How many games will the Chiefs win PYMWYMI

Originally posted by Joecool:
Man this thread slowed down. Where all the punks who we're saying Alex sucks?

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by pd24:

In our ceaseless chase to bring you the best NFL game preview content anywhere, Audibles is happy to talk with Greg Cosell of NFL Films, and the executive producer of ESPN's NFL Matchup, about football as much as possible. There are few people more qualified to do so — Greg has been with NFL Films since 1979, and he and Steve Sabol invented advanced football analysis on television with the "Matchup" concept, which premiered in 1984. The most important part of his job is the insight he grabs from watching as much or more coach's tape than anyone not actually working for an NFL team. It's this insight we draw heavily upon for our weekly Friday podcasts, which preview the upcoming Sunday and Monday games and review the Thursday night contests.

We'll start with the Kansas City Chiefs' 26-16 Thursday night win over the Philadelphia Eagles, and proceed from there.

You can download the podcast here, or scroll down to play it. Also, we encourage you to subscribe to the Audibles Audio iTunes feed.

A few words of wisdom from Mr. Cosell:



On Alex Smith's limitations and his function in Kansas City's offense: "I think you only go so far with him. Clearly, he's not willing to pull the trigger [on throws] unless it's wide open. We don't know what he's told or how they want to play, but the defense is the strength of their team. So, they're perhaps going to play offense to that strength. But in today's NFL, the way points are scored, and with the emphasis on passing, I think it's hard to be a real contender that way. Can you win nine or 10 games? You can, and it's been done, but it's hard to play that way as your modus operandi week after week."

http://nfl.si.com/2013/09/20/podcast-greg-cosell-nfl-week-3-preview/

Same old crap from Cosell. He evidently missed the passes threaded between defenders last week...and he always seems to miss those doesn't he? So sad that he has to recycle this nonsense. Safe? Yes, Smith plays it safe. But when he needs a third and long? Either runs for a first down or completes an excellent pass for a first down. Why folks still listen to Cosell is...easy to understand...it agrees with their misconceptions.

You mean that one incompletion? He probably also sees the MANY open looks Smith does not throw. There's a reason why Smith is usually one of the most sacked QB's in the league. Most of what he says is correct, it is not easy to win like that but he is playing to the strength of his defense. If they want to truly contend, Alex will need to get that offense at a higher octane level. He has shown it once or twice that he could do this, but in an 8 year career, one or two times is not enough to justify he is that QB.

Why hold onto so many few plays you have seen him make and not question the amount of plays missed due to all the sacks? I understand, it is fair to refute that Alex not making some plays also helps him help the team to not lose games. That is fine but that argument is only used by a couple. Quite a few keep pointing at his few and far between "nice" plays.

He is what he is and that is a coach/qb on the field that will not put the team in difficult situations. However, KC also has a top notch defense which always helps smart QB's get the wins. What I do know is that he rarely wins a game when the opponent scores over 24 or 26, was it. That should tell you something.

"Alex smith is 2-27 against teams that score more than 24 points"

I would like to see two things.

1. On that statistic, how many of those losses were after 2010.

2. I'd like to see the stats for all the other quarterbacks in the NFL. It's meaningless to me in a vacuum.

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Same old crap from Cosell. He evidently missed the passes threaded between defenders last week...and he always seems to miss those doesn't he? So sad that he has to recycle this nonsense. Safe? Yes, Smith plays it safe. But when he needs a third and long? Either runs for a first down or completes an excellent pass for a first down. Why folks still listen to Cosell is...easy to understand...it agrees with their misconceptions.

Cosell does make some valid criticisms. I didn't find anything inaccurate in his analysis, other than he can't win more than 9 or 10 games. Alex proved he can win more than that.

Cosell and Jaworski in particular put a huge emphasis on arm strength and throwing downfield. They don't appreciate Alex's skill set even if it produces wins. I think Alex is a good QB, but at the same time I'm not going to pretend he doesn't have limitations. Alex does a great job playing to his strengths. I think he has great anticipation for the short routes, makes quick decisions, and has confidence throwing into tight windows in that area.

I have to question your assessment of Alex on 3rd and longs: "But when he needs a third and long? Either runs for a first down or completes an excellent pass for a first down." I don't think that's true. He rarely challenges the defense in those situations, instead choosing to check down and accept punting on 4th down. That was a constant criticism during his entire career in SF.

What he does do extremely well is throw on 1st and 10, creating great down and distance situations to run, use play-action, or continue to dink and dunk methodically up field.

Originally posted by Jakemall:
"Alex smith is 2-27 against teams that score more than 24 points"

I would like to see two things.

1. On that statistic, how many of those losses were after 2010.

2. I'd like to see the stats for all the other quarterbacks in the NFL. It's meaningless to me in a vacuum.

I would guess a lot of those were before 2010 when he started getting better. I would also bet most teams QB's aren't that good when the other team scores 24 or more. Dumb statistic. Yeah if the other team scores a lot you tend to lose a lot. So what......

Originally posted by SofaKing:

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Same old crap from Cosell. He evidently missed the passes threaded between defenders last week...and he always seems to miss those doesn't he? So sad that he has to recycle this nonsense. Safe? Yes, Smith plays it safe. But when he needs a third and long? Either runs for a first down or completes an excellent pass for a first down. Why folks still listen to Cosell is...easy to understand...it agrees with their misconceptions.

Cosell does make some valid criticisms. I didn't find anything inaccurate in his analysis, other than he can't win more than 9 or 10 games. Alex proved he can win more than that.

Cosell and Jaworski in particular put a huge emphasis on arm strength and throwing downfield. They don't appreciate Alex's skill set even if it produces wins. I think Alex is a good QB, but at the same time I'm not going to pretend he doesn't have limitations. Alex does a great job playing to his strengths. I think he has great anticipation for the short routes, makes quick decisions, and has confidence throwing into tight windows in that area.

I have to question your assessment of Alex on 3rd and longs: "But when he needs a third and long? Either runs for a first down or completes an excellent pass for a first down." I don't think that's true. He rarely challenges the defense in those situations, instead choosing to check down and accept punting on 4th down. That was a constant criticism during his entire career in SF.

What he does do extremely well is throw on 1st and 10, creating great down and distance situations to run, use play-action, or continue to dink and dunk methodically up field.

Cosell says early in the piece that Smith will not throw into coverage and yet there were two very good completions last game with defenders bracketing the receiver. According to Cosell Smith won't make those throws...so who was wearing #11 for KC last week? That was an error in his article and he perpetuates this myth with every comment on Smith.

Smith doesn't take unnecessary risks and so he is less likely to throw into coverage but that's a style, not an inability. My assessment of Smith's 3rd and longs--he did both things in the last game. I'm not saying he always does this...no QB does. So you can question my memory if you like but go watch his games from this year and you will see him do this. Very important plays and he kept the chains moving.

What's with the tendency of posters to take a straight comment on a few plays and call it bull because it isn't the case 100% of the time? Good grief, are we so addled that we can regard comments in any other way than general truisms?

As you can tell, I have little respect for Cosell's opinion when it comes to Smith...your point that he likes a downfield QB says it all...he's prejudiced.

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by SofaKing:

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Same old crap from Cosell. He evidently missed the passes threaded between defenders last week...and he always seems to miss those doesn't he? So sad that he has to recycle this nonsense. Safe? Yes, Smith plays it safe. But when he needs a third and long? Either runs for a first down or completes an excellent pass for a first down. Why folks still listen to Cosell is...easy to understand...it agrees with their misconceptions.

Cosell does make some valid criticisms. I didn't find anything inaccurate in his analysis, other than he can't win more than 9 or 10 games. Alex proved he can win more than that.

Cosell and Jaworski in particular put a huge emphasis on arm strength and throwing downfield. They don't appreciate Alex's skill set even if it produces wins. I think Alex is a good QB, but at the same time I'm not going to pretend he doesn't have limitations. Alex does a great job playing to his strengths. I think he has great anticipation for the short routes, makes quick decisions, and has confidence throwing into tight windows in that area.

I have to question your assessment of Alex on 3rd and longs: "But when he needs a third and long? Either runs for a first down or completes an excellent pass for a first down." I don't think that's true. He rarely challenges the defense in those situations, instead choosing to check down and accept punting on 4th down. That was a constant criticism during his entire career in SF.

What he does do extremely well is throw on 1st and 10, creating great down and distance situations to run, use play-action, or continue to dink and dunk methodically up field.

Cosell says early in the piece that Smith will not throw into coverage and yet there were two very good completions last game with defenders bracketing the receiver. According to Cosell Smith won't make those throws...so who was wearing #11 for KC last week? That was an error in his article and he perpetuates this myth with every comment on Smith.

Smith doesn't take unnecessary risks and so he is less likely to throw into coverage but that's a style, not an inability. My assessment of Smith's 3rd and longs--he did both things in the last game. I'm not saying he always does this...no QB does. So you can question my memory if you like but go watch his games from this year and you will see him do this. Very important plays and he kept the chains moving.

What's with the tendency of posters to take a straight comment on a few plays and call it bull because it isn't the case 100% of the time? Good grief, are we so addled that we can regard comments in any other way than general truisms?

As you can tell, I have little respect for Cosell's opinion when it comes to Smith...your point that he likes a downfield QB says it all...he's prejudiced.

I'm just going to touch on the bold.

I agree his style makes him less likely to throw into coverage, but I also believe he developed that style out of necessity. He knows what his strengths and weakness are. Throwing into coverage 11-20 yard down field is not a strength of his, so he is not going to force the issue. Smart on his part.

I take issue with the 2nd bolded part because I never implied Alex has to convert 3rd and long 100% of the time. I don't like words being put in my mouth. My point was he is risk averse. That is his general tendency, and more often than not he will take the short check down that produces 4th down. That is the right thing to do sometimes, but he also misses out on opportunities down the field because he is so quick to choose the safer option. I've seen him play enough to know that is his style.

Originally posted by SofaKing:
I'm just going to touch on the bold.

I agree his style makes him less likely to throw into coverage, but I also believe he developed that style out of necessity. He knows what his strengths and weakness are. Throwing into coverage 11-20 yard down field is not a strength of his, so he is not going to force the issue. Smart on his part.

I take issue with the 2nd bolded part because I never implied Alex has to convert 3rd and long 100% of the time. I don't like words being put in my mouth. My point was he is risk averse. That is his general tendency, and more often than not he will take the short check down that produces 4th down. That is the right thing to do sometimes, but he also misses out on opportunities down the field because he is so quick to choose the safer option. I've seen him play enough to know that is his style.

We disagree about this being due to a lack of ability...seems if he can do it when necessary he can do it.

As for the 100% versus indicating a series of good plays, I'll accept that you were not intending to generalize...but then you generalize--the bold. Smith has learned that field position is a very good predictor of victory. Yes, he will take a 4th and field position over a risk of turnover when the game is still in the balance. But we have seen in the past that he can and has led comebacks by making critically important passes that are risky. Just depends on the game situation.

[edit] We are not far off in our assessments (second part of the bold) but I see a bigger upside to Smith's game and really like his style of play--smart ball.

Is he P Manning? Of course not. Can Kaepernick complete more tight passes due to his arm strength? Of course (except for the last two weeks).

Those who have written Smith off as a guy who can't win big games, Cosell, are just myopic and ignoring reality. The Saints playoff game was the biggest game up to that point in his professional career and he played well and was a gamer. But lets ignore that so we can say he won't ever win a big game.

Originally posted by Joecool:
You mean that one incompletion? He probably also sees the MANY open looks Smith does not throw. There's a reason why Smith is usually one of the most sacked QB's in the league. Most of what he says is correct, it is not easy to win like that but he is playing to the strength of his defense. If they want to truly contend, Alex will need to get that offense at a higher octane level. He has shown it once or twice that he could do this, but in an 8 year career, one or two times is not enough to justify he is that QB.

Why hold onto so many few plays you have seen him make and not question the amount of plays missed due to all the sacks? I understand, it is fair to refute that Alex not making some plays also helps him help the team to not lose games. That is fine but that argument is only used by a couple. Quite a few keep pointing at his few and far between "nice" plays.

He is what he is and that is a coach/qb on the field that will not put the team in difficult situations. However, KC also has a top notch defense which always helps smart QB's get the wins. What I do know is that he rarely wins a game when the opponent scores over 24 or 26, was it. That should tell you something.

You have always seen Smith's receivers as wide open...just odd. Not sure how you interpret open but it is very different than my interpretation so perhaps we should leave it there...agree to disagree.

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
We disagree about this being due to a lack of ability...seems if he can do it when necessary he can do it.

As for the 100% versus indicating a series of good plays, I'll accept that you were not intending to generalize...but then you generalize--the bold. Smith has learned that field position is a very good predictor of victory. Yes, he will take a 4th and field position over a risk of turnover when the game is still in the balance. But we have seen in the past that he can and has led comebacks by making critically important passes that are risky. Just depends on the game situation.

[edit] We are not far off in our assessments (second part of the bold) but I see a bigger upside to Smith's game and really like his style of play--smart ball.

Is he P Manning? Of course not. Can Kaepernick complete more tight passes due to his arm strength? Of course (except for the last two weeks).

Those who have written Smith off as a guy who can't win big games, Cosell, are just myopic and ignoring reality. The Saints playoff game was the biggest game up to that point in his professional career and he played well and was a gamer. But lets ignore that so we can say he won't ever win a big game.

Right on. I agree we're pretty similar in our assessments, just disagree on a few points. Cosell is wrong in saying you can never win with Alex. That is an example of somebody over generalizing. 100% truisms based on opinion should be disregarded.

Originally posted by SofaKing:
Right on. I agree we're pretty similar in our assessments, just disagree on a few points. Cosell is wrong in saying you can never win with Alex. That is an example of somebody over generalizing. 100% truisms based on opinion should be disregarded.

Originally posted by Joecool:
You mean that one incompletion? He probably also sees the MANY open looks Smith does not throw. There's a reason why Smith is usually one of the most sacked QB's in the league. Most of what he says is correct, it is not easy to win like that but he is playing to the strength of his defense. If they want to truly contend, Alex will need to get that offense at a higher octane level. He has shown it once or twice that he could do this, but in an 8 year career, one or two times is not enough to justify he is that QB.

Why hold onto so many few plays you have seen him make and not question the amount of plays missed due to all the sacks? I understand, it is fair to refute that Alex not making some plays also helps him help the team to not lose games. That is fine but that argument is only used by a couple. Quite a few keep pointing at his few and far between "nice" plays.

He is what he is and that is a coach/qb on the field that will not put the team in difficult situations. However, KC also has a top notch defense which always helps smart QB's get the wins. What I do know is that he rarely wins a game when the opponent scores over 24 or 26, was it. That should tell you something.

With more than 32 QBs playing every week, I doubt that Cosell had the time to watch every pass that a QB threw. He probably did what most of us would do: watching some highlights, then scanning through the rest. Remember: he makes his money by voicing opinion, not by poring over every inch of game film. The fact that his opinion hardly deviates from common opinion (not just on Smith, just check his opinion on other QB plays) indicates he just did what's necessary and no more.

Cosell is infatuated with arm strength and deep passes, which totally goes against Bill Walsh's philosophy and the Niner QB Legacy. So of course he wouldn't like Alex. He sounds super objective and intelligent but if you actually examine his own work you'll find lots of flaws, as I and many others here have with his often ridiculous criticisms of Alex.

Originally posted by fastforward:
With more than 32 QBs playing every week, I doubt that Cosell had the time to watch every pass that a QB threw. He probably did what most of us would do: watching some highlights, then scanning through the rest. Remember: he makes his money by voicing opinion, not by poring over every inch of game film. The fact that his opinion hardly deviates from common opinion (not just on Smith, just check his opinion on other QB plays) indicates he just did what's necessary and no more.

Probably true...let's see, I have an article on Smith from four years ago...let's just brush off the dust, change a few words...there we go!

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by SofaKing:
I'm just going to touch on the bold.

I agree his style makes him less likely to throw into coverage, but I also believe he developed that style out of necessity. He knows what his strengths and weakness are. Throwing into coverage 11-20 yard down field is not a strength of his, so he is not going to force the issue. Smart on his part.

I take issue with the 2nd bolded part because I never implied Alex has to convert 3rd and long 100% of the time. I don't like words being put in my mouth. My point was he is risk averse. That is his general tendency, and more often than not he will take the short check down that produces 4th down. That is the right thing to do sometimes, but he also misses out on opportunities down the field because he is so quick to choose the safer option. I've seen him play enough to know that is his style.

We disagree about this being due to a lack of ability...seems if he can do it when necessary he can do it.

As for the 100% versus indicating a series of good plays, I'll accept that you were not intending to generalize...but then you generalize--the bold. Smith has learned that field position is a very good predictor of victory. Yes, he will take a 4th and field position over a risk of turnover when the game is still in the balance. But we have seen in the past that he can and has led comebacks by making critically important passes that are risky. Just depends on the game situation.

[edit] We are not far off in our assessments (second part of the bold) but I see a bigger upside to Smith's game and really like his style of play--smart ball.

Is he P Manning? Of course not. Can Kaepernick complete more tight passes due to his arm strength? Of course (except for the last two weeks).

Those who have written Smith off as a guy who can't win big games, Cosell, are just myopic and ignoring reality. The Saints playoff game was the biggest game up to that point in his professional career and he played well and was a gamer. But lets ignore that so we can say he won't ever win a big game.

i know the physical ability to do it is there, as I have seen it (think about smith before harbaugh arrived...when he came in for shaun hill vs texans, he threw for 3 tds annd over 200 yards in the 2nd half....then later they played the packers and in the 2nd half he threw for over 200 yards and 3 tds....he threw for a ton in the eagle game after the blowup with singletary on the sideline, and after harbaugh he threw for 193 yds in the 3rd quarter vs eagles, and of course was whipping it about vs the saints in the playoff game...

.it is mental, in my view, a self imposed limitation brought about by, i suspect, a couple of things, one being the beat down he had for his first 6 years with the niners and his own perosnality