Maybe This guy in the 7th...or as a UDFA for ant team....and that's a big maybe....from collegefootballmetrics
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NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: QB Kyle Sloter, No. Colorado
Also, notice how effortless the throws are. Sloter was clocked as the second-fastest thrower in the 2017 NFL Draft class (58 MPH). The ball rockets out of his hand and is almost always on the money
The retort some people might have right about now: "Well, yeah but…this was FCS level. So, it isn't as impressive." First of all, many endorsed an FCS quarterback as the #1–2 overall guy last NFL Draft, a guy who has about half of the natural passing skills Sloter has – North Dakota State's Carson Wentz. Wentz had a slow delivery/wind up and showed limited ability to throw downfield in college. Sloter throws darts all over the field with the greatest of ease. I've scouted both Wentz and Sloter…and it's not even close in comparison in their pure quarterbacking arm talents and instincts. Again, you may think I'm nuts – those of you who are slaves to mainstream scouting that burns you all the time. The issue is not how far off football analysts often are – the issue is you keep following it and never questioning it (not my subscribers, of course). Sloter is a better natural talent than Wentz, and that's an easy call. Sloter is about the same height with a better arm and has similar/faster (clocked) feet. Carson Wentz had one 300-yard passing game as a starter in his college career (23 starts). Sloter came off the bench as a backup not working much with the first team and dropped nearly 400 yards and 6 TDs in his debut. I could rattle off several statistical markers in favor of Sloter over Wentz.
I will agree with you on this – we don't have a lot of tape/games in which to scout Sloter. I get that, and it is an issue. I wish there were more video but there isn't. You've read the story I linked you to, so you know why. I have plenty of tape that shows me DeShone Kizer isn't very good. I have limited tape that tells me Kyle Sloter may be great…I just don't know for sure – but I sure would like to find out for the cost of a 5th-to-7th-round draft pick.
What I see with Sloter is a natural talent. I'm not sure how fast he'll adjust to the NFL speed, but I do know he has the natural talent and character to warrant a chance to figure it out. We really could be staring down a Kurt Warner situation here. The raw skill was sitting there but no one saw it or had 'reasons' why not to try. Everyone was immediately biased against Warner because 'Northern Iowa' is not 'Alabama' or whatever the hot school was at the time. You can see the raw, natural skills on tape with Sloter…it's sitting right there for the taking. His college level of play should not be a huge factor for the NFL Draft price being asked.
Sloter's early NFL career may be influenced somewhat by small school bias and limited roster space. Teams do not like carrying a developmental third QB unless that QB was endorsed by the mainstream (see: Christian Hackenberg, E.J. Manuel, Geno Smith, Connor Cook, etc.). Sloter won't have that in his favor. He's going to have to flash fast or grind/bounce around the league for a bit…and bouncing around never helps a quarterback get a fair chance later. It's almost like a QB prospect is marked for life if other teams cut them…unless they played for the Patriots, and then we assume the Pats/Belichick know more than anyone else (and they usually do) and ex-Patriots usually get more looks.
I can't guarantee anything other than that his data and backstory are just begging for someone to make Sloter a priority later in the draft – rather than just a name on the list among a sea of day three draft names.
Kyle Sloter, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:
19 of Sloter's 29 TD passes in 2016 were from 20 or more yards out.
In his three toughest games on the schedule (D1 Colorado State, Eastern Washington, and North Dakota), Sloter averaged 59.3% comp pct., 2.7 TDs/1.3 INTs, and 297.7 yards per game.
In games where Sloter was 'cut loose' with 30 or more pass attempts in a game (6 games), he averaged 3.8 TD passes/0.8 INTs, 340.3 passing yards per game.
6-of-12 for 100 yards against Montana – an odd game where Montana had a 40-20 advantage in time of possession, but Sloter threw 2 TDs passes among just 6 completions…including a game winner with 3+ minutes remaining.
37.3% UNC 3rd down conversions in games Sloter started.
60.0% (9-of-15) 4th down conversions in games Sloter started.
Pro Day data (indoors due to weather, on a basketball court for most drills)
6′4.8″/222, 32.5 arm length, 9.8″ hand size
4.65 40-time, 7.00 three-cone
38 Wonderlic score
Sloter's college stats on WashingtonPost.com:
http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/kyle-sloter-player-stats
The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Kyle Sloter Most Compares Within Our System:
Our system had a hard time locating anything that compared closely to the unusual data and measurables of Sloter. I think a cross between Jared Goff and Marcus Mariota has some logic – comfortable and accurate like Goff (at least he was before LA 2016) with the quick, decisive delivery like Mariota…and Sloter can run the ball better than most (but not as talented a runner as Mariota)
Kurt Warner comes to mind for me, mostly. Because I remember watching Warner be so amazing, so precise…and even at my young age, with an untrained eye, I was saying to myself – how did all these highly paid football people miss Kurt Warner completely? You could tell in an instant, in his debut with the Rams, that Kurt Warner was immensely gifted. How did everyone not see it in his college play or in NFL practices? They weren't looking! Sloter looks that good to me in an instant – and I'm shocked he hasn't been the 'sleeper' buzz QB prospect of 2017 by now.
Warner got thrown into the fire in the NFL, like Sloter did with Northern Colorado in 2016, and Warner walked in somewhat cold in his debut NFL season as a starter – and won the league MVP and a Super Bowl. How was that possible? How are the greatest players at the most critical position in a sport/business completely missed by experts and coaches? All our computer scouting models are saying is – kick the tires on Sloter and see if there is some magic waiting to unfold.
Show entriesSearch:
QB-Score QB Yr College H W adj Comp Pct adj Yds per Comp adj Pass per TD adj Pass Per INT
7.549 Sloter, Kyle 2017 No. Colorado 76.8 222 63.3% 13.131 12.585 28.207
9.013 Goff, Jared 2016 Cal 75.5 215 64.2% 13.158 14.328 39.401
7.557 Mariota, Marcus 2015 Oregon 76.0 211 65.4% 13.876 14.107 119.571
10.657 Bradford, Sam 2010 Oklahoma 76.3 236 67.0% 13.450 10.327 34.324
8.762 Savage, Tom 2014 Pittsburgh 76.2 235 60.9% 12.953 16.570 56.024
9.865 Rivers, Philip 2004 NC State 77.0 229 68.1% 11.997 14.178 58.063
8.567 Kolb, Kevin 2007 Houston 75.1 218 64.1% 13.845 15.483 256.250
8.057 Webb, Davis 2017 Cal 76.5 229 59.4% 11.862 18.696 35.250
7.492 Pike, Tony 2010 Cincinnati 77.8 223 58.9% 10.575 14.437 40.987Showing 1 to 9 of 9 entriesPreviousNext
*"Adj" = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.
**A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL good-to-great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite.
QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today's NFL—with the right circumstances…but they are not 'the next Tom Brady' guys, just NFL-useful guys.
2017 NFL Draft Outlook:
A couple of weeks ago, I would have said Sloter is a great UDFA priority, but the more I talk to people about his Pro Day and workouts, and the more I share his story with football people – the more momentum is picking up for Sloter to be a late-round draft pick.
It's not like 1–3 teams are sitting back on this secret and hope to pounce after the draft. This has grown into half the league making contact with him of late, and a growing number of teams are targeting him as a late priority – some team will have to make this pick or it will be a frenzy of phone calls hoping he picks them after the draft. Easier for a team to draft him than to get lucky after.
NFL Outlook: It all has to do with what team he lands with and whether they give him a real chance…or whether fate or Providence intervenes. The GM could love his story and his talent and the head coach might want nothing to do with it in favor of a ninth offensive guard for the 53-man Sadly, that happens…a lot. If Sloter lands with a team that will see the potential and work with it – they may strike gold sooner rather than later.
— R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He's also a contributor for FantasyPros, Advanced Sports Logic, and various other football websites annually.
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[ Edited by highway49 on Apr 23, 2017 at 12:44 PM ]