So the Dallas win tonight made me think of this scenario.
Your team has just come back and taken a 1 PT lead with a TD. There are 10 seconds or less on the clock, which means you'll need to kickoff the ball.
Now, at this point do you attempt a kick for 1 or a 2 PT conversion?
Neither. You snap the ball for a PAT and you sit on the ball to kill the play.
Why?
Well, going from a 1 point lead to 2 point lead means nothing - a FG beats you either way if they have a great subsequent miracle kickoff return to get them close enough. So a kick attempt is a wasted play.
So you'd think at first that a try for 2 would be smarter - after all, a 3 pt lead is better than 1 or 2 since a FG will only tie.
But then the new rule comes into play where a turnover on an extra point kick or a 2 pt conversion can be returned for 2 points. (Raiders blocked a Bengals PAT today, but didn't return it more than a few yards. But just shows it CAN happen).
So, while it would be rare, the chance for you to lose the game is there if you attempt either type of conversion.
Can you imagine losing a game by 1 pt off of a returned conversion attempt? Better to just snap the ball and sit on it to eliminate that small chance if you're gonna kick off with 10 or less seconds left in regulation.
Now, for Dallas tonight they needed to convert the kick to take the lead. But could you imagine if that kick was blocked and returned for NY to win?
Someday a team that is up by 1 point after scoring a go ahead TD with less than 10 seconds left in the 4th is gonna have their PAT blocked and returned with the other team winning. And it's gonna be amazing. I just wouldn't want to be the head coach that it happens to, lol.
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New wrinkle with new extra point rules at end of games
Sep 13, 2015 at 11:38 PM
- captveg
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Sep 13, 2015 at 11:41 PM
- 49AllTheTime
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Always go for 1
Sep 13, 2015 at 11:42 PM
- captveg
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Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Always go for 1
Why risk losing the game with a blocked PAT and a return for 2 pts, even if its remote? Increasing the lead from 1 to 2 is meaningless.
Sep 13, 2015 at 11:45 PM
- 49AllTheTime
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Originally posted by captveg:Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:Always go for 1
Why risk losing the game with a blocked PAT and a return for 2 pts, even if its remote? Increasing the lead from 1 to 2 is meaningless.
PATs have been like 95% good
Sep 13, 2015 at 11:50 PM
- captveg
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Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Originally posted by captveg:
Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Always go for 1
Why risk losing the game with a blocked PAT and a return for 2 pts, even if its remote? Increasing the lead from 1 to 2 is meaningless.
PATs have been like 95% good
A miss of course would mean nothing.
But the rule change that the other team can score 2 pts off of a blocked kick means that some of those 5% misses are blocked, and sometimes blocked kicks are returned for scores.... Which means that, while small, its riskier to attempt the 1 pt kick than it is to down the ball after the snap and NOT attempt the kick
Sitting on the ball = 100% chance the kick is not blocked and returned for 2 to cause you to lose the game.
Attempting the kick to increase your lead from 1 point to 2 pts (no benefit to the lead increase) = small, but not impossible, chance you could lose the game by having the kick blocked and returned for 2 pts.
[ Edited by captveg on Sep 13, 2015 at 11:51 PM ]
Sep 13, 2015 at 11:53 PM
- 49AllTheTime
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Originally posted by captveg:Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:Originally posted by captveg:Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:Always go for 1
Why risk losing the game with a blocked PAT and a return for 2 pts, even if its remote? Increasing the lead from 1 to 2 is meaningless.
PATs have been like 95% good
A miss of course would mean nothing.
But the rule change that the other team can score 2 pts off of a blocked kick means that some of those 5% misses are blocked, and sometimes blocked kicks are returned for scores.... Which means that, while small, its riskier to attempt the 1 pt kick than it is to down the ball after the snap and NOT attempt the kick
Sitting on the ball = 100% chance the kick is not blocked and returned for 2 to cause you to lose the game.
Attempting the kick to increase your lead from 1 point to 2 pts (no benefit to the lead increase) = small, but not impossible, chance you could lose the game by having the kick blocked and returned for 2 pts.
Can't play scared or things like that really happen and you lose
Sep 13, 2015 at 11:57 PM
- captveg
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Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Can't play scared or things like that really happen and you lose
WTF do you mean play scared? It's called playing SMART.
Fact #1: With so little time left in regulation (~10 secs), a 2 point lead has ZERO VALUE over a 1 point lead.
Fact #2: Sitting on the kick attempt eliminates one way you could go from being up 1 point to being down 1 point.
There's NO DISADVANTAGE to sitting on the conversion attempt in this scenario. There IS a (remote) chance that attempting the kick will cause your team to lose.
Correct decision: Don't attempt the kick!
[ Edited by captveg on Sep 13, 2015 at 11:59 PM ]
Sep 14, 2015 at 12:47 AM
- captveg
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And not surprising, but college coaches already know this as they've had the risk of a PAT kick being returned for points for years already:
For example, on October 24, 2009, Iowa scored as time expired to take a 15–13 lead over Michigan State. Making the conversion would have made no difference in Iowa winning the game, but Iowa still had to attempt it, so Ricky Stanzi simply knelt down, as a return by Michigan State would have tied the game and forced overtime
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conversion_%28gridiron_football%29
For example, on October 24, 2009, Iowa scored as time expired to take a 15–13 lead over Michigan State. Making the conversion would have made no difference in Iowa winning the game, but Iowa still had to attempt it, so Ricky Stanzi simply knelt down, as a return by Michigan State would have tied the game and forced overtime
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conversion_%28gridiron_football%29
Sep 14, 2015 at 10:48 AM
- Dr_Bill_Walsh
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stupid rule in principle anyways
if I'm defending a PAT or 2PA, and return it all that way (length of the field) in the opposite direction for a momentum-swinging score, give me the my full goddamn 6 pts!
if I'm defending a PAT or 2PA, and return it all that way (length of the field) in the opposite direction for a momentum-swinging score, give me the my full goddamn 6 pts!
Sep 14, 2015 at 10:53 AM
- Dr_Bill_Walsh
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that being said, if there's one coach and team that such a gut-wrenching type of loss would be MOST deserved upon, it's PC & the OKC Thunderhawks
he'd boneheaded enough and that team is aggressive in trying their "luck" enough to where scenario occurring in a loss for them would be hilarious
he'd boneheaded enough and that team is aggressive in trying their "luck" enough to where scenario occurring in a loss for them would be hilarious
Sep 14, 2015 at 10:53 AM
- LaMattsBlue
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If you block a PAT attempt and run it back it is 1 point, not 2. So they would tie, not lose if they were already ahead by 1.
Sep 14, 2015 at 11:16 AM
- captveg
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Originally posted by LaMattsBlue:
If you block a PAT attempt and run it back it is 1 point, not 2. So they would tie, not lose if they were already ahead by 1.
No, it's two. Peter King is wrong. (He discussed a similar scenario to this in MMQB this morning).
"According to the rule change, if the defense returns a blocked extra point or failed two-point try for a touchdown (i.e. on an interception), they will be awarded two points."
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000493347/article/nfl-moves-extra-point-to-15yard-line-for-2015-season
Sep 14, 2015 at 12:12 PM
- 49er-from-Yavin-IV
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Depending on the amount of time left in the game I'd say go for two, for the three point lead.
Yes, there is the danger of losing the ball and the D getting two points on a return, but I'd rather play to win or to keep the possibility of the win alive as best as possible. You go ahead by three, the opposing team has to work to survive (by getting in FG position, etc.) and the clock runs out.
Yes, there is the danger of losing the ball and the D getting two points on a return, but I'd rather play to win or to keep the possibility of the win alive as best as possible. You go ahead by three, the opposing team has to work to survive (by getting in FG position, etc.) and the clock runs out.
Sep 14, 2015 at 4:22 PM
- Godsleftsock
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You go for 2 in that situation
Sep 14, 2015 at 4:29 PM
- socalniner
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