How many games will the Chiefs win PYMWYMI

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:

Originally posted by sanjo49er:
Nobody expected the Chiefs to be 8-0. Nobody

Keyshawn Johnson picked them to be in the Super Bowl.

Originally posted by vaden:
The irony is there's about a 90% probability the Chiefs will get the #5 seed, so this debate almost doesn't matter. Yeah, technically they could flame out at 9-7 or go 14-2 and win the division, but far more likely is they'll finish in the 11-13 win range and be playing at Cincinnati in round 1.

5 seed? So who are the teams ahead of them?

Unless you think KC is going to win their division (which the wiseguys in Vegas still highly doubt), they're almost guaranteed to get the 5 seed at this point. Although their w/l record will still matter in terms of seeding the 4 round 1 losers, assuming they don't advance.

Originally posted by IWASATTHECATCH:

If you're not one of the 4 division winners, you'd be a 5.



8 out of 10 on the NFL rules quiz, my ass.

7/10 here, and even I knew that...

Got cha, banking of Denver beating them. I can see that I suppose.

Originally posted by vaden:

Unless you think KC is going to win their division (which the wiseguys in Vegas still highly doubt), they're almost guaranteed to get the 5 seed at this point. Although their w/l record will still matter in terms of seeding the 4 round 1 losers, assuming they don't advance.

Ya you are probably right. Good point.

1584 yards 9 td's 5 int's 57.1% 87.6 rating 240 rushing
1795 yards 9 td's 4 int's 59% 82 rating 218 rushing
1489 Yards 11 td's 4 int's, 61% 97 rating 323 rushing
1574 yards 10 td's 3 int's 64% 91 rating 183 rushing
1824 yards 9 td's 6 int's 55.7% 74.9 rating 13 yards

Name the QB's...

Originally posted by Amir:
i don't understand what i said was so wrong. Even though i hate alex and think he's average at best, i still wanted the chiefs to win 8 games. Susweel too. Now that they have reached that goal, I want them to lose every game for draft slotting.

The alex fans should want Alex to do well but Chiefs to lose. What's so wrong with that?

At least you are honest in your hatred of Smith...a feeling I really don't understand, but you are welcome to your opinion.

Edit: forgot to mention you are all wet when you say folks who hope the Chiefs continue to win are fake 9er fans. I don't consider you a very good barometer of my fandom.

Originally posted by vaden:

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:

Originally posted by sanjo49er:
Nobody expected the Chiefs to be 8-0. Nobody

Keyshawn Johnson picked them to be in the Super Bowl.

Originally posted by vaden:
The irony is there's about a 90% probability the Chiefs will get the #5 seed, so this debate almost doesn't matter. Yeah, technically they could flame out at 9-7 or go 14-2 and win the division, but far more likely is they'll finish in the 11-13 win range and be playing at Cincinnati in round 1.

5 seed? So who are the teams ahead of them?

Unless you think KC is going to win their division (which the wiseguys in Vegas still highly doubt), they're almost guaranteed to get the 5 seed at this point. Although their w/l record will still matter in terms of seeding the 4 round 1 losers, assuming they don't advance.

Vegas only cares about keeping the betting even. It really doesn't impact who they think will actually win...but I think you already know that.

I'm thinking the Chiefs win the division. Denver's defense is terrible. They are going to lose some more games down the road.

Originally posted by dj43:
Vegas only cares about keeping the betting even. It really doesn't impact who they think will actually win...but I think you already know that.

I'm thinking the Chiefs win the division. Denver's defense is terrible. They are going to lose some more games down the road.

Very few games are bet evenly by the public, and bookmakers won't always move the odds accordingly because that would leave them vulnerable to the big money pros. Vegas odds are primarily derived from sophisticated power rankings. Denver will probably be a td favorite even at KC, though I think that's a bit too high and give KC a 40% to win.

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:
You make some good points, until you confused someone rooting for a better pick and someone talking about fandom. I haven't called anyone less of a fan, that was other folks. Maybe you can go back and read that. Anyone coming here stating root for the chiefs and you aren't a real fan is inciting. Rooting for the best possible pick is different.

My hopes for Alex this year was to prove to the people who trolled the board for years that Alex wasn't good because he didnt throw for 400 yards and 4 TDs a game were wrong. There are many ways to play QB, but winning is all that matters. They never believed that. I just wanted Alex to prove he was capable of leading a team, which he obviously has. I am not signing up to root for the chiefs full time. Big difference. I wish the kid the best of luck, he was a true class act. But if I'm giving the choice between the 50th and the 60th pick, I'm picking the 50th. Not really hard to understand.

That's fine. I don't think anyone here watches all of Chiefs games and root for KC to win their games. But, since Alex was a class act and IMO got too much flak - I do feel for the guy and hope he does great in his career (except when he's playing against the Niners). Your position is respectable since it does benefit 9ers, though I don't think it makes a big difference if we have the 50th pick or 60th. I saw your example...and I can show you plenty of examples where late 2nd round picks have outplayed mid-2nd round picks in their rookie year.

But, when some dude who was completely off about Alex Smith starts calling others fake fans...then it's only fair to respond. I remember rooting for Montana when he went to KC and won 15 games. There is nothin' wrong with rooting for a guy you admire. Alex was no Montana - but every bit a class act Montana was - and that's admirable.

Originally posted by 4ML:

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:

You make some good points, until you confused someone rooting for a better pick and someone talking about fandom. I haven't called anyone less of a fan, that was other folks. Maybe you can go back and read that. Anyone coming here stating root for the chiefs and you aren't a real fan is inciting. Rooting for the best possible pick is different.

My hopes for Alex this year was to prove to the people who trolled the board for years that Alex wasn't good because he didnt throw for 400 yards and 4 TDs a game were wrong. There are many ways to play QB, but winning is all that matters. They never believed that. I just wanted Alex to prove he was capable of leading a team, which he obviously has. I am not signing up to root for the chiefs full time. Big difference. I wish the kid the best of luck, he was a true class act. But if I'm giving the choice between the 50th and the 60th pick, I'm picking the 50th. Not really hard to understand.

That's fine. I don't think anyone here watches all of Chiefs games and root for KC to win their games. But, since Alex was a class act and IMO got too much flak - I do feel for the guy and hope he does great in his career (except when he's playing against the Niners). Your position is respectable since it does benefit 9ers, though I don't think it makes a big difference if we have the 50th pick or 60th. I saw your example...and I can show you plenty of examples where late 2nd round picks have outplayed mid-2nd round picks in their rookie year.

But, when some dude who was completely off about Alex Smith starts calling others fake fans...then it's only fair to respond. I remember rooting for Montana when he went to KC and won 15 games. There is nothin' wrong with rooting for a guy you admire. Alex was no Montana - but every bit a class act Montana was - and that's admirable.

Agreed with everything you wrote except for the pick part. All good.

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:

Originally posted by Jakemall:

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:

Originally posted by Jakemall:
The difference is between a mid 2nd round pick and a late 2nd is inconsequential. That means, that it just doesn't matter THAT much. So, just because I chose to root for Alex to do well, does not take anything away from my being a 9ers fan. When the two teams play each other, I'll be rooting for the 9ers.

Don't sweat the small stuff. It just doesn't matter. And if it does to you..well...

I totally agree. A perfect example. Last year for the 14th pick in the second round, the bills took Alonso who has started every game, has 70 tackles, and is playing at ROY level. The ravens at 24 in the second took Arthur Brown who has 3 tackles. I'm sure not a single ravens fan wishes they had a shot at Alonso, clearly inconsequential.

Was it the placement of the pick..or was it the scouting and the gm...or was it maybe just maybe just a little luck. Cuz I am sure I can find just as many examples that work the other way around.

No you can't. It's the reason worst picks first. Statistically speaking, you are more likely to get a better player picking earlier. There is a reason its called an anomaly.

Actually you can...because teams tend to reach for who they like all the time. Very few teams truly adopt BPA policy. It is not an anomaly when a 60th pick out-performs 50th pick. It happens all the time.

Originally posted by 4ML:

Actually you can...because teams tend to reach for who they like all the time. Very few teams truly adopt BPA policy. It is not an anomaly when a 60th pick out-performs 50th pick. It happens all the time.

Lol. Statically speaking, the better pick is the better player. Don't try and fool anyone. At this point its not an issue, but lets not be silly

Originally posted by 4ML:

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:

Originally posted by Jakemall:

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:

Originally posted by Jakemall:
The difference is between a mid 2nd round pick and a late 2nd is inconsequential. That means, that it just doesn't matter THAT much. So, just because I chose to root for Alex to do well, does not take anything away from my being a 9ers fan. When the two teams play each other, I'll be rooting for the 9ers.

Don't sweat the small stuff. It just doesn't matter. And if it does to you..well...

I totally agree. A perfect example. Last year for the 14th pick in the second round, the bills took Alonso who has started every game, has 70 tackles, and is playing at ROY level. The ravens at 24 in the second took Arthur Brown who has 3 tackles. I'm sure not a single ravens fan wishes they had a shot at Alonso, clearly inconsequential.

Was it the placement of the pick..or was it the scouting and the gm...or was it maybe just maybe just a little luck. Cuz I am sure I can find just as many examples that work the other way around.

No you can't. It's the reason worst picks first. Statistically speaking, you are more likely to get a better player picking earlier. There is a reason its called an anomaly.

Actually you can...because teams tend to reach for who they like all the time. Very few teams truly adopt BPA policy. It is not an anomaly when a 60th pick out-performs 50th pick. It happens all the time.

How many QBs were taken before Kaepernick? It's really a crap shoot at best but I do agree statistically speaking it's pretty obvious the higher pick means a better player.

I'm hoping, for the second year in a row, that the niners package their picks and get one of the best WRs and best DBs in the draft. Those are the positions, along with NT that seem glaring needs. They tend to ignore NT, which is why I'm hoping for the other two positions.

Originally posted by JiksJuicy:
1584 yards 9 td's 5 int's 57.1% 87.6 rating 240 rushing
1795 yards 9 td's 4 int's 59% 82 rating 218 rushing
1489 Yards 11 td's 4 int's, 61% 97 rating 323 rushing
1574 yards 10 td's 3 int's 64% 91 rating 183 rushing
1824 yards 9 td's 6 int's 55.7% 74.9 rating 13 yards

Name the QB's...

Colin Kaepernick
Alex Smith
Russell Wilson
Andrew Luck
Tom Brady

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:

Originally posted by 4ML:
Actually you can...because teams tend to reach for who they like all the time. Very few teams truly adopt BPA policy. It is not an anomaly when a 60th pick out-performs 50th pick. It happens all the time.

Lol. Statically speaking, the better pick is the better player. Don't try and fool anyone. At this point its not an issue, but lets not be silly

Theoretically you're right. Historically, you're not.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfl--best-pick-of-the-nfl-draft--try-lucky-no--24-153919920.html


Admit it: Sometime in your football-loving life, you've secretly shrugged off your favorite NFL team's late-season loss because "at least we'll get a better draft pick." Hey, we get it: There isn't much solace in losing – especially in December – and maybe that loss will translate to a superstar rookie the next year.

Or… maybe not.

The Wall Street Journal did the math, and the "better" picks might be anything but.

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
How many QBs were taken before Kaepernick? It's really a crap shoot at best but I do agree statistically speaking it's pretty obvious the higher pick means a better player.

I'm hoping, for the second year in a row, that the niners package their picks and get one of the best WRs and best DBs in the draft. Those are the positions, along with NT that seem glaring needs. They tend to ignore NT, which is why I'm hoping for the other two positions.

Again...when you're comparing a mid-2nd rounder with late 2nd rounder...you probably have about the same chance of landing a same talent if you look at actual data.

Majority of very best players in the history of the NFL at every position are not top picks. Theoretically, they should be...right?