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Alex Smith: The Aftermath (Post SB)

Originally posted by SFL49ER:
Good points and

Alex Smith >>> game manager. I hate that reference to him, just cant put him up there with BIG Ben, Flacco, or Ryan

He performs one more year like he has last year and this...yes....yes you can.
Originally posted by InHarbsWeTrust:
All these "accomplishments" and yet he isn't regarded as anywhere near a top QB. Smith's numbers are extremely misleading.

They're not misleading. You just have to think about what you're looking at instead of blindly throwing stats around.

Alex has high QB efficiency ratings, high completion percentage, and a low turnover ratio.. likewise, he also doesn't have the same amount of touchdowns as a lot of top-level guys, and he takes a lot of sacks. It means Alex is a methodical/conservative passer who is efficient, but probably not explosive. Alex is a coach's dream because he plays within the framework of the system and is an outstanding teammate.

(These past two years though have been interesting for Alex. For one, as another person mentioned, he tied the record for most quarterback comebacks in the regular season, and this year, he had a pretty high yards/attempt stat. When you consider yards/attempt and his efficiency rating, that says he was starting to develop a balance between high-percentage short passes, and low-percentage intermediate/deep passes. It makes me really wonder how Alex would've turned out if he was developed properly for several years in the same system. He'd probably be in the top 5 for completion percentage every season, and possibly broken the record.)

I think a lot of run-first teams with tough defenses (becoming a rarity in the league) would do extremely well with Alex. Alex could win with, obviously our team... the Ravens... the Patriots... the Broncos... the Vikings... the Seahawks... and a lot of other similarly built teams.
He's not the guy for a team that airs it out, like the Saints or the Colts, but with a good surrounding cast, he can definitely move the offense pretty consistently.

But going back to the original train of thought, about Alex's future, it'll be a good fit for him if he goes to Cleveland with Norv. They've got a young team, with a developing running game. I think he'd do well there.
Originally posted by Wubbie:
They're not misleading. You just have to think about what you're looking at instead of blindly throwing stats around.

Alex has high QB efficiency ratings, high completion percentage, and a low turnover ratio.. likewise, he also doesn't have the same amount of touchdowns as a lot of top-level guys, and he takes a lot of sacks. It means Alex is a methodical/conservative passer who is efficient, but probably not explosive. Alex is a coach's dream because he plays within the framework of the system and is an outstanding teammate.

(These past two years though have been interesting for Alex. For one, as another person mentioned, he tied the record for most quarterback comebacks in the regular season, and this year, he had a pretty high yards/attempt stat. When you consider yards/attempt and his efficiency rating, that says he was starting to develop a balance between high-percentage short passes, and low-percentage intermediate/deep passes. It makes me really wonder how Alex would've turned out if he was developed properly for several years in the same system. He'd probably be in the top 5 for completion percentage every season, and possibly broken the record.)

I think a lot of run-first teams with tough defenses (becoming a rarity in the league) would do extremely well with Alex. Alex could win with, obviously our team... the Ravens... the Patriots... the Broncos... the Vikings... the Seahawks... and a lot of other similarly built teams.
He's not the guy for a team that airs it out, like the Saints or the Colts, but with a good surrounding cast, he can definitely move the offense pretty consistently.

But going back to the original train of thought, about Alex's future, it'll be a good fit for him if he goes to Cleveland with Norv. They've got a young team, with a developing running game. I think he'd do well there.

KC might be a good place too....Or even the Eagles.

I'd also add that being that methodical and efficient isn't easy...it requires a significant amount of skill. If every qb out there could do it...they would.
[ Edited by Jakemall on Jan 29, 2013 at 9:14 PM ]
Originally posted by ayetee:
Since the Niners cannot get much out of it, I would release him. Building a positive corporate image IS good business. It will generate good publicity far beyond the value of another third round draft choice or something like that.

I agree with the idea of a good image. Free agents will want to come to a place where they feel they'll be treated well.

But to disregard the value of a third-round pick is silly. Some of our third-rounders since 2005 years have included Chris Culliver, Navorro Bowman, Ray McDonald, and Frank Gore. It's a good position to pick up project players with great ability (Culliver, Bowman), or guys who had injury concerns (Gore).
Originally posted by Jakemall:
KC might be a good place too....Or even the Eagles.

I'd also add that being that methodical and efficient isn't easy...it requires a significant amount of skill. If every qb out there could do it...they would.

He would get eaten alive in Philly.
Originally posted by ayetee:
Originally posted by ChazBoner:
it's a business, nothing personal.

Since the Niners cannot get much out of it, I would release him. Building a positive corporate image IS good business. It will generate good publicity far beyond the value of another third round draft choice or something like that.

if there are offers for him on the table, any there will be, we will get some value back for him, nothing personal.
You can't properly evaluate a player with just passer rating and completion %, there are a lot of other stats that put those two into context. I am not sure where I would rank Smith overall but I do think he is definitely good enough to go to a team and be named the starter immediately.
They won't get lucky like the Bengals and find someone as dumb as the Raiders but they might get some value for him. The 48 hour window is going to make it interesting, if they can;t trade him in those two days I bet they release him.

I hope he ends up in a good situation.
Originally posted by Baldie:
Why rid of him at all.....if we kept him we would have the best back-up QB in the league. Between his salary and Kaeps, its like having one starting QB on the roster. Alex may be disgruntled if the niners go that route, but as a good football business decision, it makes more sense. I mean if we were to let Alex go, who is the insurance? Tolzien? With Kaep being a mobile QB, you just never know. If Alex leaves we would have to bring in an experienced back-up and there is just no one outthere.

The money saved from not having him on
our roster is going to pay for, at the very least, dashon goldson. Besides, there is no way he takes a #2 role here when he can be a starter somewhere else.
Originally posted by SFL49ER:
You make great points and I know you are one of the best with the talent evaluations here, but I am still disagreeing with a few thoughts:

I think GMs who need a qb are going to go after the aggressive types, the strong arms, the players who take risks, which is the best types to lead teams to wins, not conservatism for a couple years to "hold down the fort". Teams have to win now and have huge pressure from owners now a days.

Alex has an evaluation of his whole body of work, not just his 12 last games.

Success rate hasnt been good at all over the years, but that is rapidly changing, you know that. Youngs kids are coming in very prepared and smart and athletic, so that view is changing from what coaches are soon expecting from their players.

And draft picks I believe are becoming more valuable in todays game for the above mentioned. Teams want picks and more picks more than ever. And I think most of these teams who want a qb are banking more on finding the next Kaepernick in the draft than giving up a second round pick to nab Alex for three stop-gap seasons.

This is a terrible year for QB's, its really a crap shoot, compared to last year and even 2011, this draft is largely devoid of talent. A lot of the teams that will be looking at QB, such as KC, Jacksonville and Cleveland will likely be looking in the 2nd round range or lower. Alex Smith is a smart veteran who will play in the system, additionally......what's to say he doesn't develop further and play even better? Its certainly not unheard of, Rich Gannon was garbage for most of his career and really took off in his early 30s.

When it comes down to it, few GM's are going to want to roll their dice with a 2nd or 3rd round pick, they'll add a young QB, definitely, but they'll want a veteran starter as well, and taking a random guy off the heap, such as Jacksonville did with Chad Henne, hasn't been proven to be very successful.


Simply put, if a team needs a starter for the NOW, Alex Smith is at the top of the list, Vick might get more hype, but Vick is also unpredictable, less accurate and lacks consistency, as well as being injury prone. Alex will draw interest for many reasons, but the biggest being......there's NOBODY else out there. You either take a shot with Alex, or you go out, sign a generic free agent or take a young rookie and throw him into the fire and then hope your fan base is awfully understanding.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Jan 29, 2013 at 9:28 PM ]
I came around on Kaep after seeing he has an excellent ability to have a short memory and improve on mistakes. Never questioned his abilities...just whether or not he was ready and/or if this was the right time to throw a 2nd year player into the frey. Harbs was right.

However...

What I am sick of is the continual bashing of a guy who doesnt even start anymore. It shows that the "anyone but Alex" mantra really did hold true. The guy played lights out football for 2 seasons and was getting better...but still...because he wasnt slinging it all over the field past 25 yards it was a problem. To read ppl say he is misleading, they know he cant win, blah blah blah...it just reveals how bitter people can be...it reveals how little football knowledge a lot of people have...and it shows that fans have a very long memory when it serves their purpose. Anyone care to recite what a pushover Ray McDonald was in his first couple seasons?? How about Tarell Brown?? Goldson maybe?? All of those guys have improved so dramatically that you forget how inept they had been at times before hand. Now they are all pros/pro bowlers and play intergal roles in the team concept.

He deserves to go where he wants to...his play has warranted that...he is a very cerebral player who will help a team in desperate need of leadership and stability. Especially if he goes to a team that has WCO principles.

The thing that makes this SB run sweeter is knowing where this team was just 8 years ago. An expansion team, if you will (to borrow a quote from Steve Young). Alex never asked to be picked #1...and no one held a gun to these teams heads and said pay him $24 million...but somehow fans seem to find that as a reason to hate the guy. Its more of an indictment on the fanbase than anything else.

Its about time the fanbase lets the dark years go...it wasnt the fault of any one player...and really it could be heavily argued that it was 99.9% front office and coaching. We are back to where we want to be as fans...just embrace that and let the rest go...the guy has taken enough from most of you.
Originally posted by reasonable1:
I came around on Kaep after seeing he has an excellent ability to have a short memory and improve on mistakes. Never questioned his abilities...just whether or not he was ready and/or if this was the right time to throw a 2nd year player into the frey. Harbs was right.

However...

What I am sick of is the continual bashing of a guy who doesnt even start anymore. It shows that the "anyone but Alex" mantra really did hold true. The guy played lights out football for 2 seasons and was getting better...but still...because he wasnt slinging it all over the field past 25 yards it was a problem. To read ppl say he is misleading, they know he cant win, blah blah blah...it just reveals how bitter people can be...it reveals how little football knowledge a lot of people have...and it shows that fans have a very long memory when it serves their purpose. Anyone care to recite what a pushover Ray McDonald was in his first couple seasons?? How about Tarell Brown?? Goldson maybe?? All of those guys have improved so dramatically that you forget how inept they had been at times before hand. Now they are all pros/pro bowlers and play intergal roles in the team concept.

He deserves to go where he wants to...his play has warranted that...he is a very cerebral player who will help a team in desperate need of leadership and stability. Especially if he goes to a team that has WCO principles.

The thing that makes this SB run sweeter is knowing where this team was just 8 years ago. An expansion team, if you will (to borrow a quote from Steve Young). Alex never asked to be picked #1...and no one held a gun to these teams heads and said pay him $24 million...but somehow fans seem to find that as a reason to hate the guy. Its more of an indictment on the fanbase than anything else.

Its about time the fanbase lets the dark years go...it wasnt the fault of any one player...and really it could be heavily argued that it was 99.9% front office and coaching. We are back to where we want to be as fans...just embrace that and let the rest go...the guy has taken enough from most of you.

KC is the best place for him IMO. They could be competing for the playoffs next year. Everything is setup there for him to have success.
Insanely in depth and detailed report on Smith's desire to go to the Browns.

http://www.profootballcentral.com/2013/01/29/alex-smith-very-interested-in-browns/
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by reasonable1:
I came around on Kaep after seeing he has an excellent ability to have a short memory and improve on mistakes. Never questioned his abilities...just whether or not he was ready and/or if this was the right time to throw a 2nd year player into the frey. Harbs was right.

However...

What I am sick of is the continual bashing of a guy who doesnt even start anymore. It shows that the "anyone but Alex" mantra really did hold true. The guy played lights out football for 2 seasons and was getting better...but still...because he wasnt slinging it all over the field past 25 yards it was a problem. To read ppl say he is misleading, they know he cant win, blah blah blah...it just reveals how bitter people can be...it reveals how little football knowledge a lot of people have...and it shows that fans have a very long memory when it serves their purpose. Anyone care to recite what a pushover Ray McDonald was in his first couple seasons?? How about Tarell Brown?? Goldson maybe?? All of those guys have improved so dramatically that you forget how inept they had been at times before hand. Now they are all pros/pro bowlers and play intergal roles in the team concept.

He deserves to go where he wants to...his play has warranted that...he is a very cerebral player who will help a team in desperate need of leadership and stability. Especially if he goes to a team that has WCO principles.

The thing that makes this SB run sweeter is knowing where this team was just 8 years ago. An expansion team, if you will (to borrow a quote from Steve Young). Alex never asked to be picked #1...and no one held a gun to these teams heads and said pay him $24 million...but somehow fans seem to find that as a reason to hate the guy. Its more of an indictment on the fanbase than anything else.

Its about time the fanbase lets the dark years go...it wasnt the fault of any one player...and really it could be heavily argued that it was 99.9% front office and coaching. We are back to where we want to be as fans...just embrace that and let the rest go...the guy has taken enough from most of you.

KC is the best place for him IMO. They could be competing for the playoffs next year. Everything is setup there for him to have success.

See I thought that at first myself, but the more I look at it the logical destination for Smith is in Minnesota. The run game, the defense, the cap space to fit talent in, etc. An offseason of Alex Smith and Dwayne Bowe would be a big coup for the Vikes, along with Kyle Rudolph and AP.
Originally posted by reasonable1:
See I thought that at first myself, but the more I look at it the logical destination for Smith is in Minnesota. The run game, the defense, the cap space to fit talent in, etc. An offseason of Alex Smith and Dwayne Bowe would be a big coup for the Vikes, along with Kyle Rudolph and AP.

Not gonna happen. Minnesota won't dump Ponder just because. Compared to teams like KC and Jacksonville, Minnesota has an infinitely better QB situation. Ponder isn't great, but he's not awful and he showed a lot of improvement in his second season, passer rating, completion %, efficiency....all went up. They're not all of a sudden going to walk away from him unless they've got a chance at say...Tom Brady or Drew Brees.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Jan 29, 2013 at 9:57 PM ]