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How many games will the Chiefs win PYMWYMI

How many games will the Chiefs win PYMWYMI

Originally posted by 11OnDaField1NMyHeart:
Yes, he and the team are 9-0. No denying that.

But his lack of offensive skills are gonna hold them back. Same as they did with us. That's why he is, always has, and always will be an average ass QB.

You must be new here...lots of denying of almost everything Alex! LOL!
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by 11OnDaField1NMyHeart:
Yes, he and the team are 9-0. No denying that.

But his lack of offensive skills are gonna hold them back. Same as they did with us. That's why he is, always has, and always will be an average ass QB.

You must be new here...lots of denying of almost everything Alex! LOL!

lol
Originally posted by verb1der:
Not sure if been posted, but a good read breaking down the Alex Smith.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2013/film-room-limitations

Lol! Blasphemy! The writer has an agenda just like Cossell even though all evidence points to Smith requiring a s**tload of things to go right.
Originally posted by verb1der:
Not sure if been posted, but a good read breaking down the Alex Smith.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2013/film-room-limitations

Interesting but limited in regard to team insight. For instance, does it matter how much time a QB has before being sacked when talking about depth of passes? Stuff like that was left out. One incomplete deep pass? Not bad.
Chiefs opponents thus far: 27-49

Left to play: 34-22

Denver and Indianapolis are the only teams left with winning records...looks like 13-3 is a real possibility...egads...can I change my vote from 9 wins?
  • dj43
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 20,155
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Love how a team stat is correlated to one player but when you look into more detail, all he's doing is not turning it over. Other that, show me other things he is doing well when it comes to passing the ball.

We have been over this so much that all you need to do is read back the last dozen pages of this thread.

... and how about that Jets QB playing safe and not turning the ball over? What have you to say on that hilariously inaccurate statement of yours?

All I read in the last dozen pages is countless proof of how inept the KC passing offense is. Then there were comments sprinkled in about how good Alex is or the TOP is making the defense better with nothing to base it from.

As for the Jets QB, it just goes to show that a team that is committed to the run and has a strong defense can also have a winning team. Also, didn't Sanchez make it to the AFC Championship game twice? He's just a QB who knows how to win.

Get the theme? Winning is a TEAM game and if you take off the rose-colored glasses, you will realize that KC is winning due to their Defense that scores around 4 points per game and not their offense that only scores about 10 per game.

But that's okay. Alex is a top NFL QB because he wins...completely ignore the details.
This thread has always tended to be QB-centric, for obvious reasons, however in so far as it has now turned more the overall offense, it is clear the biggest issue that has held the offense back the past two weeks is the drops. No team can move the ball consistently with so many drops, and so many in key situations.

No QB, not Brady, not Rodgers, not Manning, is always going to put the ball in a perfect spot, and Smith has missed some that could have been better placed. So when he misses a couple, and then you add 3-5 drops/game, that offense will struggle. No way around it.

Further, with Knile Davis not turning out to be quite the power back they hoped for, yet, the offense has a lot of room to grow once he starts to run with authority.

I don't know, when so few attempts are made in the 10+ yard range, a drop or an over throw weigh in a lot. That's the other end of the play it safe spectrum. Yes, it keeps the scores close be it your team is dominating or not, but also keeps the opponent in the game where plays other teams can overcome appear vital in this type of offense.

The other unnoticable stat are NFL open deeper receivers that are not thrown to over a safer shorter more open route. This is the biggest difference in SF offense with Kap and the SF offense without Kap. With Kap, we maximize the potential of a play. Without him, we settle for higher percentage play or take the sack. With Kap, we have become one of the most efficient passing teams that can score in one play.

I don't have the time nor the inclination to go back a chart every pass, but from having watched every game, in recent games there are a lot of throws in the 10-15 yard range. In the last game, if McCluster catches that 30 yard throw he walks the rest of the way to the end zone. The throw could not have been better. Bowe dropped two balls at about the 12 yard mark. Your filter is on a little tight again.

No, the 49ers are not a team that can score on one passing play. That is the problem with the offense right now - they don't have a single reliable deep threat. That is why everyone is over the moon about Manningham and Crabtree coming back. Boldin is not a deep threat. Davis can be but is often held in to block. The result is the Kaep has often chose a shorter route because that is the route that has been called. The receivers that do run a bit deeper are usually there only to clear space for the shorter throw and to block after the catch.
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by hofer36:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Originally posted by Joecool:
bring in a guy who will play safe and not turn the ball over. Jets are doing it with a rookie as most run-heavy strong defense teams do. Sanchez started making brain fart plays and turning it over. Too easy to replace those kinds of mistakes.

Jets are doing what???? That Jets rookie you speak of is on pace for an astronomical amount of turnovers. He already has 13 INTs and 3 fumbles lost.

I think you strongly underestimate the mature and cool mindset of "live to fight another possession" when it comes to QBs. Almost all of them are chucking up risky, costly turnovers by trying too hard to make a play when they could just bide their time later and be smart with the football.

... and suggesting that the winningest QB in football the last 3 years is easy to replace? Oh, that's just those bitter, scorned feelings emanating from you as usual.

Love how a team stat is correlated to one player but when you look into more detail, all he's doing is not turning it over. Other that, show me other things he is doing well when it comes to passing the ball.

making clutch plays when needed joe---193 yds in 3rd qrtr vs eagles to mount 23 point comeback....td on 4th down to walker to beat lions (maybe that play should have been called in 4th down vs ravens).......40 yd + pass to crabtree in 4th qrtr to set up winning f/g vs seahawks in seattle...2 tds in last 2 minutes to beat saints....pass out of end zone vs eagles this year to keep going 8 minute drive in 4th quarter...you never give credit for these---

Credit is given. Again, look closer and you will see so few clutch plays in soooo many years. The clutch ratio is low in this one.
name a similar number of clutch plays other qbs-say kaepernick-- has made


you do realize that those sitautions calling for a clutch play dont come up every game
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Love how a team stat is correlated to one player but when you look into more detail, all he's doing is not turning it over. Other that, show me other things he is doing well when it comes to passing the ball.

We have been over this so much that all you need to do is read back the last dozen pages of this thread.

... and how about that Jets QB playing safe and not turning the ball over? What have you to say on that hilariously inaccurate statement of yours?

All I read in the last dozen pages is countless proof of how inept the KC passing offense is. Then there were comments sprinkled in about how good Alex is or the TOP is making the defense better with nothing to base it from.

As for the Jets QB, it just goes to show that a team that is committed to the run and has a strong defense can also have a winning team. Also, didn't Sanchez make it to the AFC Championship game twice? He's just a QB who knows how to win.

Get the theme? Winning is a TEAM game and if you take off the rose-colored glasses, you will realize that KC is winning due to their Defense that scores around 4 points per game and not their offense that only scores about 10 per game.

But that's okay. Alex is a top NFL QB because he wins...completely ignore the details.
This thread has always tended to be QB-centric, for obvious reasons, however in so far as it has now turned more the overall offense, it is clear the biggest issue that has held the offense back the past two weeks is the drops. No team can move the ball consistently with so many drops, and so many in key situations.

No QB, not Brady, not Rodgers, not Manning, is always going to put the ball in a perfect spot, and Smith has missed some that could have been better placed. So when he misses a couple, and then you add 3-5 drops/game, that offense will struggle. No way around it.

Further, with Knile Davis not turning out to be quite the power back they hoped for, yet, the offense has a lot of room to grow once he starts to run with authority.

I don't know, when so few attempts are made in the 10+ yard range, a drop or an over throw weigh in a lot. That's the other end of the play it safe spectrum. Yes, it keeps the scores close be it your team is dominating or not, but also keeps the opponent in the game where plays other teams can overcome appear vital in this type of offense.

The other unnoticable stat are NFL open deeper receivers that are not thrown to over a safer shorter more open route. This is the biggest difference in SF offense with Kap and the SF offense without Kap. With Kap, we maximize the potential of a play. Without him, we settle for higher percentage play or take the sack. With Kap, we have become one of the most efficient passing teams that can score in one play.

I don't have the time nor the inclination to go back a chart every pass, but from having watched every game, in recent games there are a lot of throws in the 10-15 yard range. In the last game, if McCluster catches that 30 yard throw he walks the rest of the way to the end zone. The throw could not have been better. Bowe dropped two balls at about the 12 yard mark. Your filter is on a little tight again.

No, the 49ers are not a team that can score on one passing play. That is the problem with the offense right now - they don't have a single reliable deep threat. That is why everyone is over the moon about Manningham and Crabtree coming back. Boldin is not a deep threat. Davis can be but is often held in to block. The result is the Kaep has often chose a shorter route because that is the route that has been called. The receivers that do run a bit deeper are usually there only to clear space for the shorter throw and to block after the catch.

The bold is where you are seeing what you want to see. Here's proof: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2013/film-room-limitations

The stats also show proof. There is 7 years of proof that show Alex just isn't a QB who will attempt even an average amount of deep balls. Also, like you said, the McCluster dropped ball was big. It was only big because of the lack of big plays attempted and short-yardage style Alex prefers. A deep completion or a dropped deep pass or a deep overthrow weighs heavy into the non-production or production for Alex Smith.

Bold italics: I'm not sure what you are seeing. Kap is ranked 11th in TD per completion. He is ranked 13th or so in TD per attempt. His yards per attempt, number of passes over 15 yards....everything points to big plays. In the least attempts in the league, SF has 2 targets on pace for 1000 yards. If that doesn't scream ability to make huge plays, I don't know what to tell you.

All of this evidence about Kap and you don't believe SF has made big plays but you believe a QB that averages only 6 yards per attempt with a very low TD/ATT ratio throws a lot of deep passes? Something is backward here or someone needs to take the glasses off. Alex, of all people should be in prime position to take advantage of defenses that have a primary gameplan to defend the screen pass, the run, and the pass under 10 yards. He didn't do it in SF and he won't do it in KC.
Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Originally posted by hofer36:
Originally posted by hofer36:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Originally posted by Joecool:
bring in a guy who will play safe and not turn the ball over. Jets are doing it with a rookie as most run-heavy strong defense teams do. Sanchez started making brain fart plays and turning it over. Too easy to replace those kinds of mistakes.

Jets are doing what???? That Jets rookie you speak of is on pace for an astronomical amount of turnovers. He already has 13 INTs and 3 fumbles lost.

I think you strongly underestimate the mature and cool mindset of "live to fight another possession" when it comes to QBs. Almost all of them are chucking up risky, costly turnovers by trying too hard to make a play when they could just bide their time later and be smart with the football.

... and suggesting that the winningest QB in football the last 3 years is easy to replace? Oh, that's just those bitter, scorned feelings emanating from you as usual.

Love how a team stat is correlated to one player but when you look into more detail, all he's doing is not turning it over. Other that, show me other things he is doing well when it comes to passing the ball.

making clutch plays when needed joe---193 yds in 3rd qrtr vs eagles to mount 23 point comeback....td on 4th down to walker to beat lions (maybe that play should have been called in 4th down vs ravens).......40 yd + pass to crabtree in 4th qrtr to set up winning f/g vs seahawks in seattle...2 tds in last 2 minutes to beat saints....pass out of end zone vs eagles this year to keep going 8 minute drive in 4th quarter...you never give credit for these---

those plays listed above help lead to (now) 29-5-1
Whats his records when the Defense can't hold a lead ?


like any qb--if the defense cant hold the lead the team loses
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by verb1der:
Not sure if been posted, but a good read breaking down the Alex Smith.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2013/film-room-limitations

Interesting but limited in regard to team insight. For instance, does it matter how much time a QB has before being sacked when talking about depth of passes? Stuff like that was left out. One incomplete deep pass? Not bad.

I can do this all day.

There are 9 QB's in the league with equal to or more sacks than Alex. All 9 have a higher yards per attempt and 4 of them have a better completion percentage. 5 of those teams are .500 or better winning percentage.

So many excuses for Alex but no one wants to admit that it is just the way he plays. Odds of him changing are very low. Get him a probowl OL and he will play the same...wait...he had that and he did. Give him a near 1000 yard receiver and Probowl TE, oh wait...
[ Edited by Joecool on Nov 7, 2013 at 12:44 AM ]
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Love how a team stat is correlated to one player but when you look into more detail, all he's doing is not turning it over. Other that, show me other things he is doing well when it comes to passing the ball.

We have been over this so much that all you need to do is read back the last dozen pages of this thread.

... and how about that Jets QB playing safe and not turning the ball over? What have you to say on that hilariously inaccurate statement of yours?

All I read in the last dozen pages is countless proof of how inept the KC passing offense is. Then there were comments sprinkled in about how good Alex is or the TOP is making the defense better with nothing to base it from.

As for the Jets QB, it just goes to show that a team that is committed to the run and has a strong defense can also have a winning team. Also, didn't Sanchez make it to the AFC Championship game twice? He's just a QB who knows how to win.

Get the theme? Winning is a TEAM game and if you take off the rose-colored glasses, you will realize that KC is winning due to their Defense that scores around 4 points per game and not their offense that only scores about 10 per game.

But that's okay. Alex is a top NFL QB because he wins...completely ignore the details.
This thread has always tended to be QB-centric, for obvious reasons, however in so far as it has now turned more the overall offense, it is clear the biggest issue that has held the offense back the past two weeks is the drops. No team can move the ball consistently with so many drops, and so many in key situations.

No QB, not Brady, not Rodgers, not Manning, is always going to put the ball in a perfect spot, and Smith has missed some that could have been better placed. So when he misses a couple, and then you add 3-5 drops/game, that offense will struggle. No way around it.

Further, with Knile Davis not turning out to be quite the power back they hoped for, yet, the offense has a lot of room to grow once he starts to run with authority.

I don't know, when so few attempts are made in the 10+ yard range, a drop or an over throw weigh in a lot. That's the other end of the play it safe spectrum. Yes, it keeps the scores close be it your team is dominating or not, but also keeps the opponent in the game where plays other teams can overcome appear vital in this type of offense.

The other unnoticable stat are NFL open deeper receivers that are not thrown to over a safer shorter more open route. This is the biggest difference in SF offense with Kap and the SF offense without Kap. With Kap, we maximize the potential of a play. Without him, we settle for higher percentage play or take the sack. With Kap, we have become one of the most efficient passing teams that can score in one play.

I don't have the time nor the inclination to go back a chart every pass, but from having watched every game, in recent games there are a lot of throws in the 10-15 yard range. In the last game, if McCluster catches that 30 yard throw he walks the rest of the way to the end zone. The throw could not have been better. Bowe dropped two balls at about the 12 yard mark. Your filter is on a little tight again.

No, the 49ers are not a team that can score on one passing play. That is the problem with the offense right now - they don't have a single reliable deep threat. That is why everyone is over the moon about Manningham and Crabtree coming back. Boldin is not a deep threat. Davis can be but is often held in to block. The result is the Kaep has often chose a shorter route because that is the route that has been called. The receivers that do run a bit deeper are usually there only to clear space for the shorter throw and to block after the catch.

The bold is where you are seeing what you want to see. Here's proof: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2013/film-room-limitations

The stats also show proof. There is 7 years of proof that show Alex just isn't a QB who will attempt even an average amount of deep balls. Also, like you said, the McCluster dropped ball was big. It was only big because of the lack of big plays attempted and short-yardage style Alex prefers. A deep completion or a dropped deep pass or a deep overthrow weighs heavy into the non-production or production for Alex Smith.

Bold italics: I'm not sure what you are seeing. Kap is ranked 11th in TD per completion. He is ranked 13th or so in TD per attempt. His yards per attempt, number of passes over 15 yards....everything points to big plays. In the least attempts in the league, SF has 2 targets on pace for 1000 yards. If that doesn't scream ability to make huge plays, I don't know what to tell you.

All of this evidence about Kap and you don't believe SF has made big plays but you believe a QB that averages only 6 yards per attempt with a very low TD/ATT ratio throws a lot of deep passes? Something is backward here or someone needs to take the glasses off. Alex, of all people should be in prime position to take advantage of defenses that have a primary gameplan to defend the screen pass, the run, and the pass under 10 yards. He didn't do it in SF and he won't do it in KC.

cite the stats then---cause I think smith threw deep pretty well before he injured his shoulder in his 3rd year...you may recall that norv turner said he was the best deep passer he had ever coached (I think norv was overstating the case but the fact that he said it certainly negates that smith was a poor deep passer)....examples you may recall,,,,the night game in seattle vs seahawks in terrible weather conditions, the one where smith bounced off a blitzer and hit gore for a td, then later scored on a naked boot leg, to lead a niner comeback...remember the pass to battle, 50+ yards flatfooted, for a long completion...a similar flat footed throw in the opening game of 2007 season, the Monday nighter vs cardinals...the game where niners won on last minute drive, ending with arnez battle scoring on a goaline reverse--remember the pass to Darrell Jackson on that drive, right before smith's 25 yard scramble on 4th down (geez another example of a clutch play there joe)...Jackson let it go through his hands

a couple games later rocky Bernard crushed smith's shoulder.. leading to 2 years of recovery... I think that might cause a qb to have to make adjustments, what do you think?
Originally posted by Joecool:
Get him a probowl OL and he will play the same...wait...he had that and he did. Give him a near 1000 yard receiver and Probowl TE, oh wait...

You are acting as if Alex wasn't one of the top 5 efficient QBs when he did have that pro bowl TE and OL.

In 2011, the pass offense was ranked 13th in efficiency, and we were a fumble away from a SB with a yr 1 offense.

IN 2012, the pass offense was ranked 5th in efficiency with that "pro bowl OL" and Alex was the leading QB in pass rating.

... but you don't care for THE WAY he plays... even though the coaches want(ed) this play from him... even though Andy Reid gave up TWO second rd picks to get a QB with this type of play.


Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Get him a probowl OL and he will play the same...wait...he had that and he did. Give him a near 1000 yard receiver and Probowl TE, oh wait...

You are acting as if Alex wasn't one of the top 5 efficient QBs when he did have that pro bowl TE and OL.

In 2011, the pass offense was ranked 13th in efficiency, and we were a fumble away from a SB with a yr 1 offense.

IN 2012, the pass offense was ranked 5th in efficiency with that "pro bowl OL" and Alex was the leading QB in pass rating.

... but you don't care for THE WAY he plays... even though the coaches want(ed) this play from him... even though Andy Reid gave up TWO second rd picks to get a QB with this type of play.



This...you can do it all day Joe? I thought it was your lifetime hobby! Bash Smith, take a shower, bash Smith brush teeth, bash Smith go to work...
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by verb1der:
Not sure if been posted, but a good read breaking down the Alex Smith.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2013/film-room-limitations

Interesting but limited in regard to team insight. For instance, does it matter how much time a QB has before being sacked when talking about depth of passes? Stuff like that was left out. One incomplete deep pass? Not bad.

I can do this all day.

There are 9 QB's in the league with equal to or more sacks than Alex. All 9 have a higher yards per attempt and 4 of them have a better completion percentage. 5 of those teams are .500 or better winning percentage.

So many excuses for Alex but no one wants to admit that it is just the way he plays. Odds of him changing are very low. Get him a probowl OL and he will play the same...wait...he had that and he did. Give him a near 1000 yard receiver and Probowl TE, oh wait...

I would post more in this thread but Joecool got it all covered.

Keep preaching man, one day our webzone folks will see the light!
I dont understand JoeCools obsession with putting Alex down any chance he gets.