MadDog49er Draft Analysis for the Class of 2017

Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
Solomon Thomas - I can't complain about this pick. I liked Lattimore sightly more, but perfectly fine with Thomas. A+

Foster - Although I prefer Cunningham over Foster, I think overall the draft was great. I had Foster as a late 1st or early 2nd round pick, so he was certainly worth the pick in the 1st. B

Witherspoon - I love the pick, I expect him to be starting at some point this year. Perfect fit for our Defense. A+

Beathard - Uhhh...what? Not only an odd pick, but trading up for him is really odd as well. I only watched a little bit of him and then turned the game off because I thought he didn't look like a draft prospect, maybe my mind would have changed if I invested more time into watching him. I guess last year's film was much better? F, but I'm perfectly happy for KS to prove me completely wrong and this guy kills it!

Joe Williams - So apparently our scouting department took him off our draft board, didn't want to take him. Its KS's pick (per MMQB article). Talent wise a great fit for KS offense. However, I would have preferred McNichols. C+

Kittle - I mocked him to us because I thought he was perfect fit for KS offense. A+

Trent Taylor - Well I can't really complain about this pick, because the guy I wanted us to pick (KD Cannon) ended up on our roster anyway, lol. But I think Stacey Coley is a better slot prospect. B-

Overall, I think our F/O did an excellent job on their first draft.

These grades are not far off from where I would put them. Would be much lower on Foster, C- at highest on him. As chronicled, too much risk for a first rounder. Lamp has almost zero bust potential, and I like that for an offense that needs a jump start. Kid is going to be a Pro-Bowler in a couple years. I know fans will love watching tape of Williams. Home run abilities for sure.

I Love the Foster and Williams picks. Under Baalke he stopped drafting players with red flags. Under Lynch mob they are taking some risks but every year the Bengals draft these type guys and have as deep a roster as anybody.

MadDog which I undrafted palyer do you see making the team and contributing?

Originally posted by GORO:
MadDog which I undrafted palyer do you see making the team and contributing?

I think Hikutini has a good shot at TE if his health is solid. He was a draftable TE in my opinion. Look out for Matt Breida, who could contribute on special teams right away in kickoff return.

In the end, it comes down to special teams. Who can contribute the most on special teams has the best shot.

Originally posted by miked1978:

The players union the players are in is hurting their development. Teams only can spend certain amount of time with their players and as an example these college spread QBs aren't developing like they should because there is no time.

If the union was worth anything, instead of focusing on the amount of time players "work' maybe they should focus more on guaranteed contracts which benefits players a lot more.

The union reps are veterans and that's exactly who the rules are designed to protect. That's why we saw the rookie contracts decrease. It allowed for a better spread of money to other/older players on the team.

Developing players isn't really a focus because it favors the vets, who are vested in the union and league. On the other side though, it's still a level playing field for rookies across the league. They're all throw into the fire. I've seen many coaches speak about how hard it is to get rookies spooled up to play year one. They no longer have the luxury of getting players in shape and comfortable with the scheme before training camp.

Edit: deleted... posted in wrong thread.

Originally posted by Vito_Corleone:
The 2017 draft worked out well. We should get many good players, but that's to be expected since we were picking high and had 11 picks. However, I agree with Mad Dog that there were several problems. I have concerns going forward about Lynch's ability to get good value for his picks. Rather than just saying "how great Lynch is", it's important that we give Lynch constructive criticism so that they improve their weaknesses.

I don't think that Lynch focuses on getting good value for his picks. He needs to learn how to play poker a little better. eg. If your BPA is going to be available in round 5 you don't draft him in round 1. If you love him you might draft in rd 3-4, but you don't want to over-pay.

Here are a few examples of where Lynch was OK with over-drafting and not getting good value

Pick #2 – Lynch admitted that he probably would have taken Rueben Foster at #3 overall if Thomas was not there!!! That would have been exceptionally poor value and a very bad decision, they should have known that he would have been there much later …. Lynch got lucky that Bears gave them so much.

Pick #34 – Lynch said that they were trying to trade up to ~#13 to pick Foster. They would have had to give up ~ #34, #66, #109 (their 2, 3 and 4) picks to trade up that high to get Foster … which would have been a big mistake … He was lucky that nobody wanted to trade down and that Foster fell so far. Otherwise he would have wasted several draft picks.

Pick #67 – the 3rd pick at the top of the 3rd rd. Trading it for a 2018 2nd is a risky move. Conceivably that 2018 pick could be the #64 pick. Most likely the New Orleans pick will be ~#42-50, still only gaining us ~20 slots, but since the 2017 draft was a deep draft they should have gotten more than a 2018 2nd + 7th . Not a good trade unless they think that the 2018 draft is better than 2017.

Pick #109 – Over-drafted Beathard. Could have had Beathard at the end of rd 4. Not a good value to fall in love and trade up and over-draft a guy. Could have picked Carl Lawson etc then picked Beathard at the end of 4th

Pick #202 & 229 – Both guys seems to be a little over-drafted. Perhaps could have traded down a little?

Trade with Broncos – 49ers give up 2018 4th (likely ~#110-115) to get #177 + Bibbs. Bibbs will likely be cut. So they gave up a valuable 2018 pick ~65 spots higher in the draft (~2 rounds). Not a good trade. Perhaps they were doing Elway a favor for giving us Peters?

It is important to get good value with your picks. There were several worrisome signs that Lynch is OK with getting poor value, so it's important that he learn not to over-draft players.

Baalke always got good value on his picks and apparently as the years went on did not care what the coaches wanted. So I am okay that they like players and trade up to get them. Tank Carradine, Corey Lemonier, Vance Mcdonald were all good value and only Vance has shown any thing.

Value is subjective. Could his guys have been there later? Maybe. But if the guy at the top of your board is available when you pick, you take him. There are no guarantees in the draft, and just because the average fan at home thinks a player will still be available in the next round, that doesn't make it so.

[b]Beathard

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by theduke85:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
No disrespect but saying Williams quit because of his sisters death is a red flag is a bit harsh IMO.

I don't think it's tasteless to discuss it. His sister died a long time ago. If he really has been battling those demons for a decade, are we really supposed to believe his problems just disappeared during a 30-day break? That sounds like wishful thinking.

Mental illness is a very serious thing. Many people have recurring bouts and highs and lows. If, 10 years after his sisters death, the pain hit him so hard that he walked away from football entirely, who's to say it won't happen again 6 months ,1 year, or 3 years down the line?

I think it's a perfectly valid concern that absolutely should be considered and can be discussed respectfully.

Just to pick up on this point, I believe that these demons that he was battling were going to stay with him until he confronted them. I used to share a flat with a bunch of medical students who were mostly beer swilling, skirt chasing party types. One of them was different, though. He was extremely bright and was training to become a neurosurgeon or neurologist or something of that kind. One night over a couple of beers he gave his opinion that whatever they did for their patients in the hospital, one of the leading hospitals in the country, was a waste of time until the light came on and the patient accepted that he had a problem. Everything after that was a lot easier.

It isn't my specialty, nowhere near it. But until the guy was ready to deal with it, it was going to hang there in the back of his mind making life tough. Once confronted, it's dealt with. There is nothing to come back, nothing to happen again. Imo.

Just to add some personal perspective to this that really dovetails with Williams' story (and sorry for the long personal story, but least in the details it really parallels everything Williams has said):

My dad died when I was 17, and from that point until I was about 25 or so I was really self-destructive and kind of a mess: I was a hair away from (deservedly) getting kicked out of a college a couple times, after I graduated from college I spent a year or two kicking around and showing up drunk to odd-jobs, and was just generally an unpleasant, unhappy, and destructive person to be around.

When I was 25 I really hit rock bottom and everything fell apart. I didn't leave my house for a month and ended up going to therapy for a month or two after that to deal with all the things I wasn't dealing with.

That's all it took. In the 15 years since then not only has none of this stuff recurred, but going through the experience has also made me a harder working, more dedicated and focused, more compassionate, and better person. From that experience, a couple months of therapy eight years after the fact totally changed my life. I'm in an incredibly happy marriage with happy children and I've had more career success than I could have ever imagined.

TL;DR -- (1) Traumatic events early in life can really do damage to a person; (2) those traumatic events can sometimes be cleaned up with a surprisingly small amount of work and self-care well after the fact; (3) rather than fear of recurring people who make it through that turn-around can end up being more dedicated and better people than they would have been without the traumatic event (and late turn-around from it) having happened to them.

EDIT: Of course this doesn't mean that Williams will be any good as a football player at the NFL level, but I think that having been through something like is as likely to INCREASE his chances as it is to decrease his chances. When you're evaluating hundreds of players I understand why you'd treat it as a flag -- he's not totally clean -- but I think anybody who has been through stuff like this and truly made it to the other side with all the wounds repaired see other people's red flag as an undervalued asset.

Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by theduke85:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

No disrespect but saying Williams quit because of his sisters death is a red flag is a bit harsh IMO.

I don't think it's tasteless to discuss it. His sister died a long time ago. If he really has been battling those demons for a decade, are we really supposed to believe his problems just disappeared during a 30-day break? That sounds like wishful thinking.

Mental illness is a very serious thing. Many people have recurring bouts and highs and lows. If, 10 years after his sisters death, the pain hit him so hard that he walked away from football entirely, who's to say it won't happen again 6 months ,1 year, or 3 years down the line?

I think it's a perfectly valid concern that absolutely should be considered and can be discussed respectfully.

Just to pick up on this point, I believe that these demons that he was battling were going to stay with him until he confronted them. I used to share a flat with a bunch of medical students who were mostly beer swilling, skirt chasing party types. One of them was different, though. He was extremely bright and was training to become a neurosurgeon or neurologist or something of that kind. One night over a couple of beers he gave his opinion that whatever they did for their patients in the hospital, one of the leading hospitals in the country, was a waste of time until the light came on and the patient accepted that he had a problem. Everything after that was a lot easier.

It isn't my specialty, nowhere near it. But until the guy was ready to deal with it, it was going to hang there in the back of his mind making life tough. Once confronted, it's dealt with. There is nothing to come back, nothing to happen again. Imo.

Just to add some personal perspective to this that really dovetails with Williams' story (and sorry for the long personal story, but least in the details it really parallels everything Williams has said):

My dad died when I was 17, and from that point until I was about 25 or so I was really self-destructive and kind of a mess: I was a hair away from (deservedly) getting kicked out of a college a couple times, after I graduated from college I spent a year or two kicking around and showing up drunk to odd-jobs, and was just generally an unpleasant, unhappy, and destructive person to be around.

When I was 25 I really hit rock bottom and everything fell apart. I didn't leave my house for a month and ended up going to therapy for a month or two after that to deal with all the things I wasn't dealing with.

That's all it took. In the 15 years since then not only has none of this stuff recurred, but going through the experience has also made me a harder working, more dedicated and focused, more compassionate, and better person. From that experience, a couple months of therapy eight years after the fact totally changed my life. I'm in an incredibly happy marriage with happy children and I've had more career success than I could have ever imagined.

TL;DR -- (1) Traumatic events early in life can really do damage to a person; (2) those traumatic events can sometimes be cleaned up with a surprisingly small amount of work and self-care well after the fact; (3) rather than fear of recurring people who make it through that turn-around can end up being more dedicated and better people than they would have been without the traumatic event (and late turn-around from it) having happened to them.

EDIT: Of course this doesn't mean that Williams will be any good as a football player at the NFL level, but I think that having been through something like is as likely to INCREASE his chances as it is to decrease his chances. When you're evaluating hundreds of players I understand why you'd treat it as a flag -- he's not totally clean -- but I think anybody who has been through stuff like this and truly made it to the other side with all the wounds repaired see other people's red flag as an undervalued asset.

Every NFL team should have a psychologist that players are required to see once a week.

Great post, really deep, we can all get carried away with things we don't truly understand.

Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:

Originally posted by English:

Originally posted by theduke85:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
No disrespect but saying Williams quit because of his sisters death is a red flag is a bit harsh IMO.

I don't think it's tasteless to discuss it. His sister died a long time ago. If he really has been battling those demons for a decade, are we really supposed to believe his problems just disappeared during a 30-day break? That sounds like wishful thinking.

Mental illness is a very serious thing. Many people have recurring bouts and highs and lows. If, 10 years after his sisters death, the pain hit him so hard that he walked away from football entirely, who's to say it won't happen again 6 months ,1 year, or 3 years down the line?

I think it's a perfectly valid concern that absolutely should be considered and can be discussed respectfully.

Just to pick up on this point, I believe that these demons that he was battling were going to stay with him until he confronted them. I used to share a flat with a bunch of medical students who were mostly beer swilling, skirt chasing party types. One of them was different, though. He was extremely bright and was training to become a neurosurgeon or neurologist or something of that kind. One night over a couple of beers he gave his opinion that whatever they did for their patients in the hospital, one of the leading hospitals in the country, was a waste of time until the light came on and the patient accepted that he had a problem. Everything after that was a lot easier.

It isn't my specialty, nowhere near it. But until the guy was ready to deal with it, it was going to hang there in the back of his mind making life tough. Once confronted, it's dealt with. There is nothing to come back, nothing to happen again. Imo.

Just to add some personal perspective to this that really dovetails with Williams' story (and sorry for the long personal story, but least in the details it really parallels everything Williams has said):

My dad died when I was 17, and from that point until I was about 25 or so I was really self-destructive and kind of a mess: I was a hair away from (deservedly) getting kicked out of a college a couple times, after I graduated from college I spent a year or two kicking around and showing up drunk to odd-jobs, and was just generally an unpleasant, unhappy, and destructive person to be around.

When I was 25 I really hit rock bottom and everything fell apart. I didn't leave my house for a month and ended up going to therapy for a month or two after that to deal with all the things I wasn't dealing with.

That's all it took. In the 15 years since then not only has none of this stuff recurred, but going through the experience has also made me a harder working, more dedicated and focused, more compassionate, and better person. From that experience, a couple months of therapy eight years after the fact totally changed my life. I'm in an incredibly happy marriage with happy children and I've had more career success than I could have ever imagined.

TL;DR -- (1) Traumatic events early in life can really do damage to a person; (2) those traumatic events can sometimes be cleaned up with a surprisingly small amount of work and self-care well after the fact; (3) rather than fear of recurring people who make it through that turn-around can end up being more dedicated and better people than they would have been without the traumatic event (and late turn-around from it) having happened to them.

EDIT: Of course this doesn't mean that Williams will be any good as a football player at the NFL level, but I think that having been through something like is as likely to INCREASE his chances as it is to decrease his chances. When you're evaluating hundreds of players I understand why you'd treat it as a flag -- he's not totally clean -- but I think anybody who has been through stuff like this and truly made it to the other side with all the wounds repaired see other people's red flag as an undervalued asset.

So sorry about your father. Events in life, positive and negative, shape who we are. Some overcome great tragedy, and some sink. Everyone reacts differently. I feel sympathy for those who have to endure horrific circumstances at a young age. Hopefully, Williams will emerge a bigger and better person on and off the field.

Originally posted by adrianlesnar:
Value is subjective. Could his guys have been there later? Maybe. But if the guy at the top of your board is available when you pick, you take him. There are no guarantees in the draft, and just because the average fan at home thinks a player will still be available in the next round, that doesn't make it so.

You are correct in stating value is subjective. In my eyes, he had value a bit later in the draft due to some of these issues.

Reuben Foster- Easily a top ten talent (for me a top 5 talent) if all factors outside of the football field are considered. Fast, tough, smooth, and solid across the board in all facets of defense (run, pass defense, pass rush). No problem covering RBs. Plays well through trash. Has no problem hitting people. Just a complete football player....on the field. The red flags come off the field, and there are numerous. Getting kicked out of the combine, to my knowledge, has never happened before, and showed a lack of self-restraint/maturity. Failing a urine test shows a complete lack of foresight, and seriousness of the moment. This is your job interview, and you failed in multiple ways. Self-admittedly poor at the whiteboard, and low Wonderlic score of 9 is another red flag for the complexities of defensive systems he will run with in the future. So, I ask myself, most MLBs are team captains and running the huddle. Is this the guy I want doing that? Hell no. If he is just a guy as an OLB, then I have better sentiments toward the pick. No one issue is a complete disaster, but the composite accumulation of all these factors tell me that he is not a clean player. And, that is the reason he sunk to the bottom of the first round. First round guys, regardless of talent, have to have a clean sheet. Call me not a fan of this pick, since there were a LOT of talented guys out there with clean sheets in front of them.

#MaddogWasRight