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THE SACKS ARE NOT MISLEADING

THE SACKS ARE NOT MISLEADING

Originally posted by tmg808:
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Originally posted by tmg808:
The 49ers are ranked right now 7th in Sacks and many people believe this is misleading because they are not getting constant pressure on the QB, but the stats say that they ARE getting constant pressure:

The only stat that is kept that proves pressure is QB hits
By Stats on the ESPN network the 49ers have hit the QB 71 times in the season
Only 4 games out of 12 has the 49ers allowed more QB hits than there opponent

The total Offensive Line Stats From NFL.com Stats Show:
The Average time allows there team to get hit is 59 with 55 being in the middle
And there is a team that has given up 71 which ranks 6th worse in the NFL
The Colts being the team with the lowest amount of QB hits at 2.75 a game the 49ers had 5 QB hits against them.


With those facts combined with the seciondary having a low amount of pass defenses and low amount of interceptions show the problem is not the pass rush, the problem is the secondary.

Stats should not be evaluated without context. If you're losing 37 - 15, the other team consistently brings in the 2nd string QB and he throws 4 picks, creating a stat turnover rating of +12, does that mean your defense is good? Not necessarily.

If you really want to judge pressure, show me opposing 3rd down conversion rates and how many picks the team has (forcing bad throws, forcing receivers out of position), opposing QB completion percentage. I think those are better judgments than taking one stat and making a general conclusion about an entire defense (pressure).

We are talking about pass rush and pressure on the QB, The top teams in Sacks are not the top teams in Opp 3rd down conversion rates. ( Pittsburg 2nd in sacks 20th in 3rd down conversion rate)

Well see if the 49ers were as good at getting pressure as you claim from this stat, it would invariably mean that other stats would also make sense:

Definition of a great D isn't just sacks, it's turnovers, lower opposing QB rating, and most importantly 3rd down efficiency. Great, consistent pressure SHOULD equate to more turnovers AND better third down efficiency. What your stat tells me in combination with other stats is that the 49ers are great at getting pressure on 1st down and pretty good about a pass-rush during the beginning of games but it disappears soon after the oppositions adjusts. This is most likely due to the defense spending too much time on the field because of an inept offense earlier this season, particularly an inability to sustain drives. Of course this means a tired D by the 4th against an adjusted opposing O.

[ Edited by NinerGM on Dec 10, 2009 at 17:25:28 ]
  • tmg808
  • Info N/A
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Originally posted by tmg808:
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Originally posted by tmg808:
The 49ers are ranked right now 7th in Sacks and many people believe this is misleading because they are not getting constant pressure on the QB, but the stats say that they ARE getting constant pressure:

The only stat that is kept that proves pressure is QB hits
By Stats on the ESPN network the 49ers have hit the QB 71 times in the season
Only 4 games out of 12 has the 49ers allowed more QB hits than there opponent

The total Offensive Line Stats From NFL.com Stats Show:
The Average time allows there team to get hit is 59 with 55 being in the middle
And there is a team that has given up 71 which ranks 6th worse in the NFL
The Colts being the team with the lowest amount of QB hits at 2.75 a game the 49ers had 5 QB hits against them.


With those facts combined with the seciondary having a low amount of pass defenses and low amount of interceptions show the problem is not the pass rush, the problem is the secondary.

Stats should not be evaluated without context. If you're losing 37 - 15, the other team consistently brings in the 2nd string QB and he throws 4 picks, creating a stat turnover rating of +12, does that mean your defense is good? Not necessarily.

If you really want to judge pressure, show me opposing 3rd down conversion rates and how many picks the team has (forcing bad throws, forcing receivers out of position), opposing QB completion percentage. I think those are better judgments than taking one stat and making a general conclusion about an entire defense (pressure).

We are talking about pass rush and pressure on the QB, The top teams in Sacks are not the top teams in Opp 3rd down conversion rates. ( Pittsburg 2nd in sacks 20th in 3rd down conversion rate)

Well see if the 49ers were as good at getting pressure as you claim from this stat, it would invariably mean that other stats would also make sense:

Definition of a great D isn't just sacks, it's turnovers, lower opposing QB rating, and most importantly 3rd down efficiency. Great, consistent pressure SHOULD equate to more turnovers AND better third down efficiency. What your stat tells me in combination with other stats is that the 49ers are great at getting pressure on 1st down and pretty good about a pass-rush during the beginning of games but it disappears soon after the oppositions adjusts. This is most likely due to the defense spending too much time on the field because of an inept offense earlier this season, particularly an inability to sustain drives. Of course this means a tired D by the 4th against an adjusted opposing O.

49ers are tied for 11th in the league in forcing fumbles, so they are solid in that department. But a telling stat is that they are at the bottom in the league when it comes to pass defended. This is telling me that the players are not in position to make plays in the secondary. So I give the Sacks to the front 7 but the secondary I do blame for the passing defense being below average this season. That's why you have seen so many non injury changes in the Secondary.
Inexperience secondary...? Once Clement got injured, they have Goldson (1st year starter), Brown (1st year), Spencer (1st year back from taking over for W.Harris), Bly, Lewis

I would guessed not a cohesive unit.
They play timid on 3rd down.
  • BigRon
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 14,778
Originally posted by tmg808:
The 49ers are ranked right now 7th in Sacks and many people believe this is misleading because they are not getting constant pressure on the QB, but the stats say that they ARE getting constant pressure:

The only stat that is kept that proves pressure is QB hits
By Stats on the ESPN network the 49ers have hit the QB 71 times in the season
Only 4 games out of 12 has the 49ers allowed more QB hits than there opponent

The total Offensive Line Stats From NFL.com Stats Show:
The Average time allows there team to get hit is 59 with 55 being in the middle
And there is a team that has given up 71 which ranks 6th worse in the NFL
The Colts being the team with the lowest amount of QB hits at 2.75 a game the 49ers had 5 QB hits against them.


With those facts combined with the seciondary having a low amount of pass defenses and low amount of interceptions show the problem is not the pass rush, the problem is the secondary.

Just for the record. Stats from ESPN is a regular poster here. No Joke.
  • tmg808
  • Info N/A
Originally posted by AXEGRINDER:
They play timid on 3rd down.

I think the secondary plays timid because the coaches have no confidence to tell them to play aggressive. There hasn't been a lot of huge plays given up this year but it seems like teams always make the play they need to.
The DBs have been a disappointment this year but the line has been above expectation. Still, there is no true pass rusher on the team. No one that other teams stay up and worry about. That is the difference when the game is on the line (pun intended).

Haley rose to the occasion. The great ones know when the game is on the line and produce. The 9ers have some very solid DLinemen but no heros. I really like J Smith but he is not a pure pass rusher, more of an all around guy. I have been hoping they would send Willis more often as he seems to have a nose for the ball whatever he is asked to do.
  • kem99
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 586
I've watched every minute of every 49er game this year...they need help on the pass rush...at best, it comes and goes. I don't need stats to know that the pass rush is inconsistent OR they have to blitz to get there, which your stats don't show. Perhaps, the 49ers are able to get hits on the QB but have to bring extra people to get there, which leaves the secondary vulnerable, etc. The stats wouldn't show that. You used the Colts as an example. The Colts get pressure from Freeney and Mathis and don't have to blitz a lot, so the Colts getting their number of hits on the QB without having to blitz might be totally different than the 49ers getting hits on the QB while having to bring extra defenders.

Not saying the secondary doesn't need help but, assuming Smith continues his solid play, their two biggest needs this off-season are OL and pass rush, followed by a kick/punt returner and then secondary help.
Originally posted by tmg808:
Originally posted by AXEGRINDER:
They play timid on 3rd down.

I think the secondary plays timid because the coaches have no confidence to tell them to play aggressive. There hasn't been a lot of huge plays given up this year but it seems like teams always make the play they need to.

I agree.
Looking at the teamrankings.com, among our pass defense stats we are:

29th(37.8) in pass attempts per game
28th(23.8) in completions allowed per game
27th(250.6) in yards allowed per game
24th(12.1) in first downs allowed per game
15th(6.2) in sack percentage
29th(6.2) in 3rd down conversions allowed per game
23rd(60.3) in opponent pass percentage

so there must be something wrong with the entire defense and not just the secondary

[ Edited by Ronnie49Lott on Dec 10, 2009 at 18:35:31 ]
  • tmg808
  • Info N/A
Originally posted by Ronnie49Lott:
Looking at the teamrankings.com, among our pass defense stats we are:

29th(37.8) in pass attempts per game
28th(23.8) in completions allowed per game
27th(250.6) in yards allowed per game
24th(12.1) in first downs allowed per game
15th(6.2) in sack percentage
29th(6.2) in 3rd down conversions allowed per game
23rd(60.3) in opponent pass percentage

so there must be something wrong with the entire defense and not just the secondary

1st stat says it all 3rd as far as most pass against per game. So teams are passing more because they are getting more completions. Rushing Yards per game is 5th so yards allowed per game is because of passing. Same with first downs allowed. Sack percentage is middle of back but far higher than any other passing stat. 3rd down is a passing down.. And pass percentage.. all can be directly related to the secondary.. Looking at Stats that relate directly to the front 7 are far higher than those.
Originally posted by tmg808:
Originally posted by Ronnie49Lott:
Looking at the teamrankings.com, among our pass defense stats we are:

29th(37.8) in pass attempts per game
28th(23.8) in completions allowed per game
27th(250.6) in yards allowed per game
24th(12.1) in first downs allowed per game
15th(6.2) in sack percentage
29th(6.2) in 3rd down conversions allowed per game
23rd(60.3) in opponent pass percentage

so there must be something wrong with the entire defense and not just the secondary

1st stat says it all 3rd as far as most pass against per game. So teams are passing more because they are getting more completions. Rushing Yards per game is 5th so yards allowed per game is because of passing. Same with first downs allowed. Sack percentage is middle of back but far higher than any other passing stat. 3rd down is a passing down.. And pass percentage.. all can be directly related to the secondary.. Looking at Stats that relate directly to the front 7 are far higher than those.

and the front seven.
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Originally posted by tmg808:
The 49ers are ranked right now 7th in Sacks and many people believe this is misleading because they are not getting constant pressure on the QB, but the stats say that they ARE getting constant pressure:

The only stat that is kept that proves pressure is QB hits
By Stats on the ESPN network the 49ers have hit the QB 71 times in the season
Only 4 games out of 12 has the 49ers allowed more QB hits than there opponent

The total Offensive Line Stats From NFL.com Stats Show:
The Average time allows there team to get hit is 59 with 55 being in the middle
And there is a team that has given up 71 which ranks 6th worse in the NFL
The Colts being the team with the lowest amount of QB hits at 2.75 a game the 49ers had 5 QB hits against them.


With those facts combined with the seciondary having a low amount of pass defenses and low amount of interceptions show the problem is not the pass rush, the problem is the secondary.

Stats should not be evaluated without context. If you're losing 37 - 15, the other team consistently brings in the 2nd string QB and he throws 4 picks, creating a stat turnover rating of +12, does that mean your defense is good? Not necessarily.

If you really want to judge pressure, show me opposing 3rd down conversion rates and how many picks the team has (forcing bad throws, forcing receivers out of position), opposing QB completion percentage. I think those are better judgments than taking one stat and making a general conclusion about an entire defense (pressure).

I agree with most of what you are saying. the sacks stat does not tell the whole story but combined with the stout run D and the front 7 is very very good on this team. the problem on this defense is the secondary, we really miss Clements and badly need 1 maybe 2 new safties.

I'm not saying a dynamic pass rusher isn't a need as well and we do not have a dominate rusher that most great defenses do but the stats don't lie either and this team gets quality pressure.
More pass-rushing stats

This is the only place that I could find that tracks sacks, hits, and pressures (this is for 3-4 OLBs too) so its a nice breakdown.

I think many people will be surprised where both Manny and Parys rank against the rest of the 3-4 OLBs in the NFL.

Sure, they could be better but I think many fans are overreacting to their "poor" play.
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