Looking at our games this year, the biggest variable in whether we win or lose is the play of the defense.
When the defense plays 'lights out', we win regardless of the play of the offense.
When the defense plays poorly, we lose regardless of the play of the offense.
That includes the Indy and Minnesota games -- our D gave up 400+ yards of offense in both games.
The only exceptions:
The Seattle game, where we gave up under 300 yards and loss, due to a fumbled punt, a Gore fumble, and 10 dropped passes on offense. We only gave up 315 yards to Tennessee as well, but were -4 in turnovers.