appraisal of performance. The following is Smith's QB rating over three seasons played (injury years tossed):

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2009: 81.5

I think we can project that, with continuity and improvement on the offensive line, Smith will ultimately plateau in the 90s, which would not make him elite, but put him in the top 10-12 QBs in the league.

Having a 26 years old QB in the top 1/3 of the league would be good enough, IMO. This assumes, of course, that he continues to improve, which is a prerequisite to keeping him as the starter. I think we need to quit obsessing about the next coming of Montana and Young. A good QB running a balanced attack with a smothering defense can win a Super Bowl.

I would like to make one point or bring up one concern. In a Shotgun/Spread offense, is a 90 rating, which is the desired rating, considered par? I haven't looked, I'm just asking or bringing it up because he will most likely be in an offense that is geared to pad his stats.
I'm not satisified with a 90 rating from the shotgun but I'm not satisfied with the inordinately high number of drops the 49ers had this year. Four more yesterday. Davis led the league in drops.

To repeat myself, I think much of it is young, inexperienced receivers and an offense that completely changed at mid-season. It takes time to develop that understanding between QB and receivers. Once the regular season starts, there just is not much time to work on all those basics. That is what TC and pre-season is all about. Of course Crabtree missed all of that and Smith missed much of TC and pre-season with the thumb injury and then worked only with second-string as scout QB up until Hill was benched. All of that put the passing offense at an extreme disadvantage.
Originally posted by GBNinerFan:
Originally posted by djfullshred:
No.

He doesn't totally suck, but whoever is going to be the starter has to move the sticks a lot more than what we have seen. I dont at all buy into the thoughts that all the problems are everyone else's fault like the OC O-line, & WRs, but not the QB. Hogwash.

Not all the problems, but the play, any play, starts with blocking. Bad blocking and things come more difficult.

As for him "moving the sticks", have you seen a lot of the play-calling on 3rd and longs? Screens, draws, etc. Sure, maybe if Alex did more on 1st and 2nd down, we wouldn't be in the 3rd and 8-9yd plus range, but it's not always on him.

Smith is 7/51 on 3rd and 8+ yards
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