Is Seattle going to have cap casualties?

Originally posted by JoRo:
I come here to see what the niners glasses look like, as I stated. I've since learned that the Seahawks won't even make the playoffs so I don't even need to bother watching their games, I can just go back to being a bandwagon fan (nevermind that PFF just released their roster rankings and Seattle is #1 again).

You stated they wanted to restructure Okung ASAP and now your quote says "they could consider". Your list of FA is inconsistent as well. You have both KJ wright and Bobby Wagner on there. Wright has 1 year left on his deal, Wagner is under contract for 2 years. Why are they both on that list? Kam was extended last season, so I'm not sure why that wasn't in the salary cap from before. I'm assuming your WR comments are about Rice, who may not even make they 53 man roster, or more likely will start the season on the PUP list. I think the only position that is more secure than WR is the secondary. The WR corps of Harvin, Baldwin, Richardson and Norwood are all locked up for at least 3 years.

I'm sure if you were to put together a similar list for just about every team in the league it would look similar since you are going off the 90 man roster and shocker, a lot of those guys aren't under long term contracts.

Nothing wrong with coming in here but who's saying the Hawks won't make the playoffs this year? They are a great team...should be ranked #1 until unseated. This post, and you've missed this point, is about long-term sustainability for success and 2015 looks really bad for your team (as of right now). We used real cap numbers and FA lists to demonstrate that. This isn't speculation, it's fact...granted those two sites used are constantly being updated so continue to check back on a regular basis. But the bottom line is, it's going to be very very difficult to sustain success after this year and esp. once Wilson signs his contract which in turn, will affect the resigning of the aforementioned 2015 FA's listed. That's all. Anything can happen over the next 12 months but there are no rose colored glasses here when looking at cap and FA. It is what it is...for both teams. Now that CK is signed, all we genuinely have left to sign is Crabtree and Iupati (not critical) and Aldon two years from now. That was the overall point. Will the Hawks still be a very good team this year? Absolutely! And I look forward to it.

I don't think so that would be possible :D

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by JoRo:
I come here to see what the niners glasses look like, as I stated. I've since learned that the Seahawks won't even make the playoffs so I don't even need to bother watching their games, I can just go back to being a bandwagon fan (nevermind that PFF just released their roster rankings and Seattle is #1 again).

You stated they wanted to restructure Okung ASAP and now your quote says "they could consider". Your list of FA is inconsistent as well. You have both KJ wright and Bobby Wagner on there. Wright has 1 year left on his deal, Wagner is under contract for 2 years. Why are they both on that list? Kam was extended last season, so I'm not sure why that wasn't in the salary cap from before. I'm assuming your WR comments are about Rice, who may not even make they 53 man roster, or more likely will start the season on the PUP list. I think the only position that is more secure than WR is the secondary. The WR corps of Harvin, Baldwin, Richardson and Norwood are all locked up for at least 3 years.

I'm sure if you were to put together a similar list for just about every team in the league it would look similar since you are going off the 90 man roster and shocker, a lot of those guys aren't under long term contracts.

Nothing wrong with coming in here but who's saying the Hawks won't make the playoffs this year? They are a great team...should be ranked #1 until unseated. This post, and you've missed this point, is about long-term sustainability for success and 2015 looks really bad for your team (as of right now). We used real cap numbers and FA lists to demonstrate that. This isn't speculation, it's fact...granted those two sites used are constantly being updated so continue to check back on a regular basis. But the bottom line is, it's going to be very very difficult to sustain success after this year and esp. once Wilson signs his contract which in turn, will affect the resigning of the aforementioned 2015 FA's listed. That's all. Anything can happen over the next 12 months but there are no rose colored glasses here when looking at cap and FA. It is what it is...for both teams. Now that CK is signed, all we genuinely have left to sign is Crabtree and Iupati (not critical) and Aldon two years from now. That was the overall point. Will the Hawks still be a very good team this year? Absolutely! And I look forward to it.

I am aware of the issues that the Hawks have going forward. But as I've been saying, every team has these issues. Just go read the Kaep Casualties thread and you will see that both teams are facing a similar situation of young QB's breaking the bank. Much like in that thread where everyone is pointing out all of the younger replacements, the Hawks have been doing the same thing.

You mentioned Malcom Smith, the Hawks drafted Kevin Pierre Lewis who looks like an identical LB to Smith. Maxwell is a FA and he will walk because there's no way they can drop another $6-10m (depending on how he plays) into the secondary again, but Jeremy Lane has already played some spot duty at CB and they also drafted Tharold Simon last year in anticipation of losing Browner or now Maxwell. Schneider know's what he is doing. They have targeted specific players to keep and others to let walk. They have been sticking to the plan so far this offseason. Re-sign Bennett, Sherman, Thomas, Baldwin and let Tate, Giacomini, Mcdonald, Browner, Thurmond and Mcquistan walk. They made the hard cuts in Clemons and Bryant. Next year will be the same. I don't expect Lynch back after 2014. Christine Michael is expected to step in and pick up some of the load this season and probably shoulder it next. Much like SF, the Hawks have a "redshirt" class as well. Jordan Hill, Jesse Williams, Tharold Simon, Greg Scruggs all were on the IR last year and all are expected to contribute this year.

Originally posted by JoRo:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by JoRo:
I come here to see what the niners glasses look like, as I stated. I've since learned that the Seahawks won't even make the playoffs so I don't even need to bother watching their games, I can just go back to being a bandwagon fan (nevermind that PFF just released their roster rankings and Seattle is #1 again).

You stated they wanted to restructure Okung ASAP and now your quote says "they could consider". Your list of FA is inconsistent as well. You have both KJ wright and Bobby Wagner on there. Wright has 1 year left on his deal, Wagner is under contract for 2 years. Why are they both on that list? Kam was extended last season, so I'm not sure why that wasn't in the salary cap from before. I'm assuming your WR comments are about Rice, who may not even make they 53 man roster, or more likely will start the season on the PUP list. I think the only position that is more secure than WR is the secondary. The WR corps of Harvin, Baldwin, Richardson and Norwood are all locked up for at least 3 years.

I'm sure if you were to put together a similar list for just about every team in the league it would look similar since you are going off the 90 man roster and shocker, a lot of those guys aren't under long term contracts.

Nothing wrong with coming in here but who's saying the Hawks won't make the playoffs this year? They are a great team...should be ranked #1 until unseated. This post, and you've missed this point, is about long-term sustainability for success and 2015 looks really bad for your team (as of right now). We used real cap numbers and FA lists to demonstrate that. This isn't speculation, it's fact...granted those two sites used are constantly being updated so continue to check back on a regular basis. But the bottom line is, it's going to be very very difficult to sustain success after this year and esp. once Wilson signs his contract which in turn, will affect the resigning of the aforementioned 2015 FA's listed. That's all. Anything can happen over the next 12 months but there are no rose colored glasses here when looking at cap and FA. It is what it is...for both teams. Now that CK is signed, all we genuinely have left to sign is Crabtree and Iupati (not critical) and Aldon two years from now. That was the overall point. Will the Hawks still be a very good team this year? Absolutely! And I look forward to it.

I am aware of the issues that the Hawks have going forward. But as I've been saying, every team has these issues. Just go read the Kaep Casualties thread and you will see that both teams are facing a similar situation of young QB's breaking the bank. Much like in that thread where everyone is pointing out all of the younger replacements, the Hawks have been doing the same thing.

You mentioned Malcom Smith, the Hawks drafted Kevin Pierre Lewis who looks like an identical LB to Smith. Maxwell is a FA and he will walk because there's no way they can drop another $6-10m (depending on how he plays) into the secondary again, but Jeremy Lane has already played some spot duty at CB and they also drafted Tharold Simon last year in anticipation of losing Browner or now Maxwell. Schneider know's what he is doing. They have targeted specific players to keep and others to let walk. They have been sticking to the plan so far this offseason. Re-sign Bennett, Sherman, Thomas, Baldwin and let Tate, Giacomini, Mcdonald, Browner, Thurmond and Mcquistan walk. They made the hard cuts in Clemons and Bryant. Next year will be the same. I don't expect Lynch back after 2014. Christine Michael is expected to step in and pick up some of the load this season and probably shoulder it next. Much like SF, the Hawks have a "redshirt" class as well. Jordan Hill, Jesse Williams, Tharold Simon, Greg Scruggs all were on the IR last year and all are expected to contribute this year.

Excellent and this is great. As a Hawk fan, you can bring value to this discussion. Perhaps you can run the numbers yourself and demonstrate that info here for all of us (like I did above). If you find more updated info, feel free to build upon/edit it. I genuinely would like your perspective from 2015 on.

I do disagree that every team has these issues. Some teams can't buy enough FA's just to get up to the cap, others like the Raven's destroyed their cap and team as a result of big contracts. Every team does have at least one key FA turnover, however, but that's beneath this post/point.

As to CK's deal, he didn't come close to breaking the bank (hurting us fiscally) and is very "team friendly." In fact, it was structured in a way so we COULD sign guys like Crabtree and Iupati. That's the key. It will most likely be the model or at least, the starting point for QB contracts this year for guys like Cam, Alex, etc. and Wilson, RGII and Luck next year at this time (of which will be much higher in 12 months). That's the point.

So bring the numbers JoRo...very curious to see it in writing from a Hawk's perspective!

I'm far too lazy to go through all of the cap numbers, I was just trying to point out that similar to SF, Seattle has a lot of players they are going to be counting on to fill in for guys that will walk.

Some quick off the cuff math via http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Seahawks&Year=2015


Starting at $116m already under contract(top 51 players). Add $4m for Wilson's cap hit (probably going to have a similar low cap hit initially like Kaep), and save $7.5m for cutting Lynch. Another cut they might pursue is Unger. He'd save $4.5m and really struggled last year. That brings them to $108.0m, which leaves $32.0m in cap space. Guys they need to look at re-signing are Wright, Avril. I'm not sure if they want to re-sign Avril or not. Depends on how the DL looks this year. Maxwell will walk, I think he's going to have a monster year this year and will easily command $7-8m+ netting a nice comp pick. Smith is gone as I said, they really have a glut at LB and don't have enough spots for the guys they do have.


If they do re-sign Wright at let's say $5m and Avril at $7.5m (same as Bennett) that leaves $19.5m for filling whatever other spots they need.


I think you were off by a year. It's not until 2016 that the real pain will start to kick in. I don't think they are any worse off than SF though. Here's what 2016 looks like for both teams' top 10 (with me guessing at Wilsons cap hit).

Russell Wilson$ 19,000,000.00
Colin Kaepernick$ 18,765,600.00

Richard Sherman$ 14,769,000.00
Patrick Willis$ 9,606,750.00

Percy Harvin$ 12,300,000.00
NaVorro Bowman$ 9,554,000.00

Earl Thomas$ 9,900,000.00
Ahmad Brooks$ 8,850,000.00

Michael Bennett$ 7,000,000.00
Antoine Bethea$ 6,250,000.00

Kam Chancellor$ 6,100,000.00
Steve Johnson$ 6,125,000.00

Max Unger$ 5,600,000.00
Joe Staley$ 6,100,000.00

Steven Hauschka$ 3,525,000.00
Anthony Davis$ 5,150,000.00

Paul Richardson$ 1,285,319.00
Tramaine Brock$ 3,900,000.00

Christine Michael$ 1,073,682.00
Andy Lee$ 3,333,000.00

Seattle total $ 80,553,001.00
SF total $ 77,634,350.00

Hawk Fan:

Here is one Niner perspective. I hate the Hawks. But, greatly respect them. How could one not, honestly? How could you not say the best game of the year was Niners at Hawks in NFCC game? Peyton sure gave you a real good game, in a neutral environ?

But my take on Hawk fans and in the NFL fans in general, that the Seahawks are now superior to the Niners. But, just like Niner fans in 2012, I cautioned "until someone wins in the others house, we are basically equal". And that hasn't changed. All our regular season games in CLink in the Harbaugh/Carroll era, Niners have looked completely lost. But in the NFCCG, the Niners took a big step playing well in CLink. Just not for 4 quarters.

And you look so hard at Bowman / Aldon Smith. Which most Niner fans see this as last year again. Willis and Aldon missed 4+ games last year. Plus we lost Culliver and Crabtree and were in a tough spot at WR.

Talent injection: Let's say FA was about equal for both teams. You have nothing like our "red shirts" (Lattimore/Carradine/Dial). When you got your top two draft picks, we had six. With our red shirts of Lattimore and Carradine (leaving out Dial since he wouldn't go in top 100 this year - most likely) it is like 8 to 2.

You should be a little more nervous this season.

Originally posted by JoRo:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by JoRo:
I come here to see what the niners glasses look like, as I stated. I've since learned that the Seahawks won't even make the playoffs so I don't even need to bother watching their games, I can just go back to being a bandwagon fan (nevermind that PFF just released their roster rankings and Seattle is #1 again).

You stated they wanted to restructure Okung ASAP and now your quote says "they could consider". Your list of FA is inconsistent as well. You have both KJ wright and Bobby Wagner on there. Wright has 1 year left on his deal, Wagner is under contract for 2 years. Why are they both on that list? Kam was extended last season, so I'm not sure why that wasn't in the salary cap from before. I'm assuming your WR comments are about Rice, who may not even make they 53 man roster, or more likely will start the season on the PUP list. I think the only position that is more secure than WR is the secondary. The WR corps of Harvin, Baldwin, Richardson and Norwood are all locked up for at least 3 years.

I'm sure if you were to put together a similar list for just about every team in the league it would look similar since you are going off the 90 man roster and shocker, a lot of those guys aren't under long term contracts.

Nothing wrong with coming in here but who's saying the Hawks won't make the playoffs this year? They are a great team...should be ranked #1 until unseated. This post, and you've missed this point, is about long-term sustainability for success and 2015 looks really bad for your team (as of right now). We used real cap numbers and FA lists to demonstrate that. This isn't speculation, it's fact...granted those two sites used are constantly being updated so continue to check back on a regular basis. But the bottom line is, it's going to be very very difficult to sustain success after this year and esp. once Wilson signs his contract which in turn, will affect the resigning of the aforementioned 2015 FA's listed. That's all. Anything can happen over the next 12 months but there are no rose colored glasses here when looking at cap and FA. It is what it is...for both teams. Now that CK is signed, all we genuinely have left to sign is Crabtree and Iupati (not critical) and Aldon two years from now. That was the overall point. Will the Hawks still be a very good team this year? Absolutely! And I look forward to it.

I am aware of the issues that the Hawks have going forward. But as I've been saying, every team has these issues. Just go read the Kaep Casualties thread and you will see that both teams are facing a similar situation of young QB's breaking the bank. Much like in that thread where everyone is pointing out all of the younger replacements, the Hawks have been doing the same thing.

You mentioned Malcom Smith, the Hawks drafted Kevin Pierre Lewis who looks like an identical LB to Smith. Maxwell is a FA and he will walk because there's no way they can drop another $6-10m (depending on how he plays) into the secondary again, but Jeremy Lane has already played some spot duty at CB and they also drafted Tharold Simon last year in anticipation of losing Browner or now Maxwell. Schneider know's what he is doing. They have targeted specific players to keep and others to let walk. They have been sticking to the plan so far this offseason. Re-sign Bennett, Sherman, Thomas, Baldwin and let Tate, Giacomini, Mcdonald, Browner, Thurmond and Mcquistan walk. They made the hard cuts in Clemons and Bryant. Next year will be the same. I don't expect Lynch back after 2014. Christine Michael is expected to step in and pick up some of the load this season and probably shoulder it next. Much like SF, the Hawks have a "redshirt" class as well. Jordan Hill, Jesse Williams, Tharold Simon, Greg Scruggs all were on the IR last year and all are expected to contribute this year.

Well 1st off, Kaep's deal did not break the bank, far from it. So maybe you should do a little research before making blind statements. 2nd, as NC pointed out, provide some breakdown/#'s like he did rather than just popping off and furthering the stereotype of Seahawks fans.

Originally posted by JoRo:
I'm far too lazy to go through all of the cap numbers, I was just trying to point out that similar to SF, Seattle has a lot of players they are going to be counting on to fill in for guys that will walk.

Some quick off the cuff math via http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Seahawks&Year=2015


Starting at $116m already under contract(top 51 players). Add $4m for Wilson's cap hit (probably going to have a similar low cap hit initially like Kaep), and save $7.5m for cutting Lynch. Another cut they might pursue is Unger. He'd save $4.5m and really struggled last year. That brings them to $108.0m, which leaves $32.0m in cap space. Guys they need to look at re-signing are Wright, Avril. I'm not sure if they want to re-sign Avril or not. Depends on how the DL looks this year. Maxwell will walk, I think he's going to have a monster year this year and will easily command $7-8m+ netting a nice comp pick. Smith is gone as I said, they really have a glut at LB and don't have enough spots for the guys they do have.


If they do re-sign Wright at let's say $5m and Avril at $7.5m (same as Bennett) that leaves $19.5m for filling whatever other spots they need.


I think you were off by a year. It's not until 2016 that the real pain will start to kick in. I don't think they are any worse off than SF though. Here's what 2016 looks like for both teams' top 10 (with me guessing at Wilsons cap hit).

Russell Wilson$ 19,000,000.00
Colin Kaepernick$ 18,765,600.00

Richard Sherman$ 14,769,000.00
Patrick Willis$ 9,606,750.00

Percy Harvin$ 12,300,000.00
NaVorro Bowman$ 9,554,000.00

Earl Thomas$ 9,900,000.00
Ahmad Brooks$ 8,850,000.00

Michael Bennett$ 7,000,000.00
Antoine Bethea$ 6,250,000.00

Kam Chancellor$ 6,100,000.00
Steve Johnson$ 6,125,000.00

Max Unger$ 5,600,000.00
Joe Staley$ 6,100,000.00

Steven Hauschka$ 3,525,000.00
Anthony Davis$ 5,150,000.00

Paul Richardson$ 1,285,319.00
Tramaine Brock$ 3,900,000.00

Christine Michael$ 1,073,682.00
Andy Lee$ 3,333,000.00

Seattle total $ 80,553,001.00
SF total $ 77,634,350.00

I very much agree with your assessment of going the way of an extension for Wilson (like with CK), keeping the final year low to allow for cap space. Good assessment on 2016 as well. But that's a hard one to project b/c a guy like Bethea is probably off our team as the rookie Ward will be ready to take over his role (as an example). But to your point about 2016 being the more challenging year (potential drop off in talent d/t the effects of the cap), that very well may be depending on the Wilson contract and how it is structured. If he takes the same route as CK, you're probably right on point. We also have to remember that the team cap continues to increase each year as well and the contracts QB's sign now will be dwarfed by those signed 12 months from now which is why so many are excited about CK's contract and it being "team friendly." But this is why my focus has been on 2015...easier to predict as contracts are closer (in time) to guestimate. If you do get the chance to fully break it down, put it down and I'll do the same (for us, or have our resident cap expert in AB81Rules). No doubt, both teams have stellar FO's and there are always ways to manipulate the cap. Tough cuts or losses, like you noted, are coming...just feel that once we sign Crabtree and Iupati and Aldon in 2 or 3 years (Franchise tag). we're pretty locked up. Even if we DO lose Crabtree, we have a 1,000 yard receiver in Stevie Johnson singed LT for his place...Iupati, several options there as well. It's going to be fun watching these two franchises duke it out over the years either way.

PS: We should also keep in mind our identities. Your team is built on pass rush and play action passing d/t the effectiveness of the running game. When you lose all-world Lynch and if you can't sign Avril (you'll probably never have the cheap pass rushing rotation like the one you had last year...signing Bennett along meant several other big losses IMHO) that is going to put a ton of pressure on Wilson and the passing game. At the same taken, when we lose Gore, we already have Lattimore, Hyde, Hunter/James, etc. We'll lose Justin Smith (our pass rushers are at the OLB positions) but we already have Tank and for Brooks in a couple years, we'll have Lemonier/Lynch/Skuta and if Aldon misses any time, we were 5-0 w/o him. I think this is the underline theme tied to cap effects.

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by JoRo:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by JoRo:
I come here to see what the niners glasses look like, as I stated. I've since learned that the Seahawks won't even make the playoffs so I don't even need to bother watching their games, I can just go back to being a bandwagon fan (nevermind that PFF just released their roster rankings and Seattle is #1 again).

You stated they wanted to restructure Okung ASAP and now your quote says "they could consider". Your list of FA is inconsistent as well. You have both KJ wright and Bobby Wagner on there. Wright has 1 year left on his deal, Wagner is under contract for 2 years. Why are they both on that list? Kam was extended last season, so I'm not sure why that wasn't in the salary cap from before. I'm assuming your WR comments are about Rice, who may not even make they 53 man roster, or more likely will start the season on the PUP list. I think the only position that is more secure than WR is the secondary. The WR corps of Harvin, Baldwin, Richardson and Norwood are all locked up for at least 3 years.

I'm sure if you were to put together a similar list for just about every team in the league it would look similar since you are going off the 90 man roster and shocker, a lot of those guys aren't under long term contracts.

Nothing wrong with coming in here but who's saying the Hawks won't make the playoffs this year? They are a great team...should be ranked #1 until unseated. This post, and you've missed this point, is about long-term sustainability for success and 2015 looks really bad for your team (as of right now). We used real cap numbers and FA lists to demonstrate that. This isn't speculation, it's fact...granted those two sites used are constantly being updated so continue to check back on a regular basis. But the bottom line is, it's going to be very very difficult to sustain success after this year and esp. once Wilson signs his contract which in turn, will affect the resigning of the aforementioned 2015 FA's listed. That's all. Anything can happen over the next 12 months but there are no rose colored glasses here when looking at cap and FA. It is what it is...for both teams. Now that CK is signed, all we genuinely have left to sign is Crabtree and Iupati (not critical) and Aldon two years from now. That was the overall point. Will the Hawks still be a very good team this year? Absolutely! And I look forward to it.

I am aware of the issues that the Hawks have going forward. But as I've been saying, every team has these issues. Just go read the Kaep Casualties thread and you will see that both teams are facing a similar situation of young QB's breaking the bank. Much like in that thread where everyone is pointing out all of the younger replacements, the Hawks have been doing the same thing.

You mentioned Malcom Smith, the Hawks drafted Kevin Pierre Lewis who looks like an identical LB to Smith. Maxwell is a FA and he will walk because there's no way they can drop another $6-10m (depending on how he plays) into the secondary again, but Jeremy Lane has already played some spot duty at CB and they also drafted Tharold Simon last year in anticipation of losing Browner or now Maxwell. Schneider know's what he is doing. They have targeted specific players to keep and others to let walk. They have been sticking to the plan so far this offseason. Re-sign Bennett, Sherman, Thomas, Baldwin and let Tate, Giacomini, Mcdonald, Browner, Thurmond and Mcquistan walk. They made the hard cuts in Clemons and Bryant. Next year will be the same. I don't expect Lynch back after 2014. Christine Michael is expected to step in and pick up some of the load this season and probably shoulder it next. Much like SF, the Hawks have a "redshirt" class as well. Jordan Hill, Jesse Williams, Tharold Simon, Greg Scruggs all were on the IR last year and all are expected to contribute this year.

Well 1st off, Kaep's deal did not break the bank, far from it. So maybe you should do a little research before making blind statements. 2nd, as NC pointed out, provide some breakdown/#'s like he did rather than just popping off and furthering the stereotype of Seahawks fans.

While it may not be Jerry Jonesesque breaking the bank by redoing Romo's contract every year, here are Kaep's cap hits by year

2014 - $3.8m cheap
2015 - $17.3m not cheap
2016 - $18.8m still not cheap
2017 - $21.4m big bucks
2018 - $21.9m big bucks
2019 - $21.2m big bucks
2020 - $23.4m bigger bucks

While SF does have an out, you still have to have a QB to replace him so unless you find one, he's your guy.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by JoRo:
I'm far too lazy to go through all of the cap numbers, I was just trying to point out that similar to SF, Seattle has a lot of players they are going to be counting on to fill in for guys that will walk.

Some quick off the cuff math via http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Seahawks&Year=2015


Starting at $116m already under contract(top 51 players). Add $4m for Wilson's cap hit (probably going to have a similar low cap hit initially like Kaep), and save $7.5m for cutting Lynch. Another cut they might pursue is Unger. He'd save $4.5m and really struggled last year. That brings them to $108.0m, which leaves $32.0m in cap space. Guys they need to look at re-signing are Wright, Avril. I'm not sure if they want to re-sign Avril or not. Depends on how the DL looks this year. Maxwell will walk, I think he's going to have a monster year this year and will easily command $7-8m+ netting a nice comp pick. Smith is gone as I said, they really have a glut at LB and don't have enough spots for the guys they do have.


If they do re-sign Wright at let's say $5m and Avril at $7.5m (same as Bennett) that leaves $19.5m for filling whatever other spots they need.


I think you were off by a year. It's not until 2016 that the real pain will start to kick in. I don't think they are any worse off than SF though. Here's what 2016 looks like for both teams' top 10 (with me guessing at Wilsons cap hit).

Russell Wilson$ 19,000,000.00
Colin Kaepernick$ 18,765,600.00

Richard Sherman$ 14,769,000.00
Patrick Willis$ 9,606,750.00

Percy Harvin$ 12,300,000.00
NaVorro Bowman$ 9,554,000.00

Earl Thomas$ 9,900,000.00
Ahmad Brooks$ 8,850,000.00

Michael Bennett$ 7,000,000.00
Antoine Bethea$ 6,250,000.00

Kam Chancellor$ 6,100,000.00
Steve Johnson$ 6,125,000.00

Max Unger$ 5,600,000.00
Joe Staley$ 6,100,000.00

Steven Hauschka$ 3,525,000.00
Anthony Davis$ 5,150,000.00

Paul Richardson$ 1,285,319.00
Tramaine Brock$ 3,900,000.00

Christine Michael$ 1,073,682.00
Andy Lee$ 3,333,000.00

Seattle total $ 80,553,001.00
SF total $ 77,634,350.00

I very much agree with your assessment of going the way of an extension for Wilson (like with CK), keeping the final year low to allow for cap space. Good assessment on 2016 as well. But that's a hard one to project b/c a guy like Bethea is probably off our team as the rookie Ward will be ready to take over his role (as an example). But to your point about 2016 being the more challenging year (potential drop off in talent d/t the effects of the cap), that very well may be depending on the Wilson contract and how it is structured. If he takes the same route as CK, you're probably right on point. We also have to remember that the team cap continues to increase each year as well and the contracts QB's sign now will be dwarfed by those signed 12 months from now which is why so many are excited about CK's contract and it being "team friendly." But this is why my focus has been on 2015...easier to predict as contracts are closer (in time) to guestimate. If you do get the chance to fully break it down, put it down and I'll do the same (for us, or have our resident cap expert in AB81Rules). No doubt, both teams have stellar FO's and there are always ways to manipulate the cap. Tough cuts or losses, like you noted, are coming...just feel that once we sign Crabtree and Iupati and Aldon in 2 or 3 years (Franchise tag). we're pretty locked up. Even if we DO lose Crabtree, we have a 1,000 yard receiver in Stevie Johnson singed LT for his place...Iupati, several options there as well. It's going to be fun watching these two franchises duke it out over the years either way.

2016 is hard to project. The Hawks cap doesn't have Okung who will inevitably be the top 10 and SF doesn't have Aldon or Crabtree (if they are re-signed, which it sounds like they might be). I'm certainly not a cap guru (although if they'd pay me I could certainly become one!) so I mostly just glance at the sites like OTC and Spotrac for the info that I need.

Originally posted by JoRo:
While it may not be Jerry Jonesesque breaking the bank by redoing Romo's contract every year, here are Kaep's cap hits by year

2014 - $3.8m cheap
2015 - $17.3m not cheap
2016 - $18.8m still not cheap
2017 - $21.4m big bucks
2018 - $21.9m big bucks
2019 - $21.2m big bucks
2020 - $23.4m bigger bucks

While SF does have an out, you still have to have a QB to replace him so unless you find one, he's your guy.

We've got $103M invested for 2015 (with CK's cap) in the top 51 or $110.7M overall. The cap is expected to rise to $140M for 2015. We should have no problems signing Crabtree and Iupati today, if we wanted to: http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=49ers&Year=2015

Originally posted by NCommand:

PS: We should also keep in mind our identities. Your team is built on pass rush and play action passing d/t the effectiveness of the running game. When you lose all-world Lynch and if you can't sign Avril (you'll probably never have the cheap pass rushing rotation like the one you had last year...signing Bennett along meant several other big losses IMHO) that is going to put a ton of pressure on Wilson and the passing game. At the same taken, when we lose Gore, we already have Lattimore, Hyde, Hunter/James, etc. We'll lose Justin Smith (our pass rushers are at the OLB positions) but we already have Tank and for Brooks in a couple years, we'll have Lemonier/Lynch/Skuta and if Aldon misses any time, we were 5-0 w/o him. I think this is the underline theme tied to cap effects.

This is the thing I'm trying to convey on here. You guys are always talking about the guys who you have waiting in the wings and I'm saying the Hawks have a similar situation. You have Hyde/Lattimer, we have Michael. You have Tank/Dial, we have Scruggs/Williams. We have Tharold Simon who sounds like he's Brandon Browner jr. from the practice reports. I'm just saying I think the Hawks have just as much depth as they did last year. A few things that should go in our favor this year, I highly doubt the OL has 3 starters out for half the season. Percy Harvin is healthy. We drafted a real deep threat in Richardson. I think the games are going to be just as epic as they have been over the last 2 seasons (since Wilson joined the team). I would lay down money on SF or Sea making the SB. I tend to lean towards the Hawks, because I don't think they are my team and I don't think they will miss a beat from last year, but then you guys tend to lean towards SF because they are your team and you think they've improved.

Originally posted by JoRo:
This is the thing I'm trying to convey on here. You guys are always talking about the guys who you have waiting in the wings and I'm saying the Hawks have a similar situation. You have Hyde/Lattimer, we have Michael. You have Tank/Dial, we have Scruggs/Williams. We have Tharold Simon who sounds like he's Brandon Browner jr. from the practice reports. I'm just saying I think the Hawks have just as much depth as they did last year. A few things that should go in our favor this year, I highly doubt the OL has 3 starters out for half the season. Percy Harvin is healthy. We drafted a real deep threat in Richardson. I think the games are going to be just as epic as they have been over the last 2 seasons (since Wilson joined the team). I would lay down money on SF or Sea making the SB. I tend to lean towards the Hawks, because I don't think they are my team and I don't think they will miss a beat from last year, but then you guys tend to lean towards SF because they are your team and you think they've improved.

That would be another fun projection topic. This is something I think both teams have excelled at...developing talent. It would be nice to compare the losses with the most likely replacements and see if we have a drop off in talent esp. at the critical positions (that make up the offensive and defensive identities).

I think the Hawks have splurged with enormous contracts with Harvin, Okung, Sherman, Thomas and soon-to-be Wilson, to name a few. Eventually, that's going to catch up with you, whether that's in 2015 or 2016. But we'll keep an eye on it for both teams!

Regarding the cap, we can just keep up with the sites as we go into the year as new contracts are signed and revisit as we go; they are usually on top of things re: regular updates. I still think you guys are in big trouble in 2015 (even more so in 2016 like you noted) but partially b/c of the point noted above; losing critical key players that effect your identity and an inability to sustain top talent d/t being bumped up against the cap like you are this year. Going forward, you, like us over the past 3 years, will NOT be players in FA anymore.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by JoRo:
This is the thing I'm trying to convey on here. You guys are always talking about the guys who you have waiting in the wings and I'm saying the Hawks have a similar situation. You have Hyde/Lattimer, we have Michael. You have Tank/Dial, we have Scruggs/Williams. We have Tharold Simon who sounds like he's Brandon Browner jr. from the practice reports. I'm just saying I think the Hawks have just as much depth as they did last year. A few things that should go in our favor this year, I highly doubt the OL has 3 starters out for half the season. Percy Harvin is healthy. We drafted a real deep threat in Richardson. I think the games are going to be just as epic as they have been over the last 2 seasons (since Wilson joined the team). I would lay down money on SF or Sea making the SB. I tend to lean towards the Hawks, because I don't think they are my team and I don't think they will miss a beat from last year, but then you guys tend to lean towards SF because they are your team and you think they've improved.

That would be another fun projection topic. This is something I think both teams have excelled at...developing talent. It would be nice to compare the losses with the most likely replacements and see if we have a drop off in talent esp. at the critical positions (that make up the offensive and defensive identities).

I think the Hawks have splurged with enormous contracts with Harvin, Okung, Sherman, Thomas and soon-to-be Wilson, to name a few. Eventually, that's going to catch up with you, whether that's in 2015 or 2016. But we'll keep an eye on it for both teams!

Regarding the cap, we can just keep up with the sites as we go into the year as new contracts are signed and revisit as we go; they are usually on top of things re: regular updates. I still think you guys are in big trouble in 2015 (even more so in 2016 like you noted) but partially b/c of the point noted above; losing critical key players that effect your identity.

It would be interesting to keep track of the replacements. A small note on Okung, his contract is so large because he is on the old CBA rookie deal and he was the #7 overall pick. It's not large because they are shelling out dough, it's just the going rate for the #7 overall pick in 2010.

Originally posted by JoRo:
It would be interesting to keep track of the replacements. A small note on Okung, his contract is so large because he is on the old CBA rookie deal and he was the #7 overall pick. It's not large because they are shelling out dough, it's just the going rate for the #7 overall pick in 2010.

Agreed. Which is why they probably want to extend him, pay more in bonus and lower his cap hit. I know they've been talking about it for quite a while. I would imagine they'll try and get that done ASAP.