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2009 49ers acccording to Football Outsiders...

  • KasparHauser
  • Info N/A
Football Outsiders, a statistics-based football analysis company, recently came out with their rankings and these were their predictions for the 2009 Niners:

2009 Mean Projection: 5.7 wins
On the Clock (0-3 wins): 15%
Loserville (4-6): 51%
Mediocrity (7-8): 22%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 10%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 2%

In my opinion, these guys are very good at what they do. They "smartly" look at the stats, and take stat analysis further than any other company that I have found. If they are correct, the 2009 Niners will be bad, real bad, and have a 51% chance of winning 4-6 games.

While I think the 2009 Niners will be 10-6, 9-7, or 8-8, I trust Football Outsiders. I don't want to be a homer and disregard the stats so I am more confused than ever. I think Barrows stated it best when he said he is "cautiously optimistic" for the 2009 49ers.

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[ Edited by KasparHauser on Jul 13, 2009 at 10:40 AM ]
He hit the nail on the head with Shaun Hill.
Depressing, but he does have some valid points though..
Bummer of an outlook . . . but it's hard for this Niner fan to envision a 66% chance of regressing from last years 7-9.

In spite of this I think they should still try to field a team.
"The book notes that the 49ers have not had a winning record beyond Week 3 in five years."

Damn...I didn't know that.
reading reports like this make me sick

Screw all that crap, lets play some football and SEE what happens, stats and all that "On Paper" crap pisses me off! 29 days til Denver baby then all this crap starts to get real!

No one gave the 81 Niners any chance either!
These bean counters fail to take into account the influence of the Head Coach.

Mike Singletary is a motivator, perhaps the best in the NFL. He will get the most out of his players.

Every player in the NFL, even those playing for Detroit, is a professional football player. That means these players have the potential to be very good. It is the job of the HC to tap that potential. Sing will definitely be successful at tapping player potential.

The 49ers are going to surprise so many so-called professionals this year.

Sing said he is certain they are a playoff team. He did not have to say that. He could have done a Nolan and spoken many words without saying anything. But he didn't. He said he is sure they are a playoff team.

So who are you going to believe? Who has more credibility with you? Some statistic counters who are wrong as much as they are right, or the Head Coach of the San Francisco 49ers?

I choose Sing over Football Outsiders any day. I would gladly bet FO that the team will have a winning record this year. But they would likely not take that bet.

What does that say about them?
  • KasparHauser
  • Info N/A
Originally posted by longtime49erfan:
These bean counters fail to take into account the influence of the Head Coach.

Mike Singletary is a motivator, perhaps the best in the NFL. He will get the most out of his players.

Every player in the NFL, even those playing for Detroit, is a professional football player. That means these players have the potential to be very good. It is the job of the HC to tap that potential. Sing will definitely be successful at tapping player potential.

The 49ers are going to surprise so many so-called professionals this year.

Sing said he is certain they are a playoff team. He did not have to say that. He could have done a Nolan and spoken many words without saying anything. But he didn't. He said he is sure they are a playoff team.

So who are you going to believe? Who has more credibility with you? Some statistic counters who are wrong as much as they are right, or the Head Coach of the San Francisco 49ers?

I choose Sing over Football Outsiders any day. I would gladly bet FO that the team will have a winning record this year. But they would likely not take that bet.

What does that say about them?

Bodoglife.com will put out their lines in a month. You can go there and make that bet. I did last year ( I think the line was 7) and I pushed.
We are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL
Originally posted by KasparHauser:
Football Outsiders, a statistics-based football analysis company, recently came out with their rankings and these were their predictions for the 2009 Niners:

2009 Mean Projection: 5.7 wins
On the Clock (0-3 wins): 15%
Loserville (4-6): 51%
Mediocrity (7-8): 22%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 10%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 2%

In my opinion, these guys are very good at what they do. They "smartly" look at the stats, and take stat analysis further than any other company that I have found. If they are correct, the 2009 Niners will be bad, real bad, and have a 51% chance of winning 4-6 games.

While I think the 2009 Niners will be 10-6, 9-7, or 8-8, I trust Football Outsiders. I don't want to be a homer and disregard the stats so I am more confused than ever. I think Barrows stated it best when he said he is "cautiously optimistic" for the 2009 49ers.

Article

2% Chance of being a Super Bowl Contender? So they are saying there is a chance
Preseason prognostication means nothing,there is a reason why they play the games.I have confidence that this team will be over .500 for the first time in years,if I were a gambling type,I would put money on it.
Originally posted by KasparHauser:
Originally posted by longtime49erfan:
These bean counters fail to take into account the influence of the Head Coach.

Mike Singletary is a motivator, perhaps the best in the NFL. He will get the most out of his players.

Every player in the NFL, even those playing for Detroit, is a professional football player. That means these players have the potential to be very good. It is the job of the HC to tap that potential. Sing will definitely be successful at tapping player potential.

The 49ers are going to surprise so many so-called professionals this year.

Sing said he is certain they are a playoff team. He did not have to say that. He could have done a Nolan and spoken many words without saying anything. But he didn't. He said he is sure they are a playoff team.

So who are you going to believe? Who has more credibility with you? Some statistic counters who are wrong as much as they are right, or the Head Coach of the San Francisco 49ers?

I choose Sing over Football Outsiders any day. I would gladly bet FO that the team will have a winning record this year. But they would likely not take that bet.

What does that say about them?

Bodoglife.com will put out their lines in a month. You can go there and make that bet. I did last year ( I think the line was 7) and I pushed.

Sportsbook.com I believe already has lines up.
  • KasparHauser
  • Info N/A
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Originally posted by KasparHauser:
Originally posted by longtime49erfan:
These bean counters fail to take into account the influence of the Head Coach.

Mike Singletary is a motivator, perhaps the best in the NFL. He will get the most out of his players.

Every player in the NFL, even those playing for Detroit, is a professional football player. That means these players have the potential to be very good. It is the job of the HC to tap that potential. Sing will definitely be successful at tapping player potential.

The 49ers are going to surprise so many so-called professionals this year.

Sing said he is certain they are a playoff team. He did not have to say that. He could have done a Nolan and spoken many words without saying anything. But he didn't. He said he is sure they are a playoff team.

So who are you going to believe? Who has more credibility with you? Some statistic counters who are wrong as much as they are right, or the Head Coach of the San Francisco 49ers?

I choose Sing over Football Outsiders any day. I would gladly bet FO that the team will have a winning record this year. But they would likely not take that bet.

What does that say about them?

Bodoglife.com will put out their lines in a month. You can go there and make that bet. I did last year ( I think the line was 7) and I pushed.

Sportsbook.com I believe already has lines up.

Sorry to be annoying, but I am at work and cannot access those sites. What is line on the 49ers, Cards, and Seahawks?
FO is great at spotting things that no one else has spotted -- like the stat about how most RB's get hurt the year after they have 400 regular season carries. And they are great at showing how wrong a lot of assumptions actually are (like "you have to run and stop the run to win in the NFL").

But FO is not reliable at predicting the predicting wins and losses. Just check what they said about the Niners before the disasterous 2007 season -- that they were Rollin' with Nolan and that the Niners were on the verge of a breakout year. I don't have 2007 Football Prospectus in front of me, but I'm not makin' this up.

FO is a bunch of really smart guys who make good points and are very entertaining if you like a snarky take on everything. Take FO predicts with a grain of salt.