2009 Mean Projection: 5.7 wins
On the Clock (0-3 wins): 15%
Loserville (4-6): 51%
Mediocrity (7-8): 22%
Playoff Contender (9-10): 10%
Super Bowl Contender (11+): 2%
In my opinion, these guys are very good at what they do. They "smartly" look at the stats, and take stat analysis further than any other company that I have found. If they are correct, the 2009 Niners will be bad, real bad, and have a 51% chance of winning 4-6 games.
While I think the 2009 Niners will be 10-6, 9-7, or 8-8, I trust Football Outsiders. I don't want to be a homer and disregard the stats so I am more confused than ever. I think Barrows stated it best when he said he is "cautiously optimistic" for the 2009 49ers.
[ Edited by KasparHauser on Jul 13, 2009 at 10:40 AM ]