Week 12 Game Day Thread

Originally posted by horsecore:

Originally posted by niners4lyfe:

Originally posted by horsecore:
Good god Rob Ryan is fat.

rex is fatter

No way dood - Rob is so much fatter. Rex had lap band or stomach stapling or something.

isn't that cheating?

Nov 20, 2011 at 1:08 PM

#500

horsecore
Veteran
Posts: 4,280

Originally posted by niners4lyfe:

Originally posted by horsecore:

Originally posted by niners4lyfe:

Originally posted by horsecore:
Good god Rob Ryan is fat.

rex is fatter

No way dood - Rob is so much fatter. Rex had lap band or stomach stapling or something.

isn't that cheating?

Nov 20, 2011 at 1:09 PM

#501

mug0mug
Veteran
Posts: 16,708

Originally posted by oldtimer49er:

Originally posted by 49ersalldaway126:

Originally posted by oldtimer49er:

no ur wrong

its

1. head to head (we dont play them)
2. won % against simlar teams
3 win % against confrence

i googled it, and posted what i found on nfl.com
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

but i'll take your word for it. anyhow, point is: it's a meaningful race for #1 seed. would be pretty big deal not to have to go to lambeau if we make it the NFC championship game.

Kawakami fully broke it down a couple of days ago:

Let's run through the tie-breaker rules, supposing that the 49ers win out and Green Bay loses only once (or if they end up tied with the best records in the NFC, no matter how it happens)…

1. Head to head, which is not applicable because the 49ers and Packers do not play each other in the regular season.

2. Record in the conference.

The 49ers' loss was to Dallas, so they need Green Bay's loss to come against an NFC opponent, which would tie the teams in this category.

(If you play this out for two losses, then the 49ers can afford to lose another game if it's to Baltimore or Pitttsburgh in this scenario.)

If Green Bay's only loss is to an AFC team, then Green Bay would get the edge.

(Green Bay's remaining AFC games: Host the Raiders and at Kansas City.)

–The 49ers need to win out and see Green Bay lose one of its remaining tough NFC games (at Detroit, at the NY Giants, home vs. Chicago and Detroit), which would send it to the next tie-breaker.

3. Record vs. common opponents, minimum of 4 games.

This is where things lean towards the 49ers IF they end up with the same record as Green Bay.

The 49ers and Packers have four common foes: Detroit, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and the NY Giants.

The 49ers are 3-0 vs. those teams and have two games against St. Louis to come, which do not seem very threatening.

And IF the Packers lose one, it seems relatively likely that it could or would come on the road against the Lions or Giants.

Green Bay is 1-0 against the common teams, and plays Tampa on Sunday in Green Bay, plays at the NY Giants, and has a home-and-home against Detroit.

* Yes, if the 49ers win out and the Packers lose to Detroit or the Giants, the 49ers would win the tie-breaker and get the No. 1 seed.

But if Green Bay loses, say, to Chicago, then both teams would have tied this category and it will move to the next one…

5. Strength of victory. Edge to Green Bay, probably, thanks to the weakness of the NFC West.

I interpreted this incorrectly on the Twitter yesterday. I thought it meant point-differential, but I now realize it means the cumulative win-loss record of the teams you've beaten.

This one is very difficult to analyze because there are so many permutations with so many games for all of the teams involved to play.

At this moment, Green Bay has wins over opponents who total 35 victories.

The 49ers have wins over opponents who total 34 victories.

So that's very close–and remember that the 49ers in this scenario will have one more win than GB over the back stretch, so they'll naturally have a stronger relative total than we see now.

However, since the bulk of the 49ers' remaining games come against the NFC West, they will be hurt in this category.

The rest of the 49ers' opponent list has a combined 26 victories.

The rest of the Packers' opponent list has a combined 37 victories. Big edge to Green Bay.

I'm not going to break down the two teams in the rest of the categories since I've already spent too much time doing the last few, but here they are…

6. Strength of schedule. Again, the weakness of the NFC West hurts the 49ers here.

7. Best combined ranking in points scored and points allowed.

For example, if you're 1st in points scored and 14th in points allowed, you barely lose the tie-breaker vs. a team that is 4th in points scored and 10th in points allowed.

8. Point-differential in common games.

9. Overall point-differential.

Green Bay is currently +134. The 49ers are +95.

10. Touchdown-differential.

11. Coin flip. (Here's the list from NFL.com.) Yes, I wonder if Harbaugh could win this toss and choose to defer. Kidding!

Nov 20, 2011 at 1:12 PM

#502