Late round picks fuel team's success

(Steelers based but some good info)

Late-round NFL draft picks fuel teams' success
By Chris Adamski
Wednesday, April 29, 2015, 10:06 p.m.

When it comes to the NFL Draft, Thursday will get most of the attention, headlines and TV viewers.

But when it comes to building a successful team, is the draft's first night that much more important than the two days that follow?

A team's first- and second-round draft choices deservedly will receive the bulk of the financial commitment and opportunities to make an impact on an NFL roster.

That doesn't mean, however, that acquiring impact talent in the mid-to-late-rounds isn't essential in building a championship-caliber team.

"There are good players throughout the draft," Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert said. "Every year there are guys that are available, not only in the first round but the second round through the seventh, and even into free agency.

"Time has proven that. ... So it's our job to try to stack them and find them and coach them and develop them, and we hope they turn into great players."

A Trib Total Media analysis of 10 Steelers drafts from 2003-12 (allowing a minimum of three seasons for a player to show his worth) demonstrated what should be intuitive but nonetheless is enlightening: While the organization was more likely to snag a star player in the first two rounds and its "hit-miss" rate was better, players taken in rounds 3-7 accounted for almost as many starts and 50 percent more NFL games played in the years that followed.

"I used to tell the scouts our goal is to get a starter in every round," said NFL Network's Charley Casserly, who spent 18 years as an NFL general manager. "It's not realistic — I didn't tell them that. But that's what your goal is.

"You've got to be consistent in the first couple of rounds. Anything you get after that is a bonus, but that doesn't mean you don't work at it and don't try hard."

By simple math, it's virtually impossible — even when accounting for possible acquisitions of high draft picks or veterans who were formerly high draft picks — to field a team of just first- and second-round picks.

It also stands to reason that even with the inexact nature of scouting, players taken early in the draft are much more likely to perform at a high level than those taken later on. For all the so-called "busts" out there, the rate of success for first- and second-round picks dwarfs that for prospects who were drafted in rounds 6-7.

However, the sheer quantity of extra picks suggests that a team's chances of getting an impact player in rounds 3-7 (accounting for the compensatory picks, of which there are 30 this season — all of them from the third round on) only needs to be about 33 percent of the success rate in rounds 1-2.

It shows. The Steelers, for example, drafted players over the first two rounds from 2003-12 that have thus far appeared in 1,476 games, made 1,123 starts and had 19 Pro Bowl selections.

Players the Steelers took in rounds three through seven over that span have made 2,126 appearances, 1,067 starts and five Pro Bowl berths.

Casserly did his own quantitative analysis. Covering 10 years, he examined how many players from each round became a starter after four NFL seasons.

"Historically, the first round is 75 percent, the second round is 50 percent, the third is 30 percent, the fourth is 25 percent and the sixth and seventh are 9 percent," Casserly said. "So the point is you have a better percentage chance of being successful early ... so that's where you need to be consistent — and consistently good."

Twelve of the 22 starters on the division champion 2014 Steelers were first- or second-round picks. Still that's roughly half who were taken in Round 3 or later — or not drafted at all.

Among players the Steelers drafted between 2008-12, there are more Pro Bowl appearances from those selected after the second round (five) than in the first two rounds (four).

Colbert said the Steelers split draft prospects into three groups: Those they project in early rounds, those who have late-round grades and those who are viewed as undrafted free agents.

"The preparation time is almost equal," Colbert said.

The Steelers' most recent two Super Bowl-winning teams featured as many (2005) or more (2008) starters who were taken in rounds 3-7 than in rounds 1-2. Account for undrafted players, and that ratio tilts even more away from those early picks.

"The odds are against you to get players in those later rounds; that's why it's hard to do," Casserly said. "The teams that do, they're the ones that win."

Chris Adamski is a staff writer for Trib Total Media. Reach him at [email protected] or via Twitter @C_AdamskiTrib.

Early or late?

While the rate of success in acquiring starters and star-level players has been higher for the Steelers in the first two rounds, the likelihood of getting a starter is roughly even when comparing the entirety of the group of first- and second-round picks to third through seventh rounders. In recent years, the Steelers have had even more success in the late rounds. Steelers draftees from 2003-12 in selected rounds:

Rounds Players Games played Starts Pro Bowls

1st-2nd 18 1,476 1,123 19

3rd-7th 62 2,126 1,067 5

Steelers draftees from 2008-12 in selected rounds:

Rounds Players Games played Starts Pro Bowls

1st-2nd 9 510 347 4

3rd-7th 33 1,086 472 5

Better than never

In an illustration of how players from all rounds can make an impact for championship-level teams, last season's Steelers featured more starters taken in the early rounds of the draft than either of the two conference champions or than its own two most recent Super Bowl winners:

Team Starters drafted

1st/2nd rounds 3rd-7th Undrafted

2014 Steelers 12 8 2

*2014 Patriots 10 9 3

**-2014 Seahawks 9 9 4

*2008 Steelers 8 10 4

*2005 Steelers 10 10 2

*-Won Super Bowl

**-Conference champion, won prior Super Bowl

Trib Total Media research via information provided by NFL.com and pro-football-reference.com. Note: Players' appearances and starts include those for all NFL teams, not merely the team that drafted them.

http://triblive.com/mobile/8188755-96/rounds-steelers-players