With the draft a little more than 24 hours away, here are some final personal notes before the draft on final evaluations, potential selections, and where I believe the team should head. Thanks to the moderators for indulging me in this post. I will stick with the pinned posts for the rest of my information.
It does appear that the gap between OT's Laremy Tunsil and Ronnie Stanley has closed, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Stanley as the first OT off the board. Stanley played his freshman year at RT while Zach Martin manned the left side, and has played LT the past two years. So, he has experience on both sides. However, his length and pass protection skills better suit him as a LT in the NFL. Tunsil had a similar pass protection grade this past season as Stanley, but is a more proficient run blocker. Stronger, but with more power, he is the better of the two at RT in my opinion. In the end, both may be gone by 7, which would put Jack Conklin in the equation. Conklin is going to go in that 7-15 range, and probably not drop beyond 12. He is a perfect fit for a team that wants to run all over their opponent. He has the nastiest streak of the big 3 OT's this season, but is not as agile as Stanley and Tunsil. Very hard worker.
The Cowboys reportedly have had Jalen Ramsey as their number one player on their board for some time, and I don't think SD is going safety/corner at 3. Buckner appears to be the front runners for SD at 3. The Jags would be a perfect fit for Myles Jack, but his knee appears to be a question mark for many teams because he may have a short shelf life in the NFL. Recent knee injuries to Clowney might scare teams away from Jack (microfracture is a dirty word), which is a shame. He is a remarkable player, as is Jaylon Smith, whose knee injury appears to be even worse. If the Niners are willing to bet on Jack, and willing to forfeit the chance of a long-term career with short-term greatness, then maybe a trade down to 15 with the Titans may make sense.
The Jags have quite a dilemma at five. With an overhauled and upgraded roster, they are becoming one of the more talented teams in the NFL. Although they signed a big contract with Jermey Parnell last year, drafting Tunsil makes a ton of sense at five. I just don't think they will do it. I also think Bosa may be too rich for them at 5, since they drafted a DE in Fowler last year.
The Ravens, at 6, are sitting pretty, because they could use a terrific OT, a stud 34 DE, an edge rusher, or RB help. Their positions of need fit perfectly with this draft. Expect an OT to go here.
The Niners have a tough call at 7. The future of Anthony Davis is a big question mark, and the team may go with the best OT on their board. Or, they could draft Bosa, who is probably best suited as a strongside, traditional 43 DE. However, don't discount Bosa's ability to stand up and play a 34 OLB role. While his combine 40 time was not impressive, his shuttle times, which are a strong gauge of future success for pass rushers, was excellent. He is a very talented, high motor guy. He is notorious for being a party hound, but I believe moving away from college will help alleviate that issue, and having a father who played in the NFL can't hurt either. The biggest question I have for the Niners is the health of Carlos Hyde. If he is not 100%, the team has to seriously take a look at Ezekiel Elliott, who will be the best player on the board when they draft. Teams will make the mistake of selecting need over talent, and if Elliott becomes the next Todd Gurley, then we might regret selecting an OT or OLB over a star, difference-making RB. Elliott is a three down stud, who can run, catch and pass protect. Elusive, strong after contact, and has home run hitting abilities. He is the total package. Tough call for me. If Ramsey is selected by SD, I think the Cowboys stick to their board and pick Elliott at 4. We will see.
In the evaluation of QBs, there are easily two that jump out to me, and then I see a cliff. Wentz and Goff are the stars, and both should have solid careers. I tend to be in the minority on Wentz, who I rank as the fifth best player in this entire draft class. He is smart: aced the Wonderlic with a 40, straight-A student, known for being a film junkie, and according to teammates and some scouts a "genius ". He also has excellent leadership qualities, a guy that guys rally around and want to play for. He is a winner, with his team taking the National Championship the past two years under him. He has a strong arm, and good mobility. He will need some time to adjust, but at the end of the day, the fans in Philly will not be crying about the pile of picks they gave up. And, Browns fans will cry once again for missing on their franchise QB (what is new?). I like the level of competition Goff faced, I think he was the best of the group in throwing the ball when the heat is on in the pocket. Good player. I just don't see him as a big-time leader and winner. I can't believe that teams are sniffing around Cook, Hackenberg and Jones. All of them are a mess in one way or another. Lynch's Wonderlic score of 18 is a big red flag as well, but his play against Temple is a big red flag. He is years away.
Mark these players down for guys that I believe I would select when the team is on the clock. In the first, there are too many variables. Best case scenario for me: Buckner. In the second, I project Sterling Shepard as my pick. It would be deemed a reach at this point by some, but the guy will produce immediately in the slot, and in punt returns. He is this year's version of Tyler Lockett, who as we learned can play the game. In the third, I have a toss-up between CB KeiVarae Russell of Notre Dame, DE Bronson Kaufusi of BYU, Leonte Carroo of Rutgers, Nick Martin of Notre Dame. Just depends who is still on the board.
I monitor daily the legal status of Tyler Higbee, who is my second highest graded TE, but right now is third on my TE board (after Jerell Adams). A lot of conflicting signals on who was to blame for the beat down, and what might happen to him…right before the draft. Not good timing.
I think the draft has a lot of quality ILBs in the mid-rounds, guys who can come in and start sometime in their first year. Stanford's Martinez, WV's Kwiatkoski, Clemson's Goodson, Utah State's Vigil can play this game, and many of these guys are athletic enough to be three-down players.
I think it is a shame the team has drafted safety heavily the past few years. Baalke's specialty is the secondary, and he has done pretty well with these selections. However, I would love for the team to somehow gain access to Karl Joseph. I think he has special written all over him.
Some third day 34 DE's to strongly consider: Dean Lowry of Northwestern and Adam Gotsis of Georgia Tech. Lowry has alligator arms, but the guy makes a ton of plays. Gotsis is currently injured, but is a hyperactive consistent playmaker. Really like this pair.
If the Niners are looking to fill the RT position with a starting quality player, they better get them early, because the draft is severely lacking after the first couple rounds. Very little depth. A bunch of guys with some significant holes in their game.
The draft is full of move TE's, who can go downfield and make plays. And, they don't need to be drafted early. Stephen Anderson of Cal and Davon Cajuste of Stanford are guys who can stretch the field. Just don't expect them to block much. On the flip side, David Morgan of UT-San Antonio looks like he is running in quicksand on the field, but the dude can seriously block.
This is a pretty deep center class for those who are looking to upgrade at the position, especially with players transitioning from LT. The best of the group who played center last year is Ryan Kelly of Alabama, Nick Martin of Notre Dame, Graham Glascow of Michigan, Max Tuerk of USC, Jack Allen of Michigan St, Evan Boehm of Missouri, Kyle Friend of Temple and a former student of mine, Matt Skura of Duke. All of these guys have a solid shot at starting in the NFL at some point. But, then you add in the transitional LTs and LGs, such as Cody Whitehair, Isaac Seumalo, Christian Westerman, Connor McGovern, and Joe Thuney, and you have a very deep class. The question is who emerges to become starters in this league.
There are always players who baffle me where I should put them in the draft and on my board. Mississippi St. DT Chris Jones is a top 15 talent in this draft, and at times is virtually unstoppable. But, at other times, he is lazy, sloppy, undisciplined. So, how do you give a final grade to a guy who looks like a first rounder on one play and an undrafted free agent the next. Inconsistent motor. In a strong draft class, I have to move him down. Being a knucklehead (the wardrobe malfunction at the combine perfectly matched him) in college is one thing, but you better come ready to play in the NFL. If you don't work hard, this league, you will be out of it sooner rather than later. Robert Nkemdiche is all-world talent, but in many ways is like Jones. Great flashes, like against Alabama, but then disappears in games. And, from all accounts, the kid is just flat out bizarre. I don't trust him, thus a severe downgrade. It is impossible to know where to put Jaylon Smith and Myles Jack. I am not a medical expert, nor have xrays of their injuries, but both appear to be bad news. In a solid draft, you have to move them down the boards, especially if the injury looks to impair their performance long-term. I wish both guys the best. Both are top-3 players minus injury.
Finally, I am higher than most on this WR class. Count me in for Josh Doctson being the best WR in this draft. He was the best in college football this season before injury, and then had a tremendous combine. Good kid, great maturity, stable home. Great hands, and elite catch radius. I like the footwork and explosiveness of Corey Coleman. So hard to contain. Will need to learn how to block. But, a TD scoring machine. Some will call me crazy, but I have Sterling Shepard as my number 3 WR, which matches his uniform. The kid is a terror out of the slot, was super productive in college, was named by scouts as the best WR of Senior Bowl week, had a great combine, and very good Pro Day. He is just a professional, like Lockett, and I see no reason why that will change in the NFL. He checks all the boxes. Michael Thomas and Laquon Treadwell are similarly graded for me, with close height/weight measurables. I just see Thomas as more explosive. Will Fuller is the deep threat playmaker who bailed Notre Dame out of numerous games. However, I am a bit skeptical that he will be able to do what he did as effectively in the NFL. The depth in the second day is strong, with developmental guys like Braxton Miller, highly productive college stars like Tyler Boyd, Keyarris Garrett, Leonte Carroo, and more. Even in the third day, slot WR prospects like Daniel Braverman and Pharoh Cooper, and under the radar prospects like Michael Thomas of Southern Mississippi, Cody Core of Mississippi and Jay Lee of Baylor are all over the place. It is a very deep group.
It is always fun looking back in time to see the hits and misses of the past. Here is one that I just stumbled on a minute ago when previewing the 2012 NFL Draft:
"Second round:
The team needs WR help for sure, but also may need a starting CB, an interior lineman to compete and eventually replace Goodwin and/or Snyder, a free safety if Goldson walks, and depth along the DL. Here are some prospects to consider:
1) At corner, the league is really enamored with taller CB's matching up with increasingly taller WR's. This draft is filled with quick CB's who are in the 5'10" range. One exception that may end up pushing for a second round pick is Coastal Carolina's Josh Norman. We all know that he was probably the best looking player during the East-West Shrine week, and held his own during the Senior Bowl. At a legit 6', there is the size and length and smoothness to match up with the Larry Fitzgerald's, Mike Williams', Justin Blackmon's of the NFC West"
Funny that Blackmon did not end up with the Rams, as I predicted, and that Norman ended up a 5th rounder, but turned out to be a pretty good player.
There is so much more to write, but time is limited. I am looking forward to draft weekend with all of you. We may not all agree, but who does in this highly inexact science. Hence, the fun. Will do my best to juggle daddy responsibilities and still have some time for the board. Will post final 253 board, Best 100 board, and top rated at each position. So much to do, so little time. Cheers.
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MadDog49er Draft Notes
Apr 27, 2016 at 12:09 PM
- MadDog49er
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Apr 27, 2016 at 12:35 PM
- zonkers
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Great stuff. Thanks MD.
I'd love to see Shepard run wild under Chip.
I'd love to see Shepard run wild under Chip.
Apr 27, 2016 at 12:39 PM
- LasVegasWally
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Thanks!!
Apr 27, 2016 at 12:42 PM
- YungAce
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MD loves him Ohio State RBs!
Thanks for the offseason work once again man.
Thanks for the offseason work once again man.
Apr 27, 2016 at 12:51 PM
- LottOfDefense
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Thanks for all your hard work
Apr 27, 2016 at 1:24 PM
- GoreGoreGore
- 10HourChicken
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Good post.
As far as Bosa goes, I doubt he stops partying. If anything, he will do it even more now.
Shepard, he is a reach, and he's a slot guy. Kelly like's his slot WRs to be big, not small.
As far as Bosa goes, I doubt he stops partying. If anything, he will do it even more now.
Shepard, he is a reach, and he's a slot guy. Kelly like's his slot WRs to be big, not small.
Apr 27, 2016 at 1:32 PM
- Joecool
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Originally posted by TheHYDE49er:
Good post.
As far as Bosa goes, I doubt he stops partying. If anything, he will do it even more now.
Shepard, he is a reach, and he's a slot guy. Kelly like's his slot WRs to be big, not small.
Not worried about partying as long as he's a fun partier rather than a crazy partier. Fun equals just getting drunk and enjoying it.
Fun = Gronk
Crazy = Ray McDonald
Apr 27, 2016 at 1:32 PM
- NCommand
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:
In the evaluation of QBs, there are easily two that jump out to me, and then I see a cliff. Wentz and Goff are the stars, and both should have solid careers. I tend to be in the minority on Wentz, who I rank as the fifth best player in this entire draft class. He is smart: aced the Wonderlic with a 40, straight-A student, known for being a film junkie, and according to teammates and some scouts a "genius ". He also has excellent leadership qualities, a guy that guys rally around and want to play for. He is a winner, with his team taking the National Championship the past two years under him. He has a strong arm, and good mobility. He will need some time to adjust, but at the end of the day, the fans in Philly will not be crying about the pile of picks they gave up. And, Browns fans will cry once again for missing on their franchise QB (what is new?). I like the level of competition Goff faced, I think he was the best of the group in throwing the ball when the heat is on in the pocket. Good player. I just don't see him as a big-time leader and winner. I can't believe that teams are sniffing around Cook, Hackenberg and Jones. All of them are a mess in one way or another. Lynch's Wonderlic score of 18 is a big red flag as well, but his play against Temple is a big red flag. He is years away.
Creepy, so Wentz is Alex Smith and Goff will be Rodgers. j/k
Apr 27, 2016 at 1:33 PM
- Joecool
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Originally posted by NCommand:
Creepy, so Wentz is Alex Smith and Goff will be Rodgers. j/k
Heard Goff is money in the red zone.
Apr 27, 2016 at 2:09 PM
- MadDog49er
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Originally posted by NCommand:
Creepy, so Wentz is Alex Smith and Goff will be Rodgers. j/k
Haha!
Apr 27, 2016 at 2:58 PM
- floridaMan
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Good stuff!
I don't post in here much, but I always appreciate the time and effort you put into these leading up to draft day. It makes draft day that much more enjoyable.
I don't post in here much, but I always appreciate the time and effort you put into these leading up to draft day. It makes draft day that much more enjoyable.
Apr 27, 2016 at 3:17 PM
- 49ERGLENN
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Pat Kirwin and Jim Miller at SIRIUS NFL Radio having us taking Paxton Lynch at 7? Any thoughts anyone?
[ Edited by 49ERGLENN on Apr 27, 2016 at 3:17 PM ]
Apr 27, 2016 at 3:18 PM
- Hoovtrain
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Originally posted by 49ERGLENN:Pat Kirwin and Jim Miller at SIRIUS NFL Radio having us taking Paxton Lynch at 7? Any thoughts anyone?
I will have a b***h fit of epic proportions
Apr 27, 2016 at 3:29 PM
- Joecool
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Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
Originally posted by 49ERGLENN:
Pat Kirwin and Jim Miller at SIRIUS NFL Radio having us taking Paxton Lynch at 7? Any thoughts anyone?
I will have a b***h fit of epic proportions
I would say our 2nd pick would be the head scratcher. In our history in the past 5 or so years, seems like the 2nd rounder has been the coach's pick at times.
Apr 27, 2016 at 3:33 PM
- Phoenix49ers
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Originally posted by 49ERGLENN:Pat Kirwin and Jim Miller at SIRIUS NFL Radio having us taking Paxton Lynch at 7? Any thoughts anyone?