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Alex Smith: The Aftermath (Post SB)

Originally posted by SFL49ER:
This tweet right here tells the 49ers of the value they can expect to get from a team for Alex Smith: Which is not much. The qb needy teams like the aspect of teamplayer from Alex, but there is not going to be any high bidding for him because these teams are not going to sign him long term, and I believe that no team is going to make a deal for him at his salary of $8 million.

The trade deal, which is only possible because of the lack of talent in the draft, will happen in conjunction with Alex agreeing to restructure a deal. So, in reality, I believe Alex will be shopped with low expectations in return.

Heres a hypothetical: The highest bidder, IMO, will be Buffalo. They want competition for Fitzpatrick but are only offering around a fifth, because they want a prerequisite of Alex redoing his deal, and they are going to draft a qb. But Alex doesnt want to go to the AFC, much less a cold weather team, so there is no agreement from either side. So, at the end of the day, we will take a sixth or seventh from an NFC team with better talent around him so he can compete to start.
My money is on Tampa Bay giving up a seventh and getting him


LOL


49ers will get a 3rd or 4th round pick for Alex, simply because he's worth it and its a sellers market for QB's this year.


If you're a team without a QB or with a mediocre QB, who are you going to get better than Alex? Who are you going to find on the free agent market that is a better player? In regards to the draft, if you're a new GM, you don't want to take a chance with a 2nd or 3rd rounder that may or may not be ready, history says that you're more likely to wind up with an AJ Feeley than you are a Russell Wilson.


49ers will get decent compensation for Alex because be's a proven quality starter and there are plenty of QB-hungry teams desperate for talent. If Kevin Kolb who had a career QB rating of about 79, was traded for a 2nd round pick and a then-Pro-Bowl CB, and if an aging, creaky, injury-prone Carson Palmer was traded for a 1st and 2nd rounder, 49ers will be getting far better than a 7th round pick, which is absolutely nonsense.


Special teamers get traded for 7th round picks, a 28 year old QB with a rating of 104, a passing accuracy of 70% and a highly reasonable contract will draw far more.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Jan 29, 2013 at 7:46 PM ]
I'm fine with a 3rd + 4th.

I also agree that this is a business and the Niner don't owe him anything for being a good stand-up guy thru all of this QB controversy etc. He's made millions already. Time to move forward with future HOF QB, Kap
  • AmpLee
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Originally posted by SFL49ER:
Originally posted by IdahoNiner:
Originally posted by AmpLee:
Originally posted by SFL49ER:
Originally posted by Jcool:
Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet

Teams have taken note of how Alex Smith has handled this situation. If they draft a rookie, they know he'll handle it with class. That's big

Chiefs figure to be in mix of teams interested in Alex Smith (along w Bills, Cards, maybe Eagles). Interest will be real for a 1-year rental


This tweet right here tells the 49ers of the value they can expect to get from a team for Alex Smith: Which is not much. The qb needy teams like the aspect of teamplayer from Alex, but there is not going to be any high bidding for him because these teams are not going to sign him long term, and I believe that no team is going to make a deal for him at his salary of $8 million.

The trade deal, which is only possible because of the lack of talent in the draft, will happen in conjunction with Alex agreeing to restructure a deal. So, in reality, I believe Alex will be shopped with low expectations in return.

Heres a hypothetical: The highest bidder, IMO, will be Buffalo. They want competition for Fitzpatrick but are only offering around a fifth, because they want a prerequisite of Alex redoing his deal, and they are going to draft a qb. But Alex doesnt want to go to the AFC, much less a cold weather team, so there is no agreement from either side. So, at the end of the day, we will take a sixth or seventh from an NFC team with better talent around him so he can compete to start.
My money is on Tampa Bay giving up a seventh and getting him

Baseless. You sure are putting a lot of weight on a little Tweet. I'd be shocked to see a pick as low as a 5th rounder for compensation, and fully expect, based on past QB deals, that Alex with fetch easily a 2nd/3rd rounder. He's still a very young guy who proved to be a winning QB over the last two years.

LOL at a 5th. Didnt we give a 5th for Ginn?


Hes going to have to restructure his deal, dont you both agree?

His pay is very fair, but I'm sure the team trading would like more than a year worth, so Alex has a little leverage in where he goes.
Hell no. Alex Smith would be looking for backup money if it wasn't for Harbaugh. If they can a future 7th for him, Smith should still thank Harbaugh for giving him one last chance at a starting position. And I personally think Smith is a great person, he is just not more than a marginal QB. QB have to throw to their WR.
So Alex is going to be looking for leverage in his future options, so without his agreeing to a restructured deal in a place he doesnt even want to be, he will either take a huge pay cut to be OUR backup, or the Niners will allow him to choose his next destination.
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Originally posted by Young2Rice:
Sorry, yeah Alex is better then average. I was just using your adjective. You said, "average to top 10 QB."

But, anyway, that is besides the point and that wasn't the subject of our topic discussion.

As for your Staley comment we should not base our roster moves on the off chance that a player goes rogue and hurts the team because he was dissatisfied with a roster move. Can't run organizations on those types of off the wall hypotheticals.

Disrupting the locker room is not a hypothetical..happens all the time.


Originally posted by baltien:
Rewrite history? Please.

Look at Crabs first eight games of the season and then compare them to the last eight. Sure, he looked good with Alex in but he was even better with Kap in. That is indisputable.

We can guess all day about whether he would have done the same if Alex was never benched. Problem with that is your line of reasoning relies on conjecture. Whereas everything I said is verifiable fact.

Go look at the game logs. Numbers don't lie.

Crabs caught 7 more passes with Kaep than with Smith. The difference is that as the year went on Crabs started getting more YAC. Total

Maybe the ball is getting to Kaep faster and in better position to get YAC?

Or Crabs all of a sudden got better at it ?

After watching all the games again on NFL Rewind the biggest difference I noticed in the last 8 games is Kaep held the ball longer before throwing to Crab allowing him to get past the second level of the defense so he had less defenders in front of him. Also even though Crab only had 7 more receptions with Kaep he was targeted way more often than with Alex. Of course other receivers/TEs got targeted less with Kaep....
If Colin got a concussion in this game. Or a "high ankle sprain" or an "upper body injury" in this game.

Alex could and wold come in and win this game. With seven more snaps (which Harbs wouldn't give him) he would have finished #4 in rating, after finishing #9 last year. He tied Joe in all time 4th quarter regular season comebacks LAST YEAR. Detroit motherf****ers, Detroit. Delanie at the goal line with 4 seconds left. The Giants game.

THIS YEAR, he posted the TOP 2 rating games. Both over 150. By a 49er QB ever. That is EVER. In October. Something Joe or Steve never did.

Then he got concussed.

The newbs forget the 2006 Sea game where he walked into the endzone on a bootleg . Or the Denver game the next year. Fast Forward 2011.

That NO game ranks up there with the Garcia Giants Game, the Catch, JT in the Super Bowl, name any other playoff game and both nuts dropped for Alex last year.

While we are drunk with the awesome physical ability / poise that is Kaep, let us not forget that Alex brought this team / stuck with this team through the dark ages (we want carr) to get us here.

To say that that no team will trade for a #1 overall that was on an upward trajectory to go from Top 10, to Top 5, with a HUGE playoff win, 4th Quarter comebacks, playing out of his mind out at the time of his injury (last pass was a TD to Crabtree, while concussed) is nothing short of ridiculous.

Alex will be heard from again in this league. I'm going to root hard for him. Look forward to seeing him next in the Super Bowl (on the other side )
Originally posted by SFL49ER:
Hes going to have to restructure his deal, dont you both agree?

Not at all. Why would he? $8 mil for a quality starting QB is peanuts. Jason Campbell is a scrub and a backup and is making about $4 million a year. Broke down Hasselbeck is making $7.5 million a year in Tennessee.

If anything, Alex might get a pay bump were he to be released. I think you are EXTREMELY underestimating the demand for quarterbacks and that this is one of the worst offseasons for QB availability in recent memory, either through free agency or the draft. I expect the 49ers to get quite a bit better compensation for Alex than what they would have gotten last year.

A team like KC is ripe for a big turn-around and could be a potential playoff team with some solid play at quarterback, a 3rd round pick in exchange would be well worth it for them considering how solid they are across much of the roster.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Jan 29, 2013 at 7:56 PM ]
  • AmpLee
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Originally posted by SFL49ER:
So Alex is going to be looking for leverage in his future options, so without his agreeing to a restructured deal in a place he doesnt even want to be, he will either take a huge pay cut to be OUR backup, or the Niners will allow him to choose his next destination.

Not sure if I follow what you are saying here. Teams will be interested in his services and if they feel they can lock up Alex longer than a year, they will offer something of decent value. Alex can also work in this process by giving us a list of preferred teams in which we can then find the highest bidder from.
Originally posted by AmpLee:
His pay is very fair, but I'm sure the team trading would like more than a year worth, so Alex has a little leverage in where he goes.

His deal is actually a series of 3 one year deals, so if the team likes his performance, they'll be able to hold on to him for at least 2 seasons.
  • boast
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2012 QB salaries

1. Peyton Manning, Broncos - $19.2
2. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers - $17
3. Michael Vick, Eagles - $16
4. Tom Brady, Patriots - $15.7
5. Eli Manning, Giants - $15.27
6. Drew Brees, Saints - $14.4 (Franchise Tagged in 2012)
7. Phillip Rivers, Chargers - $14.04
8. Sam Bradford, Rams - $13
9. Kevin Kolb, Cardinals - $12.6
10. Matthew Stafford, Lions - $12
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons - $12
12. Mark Sanchez, Jets - $11.64
13. Tony Romo, Cowboys - $11.17
14. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - $10.83
15. Carson Palmer, Raiders - $10.75
16. Matt Cassel, Chiefs - $10.5
17. Jay Cutler, Bears - $10
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills - $9.8
19. Matt Schaub, Texans - $8
20. Alex Smith, 49ers - $8 (new contract for 2012)
21. Matt Hasselbeck, Titans - $6.67
22. Matt Flynn, Seahawks - $6.5
23. Joe Flacco, Ravens - $6
I dont think any team that needs a qb will invest a third round pick for Alex. I just dont see it. He is not guaranteed a starting spot from any team that I can tell and I just think that us Niner fans are over-qualifying his credentials--the exact opposite of what GMs around the league are doing. They know Alex is not a qb who can carry a team to 12 win seasons. Teams know also they arent going to give Alex his current contract either when they dont know if hes going to grab that starting spot, so why give a third and pay that compensation for 8-8 seasons
Originally posted by boast:
2012 QB salaries

1. Peyton Manning, Broncos - $19.2
2. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers - $17
3. Michael Vick, Eagles - $16
4. Tom Brady, Patriots - $15.7
5. Eli Manning, Giants - $15.27
6. Drew Brees, Saints - $14.4 (Franchise Tagged in 2012)
7. Phillip Rivers, Chargers - $14.04
8. Sam Bradford, Rams - $13
9. Kevin Kolb, Cardinals - $12.6
10. Matthew Stafford, Lions - $12
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons - $12
12. Mark Sanchez, Jets - $11.64
13. Tony Romo, Cowboys - $11.17
14. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - $10.83
15. Carson Palmer, Raiders - $10.75
16. Matt Cassel, Chiefs - $10.5
17. Jay Cutler, Bears - $10
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills - $9.8
19. Matt Schaub, Texans - $8
20. Alex Smith, 49ers - $8 (new contract for 2012)
21. Matt Hasselbeck, Titans - $6.67
22. Matt Flynn, Seahawks - $6.5
23. Joe Flacco, Ravens - $6

Kinda speaks for itself

#20 salary

Top 10 QB (we can argue placement but he was #9 last year #4 this year if Harbs had given him snaps (7, even if he was 0-7).

A team wil come forward and make a crazy offer. Other teams will try to match and won't match. Like with Joe in '94, the 49ers will make a trade that works for both sides.
lol Joe Flacco. Fire your agent.
Originally posted by boast:
2012 QB salaries

1. Peyton Manning, Broncos - $19.2
2. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers - $17
3. Michael Vick, Eagles - $16
4. Tom Brady, Patriots - $15.7
5. Eli Manning, Giants - $15.27
6. Drew Brees, Saints - $14.4 (Franchise Tagged in 2012)
7. Phillip Rivers, Chargers - $14.04
8. Sam Bradford, Rams - $13
9. Kevin Kolb, Cardinals - $12.6
10. Matthew Stafford, Lions - $12
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons - $12
12. Mark Sanchez, Jets - $11.64
13. Tony Romo, Cowboys - $11.17
14. Aaron Rodgers, Packers - $10.83
15. Carson Palmer, Raiders - $10.75
16. Matt Cassel, Chiefs - $10.5
17. Jay Cutler, Bears - $10
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills - $9.8
19. Matt Schaub, Texans - $8
20. Alex Smith, 49ers - $8 (new contract for 2012)
21. Matt Hasselbeck, Titans - $6.67
22. Matt Flynn, Seahawks - $6.5
23. Joe Flacco, Ravens - $6

I'm guessing Kaepernick will be somewhere in the $15-16 million range......Paraag is really going to be earning his salary over the next few years.