Draft take-aways

My favorite weekend on the NFL calendar has come and gone. The last 12 months or so have been the hardest on me as a fan in the 25+ years I have followed this team. I have had to take a step back while the storm subsided. Well, the storm is still raging but I think the sunlight is on its way. Time will tell if this draft class is a success, but the story it tells is interesting:

1. Chip Kelly feels ok about the current wide receivers

-> Waiting until the 6th to take a WR tells me Kelly is at least intriguiged by what he has. Torrey Smith still has elite speed, Smelter has possession receiver written all over his gigantic hands, And Ellington always seemed like a guy who wasn't being used properly. I think they are really high on Rogers, considering how quiet they have otherwise been in free agency, and Patton is still around. Add a hand full of young guys with something to prove and Kelly might be able to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

2. There were too many needs to address them all this time

-> Guard, Tackle, CB, ILB, OLB, DE, QB... There was just no way they were going to bring in an impact player everywhere. So, they looked at the board and they decided to load up on a few. I thought Baalke did ok. Not great, not sexy, but ok. He focused on the interior of both sides of the ball and we should be much better there. The CBs have a TON of potential, but they are also bust prone.

3. The team is going to let most of or all of its free agents walk in the next few years

-> Chip Kelly looked the roster and didn't see much worth keeping in the long term. The team resigned Dial, Celek, and Ian Williams as solid rotational guys and would have spent more but no one else was worth it. Guys like Brock, Brooks, Wilhoite, TJE, Dorsey, Lemonier, Pears, etc will not be around in a year or two. Either they walk or they will be cut. The next big contracts will be for guys like Hyde and Lynch.

4. Free agency was never going to be big for us

-> We all know Baalke has never been big on free agency, but he has used it to supplement stronger rosters. This is not a strong roster. There was never a point to spending money on big names just to do it. He'll put some of that money to use when other teams trim down, but plenty of it will just go unspent for now. I'm ok with that. Josh Norman wasn't going to get us over the hump.

5. We are going to suck again

-> This roster is still pretty bad. The QB situation is a mess, we did not upgrade any of the offensive skill positions, and learning a new and rather complicated offense is going to be tough. The good news is, we will have less holes to fill in next year's draft.,

6. This team is far from done making roster moves

-> As teams all over the league received an infusion of young talent this weekend, vets will find themselves replaced or cut for salary cap reasons. Now the Niners can fill some voids. They probably won't find any superstars, but a solid ILB to compete with Hodges or a swing tackle aren't far fetched. They have the money and the roster versatility to do it.

I agree that we're rebuilding, and that we weren't going to be able to address all our weaknesses in this ONE draft. I do wish that Baalke would have done a little more moving around, I don't mind the move up to get Garnett, because there's no guarantee he would have been there at 37, and with him being in the 1st round, we get an extra year of control on him. I do wish that he would have moved down a little here and there, because some of his guys were a bit of a reach, and if he would hvae moved down a little, we could have netted more picks that we could have used to get picks in 2017.

I wouldn't have walked out of this draft with 11 players, I would have walked away with like 7-8, and a bunch of picks for 2017. It is what it is though, and hopefully we're able to unload some of these players that we don't really need anymore (Bethea, Brooks) and others, for some picks in 2017. I know we won't get great picks for them, but anything is better than nothing, and having more draft ammo next year will help in our rebuild.

Nice read! I agree!

I believe we are going to improve as a team, playing better football! Our lines are going to be better and some hidden talent are going to pop up! Eli Harold, Carradine, Smelter and some of the new draft picks!

But with a tough schedule we are still going to finish bottom 5 in the league and be in a position next year to grab our QB!

Agree and disagree on the free agents point. I believe Baalke is protecting, the 4th round comp pick we will receive for Boone next year, which BTW, will be tradeable for the 1st time. Therefore, he will probably sign more FAs after May 12 where FAs don't count towards comp picks.

I think we will pick up a couple come roster cut-down time. But I think the thing is, thanks to the last 2 head coaches and some of the coordinators, I don't think we really know what we already have on the roster. I am hoping that we have finally brought together a coaching team which can develop these young players and if we have, it could be a very interesting season.

Two to three starters out of this draft. The O line transformed and a D line to brag about. It may take time to bring it all together, but we do appear to be going in the right direction and despite the schedule strength I think this will show during the season. Looking for breakout years from various players. Tartt and Smelter for starters with others not far behind. Interested to see if Carradine can finally click.

Takeaway: Trent likes CB's

Originally posted by Bobdawg78:

I agree that we're rebuilding, and that we weren't going to be able to address all our weaknesses in this ONE draft. I do wish that Baalke would have done a little more moving around, I don't mind the move up to get Garnett, because there's no guarantee he would have been there at 37, and with him being in the 1st round, we get an extra year of control on him. I do wish that he would have moved down a little here and there, because some of his guys were a bit of a reach, and if he would hvae moved down a little, we could have netted more picks that we could have used to get picks in 2017.

I wouldn't have walked out of this draft with 11 players, I would have walked away with like 7-8, and a bunch of picks for 2017. It is what it is though, and hopefully we're able to unload some of these players that we don't really need anymore (Bethea, Brooks) and others, for some picks in 2017. I know we won't get great picks for them, but anything is better than nothing, and having more draft ammo next year will help in our rebuild.

All of that is assuming that you could find willing trade partner. Baalke has always been known for trading around and grabbing a few picks for next year, but maybe other GMs weren't willing.

Originally posted by flynhayn15:

Agree and disagree on the free agents point. I believe Baalke is protecting, the 4th round comp pick we will receive for Boone next year, which BTW, will be tradeable for the 1st time. Therefore, he will probably sign more FAs after May 12 where FAs don't count towards comp picks.

I think that's a fair point. Comp picks are essentially like trading a player.

Originally posted by Vito_Corleone:

Takeaway: Trent likes CB's

And guys who tear their ACL

Originally posted by DanielLeal:

Nice read! I agree!

I believe we are going to improve as a team, playing better football! Our lines are going to be better and some hidden talent are going to pop up! Eli Harold, Carradine, Smelter and some of the new draft picks!

But with a tough schedule we are still going to finish bottom 5 in the league and be in a position next year to grab our QB!

Who are the top QBs next year....?

Wow, good discussion so far. I guess the trolls are sleeping in on a Sunday morning. (EDIT: oops, Truman showed up between the time I started writing and when I posted).

FWIW, my take:

1. I don't think Kelly had much of a hand in this draft. He may have contributed his opinion on a few players that may have influenced their place on the Niners board, but doubt it had much effect by the end of the day (with the possible exception of the Driskell pick). I doubt he knows what he has with the offense yet, and won't until he has a few games under his belt. And Baalke even less, since a lot will depend on the offense actually executing on Kelly's game plans. We're going to see lots of shuffling during the season as Kelly figures out the optimal combination of players for different situations on the field. And only then will he know who can play and who can't. By the way, same goes for the defense under O'Neil: he doesn't know what he has, either, after the Mangini experiment, which bears little resemblance to his approach.

2. We saw Baalke going after BPA on the Niners board time and again. Need may have influenced some of the picks -- I'm sure the weakness of the OL and DL last season was always lurking in the back of his mind -- but like his choice of Aaron Lynch, on days 2 and 3, he took intriguing players who had slid, or who represented great value at their draft position and happened to coincide with needs.

3. There is no expectation that the team will make the playoffs next year. Clearly, there are several holes that this draft was never going to fill (no way to address all the gaps for starters unless the Niners had been picking 1 or 2 and could rip off desperate rubes who wanted QBs). Although the addition of Buckner should benefit the LBs, they still lack quality at ILB and OLB. The OL should be better, but they still lack a quality center (and Staley isn't getting any younger, so replacing him will be a screaming priority soon). I don't think they have a true #1 receiver yet, and we simply don't know how the corps as a group will fare in a Kelly offense. RB could be a mess. And while I think the QBs will prosper under Kelly, if he plans to their strengths, if the Niners are picking high next year and there's a franchise QB available while they're on the clock, they'll go for him.

Good post buddy.

There's not much to disagree with.

When we traded back into the 1st, I thought for sure that we were going to draft Jack.

If we would've drafted Bucker, and Jack, it would've been perfect.

I'm really excited about our D-Line this year. Buckner and Blair are big upgrades. (bye bye TJE)

Shocked we didn't take a LB at all. But if Tank & Harold come around we might be in good shape there.

I think we are fine at RB, and at TE. These 2 new OT's should give us hope.

Also biggest surprise to me was us not drafting a C.

Originally posted by Karma:
My favorite weekend on the NFL calendar has come and gone. The last 12 months or so have been the hardest on me as a fan in the 25+ years I have followed this team. I have had to take a step back while the storm subsided. Well, the storm is still raging but I think the sunlight is on its way. Time will tell if this draft class is a success, but the story it tells is interesting:

1. Chip Kelly feels ok about the current wide receivers

-> Waiting until the 6th to take a WR tells me Kelly is at least intriguiged by what he has. Torrey Smith still has elite speed, Smelter has possession receiver written all over his gigantic hands, And Ellington always seemed like a guy who wasn't being used properly. I think they are really high on Rogers, considering how quiet they have otherwise been in free agency, and Patton is still around. Add a hand full of young guys with something to prove and Kelly might be able to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

2. There were too many needs to address them all this time

-> Guard, Tackle, CB, ILB, OLB, DE, QB... There was just no way they were going to bring in an impact player everywhere. So, they looked at the board and they decided to load up on a few. I thought Baalke did ok. Not great, not sexy, but ok. He focused on the interior of both sides of the ball and we should be much better there. The CBs have a TON of potential, but they are also bust prone.

3. The team is going to let most of or all of its free agents walk in the next few years

-> Chip Kelly looked the roster and didn't see much worth keeping in the long term. The team resigned Dial, Celek, and Ian Williams as solid rotational guys and would have spent more but no one else was worth it. Guys like Brock, Brooks, Wilhoite, TJE, Dorsey, Lemonier, Pears, etc will not be around in a year or two. Either they walk or they will be cut. The next big contracts will be for guys like Hyde and Lynch.

4. Free agency was never going to be big for us

-> We all know Baalke has never been big on free agency, but he has used it to supplement stronger rosters. This is not a strong roster. There was never a point to spending money on big names just to do it. He'll put some of that money to use when other teams trim down, but plenty of it will just go unspent for now. I'm ok with that. Josh Norman wasn't going to get us over the hump.

5. We are going to suck again

-> This roster is still pretty bad. The QB situation is a mess, we did not upgrade any of the offensive skill positions, and learning a new and rather complicated offense is going to be tough. The good news is, we will have less holes to fill in next year's draft.,

6. This team is far from done making roster moves

-> As teams all over the league received an infusion of young talent this weekend, vets will find themselves replaced or cut for salary cap reasons. Now the Niners can fill some voids. They probably won't find any superstars, but a solid ILB to compete with Hodges or a swing tackle aren't far fetched. They have the money and the roster versatility to do it.

Good post!

Originally posted by 49erThrowback:
Wow, good discussion so far. I guess the trolls are sleeping in on a Sunday morning. (EDIT: oops, Truman showed up between the time I started writing and when I posted).

FWIW, my take:

1. I don't think Kelly had much of a hand in this draft. He may have contributed his opinion on a few players that may have influenced their place on the Niners board, but doubt it had much effect by the end of the day (with the possible exception of the Driskell pick). I doubt he knows what he has with the offense yet, and won't until he has a few games under his belt. And Baalke even less, since a lot will depend on the offense actually executing on Kelly's game plans. We're going to see lots of shuffling during the season as Kelly figures out the optimal combination of players for different situations on the field. And only then will he know who can play and who can't. By the way, same goes for the defense under O'Neil: he doesn't know what he has, either, after the Mangini experiment, which bears little resemblance to his approach.

2. We saw Baalke going after BPA on the Niners board time and again. Need may have influenced some of the picks -- I'm sure the weakness of the OL and DL last season was always lurking in the back of his mind -- but like his choice of Aaron Lynch, on days 2 and 3, he took intriguing players who had slid, or who represented great value at their draft position and happened to coincide with needs.

3. There is no expectation that the team will make the playoffs next year. Clearly, there are several holes that this draft was never going to fill (no way to address all the gaps for starters unless the Niners had been picking 1 or 2 and could rip off desperate rubes who wanted QBs). Although the addition of Buckner should benefit the LBs, they still lack quality at ILB and OLB. The OL should be better, but they still lack a quality center (and Staley isn't getting any younger, so replacing him will be a screaming priority soon). I don't think they have a true #1 receiver yet, and we simply don't know how the corps as a group will fare in a Kelly offense. RB could be a mess. And while I think the QBs will prosper under Kelly, if he plans to their strengths, if the Niners are picking high next year and there's a franchise QB available while they're on the clock, they'll go for him.

Agree in bold