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How many games will the Chiefs win PYMWYMI

How many games will the Chiefs win PYMWYMI

Originally posted by JiksJuicy:
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by Wodwo:
This is another example of a bad attempt to use "advanced" statistics in evaluating NFL players.

Defense and special teams also score points. They also effect field position. I wonder how many games are actually won by special teams.

It's just way more complicated than that. Plus, it just sounds stupid to say that winning a game 20-17 is somehow better than 49-0.

Sorry, this stuff just bugs me sometimes. It's not directed at you.

LOL...harsh but true! Whenever I crunch numbers for negotiations or any other purpose I find it necessary to set a limit of how many variables considered (and hours doing so). They can go on forever! If you out variable the opponent you generally win. Over time the variables can be weeded out as extraneous, but judging a QB or offense you have twenty two moving pieces with unlimited individual and team variables. But it's much easier to say one player failed! So much easier to understand!

It's pretty simple math really and straight to the point. You score more points your going to win, you give up more points your going to lose. That's why I posted that, it proves just how simple it actually is. It's not rocket science.

What annoys me is this 2-25 idea. That's when all the complicated variables and "twenty two moving pieces" stuff comes in. Your using games from 2005 and 2006 when our defense sucked, and Alex was still 21 years old playing crappy football. That accounts for half of those losses people talk about. Those losses have no bearing on how Alex is playing today, nor does it take into account that our defense didn't even have Patrick Willis yet and VD was a rookie. Using games from 2006 when we got blown out by the Chiefs 41-0 and San Diego 48-19. So those games are all on one player? Has nothing to do with this entire team kind of sucking at the time?

So the stat we are discussing in the first place is the flawed logic with infinite variables. My point was that it's pretty simple that if TEAMS put up 24 pts, they are more than likely to win. Now I could make that "advanced" and prove that it's right, but again, it's pretty straight forward.

Wasn't criticizing you but we all can have fun with stats as long as they are taken for what they generally are...flawed. I love the old George Bernard Shaw quote, "If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion."

But, I agree with your conclusion that the argument was flawed and I recall who has used that argument ad nauseam on this site to criticize a former QB.
[ Edited by dtg_9er on Nov 26, 2013 at 7:03 AM ]
http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/article-2/Eric-Berry-We-have-to-step-up-to-the-plate/be48a038-f42d-4f3e-aedf-b0a6c63d72d8

"It makes me angry that we lost," Eric Berry said. "Our offense played a heck of a game and they put up a lot of points; we have to do our part. They bailed us out so many times; we have to step up to the plate and make those stops for them and when the game is on the line, we have to be able to do things. It didn't roll our way, but we'll get a handle on it. I'm sure our coaches will have something in mind for us and we'll work on that this week." "Our job is to put points on the board, every time we step out there," Jamaal Charles said. "Alex (Smith) did a great job. The WRs did a great job, as well as the RBs and TEs, too. We went out there and accomplished some goals, but it's about winning." Geoff Schwartz says despite the loss, the Chiefs accountability to each other, in all three phases, remains as strong as ever.
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/article-2/Eric-Berry-We-have-to-step-up-to-the-plate/be48a038-f42d-4f3e-aedf-b0a6c63d72d8

"It makes me angry that we lost," Eric Berry said. "Our offense played a heck of a game and they put up a lot of points; we have to do our part. They bailed us out so many times; we have to step up to the plate and make those stops for them and when the game is on the line, we have to be able to do things. It didn't roll our way, but we'll get a handle on it. I'm sure our coaches will have something in mind for us and we'll work on that this week." "Our job is to put points on the board, every time we step out there," Jamaal Charles said. "Alex (Smith) did a great job. The WRs did a great job, as well as the RBs and TEs, too. We went out there and accomplished some goals, but it's about winning." Geoff Schwartz says despite the loss, the Chiefs accountability to each other, in all three phases, remains as strong as ever.

has there been any flack for reid calling that time out on last drive, leaving more time on clock for chargers to go downfield?
Originally posted by hofer36:
has there been any flack for reid calling that time out on last drive, leaving more time on clock for chargers to go downfield?

Seems like at first, yeah. I haven't followed it or their fans griping much though.
Originally posted by hofer36:
has there been any flack for reid calling that time out on last drive, leaving more time on clock for chargers to go downfield?

He knew Smith is clutch with the go ahead score, so Andy took a proactive time out a couple of plays early, to regroup his defense before sending them back on to the field... yes they were that bad.
[ Edited by qnnhan7 on Nov 26, 2013 at 11:01 AM ]
just keep losing and improving that draft pick.
  • vaden
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 3,189
Reid has always had horrific clock management, as do many NFL coaches. Continues to baffle me that such highly paid, ostensibly intelligent professionals routinely fail at basic math.
Originally posted by vaden:
Reid has always had horrific clock management, as do many NFL coaches. Continues to baffle me that such highly paid, ostensibly intelligent professionals routinely fail at basic math.

yep that combined with the anti-clutch Donovan McChoke, it's the reason the Eagles lost the Super Bowl a few years back.
Originally posted by boast:
Originally posted by vaden:
Reid has always had horrific clock management, as do many NFL coaches. Continues to baffle me that such highly paid, ostensibly intelligent professionals routinely fail at basic math.

yep that combined with the anti-clutch Donovan McChoke, it's the reason the Eagles lost the Super Bowl a few years back.

It's one reason so many great OC/DCs never make good HCs. The administrative aspects of the game are just not there. It's also one reason Walsh gave up being OC, just had to step back from the nitty gritty to regain a handle on the big picture...but he had it all when he had the energy. I wonder if the complexity of the modern offenses demand too much detail for the HC to also be OC?
Yeah it looked like the cheifs D was toothless without Hali and Houston. Alex as always was clutch did everything he could have. Funny how many people forget how clutch he has been when the heat is turned up. Shoot 2011 woulda never happened if it weren't for his 5 or six come from behind victorys
I couldn't really believe Alex was throwing some damn good back shoulder throws.

Losing to the Chargers was trap gameish but I think the Chiefs can win the next game against the Bron......wait ...WTF am I saying?

I want them draft picks B*TCH! LOSE OUT ALEX
Originally posted by vaden:
Reid has always had horrific clock management, as do many NFL coaches. Continues to baffle me that such highly paid, ostensibly intelligent professionals routinely fail at basic math.

Over played. All coaches make some head-scratching decisions from time to time. Overall Andy Reid is a top 5 coach in this league. The decision he made Sunday was a good one. He could see his defense was struggling trying to contain a very hot Philip Rivers, and now they were doing it without their best two pass rushers. IN THAT SITUATION, it made sense to take the TO to allow the defense to get a breath and focus on what it would take to win the game. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, when Philip Rivers is playing as well as he has the past 6 games, he is going to beat even the best defenses. The man is good.
Originally posted by dj43:
Over played. All coaches make some head-scratching decisions from time to time. Overall Andy Reid is a top 5 coach in this league. The decision he made Sunday was a good one. He could see his defense was struggling trying to contain a very hot Philip Rivers, and now they were doing it without their best two pass rushers. IN THAT SITUATION, it made sense to take the TO to allow the defense to get a breath and focus on what it would take to win the game. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, when Philip Rivers is playing as well as he has the past 6 games, he is going to beat even the best defenses. The man is good.

When RIvers is on he is excellent...when he is not on he is Tony Romo!
  • vaden
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 3,189
Originally posted by dj43:
Over played. All coaches make some head-scratching decisions from time to time. Overall Andy Reid is a top 5 coach in this league. The decision he made Sunday was a good one. He could see his defense was struggling trying to contain a very hot Philip Rivers, and now they were doing it without their best two pass rushers. IN THAT SITUATION, it made sense to take the TO to allow the defense to get a breath and focus on what it would take to win the game. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, when Philip Rivers is playing as well as he has the past 6 games, he is going to beat even the best defenses. The man is good.

Reid took the timeout with the clock running and 17 seconds left on the play clock. Total idiocy and there's no excuse for it.
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by vaden:
Reid has always had horrific clock management, as do many NFL coaches. Continues to baffle me that such highly paid, ostensibly intelligent professionals routinely fail at basic math.

Over played. All coaches make some head-scratching decisions from time to time. Overall Andy Reid is a top 5 coach in this league. The decision he made Sunday was a good one. He could see his defense was struggling trying to contain a very hot Philip Rivers, and now they were doing it without their best two pass rushers. IN THAT SITUATION, it made sense to take the TO to allow the defense to get a breath and focus on what it would take to win the game. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, when Philip Rivers is playing as well as he has the past 6 games, he is going to beat even the best defenses. The man is good.

im not sure if we are talking about the same time out--the one i had issue with was when chiefs had ball, so reasting the defense shouldnt have been an issue--it was right after a nice gainer on screen to charles, and smith hit bowe for go ahed td right after the t.o.--the point was that if he hadnt called the time out, the chargers get the ball back with alot less time than they did, and it is harder for them to drive field for winning score
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