Alex Smith, 24th Best QB in the NFL (FootballOutsiders.com)

Alex Smith, 24th Best QB in the NFL (FootballOutsiders.com)

Last week, I posted the Footballoutsiders stats for Alex, which put him 6th or 7th in the NFL in passing (stats adjusted for defensive strength and situation).

This week, he dropped to 23rd. Most of that drop is due to the fact that the 49ers played the worst (statistically) pass defense in the NFL.

In fact, FO predicted, based on opponent strength and situation, for Alex to throw for 113 yards more than he actually did -- that would make it about 400. Basically, FO considers the yards racked up during the late drive as "garbage yards" and less valuable.

I think his ranking was punished more than it should have been for two reasons:

1. The Titans D has dramatically improved since their bye week, but stats are adjusted for past performance
2. The Titans secondary is much better with Courtland Finnegan back there
3. FO considers and INT and INT regardless of the circumstances. So if it bounces off a WR and he volleys it up for the defender, its on the QB, regardless.

At #23, Alex is sandwiched between McNabb and Garrard -- he was rated the 24th best QB of the week...on par w/ Rodgers performance vs. the Titans. I predict the Titans Defense will continue to play at 2008 levels, so these week 9 sats will improve. To note, Shaun Hill is ranked 33rd, with numbers comparable to Matt Cassell, Kyle Boller, and Kerry Collins.

This week, the 49ers are playing the 25th-best (according to FO) pass defense in Chicago, so Smith will have to "light it up" just to meet expectations.

Of note, Chicago is 27th vs. #1 WRs, 22nd vs slot WRs and others, and 6th vs TEs and 11th vs RBs.



http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2009/week-9-quick-reads

yay

Originally posted by King49er:
yay

Trying tp put some objective analysis into the Smith haters vs. Smith lovers quarrel.

Personally, I think that Smtih will continue to grow and Raye will continue to open up the offense as the season goes on. Smith will be a quality starter by year's end and will go into camp next year as the unchallenged starter.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by King49er:
yay

Trying tp put some objective analysis into the Smith haters vs. Smith lovers quarrel.

Personally, I think that Smtih will continue to grow and Raye will continue to open up the offense as the season goes on. Smith will be a quality starter by year's end and will go into camp next year as the unchallenged starter.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by King49er:
yay

Trying tp put some objective analysis into the Smith haters vs. Smith lovers quarrel.

Personally, I think that Smtih will continue to grow and Raye will continue to open up the offense as the season goes on. Smith will be a quality starter by year's end and will go into camp next year as the unchallenged starter.

I just don't care anymore... Alex Smith is the best option we have to win right now at QB.


Hopefully if our O can have the same players playing together for more than 2 weeks then maybe we can start making even more big plays.

Anyone who hasn't seen the talent level rise since Crabtree and Smith were inserted into the line up are either blind, or they do not watch the games.

Originally posted by King49er:

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by King49er:
yay

Trying tp put some objective analysis into the Smith haters vs. Smith lovers quarrel.

Personally, I think that Smtih will continue to grow and Raye will continue to open up the offense as the season goes on. Smith will be a quality starter by year's end and will go into camp next year as the unchallenged starter.

I just don't care anymore... Alex Smith is the best option we have to win right now at QB.


Hopefully if our O can have the same players playing together for more than 2 weeks then maybe we can start making even more big plays.

Anyone who hasn't seen the talent level rise since Crabtree and Smith were inserted into the line up are either blind, or they do not watch the games.

Smtih is also the best chance of us winning in the next 2 - 3 years. I don't see any top-notch FA QBs on the horizon, so that limits us to rookies -- expect 2 - 3 years for that person to mature (if ever).

Alex could serve as a "good enough" QB for a team with a stout defense and a (hopefully) strong running game.

Fixing the right tackle debacle will do more for this team than anything else -- it will help in the passing game and significantly improve the running game.

Soon he'll be in the company of Jamarcus "Fat Albert" Russell

Originally posted by Tru2RedNGold25:
Soon he'll be in the company of Jamarcus "Fat Albert" Russell

This, although i'd obviously prefer Smith if i had to choose between the two

This is why i can't take this ranking seriously. how can you go from 6th to 24 with one bad performance. Is this based on the yearly stats or weekly?

Originally posted by lamontb:
This is why i can't take this ranking seriously. how can you go from 6th to 24 with one bad performance. Is this based on the yearly stats or weekly?

average QB rating. He has started in 2 games so of course his rating will take a bigger hit than if he had started the entire year.

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by King49er:
yay

Trying tp put some objective analysis into the Smith haters vs. Smith lovers quarrel.

Personally, I think that Smtih will continue to grow and Raye will continue to open up the offense as the season goes on. Smith will be a quality starter by year's end and will go into camp next year as the unchallenged starter.

Its do-or-die for him! He better show that he can win with the rest of this season or they better CUT HIS ASS!! I'm tired of the "he didn't get a fair shot" bulls**t excuse! He is getting his chance now and is 0-3 so far. How much time are we going to wait for him to "develop"??

Originally posted by backontop:

Originally posted by lamontb:
This is why i can't take this ranking seriously. how can you go from 6th to 24 with one bad performance. Is this based on the yearly stats or weekly?

average QB rating. He has started in 2 games so of course his rating will take a bigger hit than if he had started the entire year.

True but i had a problem with this stat last week alos Can't have a guy who played 6 quarters ranked number 6. I understand what the stat is trying to do it just isn't doign it effectively. Interesting to look at but I just dont' take it seriously

There u go Smith lovers...suck on that

Originally posted by Norcal9erfan:

Originally posted by nickbradley:

Originally posted by King49er:
yay

Trying tp put some objective analysis into the Smith haters vs. Smith lovers quarrel.

Personally, I think that Smtih will continue to grow and Raye will continue to open up the offense as the season goes on. Smith will be a quality starter by year's end and will go into camp next year as the unchallenged starter.

Its do-or-die for him! He better show that he can win with the rest of this season or they better CUT HIS ASS!! I'm tired of the "he didn't get a fair shot" bulls**t excuse! He is getting his chance now and is 0-3 so far. How much time are we going to wait for him to "develop"??

After a few weeks of the same players on O playing together, I have no doubt in my mind that this team will be tough to stop.

Unfortunately, it may be too late for this season, I guess we'll find out Thursday night, this will be his 4th week as our QB(3 starting), so we'll see.

Also, we have got to have the worst O-Line in the NFL for the amount of rising stars that we have at the skill positions, it's unreal and it's seriously needs to be addressed in the off-season.