What would you say...

Originally posted by Niners99:
or you could stop comparing the two, because they wouldve been the exact same things if their roles/situations were reversed. book it.

rodgers to the 49ers, smith to the packers. same draft slots.

Smith gets the 3 years behind Brett Favre to learn. Smith is part of a winning organization with alot of talent, and a solid coaching staff preaching a consistent message. Smith gets 3 years to learn, he steps in, immediately has Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Ryan Grant to help him out.

Rodgers on the other hand, goes to us. because of how dire our 2005 QB situation is, he gets thrown into the fire right away. his line is so bad hes on his back after 2 steps back on every play. every ball he throws is while running backwards/falling over. he then makes progress, but the very next year he is flattened by a 2 ton oaf, misses 2 seasons.

they have similar talent levels, it was ALL in the opportunity and situation. Smith got the big bucks, but he entered a disaster area of a team. rodgers free fell, but he ended up in a winning situation behind a HOF QB.

ive seen Rodgers play enough to see his flaws. he holds onto the ball too long. his line might suck, but he makes them look alot worse by not understanding the basics of quick thinking in the pocket.

Smith has so much experience flat on his back early on, i think hes now done a good job at learning how to protect the football, have that timer in his head to know when to get rid of the ball, and when its best to throw the ball away rather than force it.

I like this one, dude! Happy Christmas.

Originally posted by ruthless49er:
man usually your posts are logical and rational. this one though....

I dont care who the QB is as long as hes making the offense better. Smith has done that at times...others not so much. and im nto even talking about the dropped passes. I just think i give him at least one or two boneheaded mistakes per game. He hasnt learnt to win a game yet. thats what it basically comes down to which everyone is screaming about.

granted i feel a lot more comfortable with him back there then i was at any point since he got here. I think with him in there it gives us a chance to win the game at the end more so than a shaun hill or a rookie or a FA unless u get Green back in cause he knows Raye's system. still i dont have teh confidence in him to lead our team in the fourth quarter to put the winning points on the board.

until now hes proven that a) he can bring the team close b) he can manage a lead..for the most part.

the" c) he wins games on his arm" hasnt been shown at all this season which is kinda frustrating cause if he had shown just one game where he did that (despite all bulls**t calls by refs and dropped passes) then i think everyone would feel a little easier.

That being said I would like to give this kid a chance to be in the same system two years running with an improved O-line. Some of his throws just make me go . just beautiful..its whats makes me have hope

I completely agree with you.

I'm only posting this poll because of knee jerk reactionaries.

I realize that it doesn't come across as clear and rational thinking. But you have to accommodate the ZRF 80s' of the Zone. If they don't see numbers then they want to rip it all down and start over.

We're at the point now where if that happens it'll be another 5 years at the very least getting to the Playoffs.

So I extrapolated the stats in the hopes that it would finally flick the light on in their thinking devices.

This is as irrational as I get though. Normally I like cold hard solid statistics I can sink my teeth into. But for having to work without a net and come up with rationally challenging thought provoking numbers I don't believe I did as bad as some here have made it sound.

Just tired of the whining. Pure and simple.

~Ceadder

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by Niners99:
or you could stop comparing the two, because they wouldve been the exact same things if their roles/situations were reversed. book it.

rodgers to the 49ers, smith to the packers. same draft slots.

Smith gets the 3 years behind Brett Favre to learn. Smith is part of a winning organization with alot of talent, and a solid coaching staff preaching a consistent message. Smith gets 3 years to learn, he steps in, immediately has Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Ryan Grant to help him out.

Rodgers on the other hand, goes to us. because of how dire our 2005 QB situation is, he gets thrown into the fire right away. his line is so bad hes on his back after 2 steps back on every play. every ball he throws is while running backwards/falling over. he then makes progress, but the very next year he is flattened by a 2 ton oaf, misses 2 seasons.

they have similar talent levels, it was ALL in the opportunity and situation. Smith got the big bucks, but he entered a disaster area of a team. rodgers free fell, but he ended up in a winning situation behind a HOF QB.

ive seen Rodgers play enough to see his flaws. he holds onto the ball too long. his line might suck, but he makes them look alot worse by not understanding the basics of quick thinking in the pocket.

Smith has so much experience flat on his back early on, i think hes now done a good job at learning how to protect the football, have that timer in his head to know when to get rid of the ball, and when its best to throw the ball away rather than force it.

I like this one, dude! Happy Christmas.

You beat me to it. This is the story of what they were, and why they became what they are. Alex Smith needs a whole new mindset, before he takes the field next season. No more insecurity, take that ball and win this game. I'd like to see him start this against the Lions sunday. Good post Ceadder, lots of stats that compare Smith with the QB that we didnt pick. I think Rodgers was ahead of Smith fundamentally from the get go, but Smith would have looked much better, if he went to GB.

Originally posted by Ceadderman:

Originally posted by ruthless49er:
man usually your posts are logical and rational. this one though....

I dont care who the QB is as long as hes making the offense better. Smith has done that at times...others not so much. and im nto even talking about the dropped passes. I just think i give him at least one or two boneheaded mistakes per game. He hasnt learnt to win a game yet. thats what it basically comes down to which everyone is screaming about.

granted i feel a lot more comfortable with him back there then i was at any point since he got here. I think with him in there it gives us a chance to win the game at the end more so than a shaun hill or a rookie or a FA unless u get Green back in cause he knows Raye's system. still i dont have teh confidence in him to lead our team in the fourth quarter to put the winning points on the board.

until now hes proven that a) he can bring the team close b) he can manage a lead..for the most part.

the" c) he wins games on his arm" hasnt been shown at all this season which is kinda frustrating cause if he had shown just one game where he did that (despite all bulls**t calls by refs and dropped passes) then i think everyone would feel a little easier.

That being said I would like to give this kid a chance to be in the same system two years running with an improved O-line. Some of his throws just make me go . just beautiful..its whats makes me have hope

I completely agree with you.

I'm only posting this poll because of knee jerk reactionaries.

I realize that it doesn't come across as clear and rational thinking. But you have to accommodate the ZRF 80s' of the Zone. If they don't see numbers then they want to rip it all down and start over.

We're at the point now where if that happens it'll be another 5 years at the very least getting to the Playoffs.

So I extrapolated the stats in the hopes that it would finally flick the light on in their thinking devices.

This is as irrational as I get though. Normally I like cold hard solid statistics I can sink my teeth into. But for having to work without a net and come up with rationally challenging thought provoking numbers I don't believe I did as bad as some here have made it sound.

Just tired of the whining. Pure and simple.

~Ceadder

Right, in the meantime continuity with Smith(DeBerg). If he is what he is, everything else will be in place for when the heir apparant(Montana) gets here. Keep the wheel turning.

Originally posted by TheCatch:

Originally posted by Ceadderman:

Originally posted by ruthless49er:
man usually your posts are logical and rational. this one though....

I dont care who the QB is as long as hes making the offense better. Smith has done that at times...others not so much. and im nto even talking about the dropped passes. I just think i give him at least one or two boneheaded mistakes per game. He hasnt learnt to win a game yet. thats what it basically comes down to which everyone is screaming about.

granted i feel a lot more comfortable with him back there then i was at any point since he got here. I think with him in there it gives us a chance to win the game at the end more so than a shaun hill or a rookie or a FA unless u get Green back in cause he knows Raye's system. still i dont have teh confidence in him to lead our team in the fourth quarter to put the winning points on the board.

until now hes proven that a) he can bring the team close b) he can manage a lead..for the most part.

the" c) he wins games on his arm" hasnt been shown at all this season which is kinda frustrating cause if he had shown just one game where he did that (despite all bulls**t calls by refs and dropped passes) then i think everyone would feel a little easier.

That being said I would like to give this kid a chance to be in the same system two years running with an improved O-line. Some of his throws just make me go . just beautiful..its whats makes me have hope

I completely agree with you.

I'm only posting this poll because of knee jerk reactionaries.

I realize that it doesn't come across as clear and rational thinking. But you have to accommodate the ZRF 80s' of the Zone. If they don't see numbers then they want to rip it all down and start over.

We're at the point now where if that happens it'll be another 5 years at the very least getting to the Playoffs.

So I extrapolated the stats in the hopes that it would finally flick the light on in their thinking devices.

This is as irrational as I get though. Normally I like cold hard solid statistics I can sink my teeth into. But for having to work without a net and come up with rationally challenging thought provoking numbers I don't believe I did as bad as some here have made it sound.

Just tired of the whining. Pure and simple.

~Ceadder

Right, in the meantime continuity with Smith(DeBerg). If he is what he is, everything else will be in place for when the heir apparant(Montana) gets here. Keep the wheel turning.

If Smith is DeBerg, so be it. It's a damn sight better than Leaf. And ya gotta walk before you can run. Well unless you're me and just get up and run fall down and try it all over again til you walk.

True story btw.I actually did run before I walked.Moms had one of those old windup cameras that taped. Well that one all you see is a white and pink blur streak across the carpet.

~Ceadder

Good post / thanks for the stats....... I voted to keep him...... Unfortunetly the haters won't stop hating Alex until he starts to stack the "W's" . I still think he can be the guy to make this a winning team again.

Well You put in alot of work to make your point. Kudos for that.


However, QB rating is all you need to look at to see who's having a better year statistically. Unlike the other numbers you were using. QB rating measures you on the work that you've done. Which if you simply choose to double all of Smith's numbers his rating would be the same. 78.5 which is nearly 24 points below Rodgers. So let's put that in perspective.

Rodgers is at 102.4. Which puts him in the company of Favre, Rivers and Peyton. Smith's 78.5 is in company with Matt Ryan, Hasslebeck and Chad Henne.

So please tell me again how Smith is having a better season than Rodgers

Originally posted by bfree:
Why can't people finish their sentences in their thread titles?

It's called a lead in. It's what writers do to get you to come in and read their article.

Ceadderman's statistical manipulation is delusional, to say the least.

Yeah, let's take away an interception there, extrapolate there, ignore some other statistics, and voila....Alex Smith is a better statistically than Aaron Rodgers. GTFO with that BS

Here is the correct, unaltered statistical extrapolation.

8.5 games
1898 Yards (210.9 yards per game)
16 Touchdowns
12 interceptions


Full season extrapolation
3572.7 Yards
30.1 Touchdowns
22.6 Interceptions
60.1% Completion
6.1 Yards/Attempt
78.5 QB Rating.


Those numbers extrapolated are very mediocre numbers across the boards. Particularly the yards per attempt, which is usually the best indicator of a successful passing game. And of course, these numbers don't take into account the fact that Alex would probably have a couple more stinkers in there if he had played the full 16 games, which would have brought his stats down even further. Alex would have flopped against the Falcons, just like Hill did, the way we played that game.



The guy has a QB rating below 80 and a pathetic 6 yards per attempt this season, while his supporters claim that he's had a career revival.

Oh and one more thing. If you are indeed doing his projection on just the games he started. You need to subtract the 3 td's and 1 int from his totals for a true analysis.

without the half game against Houston he has 13 td's and 11 int's. which = 1.6 td's a game for 26 td's. 1.375 int's per game which equals 22

26 td's and 22 int's



using his half game versus Houston

30 td's 22.5 int's

Originally posted by crzy:
Ceadderman's statistical manipulation is delusional, to say the least.

Yeah, let's take away an interception there, extrapolate there, ignore some other statistics, and voila....Alex Smith is a better statistically than Aaron Rodgers. GTFO with that BS

Here is the correct, unaltered statistical extrapolation.

8.5 games
1898 Yards (210.9 yards per game)
16 Touchdowns
12 interceptions


Full season extrapolation
3572.7 Yards
30.1 Touchdowns
22.6 Interceptions
60.1% Completion
6.1 Yards/Attempt
78.5 QB Rating.


Those numbers extrapolated are very mediocre numbers across the boards. Particularly the yards per attempt, which is usually the best indicator of a successful passing game. And of course, these numbers don't take into account the fact that Alex would probably have a couple more stinkers in there if he had played the full 16 games, which would have brought his stats down even further. Alex would have flopped against the Falcons, just like Hill did, the way we played that game.



The guy has a QB rating below 80 and a pathetic 6 yards per attempt this season, while his supporters claim that he's had a career revival.

Oh he has played 8.5 games instead of 7.5. So my numbers are off too.

Good post.

Right off the bat, Ceadderman's extrapolations are complete fiction.

Alex Smith started EIGHT games this year, not seven.

@Ind,
TEN,
CHI,
@GNB,
Jac,
@SEA,
Ari,
@PHI


To be fair, I should throw out the Houston Texans stats as well. The Texans prepared for Shaun Hill all week. Alex had the advantage of playing against a defense who didn't even know who he was. Mario Williams was quoted that week as saying that he didn't even know who #11 was.


Let's focus on the eight starts then .

Eight Starts
1692 Passing Yards
13 TD's
11 INT's.
59.4% Completion Percentage
74.9 QB Rating
5.81 Yards per Attempt


Full 16 game extrapolation
3384 Passing Yards
26 TD's
22 INT
59.4% Completion Percentage
74.9 QB Rating
5.81 Yards per Attempt




Better than Aaron Rodgers

For comparison purposes

Alex Smith full 16 game extrapolation
3384 Passing Yards
26 TD's
22 INT
59.4% Completion Percentage
74.9 QB Rating
5.81 Yards per Attempt


David Carr 2004-2005 Season
3531 Passing Yards
16 TD's
14 INT
61.2% Completion Percentage
77.2 QB Rating
7.6 Yards per Attempt


Steve Deberg (1984-1985 Season)
3554 Passing Yards
19 TD's
18 INT
60.5% Completion Percentage
79.3 QB Rating
7.0 Yards per Attempt

Trent Dilfer (1997-1998 season)
2555 Passing Yards
21 TD's
11 INT
56.2% Completion Percentage
82.8 QB Rating
6.6 Yards per Attempt



Except for his success in the redzone, mostly due to Vernon Davis, Alex Smith's season is the worst on this list.

Originally posted by Ceadderman:
If I told you that Alex is having a better statistical season than Rodgers.

Bare with me now. This is analytically speaking of course. But the numbers speak for themselves and I've even provided how I came about them. The bolded below are the analytical statistics. Enjoy.

"1st of all Rodgers has played the ENTIRE season.

He has at the moment 28 TDs' 7 INTs' 4k yards(less but not by much) with a 102.4 passer Rating.

Smith has 16/12 2k(same as with Rodgers of course) and a 78.5 rating.

Now the obvious thing that should jump out at me is what?

Ohhhhh that's right GAMES STARTED.

Rodgers=15

Smith=7

Moving on...

Rodgers had an ONE Offense and only ONE.

Smith worked TWO. Or tried to work the first one which was not going anywhere with the OTHER Starter.

Rodgers has been sacked 49 times. We got to him... TWICE.

Smith has been sacked 18 times. Green Bay got him... 3 times.

In THAT game...

Rodgers threw ZERO INT while Smith threw 1. A whole ONE turnover on Smith's part. And that was him trying to force the ball to make a play.

In any case Smith up until the last game was not a huge turn over machine. 7 games 12 Turnovers SHOW that. He's averaging under TWO a game. Now how many of those were because the Receiver tipped it up or quit on the play?

Take those away and Smith's QBP increases dramatically.

In fact, if you extrapolate Smith's numbers they ALSO go up. let's see he doesn't average but 200 yards right? 8 games x 200 is 1600 yards. 1600+2k is 3600. He averages at least 2 TDs' a game. That's (16x2)+16 that 's 48 TDs' But have to minus 1 per game that we ran Power I. So that's 40. But also his sacks go up as well. So Shaun Hill got sacked how many times. mmmm hmmm that would be... 18 times. Alex is a more mobile guy so I'll give him the benefit of escaping less than 1 an game. So we'll call it good at 13 sacks added. So that would be 31 sacks on the season to date. He has 12 INTs' on the season and averaging 1.6 INTs' a game x 8 that's 24.8 INTs' to date.

Now if Smith had PLAYED all 15 games without having to suffer through the Shaun Hill experiment along with the rest of us, his numbers would look like this...

Alex Smith

40 TDs'/ 24.8 INT 3600 yards and 31 Sacks.

Now granted Rodgers has been sacked a hell of alot more and has done more but the Packers Run Game is well I think that it's not as good as ours. So they throw more. And he's using the WCO. So one would EXPECT the numbers to be different.

STATISTICALLY speaking Smith is BETTER than Rodgers NOT worse."

Note to the Mods: Please do not lock this thread. I worked hard to get rational numbers so everyone can SEE what we have in Alex Smith. I'm tired of the whole Smith debate. We need to move on and address the other issues imho. Smith is NOT the problem.

*Edit*I edited this removing the personal conversation. No statistic was change in this process.*ediT*

~Ceadder

You sure know how to put a spin on it. Anywayz..I would say, "Alex, it's 2010..it's do or die".

f**k statistics.

It simply comes down to this.

When there is a big game where much is at stake and Alex Smith has to, at the very least, perform competently, he ends up SUCKING .......BAD.

The Titans game and the Eagles game is all I need to see.