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49ers Fancast - In Your Ears and In Your Face

... and again, just want to say that what Hill has done is not going unappreciated by most 9er fans, including myself (and you, I.J.). It was great to see Hill come in and help to give us all something to smile about. I'm just not gonna make it into something more than it is. I am very glad to have Hill on our team, and if he starts and plays well, then good. If Alex starts and plays well, then all the better, but I am also a fan of Hill and overall... a 49er fan.
  • indianajim
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Just posted:

7-13-09: Blog: 53-Man Roster Projection

Originally posted by oldman9er:
... and again, just want to say that what Hill has done is not going unappreciated by most 9er fans, including myself (and you, I.J.). It was great to see Hill come in and help to give us all something to smile about. I'm just not gonna make it into something more than it is. I am very glad to have Hill on our team, and if he starts and plays well, then good. If Alex starts and plays well, then all the better, but I am also a fan of Hill and overall... a 49er fan.

Exactly. My contention has always been not to write Smith off. If he can come in and prove something to Singletary, then more power to him. Personally I think he's going to be able to tell (with much input from Jimmy Raye and Michael Johnson) whether or not Smith has what it takes to make it beyond Training Camp and Preseason. And, if Smith doesn't have what it takes in the regular season, Singletary will know very early on, so it's not like the whole season is going to be wasted.
[ Edited by indianajim on Jul 13, 2009 at 11:16 AM ]
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Just Posted:

7-22-09: Blog: Alex Smith Was Not the Answer
[ Edited by indianajim on Jul 22, 2009 at 4:45 PM ]
Originally posted by indianajim:
Just Posted:

7-22-09: Blog: Alex Smith Was Not the Answer


Your link is taking us back to the 53 man roster projection.

I found it anyway, but others may not... good stuff, Jim.
  • indianajim
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Originally posted by oldman9er:
Originally posted by indianajim:
Just Posted:

7-22-09: Blog: Alex Smith Was Not the Answer


Your link is taking us back to the 53 man roster projection.

I found it anyway, but others may not... good stuff, Jim.

Fixed. :D
  • indianajim
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David Fucillo of Niners Nation joins me to discuss issues facing the 49ers heading into training camp.

8-01-09: Training Camp and Interview with David Fucillo
Just read, and makes pretty good sense. especially the part highlighted. Cant wait till the first pre-season game.

Remember that teams own the #1 pick because they are BAD TEAMS.

Of those 16 Quarterbacks, none had a team defense as rookies ranked higher than 13th, Bledsoe’s New England Patriots. The average Defensive ranking was 21st. The 2005 49ers were last at 32. In the second season, the average defensive ranking was also 21st. The 2006 49ers were ranked 26th. Despite this lower than average ranking, Smith’s 49ers were at the average win-loss mark.

The fact is that every #1 overall QB has struggled upon entering the league. Some players, like Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer, have coaches and organizations that put the right environment and players around them to ensure their success.

Others, like Jeff George and Ryan Leaf (#2 overall) did not possess the malleability or attitude to overcome their situations. In fact, in Jeff George’s case, the Colts traded away their starting Left Tackle, top Wideout (Andre Rison) and two more key players to acquire the rights to George. This is an example of an organization failing to provide the right support to a #1 overall pick.

Other organizations, like the Cowboys, Patriots and Giants, worked hard but took longer to get to the point of success for their players. Aikman, Bledsoe, and Eli Manning took a little more time to reach an 80+ rating, let alone the Super Bowl. Tim Couch was overall a decent quarterback who could not overcome a bad team and organization.

Of those 16 Quarterbacks, 10 achieved an element of long-term success. 10 were sent to the Pro Bowl, 6 of them have won a Super Bowl. 3 of them are in the Hall of Fame, with Peyton Manning sure to join them upon his eligibility. Heck, even Steve Bartkowski was a two-time Pro Bowler. Even Jeff George has seen a taste of the playoffs. David Carr appears rejuvinated in the now-great Giants organization.

According to the evidence, grooming a Quarterback you’ve selected #1 overall is akin to managing your investments in Mutual Funds. You could put your money in a Money Market account or CD and make some kind of immediate return. But for the best long-term return on that investment, Mutual Funds over at least a five-year period make the most sense financially speaking. Dave Ramsey will tell you to steer clear of a fund if it does not have at least a five-year track record.

The conclusion from this data is that the 49ers made an investment in a #1 overall Quarterback, and according to history, that investment has not been allowed to mature over its appropriate time, being 2-5 years depending on the team around him. This should not imply that I think Smith has five more years to make good on that investment. But he has had only one full season as the starting Quarterback. Anyone who thinks that this is enough to judge him by is severely discounting the historical track records of #1 overall Quarterbacks.

Smith has not had a large enough sample of play to be legitimately and statistically declared a bust. Emotionally, many fans already apply that label, but emotion is not where the facts are. In his second season he was right on the track of success of a #1 overall Quarterback.

What says to me that he will still be successful is this: He has the selfless attitude of all great players. He has the singular talent that made him the consensus #1 Quarterback in the 2005 draft. His team now has the support structure designed to get the best out of its players, and the team has not given up on him. Those three factors have, in the past, ensured the success of previous #1 picks. Those who have not achieved success did not have those three elements in place.

That is why Alex Smith will be the starter. That is why Alex Smith’s breakout year is now.
Originally posted by Jersey9er:
Just read, and makes pretty good sense. especially the part highlighted. Cant wait till the first pre-season game.

Remember that teams own the #1 pick because they are BAD TEAMS.

Of those 16 Quarterbacks, none had a team defense as rookies ranked higher than 13th, Bledsoe
  • indianajim
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Originally posted by Jersey9er:
Just read, and makes pretty good sense. especially the part highlighted. Cant wait till the first pre-season game.


Thanks for checking it out, man!
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Just Posted:

8-09-09: Blog: Training Camp Week One Review
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More posts:

8-28-09: Blog: The Competition That Limped to the Finish
8-23-09: Episode Twelve: Preseason Impressions
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Just Posted:

9-10-09: Blog: 2009 Season Preview
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Just Posted:

9-12-09: Episode Thirteen - 2009 Season Preview Show
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Just Posted:

9-13-09: Blog: 49ers 20 @ Cardinals 16 - Postgame Reactions

[ Edited by indianajim on Sep 13, 2009 at 18:21:02 ]
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Just Posted:

09-16-09 Episode 14 - Week 1: Victory in the Desert