What would you say...

If I told you that Alex is having a better statistical season than Rodgers.

Bare with me now. This is analytically speaking of course. But the numbers speak for themselves and I've even provided how I came about them. The bolded below are the analytical statistics. Enjoy.

"1st of all Rodgers has played the ENTIRE season.

He has at the moment 28 TDs' 7 INTs' 4k yards(less but not by much) with a 102.4 passer Rating.

Smith has 16/12 2k(same as with Rodgers of course) and a 78.5 rating.

Now the obvious thing that should jump out at me is what?

Ohhhhh that's right GAMES STARTED.

Rodgers=15

Smith=7

Moving on...

Rodgers had an ONE Offense and only ONE.

Smith worked TWO. Or tried to work the first one which was not going anywhere with the OTHER Starter.

Rodgers has been sacked 49 times. We got to him... TWICE.

Smith has been sacked 18 times. Green Bay got him... 3 times.

In THAT game...

Rodgers threw ZERO INT while Smith threw 1. A whole ONE turnover on Smith's part. And that was him trying to force the ball to make a play.

In any case Smith up until the last game was not a huge turn over machine. 7 games 12 Turnovers SHOW that. He's averaging under TWO a game. Now how many of those were because the Receiver tipped it up or quit on the play?

Take those away and Smith's QBP increases dramatically.

In fact, if you extrapolate Smith's numbers they ALSO go up. let's see he doesn't average but 200 yards right? 8 games x 200 is 1600 yards. 1600+2k is 3600. He averages at least 2 TDs' a game. That's (16x2)+16 that 's 48 TDs' But have to minus 1 per game that we ran Power I. So that's 40. But also his sacks go up as well. So Shaun Hill got sacked how many times. mmmm hmmm that would be... 18 times. Alex is a more mobile guy so I'll give him the benefit of escaping less than 1 an game. So we'll call it good at 13 sacks added. So that would be 31 sacks on the season to date. He has 12 INTs' on the season and averaging 1.6 INTs' a game x 8 that's 24.8 INTs' to date.

Now if Smith had PLAYED all 15 games without having to suffer through the Shaun Hill experiment along with the rest of us, his numbers would look like this...

Alex Smith

40 TDs'/ 24.8 INT 3600 yards and 31 Sacks.

Now granted Rodgers has been sacked a hell of alot more and has done more but the Packers Run Game is well I think that it's not as good as ours. So they throw more. And he's using the WCO. So one would EXPECT the numbers to be different.

STATISTICALLY speaking Smith is BETTER than Rodgers NOT worse."

Note to the Mods: Please do not lock this thread. I worked hard to get rational numbers so everyone can SEE what we have in Alex Smith. I'm tired of the whole Smith debate. We need to move on and address the other issues imho. Smith is NOT the problem.

*Edit*I edited this removing the personal conversation. No statistic was change in this process.*ediT*

~Ceadder

I don't like the comparison simply because smith didn't play the other games, he coulda've sucked really hard or put up peyton/brees numbers

Originally posted by ptinerocket:
I don't like the comparison simply because smith didn't play the other games, he coulda've sucked really hard or put up peyton/brees numbers

You can't handle what I'm saying based on that it's a statistcal analysis?

Way to go.

~Ceadder

i'm a smith supporter too but i think you got your math wrong. how'd you get 40 td's? and i'd take aaron rodger's numbers (just in terms of stats) any day over the numbers you put up for smith just because of the interceptions. 25 int. by Smith compared to 7 by Rodgers? it's unreasonable that you'd say smith's numbers are better dnt ya think?

caca con pelos

Originally posted by Ceadderman:
If I told you that Alex is having a better statistical season than Rodgers.

Bare with me now. This is analytically speaking of course. But the numbers speak for themselves and I've even provided how I came about them. The bolded below are the analytical statistics. Enjoy.

"1st of all Rodgers has played the ENTIRE season.

He has at the moment 28 TDs' 7 INTs' 4k yards(less but not by much) with a 102.4 passer Rating.

Smith has 16/12 2k(same as with Rodgers of course) and a 78.5 rating.

Now the obvious thing that should jump out at me is what?

Ohhhhh that's right GAMES STARTED.

Rodgers=15

Smith=7

Moving on...

Rodgers had an ONE Offense and only ONE.

Smith worked TWO. Or tried to work the first one which was not going anywhere with the OTHER Starter.

Rodgers has been sacked 49 times. We got to him... TWICE.

Smith has been sacked 18 times. Green Bay got him... 3 times.

In THAT game...

Rodgers threw ZERO INT while Smith threw 1. A whole ONE turnover on Smith's part. And that was him trying to force the ball to make a play.

In any case Smith up until the last game was not a huge turn over machine. 7 games 12 Turnovers SHOW that. He's averaging under TWO a game. Now how many of those were because the Receiver tipped it up or quit on the play?

Take those away and Smith's QBP increases dramatically.

In fact, if you extrapolate Smith's numbers they ALSO go up. let's see he doesn't average but 200 yards right? 8 games x 200 is 1600 yards. 1600+2k is 3600. He averages at least 2 TDs' a game. That's (16x2)+16 that 's 48 TDs' But have to minus 1 per game that we ran Power I. So that's 40. But also his sacks go up as well. So Shaun Hill got sacked how many times. mmmm hmmm that would be... 18 times. Alex is a more mobile guy so I'll give him the benefit of escaping less than 1 an game. So we'll call it good at 13 sacks added. So that would be 31 sacks on the season to date. He has 12 INTs' on the season and averaging 1.6 INTs' a game x 8 that's 24.8 INTs' to date.

Now if Smith had PLAYED all 15 games without having to suffer through the Shaun Hill experiment along with the rest of us, his numbers would look like this...

Alex Smith

40 TDs'/ 24.8 INT 3600 yards and 31 Sacks.

Now granted Rodgers has been sacked a hell of alot more and has done more but the Packers Run Game is well I think that it's not as good as ours. So they throw more. And he's using the WCO. So one would EXPECT the numbers to be different.

STATISTICALLY speaking Smith is BETTER than Rodgers NOT worse."

Note to the Mods: Please do not lock this thread. I worked hard to get rational numbers so everyone can SEE what we have in Alex Smith. I'm tired of the whole Smith debate. We need to move on and address the other issues imho. Smith is NOT the problem.

*Edit*I edited this removing the personal conversation. No statistic was change in this process.*ediT*

~Ceadder

I'm no statistician, but I do have a technical education and I do not see a shred of rigorous statistical analysis here. Its more like fun with numbers. You're welcome to analyze to your hearts desire using whatever assumptions you please, but to play it off like you've just incontrovertibly proven anything is laughable.

Oh, and for the record, I am a Smith supporter for one more season.

So how many Td's do you give Vernon. 30?
And how is 24.8 ints better than 7 for Rodgers. Also your not counting Rodgers rushing TDs

Originally posted by CornellU49er:

Originally posted by Ceadderman:
If I told you that Alex is having a better statistical season than Rodgers.

Bare with me now. This is analytically speaking of course. But the numbers speak for themselves and I've even provided how I came about them. The bolded below are the analytical statistics. Enjoy.

"1st of all Rodgers has played the ENTIRE season.

He has at the moment 28 TDs' 7 INTs' 4k yards(less but not by much) with a 102.4 passer Rating.

Smith has 16/12 2k(same as with Rodgers of course) and a 78.5 rating.

Now the obvious thing that should jump out at me is what?

Ohhhhh that's right GAMES STARTED.

Rodgers=15

Smith=7

Moving on...

Rodgers had an ONE Offense and only ONE.

Smith worked TWO. Or tried to work the first one which was not going anywhere with the OTHER Starter.

Rodgers has been sacked 49 times. We got to him... TWICE.

Smith has been sacked 18 times. Green Bay got him... 3 times.

In THAT game...

Rodgers threw ZERO INT while Smith threw 1. A whole ONE turnover on Smith's part. And that was him trying to force the ball to make a play.

In any case Smith up until the last game was not a huge turn over machine. 7 games 12 Turnovers SHOW that. He's averaging under TWO a game. Now how many of those were because the Receiver tipped it up or quit on the play?

Take those away and Smith's QBP increases dramatically.

In fact, if you extrapolate Smith's numbers they ALSO go up. let's see he doesn't average but 200 yards right? 8 games x 200 is 1600 yards. 1600+2k is 3600. He averages at least 2 TDs' a game. That's (16x2)+16 that 's 48 TDs' But have to minus 1 per game that we ran Power I. So that's 40. But also his sacks go up as well. So Shaun Hill got sacked how many times. mmmm hmmm that would be... 18 times. Alex is a more mobile guy so I'll give him the benefit of escaping less than 1 an game. So we'll call it good at 13 sacks added. So that would be 31 sacks on the season to date. He has 12 INTs' on the season and averaging 1.6 INTs' a game x 8 that's 24.8 INTs' to date.

Now if Smith had PLAYED all 15 games without having to suffer through the Shaun Hill experiment along with the rest of us, his numbers would look like this...

Alex Smith

40 TDs'/ 24.8 INT 3600 yards and 31 Sacks.

Now granted Rodgers has been sacked a hell of alot more and has done more but the Packers Run Game is well I think that it's not as good as ours. So they throw more. And he's using the WCO. So one would EXPECT the numbers to be different.

STATISTICALLY speaking Smith is BETTER than Rodgers NOT worse."

Note to the Mods: Please do not lock this thread. I worked hard to get rational numbers so everyone can SEE what we have in Alex Smith. I'm tired of the whole Smith debate. We need to move on and address the other issues imho. Smith is NOT the problem.

*Edit*I edited this removing the personal conversation. No statistic was change in this process.*ediT*

~Ceadder

I'm no statistician, but I do have a technical education and I do not see a shred of rigorous statistical analysis here. Its more like fun with numbers. You're welcome to analyze to your hearts desire using whatever assumptions you please, but to play it off like you've just incontrovertibly proven anything is laughable.

Oh, and for the record, I am a Smith supporter for one more season.

I kind of got that too. I am not uneducated by any means but that is a bunch of giberish and hyperbole if I have ever heard it. He calls himself the "no bs" guy.

Dude crack kills! I thought we got that over to you in the eighties! If you think alex smith is going to throw 40 touchdowns then you need to check yourself in the insane asylam! Do it quickly!

Why can't people finish their sentences in their thread titles?

I don't play "what if" games. Rogers>Smith until proven otherwise.

or you could stop comparing the two, because they wouldve been the exact same things if their roles/situations were reversed. book it.

rodgers to the 49ers, smith to the packers. same draft slots.

Smith gets the 3 years behind Brett Favre to learn. Smith is part of a winning organization with alot of talent, and a solid coaching staff preaching a consistent message. Smith gets 3 years to learn, he steps in, immediately has Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Ryan Grant to help him out.

Rodgers on the other hand, goes to us. because of how dire our 2005 QB situation is, he gets thrown into the fire right away. his line is so bad hes on his back after 2 steps back on every play. every ball he throws is while running backwards/falling over. he then makes progress, but the very next year he is flattened by a 2 ton oaf, misses 2 seasons.

they have similar talent levels, it was ALL in the opportunity and situation. Smith got the big bucks, but he entered a disaster area of a team. rodgers free fell, but he ended up in a winning situation behind a HOF QB.

ive seen Rodgers play enough to see his flaws. he holds onto the ball too long. his line might suck, but he makes them look alot worse by not understanding the basics of quick thinking in the pocket.

Smith has so much experience flat on his back early on, i think hes now done a good job at learning how to protect the football, have that timer in his head to know when to get rid of the ball, and when its best to throw the ball away rather than force it.

Wow really?

1st the Gibberish statement. Umm I admit it's not my best written work. But it sure as hell ain't gibberish.

Now for everyone else.

The numbers were come by honestly. I split his passing average in half on TDs' while giving him his average INT stat for the games that he did not play. This is a reliable formula. It's done ALL THE TIME people. I'm not the first nor will I be the last to put forth a theory based on known statistics.

We know what his average is at this point for every category.

Now realize that I am working backward here. Most people take a couple solid outings and extrapolate them through the rest of the season based on limited info.

I only did it in reverse.

Also I did not base it on just the Spread formation success. I used both Offenses when figuring the numbers.

TDs'

Like I said 2 TDs' a gamex8. He's thrown 3 TD games it's not unheard of for the man to put two scores on the board through the air. But also I dropped 8 for the Run game. So I halved his projected total. Even MORE doable.

INTs'

He's averaging 1.6 a game with 7.5 games under his belt. I took that average and extrapolated that to the 7.5 games he didn't play. I made NO changes in this regard. No increase or decrease for ANY reason whatsoever. We know what he's thrown to this point and it's also reasonable to assign him 1.6 per game prior to when he Started.

Yards

This is the EASIEST of stats to analyze. He's only had ONE 300 yard game. Not great, but he's averaging 200 yards a game. So I assigned 200 yards for the prior games. x8 That's 1600 yards. He has 2k yards right now when rounded up. If he were below 1,750 I would have rounded down. This gives him an ATTAINABLE 3600 yards on to this point of the season.

Sacks

This is also an easy stat to figure out. I used the Sack stat that Hill has and put Alex in a similar situation. He's a bit more mobile so I allowed for that. He also has a quicker release and uses the snap count as well as his arm to get himself out or into trouble. This figured into the INT issue as well so it would be less Sacks taken.

Now I realize the science is lost on people. But the numbers DON'T lie. The numbers say this season Alex IS better than Rodgers.

But you have to be willing to suspend doubt long enough to look and see the theory.

My bad if I confused ya, but I did walk you through it step by step previously.

Think of this as a bit like Sabermetrics. They don't lie. And it's the clearest picture you're going to get short of Alex performing on the field right from the start of the season as he SHOULD have been.

~Ceadder

Alex can play. With 2 years in the same system I feel he will be even better. He's not the biggest problem on this team anymore. I believe he may be the best we have seen next year. For the 1st time in his career he will have some continuity.

man usually your posts are logical and rational. this one though....

I dont care who the QB is as long as hes making the offense better. Smith has done that at times...others not so much. and im nto even talking about the dropped passes. I just think i give him at least one or two boneheaded mistakes per game. He hasnt learnt to win a game yet. thats what it basically comes down to which everyone is screaming about.

granted i feel a lot more comfortable with him back there then i was at any point since he got here. I think with him in there it gives us a chance to win the game at the end more so than a shaun hill or a rookie or a FA unless u get Green back in cause he knows Raye's system. still i dont have teh confidence in him to lead our team in the fourth quarter to put the winning points on the board.

until now hes proven that a) he can bring the team close b) he can manage a lead..for the most part.

the" c) he wins games on his arm" hasnt been shown at all this season which is kinda frustrating cause if he had shown just one game where he did that (despite all bulls**t calls by refs and dropped passes) then i think everyone would feel a little easier.

That being said I would like to give this kid a chance to be in the same system two years running with an improved O-line. Some of his throws just make me go . just beautiful..its whats makes me have hope