Top 66 prospects in tiers

Tier 1
Myles Garrett DE

Tier 2
Soloman Thomas DE
Marshon Lattimore CB
Malik Hooker FS
Jamal Adams SS
Jonathon Allen DT
Rueben Foster ILB
Leonard Fournette RB

Tier 3
Mike Williams WR
Corey Davis WR
Deshaun Watson QB
Mitch Trubisky QB
Derek Barnett DE
OJ Howard TE
Hassan Reddick ILB/OLB

Tier 4 to be continued

Doing this to look at trade down scenarios. To me trading with Carolina to # 8 makes sense as we could grab anyone in tier 2. Then the next potential trade down scenario has to stop at #15 as we could grab someone from tier 3.... Started this and got busy with my kids. Continue tomorrow. Thoughts so far are welcome.

Obviously the QB's are debatable but that's where I see them potentially. Realize everyone will have there own thoughts. I'm a big Watson guy but at the right spot... 9-15 for me

Originally posted by davidboutte:
Obviously the QB's are debatable but that's where I see them potentially. Realize everyone will have there own thoughts. I'm a big Watson guy but at the right spot... 9-15 for me

Yes, good points, a trade down within the top 8 might be good, since could grab a top tier player + extra picks

I think Trubisky is the top QB and he will also go in the top 8

Gotta move Howard up imo. Great blocker to go with a freak athlete matchup nightmare.

Originally posted by davidboutte:

Tier 4 to be continued

Nice thread, I like your thinking with trade scenarios embedded, I think this is much like the FO will be doing.

Only thing I'd do is taylor it to us specifically, for example I think Fournette is a tier 2 player in a gap scheme but lower for us.

IMO Corey Davis makes it to tier 2, McCaffrey and maybe Dalvin Cook in tier 3, and Jabril Peppers might make it as well.

Good work

As you continue this, if you do, it is going to get increasingly difficult. It may help if you define each tier before you populate it. Something like:

Tier 1 (outstanding players, starters from day 1, potential franchise players)

Tier 2 (Probable starters within 4 games, prospective DROTY/OROTY)

etc.

I think you have to move Thomas to Tier 1, he's that good.

Originally posted by mayo49:

I think you have to move Thomas to Tier 1, he's that good.

Is he good enough to consider if the Browns pass on Garrett? I think the point the OP is making is that no one is

Originally posted by English:

As you continue this, if you do, it is going to get increasingly difficult. It may help if you define each tier before you populate it. Something like:

Tier 1 (outstanding players, starters from day 1, potential franchise players)

Tier 2 (Probable starters within 4 games, prospective DROTY/OROTY)

etc.

The trouble with this is that criteria would vary by position (some positions are more valuable) and even then, you have consider both the floor and ceilings of players. Mahomes probably isn't a starter in the first year or two, but may be a tier 2 or tier 3 player given his potential and the importance of QBs.

Having very fixed criteria may result in a much worse list because there are always exceptions and players who should be much higher/lower based on other criteria that aren't part of your definitions (Joe Mixon could fit in tier 2 by your definition, but off-field issues should drop him). Barnett would also fall in tier 2 based on your definition because he has an extremely high floor and should be able to start right away and be productive, but he doesn't have much room to develop because he's a limited athlete with very short arms who already has great hand usage/technique.

Originally posted by mayo49:

I think you have to move Thomas to Tier 1, he's that good.

He's not even close to Garrett as a prospect. The difference between Garrett and anyone in tier 2 is bigger than the difference between Thomas and the top players in tier 3.

I could understand there being a 2a with Thomas, Hooker, Lattimore who I think are a little better than the rest of the tier.

Garrett plays a more valuable position in most defenses (edge rusher) and is the best prospect there in a long time (possibly ever). He's bigger, stronger, faster, and more explosive than just about any edge rusher in the league and he also has Aldon Smith-esque arm length (35 1/4"). He was also more productive than Clowney in college even though he was hurt junior year and played limited snaps.

There isn't a prospect in this class close to Garrett which is why he's the consensus #1 pick right now even though the Browns don't need an edge rusher.

Originally posted by davidboutte:
Doing this to look at trade down scenarios. To me trading with Carolina to # 8 makes sense as we could grab anyone in tier 2. Then the next potential trade down scenario has to stop at #15 as we could grab someone from tier 3.... Started this and got busy with my kids. Continue tomorrow. Thoughts so far are welcome.

I have been fried for this, but if the 49ers are sincere in trading down they will need to do it for substantially LESS than the draft value chart. To go from 2 to 8 they most realistically would only acquire the same pick in round 2, which is way way undervalued, but it will be the only trade on the table. If they can pick up the 8th pick in round 1 and 2 from Carolina I think Lynch makes the deal, as the team has so many holes.

They then could make one more trade back and still potentially get a second rounder to move down but still be in top 15.

This would be an ideal scenario, dual trade down and still grab OJ Howard, Barnett or a QB.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Originally posted by English:

As you continue this, if you do, it is going to get increasingly difficult. It may help if you define each tier before you populate it. Something like:

Tier 1 (outstanding players, starters from day 1, potential franchise players)

Tier 2 (Probable starters within 4 games, prospective DROTY/OROTY)

etc.

The trouble with this is that criteria would vary by position (some positions are more valuable) and even then, you have consider both the floor and ceilings of players. Mahomes probably isn't a starter in the first year or two, but may be a tier 2 or tier 3 player given his potential and the importance of QBs.

Having very fixed criteria may result in a much worse list because there are always exceptions and players who should be much higher/lower based on other criteria that aren't part of your definitions (Joe Mixon could fit in tier 2 by your definition, but off-field issues should drop him). Barnett would also fall in tier 2 based on your definition because he has an extremely high floor and should be able to start right away and be productive, but he doesn't have much room to develop because he's a limited athlete with very short arms who already has great hand usage/technique.

Whilst I don't disagree with you, if there are no stated criteria the lists become simply a gut reaction to each player. To use your Mixon example I would expect that there would be sufficient flexibility to take his individual situation into account. It pretty much goes without saying that a view as to the athlete's future is taken into account.

But without any definition or stated criteria, how is Tier 4 going to be populated?

Originally posted by English:

Whilst I don't disagree with you, if there are no stated criteria the lists become simply a gut reaction to each player. To use your Mixon example I would expect that there would be sufficient flexibility to take his individual situation into account. It pretty much goes without saying that a view as to the athlete's future is taken into account.

But without any definition or stated criteria, how is Tier 4 going to be populated?

Again we await the OP, but it looks to me like ranges of players for trade downs or trade ups. It looks like his Tier will have people available at the end of the first who would make our team better. I like this thread a lot