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Game 1 & 2 - QB time holding the ball breakdown

With the replay of the game tonight I had a chance to really just focus on the QB play. On each passing play I only watched the QB and timed (with a stop watch) how long it took from snap of the ball to the throw. I also tried to pay particular attention to how the QB appeared to "read" the play, and how quickly he decided where to go with the football. I was a little surprised at how obvious the difference in play was between the QBs when you focused just on the one player this way.

Here is the timing breakdown and some comments on specific plays:

Hill
Pass 1: 1.9 seconds -- threw through traffic closing on him
Pass 2: 2.7 sec -- was sacked when Keasey's block collapsed; but Hill did not appear to be readying to throw either.
3: 2.6 sec
4: 1.7 sec (made quick decision to run up open lane)
5: 4.2 sec sacked

Smith
1: 5.6 sec -- sacked
2: 2.7 sec
3: 2.3 sec -- appeared decisive on choosing where he wanted to go with the throw
4: 3.0 sec -- play action - play designed to take longer to develop
5: 2.6 sec -- incomplete -- it looked like Smith expected the receiver to be deeper in an opening between the safety and corner on the sideline; BUT, the pass also looked overthrown out of bounds, so even if the receiver was there it may not have been catchable.
6: 2.99 sec -- TD pass to fullback in the flat; throw did not "make it easy" for the fullback; looked like FB had to stop to catch the ball.
7: 2.6 sec -- Screen pass
8: 2.8 sec -- deep out

Orton
1: 1.7 sec - went decisively to 1st read
2: 2.3 sec - went to second read (Lawson seemed to make an error and not cover the outside receiver in his zone)
3: 1.6 sec -- quick throw to receiver screen
4: 1.6 sec
5: 2.2 sec
6: 2.3 sec
7: 1.7 sec
8: 1.7 sec
9: 2.3 sec INT
10: 2.1 sec
11: 1.4 sec
12: 2.4 sec
13: 2.7 sec INT
14: 3.1 sec INT
15: 2.4 sec
16: 1.1 sec
17: 4.8 sec

The most obvious difference in play was between Orton and Hill/Smith. Despite his interceptions, Orton was much more decisive in his reads and throws. I know this is a big judgement, but it appeared he made a "pre-snap" read of the defense and knew where he was going to throw the ball as soon as he hit the back of his drop. In the instances where he appeared to shift his body and head before a throw and go to a "second read" it is hard to tell if he was doing that as truly going to a his second read or if his original "look" was "looking off" the coverage from where he intended to go.

This contrasted quite a bit from both Hill and Smith. At the snap of the ball, both Hill and Smith seemed to be searching the field to decide where they were going to throw the ball.

However, without a bias, I must say that with only the limited snaps Hill had to compare, he did appear more decisive. On those throws Hill made under the 2 second mark, he seemed to know exactly where he wanted to go with the throw on the play. In contract, Smith didn't make a single throw under 2 seconds -- although in fairness, on his 2.3 sec and 2.8 sec throws, he did appear to be decisive in where he was going with the ball, those plays just took slightly longer to develop.
[ Edited by HearstFan on Aug 23, 2009 at 10:48 AM ]
so..... many..... numbers....


nah good s**t dude -- i think even without the time we could all tell Hill was quicker and more decisive.

but im not sure you could say orton had pre-snap reads and knew where he wanted to go. i mean, he threw 3 picks. and is learning the offense. and trying to get on the same page as the whole offense.
[ Edited by chico49erfan on Aug 20, 2009 at 12:37 AM ]
Originally posted by HearstFan:
With the replay of the game tonight I had a chance to really just focus on the QB play. On each passing play I only watched the QB and timed (with a stop watch) how long it took from snap of the ball to the throw. I also tried to pay particular attention to how the QB appeared to "read" the play, and how quickly he decided where to go with the football. I was a little surprised at how obvious the difference in play was between the QBs when you focused just on the one player this way.

Here is the timing breakdown and some comments on specific plays:

Hill
Pass 1: 1.9 seconds -- threw through traffic closing on him
Pass 2: 2.7 sec -- was sacked when Keasey's block collapsed; but Hill did not appear to be readying to throw either.
3: 2.6 sec
4: 1.7 sec (made quick decision to run up open lane)
5: 4.2 sec sacked

Smith
1: 5.6 sec -- sacked
2: 2.7 sec
3: 2.3 sec -- appeared decisive on choosing where he wanted to go with the throw
4: 3.0 sec -- play action - play designed to take longer to develop
5: 2.6 sec -- incomplete -- it looked like Smith expected the receiver to be deeper in an opening between the safety and corner on the sideline; BUT, the pass also looked overthrown out of bounds, so even if the receiver was there it may not have been catchable.
6: 2.99 sec -- TD pass to fullback in the flat; throw did not "make it easy" for the fullback; looked like FB had to stop to catch the ball.
7: 2.6 sec -- Screen pass
8: 2.8 sec -- deep out

Orton
1: 1.7 sec - went decisively to 1st read
2: 2.3 sec - went to second read (Lawson seemed to make an error and not cover the outside receiver in his zone)
3: 1.6 sec -- quick throw to receiver screen
4: 1.6 sec
5: 2.2 sec
6: 2.3 sec
7: 1.7 sec
8: 1.7 sec
9: 2.3 sec INT
10: 2.1 sec
11: 1.4 sec
12: 2.4 sec
13: 2.7 sec INT
14: 3.1 sec INT
15: 2.4 sec
16: 1.1 sec
17: 4.8 sec

The most obvious difference in play was between Orton and Hill/Smith. Despite his interceptions, Orton was much more decisive in his reads and throws. I know this is a big judgement, but it appeared he made a "pre-snap" read of the defense and knew where he was going to throw the ball as soon as he hit the back of his drop. In the instances where he appeared to shift his body and head before a throw and go to a "second read" it is hard to tell if he was doing that as truly going to a his second read or if his original "look" was "looking off" the coverage from where he intended to go.

This contrasted quite a bit from both Hill and Smith. At the snap of the ball, both Hill and Smith seemed to be searching the field to decide where they were going to throw the ball.

However, without a bias, I must say that with only the limited snaps Hill had to compare, he did appear more decisive. On those throws Hill made under the 2 second mark, he seemed to know exactly where he wanted to go with the throw on the play. In contract, Smith didn't make a single throw under 2 seconds -- although in fairness, on his 2.3 sec and 2.8 sec throws, he did appear to be decisive in where he was going with the ball, those plays just took slightly longer to develop.

I said the same thing in another thread but good breakdown. I think both QB's need to be more decisive but more on Smith.
Hill Average = 2.62
Smith Average = 3.07

Smith needs to get rid of it a little sooner to be at the medium time for a line to hold which is usually 3 seconds or less. Pretty good overall for both IMO though
I used the one one thousand , two one thousand , three one thousand method and got the same results.

Hey I like your more scientific approach ------ nice job.
Originally posted by Method:
Hill Average = 2.62 Smith Average = 3.07 Smith needs to get rid of it a little sooner to be at the medium time for a line to hold which is usually 3 seconds or less. Pretty good overall for both IMO though


cosigned. theres not too much difference there but smith still has some improving to do there.
Originally posted by HearstFan:
With the replay of the game tonight I had a chance to really just focus on the QB play. On each passing play I only watched the QB and timed (with a stop watch) how long it took from snap of the ball to the throw. I also tried to pay particular attention to how the QB appeared to "read" the play, and how quickly he decided where to go with the football. I was a little surprised at how obvious the difference in play was between the QBs when you focused just on the one player this way.

Here is the timing breakdown and some comments on specific plays:

Hill
Pass 1: 1.9 seconds -- threw through traffic closing on him
Pass 2: 2.7 sec -- was sacked when Keasey's block collapsed; but Hill did not appear to be readying to throw either.
3: 2.6 sec
4: 1.7 sec (made quick decision to run up open lane)
5: 4.2 sec sacked

Smith
1: 5.6 sec -- sacked
2: 2.7 sec
3: 2.3 sec -- appeared decisive on choosing where he wanted to go with the throw
4: 3.0 sec -- play action - play designed to take longer to develop
5: 2.6 sec -- incomplete -- it looked like Smith expected the receiver to be deeper in an opening between the safety and corner on the sideline; BUT, the pass also looked overthrown out of bounds, so even if the receiver was there it may not have been catchable.
6: 2.99 sec -- TD pass to fullback in the flat; throw did not "make it easy" for the fullback; looked like FB had to stop to catch the ball.
7: 2.6 sec -- Screen pass
8: 2.8 sec -- deep out

Orton
1: 1.7 sec - went decisively to 1st read
2: 2.3 sec - went to second read (Lawson seemed to make an error and not cover the outside receiver in his zone)
3: 1.6 sec -- quick throw to receiver screen
4: 1.6 sec
5: 2.2 sec
6: 2.3 sec
7: 1.7 sec
8: 1.7 sec
9: 2.3 sec INT
10: 2.1 sec
11: 1.4 sec
12: 2.4 sec
13: 2.7 sec INT
14: 3.1 sec INT
15: 2.4 sec
16: 1.1 sec
17: 4.8 sec

The most obvious difference in play was between Orton and Hill/Smith. Despite his interceptions, Orton was much more decisive in his reads and throws. I know this is a big judgement, but it appeared he made a "pre-snap" read of the defense and knew where he was going to throw the ball as soon as he hit the back of his drop. In the instances where he appeared to shift his body and head before a throw and go to a "second read" it is hard to tell if he was doing that as truly going to a his second read or if his original "look" was "looking off" the coverage from where he intended to go.

This contrasted quite a bit from both Hill and Smith. At the snap of the ball, both Hill and Smith seemed to be searching the field to decide where they were going to throw the ball.

However, without a bias, I must say that with only the limited snaps Hill had to compare, he did appear more decisive. On those throws Hill made under the 2 second mark, he seemed to know exactly where he wanted to go with the throw on the play. In contract, Smith didn't make a single throw under 2 seconds -- although in fairness, on his 2.3 sec and 2.8 sec throws, he did appear to be decisive in where he was going with the ball, those plays just took slightly longer to develop.



You mean Orton saw the CBs playing soft? WOW! Who would've thought that an NFL quarterback would notice such things?? I sure as hell didn't notice the CBs lining up 12yds off the LOS before the snap. Amazing
I think the timing of the passes is great. We need to get ball out faster! This also shows we didn't have anytime to get a pass rush either. Great job on the post!
Love this post

It shows just how fast a QB has to react. Many factors are the reason for receivers not getting open or broken play but the reaction time must still be there.

I feel this is the biggest reason most young QB’s struggle in the NFL. In college they may have an average of 5-6 seconds to make their decisions in the pros you got 2 seconds. The ones who figure it out become good the ones who don’t are backups or gone.
Originally posted by tohara3:
This also shows we didn't have anytime to get a pass rush either.

That's a good point. Those big cushions on the corners made life real easy on Orton, and tough on our rushers...
Originally posted by WillistheWall:
Originally posted by Method:
Hill Average = 2.62 Smith Average = 3.07 Smith needs to get rid of it a little sooner to be at the medium time for a line to hold which is usually 3 seconds or less. Pretty good overall for both IMO though


cosigned. theres not too much difference there but smith still has some improving to do there.

Originally posted by chico49erfan:
so..... many..... numbers....


nah good s**t dude -- i think even without the time we could all tell Hill was quicker and more decisive.

but im not sure you could say orton had pre-snap reads and knew where he wanted to go. i mean, he threw 3 picks. and is learning the offense. and trying to get on the same page as the whole offense.

I know, it is a stretch to make assumptions about what the QB is reading - I agree. The fact that he threw three picks doesn't mean he wasn't making reads - it just means he could be making the wrong read. Regardless, the point is that he seemed much quicker at identifying where he wanted to throw.
Good break down but what you can't account for is if Hill or Smith saw something from the defense on a certain play that forced them to hold the ball a little longer. could have been a WR running a incorrect route or falling down. They might have seen a CB bout to jump a route and didn't throw it. Good break down. they both have instances where they hold the ball way way too long especially Smith. On that play Hill got sacked it appeared that he could have just ran for a good 5/6 yards instead of staying in the pocket.
So now we are into the "decisiveness" obsession. The quicker the ball comes out, you guys claim, the better. Since Hill takes an average of 2.62 seconds, and Smith takes 3.07, that proves Hill is the more decisive. So what about Orton? His average was 2.23. Ah-ha! Therefore, he is more decisive, hence better!

Doesn't it occur to you that the time between taking the snap and releasing the ball is controlled by many factors. If the play calls for deeper drops, longer routes, you will hold the ball longer and with better results, provided your line holds up. Smith played after the OL had time to settle down and it might have been doing a better job letting Smith search the field.

Thus, I would suggest that you go back and include these other factors in your analysis. Do not oversimplfy.
  • jerryricefan80
  • Info N/A
Originally posted by excelsior:
So now we are into the "decisiveness" obsession. The quicker the ball comes out, you guys claim, the better. Since Hill takes an average of 2.62 seconds, and Smith takes 3.07, that proves Hill is the more decisive. So what about Orton? His average was 2.23. Ah-ha! Therefore, he is more decisive, hence better!

Doesn't it occur to you that the time between taking the snap and releasing the ball is controlled by many factors. If the play calls for deeper drops, longer routes, you will hold the ball longer and with better results, provided your line holds up. Smith played after the OL had time to settle down and it might have been doing a better job letting Smith search the field.

Thus, I would suggest that you go back and include these other factors in your analysis. Do not oversimplfy.

I wondered how long it would take for a Smith apologist to come out of the woodwork. Even in the face of glaring factual evidence and history, the urge remains.