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2016 Vegas odds re-visited
Mar 27, 2017 at 5:55 AM
- Cjez
- Hall of Fame
- Posts: 162,988
U guys really arguing wit 49ATT?
Mar 27, 2017 at 7:09 AM
- SoCold
- Hall of Dumb
- Posts: 127,660
Originally posted by JBrack:
Originally posted by SoCold:
Originally posted by JBrack:
Ok listen bro, let me explain this to you. When you bet on an over under what are the odds? The odds are if the team will go over or under a specified number. The odds are the specifics of the bet. Ya know, odds are they wont score this many points. Never heard that expression before?
The money line and the pay line are not the odds. Unless its a straight up bet like in boxing. Once its handicapped those are the odds. Understand?
The payline is in the parenthesis.
Let me explain this to you.
You're thinking that Vegas is wrong just because it puts the 49ers o/u line at 5.5 games and they only won 2.
Wrong
What you're calling the "payline" is actually the Moneyline Odds. Without that information you don't know how to bet. You also don't know what the stakes are. Thus your fist post doesn't make sense.
Over 5.5 (+125) you bet $100 to win $125
Under 5.5 (-155) you need to bet $155 to win $100
What Vegas is saying is it's more likely the 49ers will be under that 5.5 games so they were right.
The over is the more attractive bet. Vegas does this hoping more people will bet the Over knowing it's more likely the team will be Under. This is how Vegas makes money.
lol
Let me explain this to you...
Those payline numbers were made up. Those were not real numbers. I surely didn't post them.
If you bet on a handicapped bet you are getting even odds 99% of the time.
Even odds means Vegas is saying its a 50/50 bet you will win or lose. Thats called even money. So even odds is what you are betting when you take a handicapped bet. If you don't know that then you don't know how to gamble.
As I said if you took the 49ers and the under there is a 50/50 chance you will win or lose. Those would be the "odds".
On a standard handicap bet its even money. Which would usually read like this (-110).
Why is that? Because the -110 is the payline. That means if you bet $100 you have to pay $110 if you lose( thats the juice and how Vegas really makes money). Otherwise you win $100 because its even money on wins with 50/50 odds.
Now explain to me how -110 gives you the odds of your bet? It doesn't, the extra 10 is the juice.
Like I said, the odds are the bet unless you are betting the money line with zero odds.
http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/2016-nfl-season-win-totals
Found this. Those were the final line numbers before the season from that site.
I know you didn't post them. Someone else did to prove a point.
That point is without the "odds" or in this case "Money Line Odds" You don't know how to bet.
+ Money line odds are less likely to happen
- Money line odds are more likely to happen
NO taking the 49ers and the Under is not a 50/50 chance you win or lose.
SO
49ers
Over 5.5 (+125)
Under 5.5 (-155)
The way that bet line is setup it's Vegas saying there's about a 70% chance of Under and 30% chance at Over
lol If you can't understand that you should prob stop betting.
baseball example of Money line betting.
Toronto Blue Jays -185
Baltimore Orioles +165
Just like the minus and plus values on the point spread, those values designate underdogs and favorites in moneyline betting. In this case, Toronto is favored at -185 (bet $185 to win $100), and Baltimore is listed as the underdog at +165 (bet $100 to win $165). In explaining the concept of moneyline betting further, it might help to view the number 100 sitting between the favorite and underdog values: +165 +100 -185
Because the Blue Jays are favored, the sportsbook needs you to risk more to bet on them. After all, they should win this game. So wagering on baseball favorites with moneylines calls for you to risk a certain number ($185 based on -185) in order to win $100. On the other side, the sportsbook is also willing to reward you for taking the underdog, so they give you an incentive to bet on the Orioles. In this case, you would risk $100 in order to win $165 (+165) on Baltimore.
Negative numbers = favored or more likely to happen.
Positive numbers = underdog or less likely to happen.
Mar 27, 2017 at 9:17 AM
- SteveWallacesHelmet
- Veteran
- Posts: 21,652
Originally posted by ChazBoner:
U guys really arguing wit 49ATT?
He isnt wrong though. The only one who has been wrong in this entire thread is the OP, who has no idea what odds are.
Mar 27, 2017 at 11:19 AM
- stonecold590
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,309
I'm going to just say this. The over under is 5. So o/u 5. In this way the bet is even money always. I can put 100 bucks on that SF goes over and win $100. If next to it O/U 5 (-110) then it is not EVEN $$. If there is no odds given IE O/U 5 and I pick the winner then I get Even $$
It is Even $$ I'd no odds are shown.
It is Even $$ I'd no odds are shown.
Mar 27, 2017 at 11:26 AM
- SoCold
- Hall of Dumb
- Posts: 127,660
Originally posted by stonecold590:
I'm going to just say this. The over under is 5. So o/u 5. In this way the bet is even money always. I can put 100 bucks on that SF goes over and win $100. If next to it O/U 5 (-110) then it is not EVEN $$. If there is no odds given IE O/U 5 and I pick the winner then I get Even $$
It is Even $$ I'd no odds are shown.
Money line odds are + - or Even
they are all listed here
http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/2016-nfl-season-win-totals
Mar 27, 2017 at 11:33 AM
- stonecold590
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,309
Originally posted by SoCold:Originally posted by stonecold590:I'm going to just say this. The over under is 5. So o/u 5. In this way the bet is even money always. I can put 100 bucks on that SF goes over and win $100. If next to it O/U 5 (-110) then it is not EVEN $$. If there is no odds given IE O/U 5 and I pick the winner then I get Even $$
It is Even $$ I'd no odds are shown.
Money line odds are + - or Even
they are all listed here
http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/2016-nfl-season-win-totals
If there is no money line posted then it's even money. Most will show the money line if it does not then it is even money. The way the poster had it at the beginning would be even money without the lines posted. That is my only point
Mar 27, 2017 at 11:46 AM
- SoCold
- Hall of Dumb
- Posts: 127,660
Originally posted by stonecold590:
Originally posted by SoCold:
Originally posted by stonecold590:
I'm going to just say this. The over under is 5. So o/u 5. In this way the bet is even money always. I can put 100 bucks on that SF goes over and win $100. If next to it O/U 5 (-110) then it is not EVEN $$. If there is no odds given IE O/U 5 and I pick the winner then I get Even $$
It is Even $$ I'd no odds are shown.
Money line odds are + - or Even
they are all listed here
http://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/2016-nfl-season-win-totals
If there is no money line posted then it's even money. Most will show the money line if it does not then it is even money. The way the poster had it at the beginning would be even money without the lines posted. That is my only point
Yeah but he's talking about Vegas being wrong about the odds. They always post the money line odds as to what they think is going to happen. Like the 49ers having a negative money line so it's more likely they will be under the set number of games.
2016 Vegas odds re-visited
that's the thread title
but he doesn't post or talk about the odds. It's confusing and the OP is confused about what we're saying.
He's just talking about Vegas being wrong on the straight up number of games won. That's not always the case and not the odds.
It's like betting the 49ers will beat a team straight up without the point spread. That doesn't mean Vegas is wrong because without the point spread you don't know what team Vegas is making the favorite or underdog.
lol
Mar 27, 2017 at 12:43 PM
- mutant-man49
- Veteran
- Posts: 1,976
Go back to the 2016 PYMWYMI thread.
You're in for a treat with all those bogus predictions.
You're in for a treat with all those bogus predictions.
Mar 27, 2017 at 1:20 PM
- SteveWallacesHelmet
- Veteran
- Posts: 21,652
Originally posted by SoCold:
Yeah but he's talking about Vegas being wrong about the odds. They always post the money line odds as to what they think is going to happen. Like the 49ers having a negative money line so it's more likely they will be under the set number of games.
2016 Vegas odds re-visited
that's the thread title
but he doesn't post or talk about the odds. It's confusing and the OP is confused about what we're saying.
He's just talking about Vegas being wrong on the straight up number of games won. That's not always the case and not the odds.
It's like betting the 49ers will beat a team straight up without the point spread. That doesn't mean Vegas is wrong because without the point spread you don't know what team Vegas is making the favorite or underdog.
lol
Another great post. Spot on.
Apr 5, 2017 at 10:35 AM
- JBrack
- Member
- Posts: 2,827
I was going to leave it alone but saw a smart ass comment this morning regarding this thread. Its the juice or the vig not the odds like I said many of times. This my last response to you no gambling rookies...
Over Under odds, or 'totals' betting, is growing in popularity and is often the best wager you can make on a game. Let's face it – some games are a toss-up and you really can't find an edge to pick one team over the other; that's where totals betting can come in.
BETTING TOTALS
Maybe there are defensive trends or offensive injuries or looming cold or windy weather that makes you think there will be a lot of scoring or not very much scoring in a particular game.
Let's take a Colts-Patriots game where you see the point spread listed and also another value, 55.5, listed. This is the total. You bet whether the total points scored by both teams will be more than or less than 55.5. In a 40-14 example, the score equals 54 points which is UNDER 55.5. In a 40-17 example, the score equals 57 which is OVER 55.5.
You may also see a small wrinkle in the total where it looks like this:
55.5 o -110
55.5 u +105
In this instance, the total remains at 55.5, but the amount of 'juice' or 'vig' you must risk is different. To wager the OVER value, you have to risk $110 to win $100. To wager the UNDER value, you get to risk $100 for the chance to win $105.
Totals are included in the "live odds" feed here at OddsShark.com, so you can always find the league page you want and dig into the numbers. Once you have the data and have handicapped a game, you can learn where to safely bet in the Top Sportsbooks section.
http://www.oddsshark.com/sports-betting/over-under-betting
Over Under odds, or 'totals' betting, is growing in popularity and is often the best wager you can make on a game. Let's face it – some games are a toss-up and you really can't find an edge to pick one team over the other; that's where totals betting can come in.
BETTING TOTALS
Maybe there are defensive trends or offensive injuries or looming cold or windy weather that makes you think there will be a lot of scoring or not very much scoring in a particular game.
Let's take a Colts-Patriots game where you see the point spread listed and also another value, 55.5, listed. This is the total. You bet whether the total points scored by both teams will be more than or less than 55.5. In a 40-14 example, the score equals 54 points which is UNDER 55.5. In a 40-17 example, the score equals 57 which is OVER 55.5.
You may also see a small wrinkle in the total where it looks like this:
55.5 o -110
55.5 u +105
In this instance, the total remains at 55.5, but the amount of 'juice' or 'vig' you must risk is different. To wager the OVER value, you have to risk $110 to win $100. To wager the UNDER value, you get to risk $100 for the chance to win $105.
Totals are included in the "live odds" feed here at OddsShark.com, so you can always find the league page you want and dig into the numbers. Once you have the data and have handicapped a game, you can learn where to safely bet in the Top Sportsbooks section.
http://www.oddsshark.com/sports-betting/over-under-betting
[ Edited by JBrack on Apr 5, 2017 at 10:52 AM ]
Apr 5, 2017 at 11:18 AM
- 49AllTheTime
- Veteran
- Posts: 66,641
Originally posted by JBrack:This proves that you were wrong, thanks
I was going to leave it alone but saw a smart ass comment this morning regarding this thread. Its the juice or the vig not the odds like I said many of times. This my last response to you no gambling rookies...
Over Under odds, or 'totals' betting, is growing in popularity and is often the best wager you can make on a game. Let's face it – some games are a toss-up and you really can't find an edge to pick one team over the other; that's where totals betting can come in.
BETTING TOTALS
Maybe there are defensive trends or offensive injuries or looming cold or windy weather that makes you think there will be a lot of scoring or not very much scoring in a particular game.
Let's take a Colts-Patriots game where you see the point spread listed and also another value, 55.5, listed. This is the total. You bet whether the total points scored by both teams will be more than or less than 55.5. In a 40-14 example, the score equals 54 points which is UNDER 55.5. In a 40-17 example, the score equals 57 which is OVER 55.5.
You may also see a small wrinkle in the total where it looks like this:
55.5 o -110
55.5 u +105
In this instance, the total remains at 55.5, but the amount of 'juice' or 'vig' you must risk is different. To wager the OVER value, you have to risk $110 to win $100. To wager the UNDER value, you get to risk $100 for the chance to win $105.
Totals are included in the "live odds" feed here at OddsShark.com, so you can always find the league page you want and dig into the numbers. Once you have the data and have handicapped a game, you can learn where to safely bet in the Top Sportsbooks section.
http://www.oddsshark.com/sports-betting/over-under-betting
Apr 5, 2017 at 12:24 PM
- Lobo49er
- Veteran
- Posts: 4,288
I really do love this thread.
Apr 5, 2017 at 12:32 PM
- JBrack
- Member
- Posts: 2,827
Vigorish, or simply the vig, also known as juice, under-juice, the cut or the take, is the amount charged by a bookmaker, or bookie, for taking a bet from a gambler. In the United States, it also means the interest on a shark's loan. The term originates from the Russian word for winnings, выигрыш vyigrysh.[1]
Bookmakers use this practice to make money on their wagers regardless of the outcome. To minimize their risk, some bookmakers do not want to have an interest in any side winning in a given sporting event. Instead, they are interested in getting equal betting on all outcomes of the event. In this way, the bookmaker minimizes his risk and always collects a small commission from the vigorish. For this purpose, the bookmaker will normally adjust the odds or the line.
The concept is also sometimes referred to as the overround, although this is technically different, being the percentage the event book is above 100%, whereas the vigorish is the bookmaker's percentage profit on the total stakes made on the event. For example, 20% overround is vigorish of 16 2⁄3%. The connecting formulae are {displaystyle v={frac {o}{(1+o)}}} v={frac {o}{(1+o)}} and {displaystyle o={frac {v}{(1-v)}}} o={frac {v}{(1-v)}} where o is the overround.
It is simplest to assume that vigorish is factored in proportionally to the true odds, although this need not be the case. Under proportional vigorish, a moneyline odds bet listed at −100 vs. +100 without vigorish (fair odds) could become −105 vs. +105. Under disproportional vigorish, it could become −110 vs. +100. A fairly common amount of vig is ~2%. [2]
Bookmakers use this practice to make money on their wagers regardless of the outcome. To minimize their risk, some bookmakers do not want to have an interest in any side winning in a given sporting event. Instead, they are interested in getting equal betting on all outcomes of the event. In this way, the bookmaker minimizes his risk and always collects a small commission from the vigorish. For this purpose, the bookmaker will normally adjust the odds or the line.
The concept is also sometimes referred to as the overround, although this is technically different, being the percentage the event book is above 100%, whereas the vigorish is the bookmaker's percentage profit on the total stakes made on the event. For example, 20% overround is vigorish of 16 2⁄3%. The connecting formulae are {displaystyle v={frac {o}{(1+o)}}} v={frac {o}{(1+o)}} and {displaystyle o={frac {v}{(1-v)}}} o={frac {v}{(1-v)}} where o is the overround.
It is simplest to assume that vigorish is factored in proportionally to the true odds, although this need not be the case. Under proportional vigorish, a moneyline odds bet listed at −100 vs. +100 without vigorish (fair odds) could become −105 vs. +105. Under disproportional vigorish, it could become −110 vs. +100. A fairly common amount of vig is ~2%. [2]
[ Edited by JBrack on Apr 5, 2017 at 12:34 PM ]
Apr 5, 2017 at 4:10 PM
- SteveWallacesHelmet
- Veteran
- Posts: 21,652
LOL
Apr 5, 2017 at 7:33 PM
- Lobo49er
- Veteran
- Posts: 4,288
What I've learned in the last couple weeks:
Odds aren't odds
Starting an LLC means never paying taxes.
Manilow is gay.
I'm pretty sure one of these is true, and I think i knew it was true 30 years ago.
Odds aren't odds
Starting an LLC means never paying taxes.
Manilow is gay.
I'm pretty sure one of these is true, and I think i knew it was true 30 years ago.