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The 49ers are much better than last year

  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,854
Looking at the margin of loss in the losses we have had from last year, I calculated the following:

2009:
Average margin of loss: 9.7

2008:
Average margin of loss: 11.4

That is an improvement, but what is especially interesting is when you take out the worst game for both years:
2009:
4.6

2008:
10.25

The lopsided loss to the Falcons this year skews the numbers a fair bit, the main point is that the 49ers have been in all of their games with the exception of the Falcon game, and all they needed was a TD or less to turn those games from a loss to a win (or at least send the game into overtime). In prior years, in many games, the game was over by half-time.

If we continue to improve, I think next year we will be seeing a lot more wins in the win column.
If you look at the Nolan era, you'll see that 1/3 of the time the 9ers won (usually by just a couple points), 1/3 of the time they lost close games, and 1/3 of the time they were blown out. So far there has only been one blow out and that was against the Falcons. It's incremental improvement to be sure, but it is improvement. Next year is going to be the year to watch this team take off.
Originally posted by fzrdave:
If you look at the Nolan era, you'll see that 1/3 of the time the 9ers won (usually by just a couple points), 1/3 of the time they lost close games, and 1/3 of the time they were blown out. So far there has only been one blow out and that was against the Falcons. It's incremental improvement to be sure, but it is improvement. Next year is going to be the year to watch this team take off.

I hope so, there is not that many years left until 2012.
This is an excellent observation! If we bring in at least 2 solid OLs and 1-2 disruptive defenders and we will see a lot more wins.

I would also consider firing Forester. He's done a bad job coaching our OL.
Originally posted by znk916:
Originally posted by fzrdave:
If you look at the Nolan era, you'll see that 1/3 of the time the 9ers won (usually by just a couple points), 1/3 of the time they lost close games, and 1/3 of the time they were blown out. So far there has only been one blow out and that was against the Falcons. It's incremental improvement to be sure, but it is improvement. Next year is going to be the year to watch this team take off.

I hope so, there is not that many years left until 2012.

Are you talking about the uncapped year or the end of the World in 2012?
I certainly appreciate your optimism, but I'm not feeling it. We still seem to have the same problems as last year and the year before. Hopefully we'll address the same old issues in the draft.

LB
Originally posted by leebert81:
I certainly appreciate your optimism, but I'm not feeling it. We still seem to have the same problems as last year and the year before. Hopefully we'll address the same old issues in the draft.

LB

Nah, we finally have a solid receiving core, Smith seems to be finding his groove and hopefully the spread offense is the answer and Sing realizes that. Our D is just a pass rusher away, maybe a safety.

On the offense we are missing two solid OL, with that I think we are pretty much set to be contenders. Our OL is horrible, I don't remember having that much of a s**tty OL.
we are a better team than last yr i truly believe it. im just extremely pissed off is that the coaching is not putting this team in a position to succeed. yes oline blows and we have weaknesses but with good to great coaching we get by those teams we lost by a few which seems like all our losses minus the falcons gm. i know for sure the media wouldnt be talking about the colts still being undefeated
We definetly need to find some players in the draft & FA. I think we need to find a new OL.
  • crzy
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 39,280
Without a doubt we're a better team this year.

Does anyone actually think last year's squad could have played the Colts and Vikings tough?

And we have two first rounders next year. We're on the way up with Singletary. All this panic is very premature.
Originally posted by fzrdave:
Originally posted by znk916:
Originally posted by fzrdave:
If you look at the Nolan era, you'll see that 1/3 of the time the 9ers won (usually by just a couple points), 1/3 of the time they lost close games, and 1/3 of the time they were blown out. So far there has only been one blow out and that was against the Falcons. It's incremental improvement to be sure, but it is improvement. Next year is going to be the year to watch this team take off.

I hope so, there is not that many years left until 2012.

Are you talking about the uncapped year or the end of the World in 2012?
Rolf
Originally posted by fryet:
Looking at the margin of loss in the losses we have had from last year, I calculated the following:

2009:
Average margin of loss: 9.7

2008:
Average margin of loss: 11.4

That is an improvement, but what is especially interesting is when you take out the worst game for both years:
2009:
4.6

2008:
10.25

The lopsided loss to the Falcons this year skews the numbers a fair bit, the main point is that the 49ers have been in all of their games with the exception of the Falcon game, and all they needed was a TD or less to turn those games from a loss to a win (or at least send the game into overtime). In prior years, in many games, the game was over by half-time.

If we continue to improve, I think next year we will be seeing a lot more wins in the win column.

Next Year?? I haven't heard that before..O wait i have for almost a decade.
Originally posted by crzy:
Without a doubt we're a better team this year.

Does anyone actually think last year's squad could have played the Colts and Vikings tough?

And we have two first rounders next year. We're on the way up with Singletary. All this panic is very premature.

Oh my brother, Testify!
Not the last 8 games of last year with Martz calling plays

Imagine another year in Martz's system and Martz working with a healthy Alex Smith and having Michael Crabtree at WR. The question is Vernon Davis would be having the type of season he is this year if Martz was his OC...
I agree that the team is improved but going from terrible to mediocre is easier than going from mediocre to excellent. We have lost 5 of the last 6 games and easily could have lost them all if not for the generosity of Jay Cutler. We have to get some intensity and go out and play for 60 minutes, starting from the opening whistle. It is too soon to judge this year's team, but I am optimistic for next year.