MadDog49er Draft Analysis for the Class of 2017

Great analysis, as always.

I'm clearly far more excited about Foster than you are. I find your concern over "leading the huddle" overstated. MIKE will lead the huddle. Foster projects to WILL. He isn't going to be asked to do anything but fly around make plays.

EDIT: if Bowman goes down again (god forbid) and they slide Foster inside, Smith takes over at WILL. Smith played his best years in this defense. He can lead the huddle.

In either case, the rookie has some solid mentors.

Originally posted by post_primitive:

Great analysis, as always.

I'm clearly far more excited about Foster than you are. I find your concern over "leading the huddle" overstated. MIKE will lead the huddle. Foster projects to WILL. He isn't going to be asked to do anything but fly around make plays.

I think he makes our pass rush much better as well. If Bow is healthy, the two of them can fly sideline to sideline and let the Sam blitz more often, effectively creating 5 down linemen most of the time!

Have you seen this video?

Seems like a good kid who maybe has some maturity issues. Lots of us did at his age. The niners spent a LOT of time with the kid and had him #3 on their board, so that's a good sign.

Show me a strong correlation between Wonderlic score and success on the field? I don't think such a correlation exists.

Seems to do just fine at the whiteboard to me. Ever had a TV camera in your face? I have. It's uncomfortable.

Originally posted by Karma:

A couple thoughts:

1. I appreciate your attempt to look at the draft as objectively as possible. As fans, we tend to think every pick is going to be the greatest to ever play the position and we ignore potential pitfalls.

2. I am actually more worried about the Thomas pick than the Foster one. I have/had high hopes for Buckner, AA, Blair, Tank, and Dial to be more effective in the new 4-3 alignment so it seems like Thomas just creates a log jam. Foster has the elite athleticism and instinct combo that makes for a great linebacker. Yes, he showed some immaturity but Lynch did his due diligence. Also, the MLB is often the leader of the defensive, but not always. For now we have Bow to do that and Foster can be mentored. If he eventually takes over for Bow but he is not the "leader" it is just as easy for a safety or down lineman to take that role.

3. You are right to call Williams past a red flag. Mental health is a serious concern. It doesn't mean the kid isn't worth drafting or has "character" issues, but it does mean he has the potential to struggle with stress or challenges. Hopefully the team has counselors on retainer and the kid can continue to process his grief and guilt.

4. Your criticism of Beathard, and to a lesser extend Colbert, echos my concerns at the time, but I had another thought. In the past we have seen players drafted based on outstanding measurables. The thought was we could coach these raw freaks up to be studs. I think Beathard and Colbert were selected because they demonstrated leadership and IQ on the field. They might be guys who know the game and can excel if given the opportunity to outwork the competition. I am not sure either will pan out, but it is an interesting idea.

Overall, I am pleased with this draft. I love the Foster and Williams picks the most, but the chance to watch these guys develop and surprise is exciting. Thanks again for all the work you do on this board!

Thanks for the kind thoughts. Objectivity is always the key to any fair evaluation

Originally posted by pahlerbj:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
No disrespect but saying Williams quit because of his sisters death is a red flag is a bit harsh IMO.

I agree, his sister dying in his arms isn't really a "funk".

I'm really pulling for this guy, hope he turns into a solid pro.

When you lose a family member suddenly, it can paralyze you, you feel like you can't even breath. Williams seems to have over come a lot already in my view, he just needs a strong supporting locker room and he'll be fine. I love the pick!

Originally posted by Sourball:
As always, look forward to, and enjoy your take on things MadDog
As for the troubled players, free agency brought in all high character guys plus our small core of solid talent we kept that should show these guys how to be pros and toe the line.
We could have really used a fiery Charles Haley type to wake up the team last year. Remember Charles Haleys meltdown when we lost to the Raiders and then Raider Ronnie Lott had to go to the 49ers locker room and calm him down? Last years team was sleepwalking through the season and.nobody on the team seemed to have the fire to wake them
Foster- He says Willis's greatness is his goal? If I were Lynch I would get PW around him to mentor the guy.
(Too bad Gore isn't still here to take Williams under his wing).
With multiple holes in the team, there is no way to fill all the needs in one off season so I'm hoping this is the core and next year will bring FQB, stud WR and pass rusher to plug into a solid nucleus.
JMO
What is your take on the UDFAs? Any diamonds there?

Rarely do you find much beyond role players in undrafted free agents, but you never know. The Niners are bringing in a lot of guys. I like Cannon, Breida, Hikutini and Golden, who they might convert to a big corner. These were good college players. Breida could make the roster simply based on special teams. Hikutini was as good or better than 5 TEs drafted.

I don't get how you can be labeled a top 5 talent and arguably one of the best in the draft, but are too incompetent to run an NFL defense.

Originally posted by Karma:
2. I am actually more worried about the Thomas pick than the Foster one. I have/had high hopes for Buckner, AA, Blair, Tank, and Dial to be more effective in the new 4-3 alignment so it seems like Thomas just creates a log jam. Foster has the elite athleticism and instinct combo that makes for a great linebacker. Yes, he showed some immaturity but Lynch did his due diligence. Also, the MLB is often the leader of the defensive, but not always. For now we have Bow to do that and Foster can be mentored. If he eventually takes over for Bow but he is not the "leader" it is just as easy for a safety or down lineman to take that role.

4. Your criticism of Beathard, and to a lesser extend Colbert, echos my concerns at the time, but I had another thought. In the past we have seen players drafted based on outstanding measurables. The thought was we could coach these raw freaks up to be studs. I think Beathard and Colbert were selected because they demonstrated leadership and IQ on the field. They might be guys who know the game and can excel if given the opportunity to outwork the competition. I am not sure either will pan out, but it is an interesting idea.

Just a couple of thoughts. While I would rather have seen the Niners take Adams instead of Thomas -- I 'm just not enamored of either SS they have -- his selection makes a lot of sense if you watched the second half of the Superbowl, where Atlanta's DL simply ran out of gas, and didn't have what it took to prevent NE's historic comeback -- which wouldn't have happened if they had substituted effectively throughout the game. Thomas's highlight reels notwithstanding, he spent lots of games not doing much -- except getting double and triple teamed -- but he always seemed to have lots of stamina at the end of games, where he did a lot of his damage. In a grueling 16-game season, your defense had better have enough juice to survive.

4. Your criticism of Beathard, and to a lesser extend Colbert, echos my concerns at the time, but I had another thought. In the past we have seen players drafted based on outstanding measurables. The thought was we could coach these raw freaks up to be studs. I think Beathard and Colbert were selected because they demonstrated leadership and IQ on the field. They might be guys who know the game and can excel if given the opportunity to outwork the competition. I am not sure either will pan out, but it is an interesting idea.

It was telling that the first words out of Shanahan's mouth were that he was impressed Beathard worked through so much adversity in his last season. How many Niner QBs from the 2016 season impressed *anyone* in that regard? Shanny seems of the opinion that regardless of other gifts or measureables, a QB without grit is just not going to be successful. He probably sees Beathard as someone with the experience under center, footwork, arm, and other tools who will require very little teaching or baby sitting while he develops into a Gary Kubiak-type role as someone who won't lose a game if the starter can't go back in, and who will give the team a fighting chance if he needs to start games himself. What is unclear is whether Shanny et al. can make him more decisive, which would appear to be his flaw. If he can be coached up that way, he should thrive in this system.

Originally posted by Karma:

Originally posted by post_primitive:
Great analysis, as always.

I'm clearly far more excited about Foster than you are. I find your concern over "leading the huddle" overstated. MIKE will lead the huddle. Foster projects to WILL. He isn't going to be asked to do anything but fly around make plays.

I think he makes our pass rush much better as well. If Bow is healthy, the two of them can fly sideline to sideline and let the Sam blitz more often, effectively creating 5 down linemen most of the time!

My favorite Foster highlight is on an LSU kickoff return with Fournette at full throttle suddenly having all forward progress stopped and winding up on his butt. He looks around for the steel fencepost that whacked him out of nowhere. That was Foster. "Mr. Fournette, here's your woo-lick."

Originally posted by PacTiger:
He was kicked out of uconn because he used a stolen credit card. Just before he was kicked out he was also accused of shoplifting. This kid seems to have an emotional unbalance. Quitting football because of his sisters death can be viewed several different ways when you take into account everything about him.

Re: emotional imbalance, I read that he was in fact diagnosed with manic-depressive disorder (aka bi-polar) and that a big part of his turnaround with returning to the football team was discovering and getting treated, for the first time, for that condition. With the resources an NFL team has, I think there's every chance he'll be able to manage that condition going forward.

Comparing Lynch draft and MadDog's by filling of positions and quality. Looking at it through this lens, I give the edge to Lynch, 6-3 with 2 ties. Of course you can't judge a draft for several years, but that doesn't stop us from trying.

DE: Thomas/Thomas even (duh)

ILB: Foster/Blair Brown Lynch (not close)

CB: Witherspoon/Kazee Lynch

QB: Beathard/ none Lynch

RB: J Williams/ none Lynch

TE: Kittle/Butt Lynch (no ACL's!

WR: Taylor/Kupp MadDog (not close)

NT: D Jones/none Lynch

S: Colbert/Woods MadDog (woods could be great)

OL: none/Lamp/Tom MadDog

OLB: Taumoepenu/Adams even (I guess, hard to know)

Thanks MD!

great to read a clear, well thought out post w/out the emotional drama so many ppl put in.

I think Thomas will make both AA & Buck better by reducing double teams on them.

Very telling that they couldn't unload Vance

Agree w/your overall grade

Foster is the Lynchpin [pun intended]

If he stays out of trouble this could be "THE" steal of the draft.

Also, IMO, we won't be picking #2 next year and the extra pick we've accumulated will be ammo to move up to get a FQB.

Excellent job MD!!!

Regarding Williams. Good thing the 49ers had an open mind and doubled back on him. He is immensely talented and will take Hyde's job or at least the majority of carries by the middle of the year. Probably because Hyde will be hurt but also because Joe at some point will be better. Just my opinion. Also you don't downgrade a guy because he had to get his head straight. I've seen some comments in here saying but it was 10 years ago. I don't care jerk offs. Whether it was 10 years ago or 5 minutes ago it was his sister and she died in his arms.

All these guys have issues and some sort of red flags if you dig deep enough. They are football players which means they are already off a bit. That's just irritating to read stuff like that whether it's a discussion or an argument. There are 32 teams who know a lot more about these players than you do and some of your opinions or critiques just don't need to be shared. I'm trying to help you out so you don't sound so ignorant. You don't like that? It's just healthy dialogue.

Originally posted by Karma:
The thought was we could coach these raw freaks up to be studs. I think Beathard and Colbert were selected because they demonstrated leadership and IQ on the field. They might be guys who know the game and can excel if given the opportunity to outwork the competition. I am not sure either will pan out, but it is an interesting idea.

Overall, I am pleased with this draft. I love the Foster and Williams picks the most, but the chance to watch these guys develop and surprise is exciting. Thanks again for all the work you do on this board!

That is pretty much what New England does. They don't always get the best or most physically dominant guys, they bring in really smart players and assign them fairly complex roles within their overall scheme, roles those guys can pick up and execute at a high level. They've long been prioritizing intelligence in their players and emphasizing execution at a high level over individual prowess or strength.

Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
Thanks MD!

great to read a clear, well thought out post w/out the emotional drama so many ppl put in.

I think Thomas will make both AA & Buck better by reducing double teams on them.

Very telling that they couldn't unload Vance

Agree w/your overall grade

Foster is the Lynchpin [pun intended]

If he stays out of trouble this could be "THE" steal of the draft.

Also, IMO, we won't be picking #2 next year and the extra pick we've accumulated will be ammo to move up to get a FQB.

Excellent job MD!!!

I don't think that the 49ers were just looking to give him away for free, they wanted to get some good value back and with one of the deepest drafts at TE in a long time, that just wasn't happening. The Browns cut a former Pro Bowl TE in Barnidge and I'm guessing before they did that they took a survey of what his trade market looked like as well. Personally I hope Vance uses this as motivation to step his game up, to focus better because he and Kittle as a #1/#2 duo could be pretty scary for opposing defenses, having two very athletic TE's that can both block and fly down the field too. That could be a lot of fun.