Predict Niners 2016 Draft Strategy

Baalke has maintained some stereotypes through the last several years:
-acquire as many picks as possible, to include valuing compensatory picks
-trade up if he likes a player
-long arms are better
-take risks on college stars who were injured, possibly due to all of those picks


However, this year is a bit unique. Baalke is essentially fighting for his job. This is year 2 after the mass migration of previous All Pro talent. And for the 3rd year in a row, they have a new HC.
The obvious difference is that Chip has a very specific scheme that some offensive players may not fit.

Considering the Niners needs, what are the strongest positions in this years draft? Dline and WR seem to have some depth, but 3-4 OLB seems pretty shallow.

And finally, another HUGE X-factor this year will be FA. Historically, it seems that Baalke prefers to fill needs in FA so he can focus on BPA in the draft.

Considering these and other factors I may have missed, what are your predictions for Baalkes draft strategy this year?

Some questions to consider:
-How many rookies SHOULD make this team?
-What are the positions of strength in this draft?
-How agressive can Baalke be in trading up/down throughout all 7 rounds?
-What positions will Baalke target in FA?
-How will that impact the draft strategy?

I really hope Baalke doesn't end up drafting 12 rookies.

I think the #7 spot is really interesting. This draft seems pretty deep from 7 to 15 (ish). I think Baalke could trade back once or even twice and still land a star player. Then with those later picks, he could agressively trade up to stock pile additional picks in rounds 2-4.

I think that he always goes BPA. We had no need for a S but he drafted Tartt anyway and he did the same thing with Carradine. If he really likes one player he would try to trade up(look at the Reid trade). I think he will try to get Bruce Irvin in the FA because he wanted him in the draft. I think about 6 or 7 players will make the team and 2 or 3 will go to PS or IR.

I expect them to go defense with the 1st pick, then BPA after.

If Baalke really is on the hot seat I'd imagine you'll see him drafting more for immediate impact than in previous drafts.

I seriously doubt that Baalke will trade up in the first rd but I could easily see him going from the 7th pick down a few spots. If he stays at the 7th I think he will go with a lineman.. either Stanley on the OL or Buckner on the DL if they are there. I do not think they will take a QB with the 7th pick unless Goff falls to them.

If he trades down to get another 2nd rounder I could see him using that additional pick to move back into the end of the first round to select someone like Carson Wentz.

BPA
Reach
Arms length
Height
ACL
DBs in later rounds

Nothing changes because the needs are what they are. Baalke has a list of things he's looking for in players and, if reports are to be believed, they actually line up more closely with Kelly than most people think.

It's a wait-and-see approach here because free agency hasn't started yet nor the Kaepernick situation resolved. If we assume Kaepernick is back and we land another receiver in FA then my top 3 for the 7 pick would include Buckner, A'Shawn Robinson and Myles Jack.

Originally posted by joaosoarrs99:
I think that he always goes BPA. We had no need for a S but he drafted Tartt anyway and he did the same thing with Carradine. If he really likes one player he would try to trade up(look at the Reid trade). I think he will try to get Bruce Irvin in the FA because he wanted him in the draft. I think about 6 or 7 players will make the team and 2 or 3 will go to PS or IR.

That would be good to get Irvin if we don't over pay, strengthen D and weaken the opposition. Though it won't happen, wouldn't mind getting Von Miller.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
I seriously doubt that Baalke will trade up in the first rd but I could easily see him going from the 7th pick down a few spots. If he stays at the 7th I think he will go with a lineman.. either Stanley on the OL or Buckner on the DL if they are there. I do not think they will take a QB with the 7th pick unless Goff falls to them.

If he trades down to get another 2nd rounder I could see him using that additional pick to move back into the end of the first round to select someone like Carson Wentz.

If trade down, I see maybe Treadwell if he is there, if they stay put and they are still there, then as you said Stanley or Buckner. Then a QB in the second, but may not need to move up. I read that in the 2nd 4th and 6th rounds, they get the 5th pick (or was it the 4th?) pick of the rounds. They could move back into the 2nd round though for a second 2nd round rounder. The only good thing about moving back into the 1st round is you get dibs on the player for 5 years rather 4 years I believe.

Draft Nkemdiche at 7. Seriously. He may end up being the best DT in the business.

Originally posted by bzborow1:
Nothing changes because the needs are what they are. Baalke has a list of things he's looking for in players and, if reports are to be believed, they actually line up more closely with Kelly than most people think.

On defense and some offensive positions I would agree but I don't think that's the case on the o-line.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
I seriously doubt that Baalke will trade up in the first rd but I could easily see him going from the 7th pick down a few spots. If he stays at the 7th I think he will go with a lineman.. either Stanley on the OL or Buckner on the DL if they are there. I do not think they will take a QB with the 7th pick unless Goff falls to them.

If he trades down to get another 2nd rounder I could see him using that additional pick to move back into the end of the first round to select someone like Carson Wentz.

Come April, I wouldn't be shocked if Wentz was considered every bit the prospect that Goff is (though CLE is still likely to go with JG). Worse case IMO Wentz goes to the LA Rams at #15 if we pass on him at #7 so if they are looking for a trade back into the late 1st for a QB, Lynch might be the best option.

In fact, Daniel Jeremiah has Wentz going to Dallas at #4 (), so if BaalKelly want a young, dynamic, top-ranked QB they may be forced to go with Lynch at #7.

Originally posted by DaleGribble:

If Baalke really is on the hot seat I'd imagine you'll see him drafting more for immediate impact than in previous drafts.

We got 12 picks not all are making the team trade up for the best players this guy needs to be aggressive in this draft

At 7 I think they wait to see which BPA slips to them and take calls on trading down. Thinking of the Julio Jones draft

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
I seriously doubt that Baalke will trade up in the first rd but I could easily see him going from the 7th pick down a few spots. If he stays at the 7th I think he will go with a lineman.. either Stanley on the OL or Buckner on the DL if they are there. I do not think they will take a QB with the 7th pick unless Goff falls to them.

If he trades down to get another 2nd rounder I could see him using that additional pick to move back into the end of the first round to select someone like Carson Wentz.

Come April, I wouldn't be shocked if Wentz was considered every bit the prospect that Goff is (though CLE is still likely to go with JG). Worse case IMO Wentz goes to the LA Rams at #15 if we pass on him at #7 so if they are looking for a trade back into the late 1st for a QB, Lynch might be the best option.

In fact, Daniel Jeremiah has Wentz going to Dallas at #4 (), so if BaalKelly want a young, dynamic, top-ranked QB they may be forced to go with Lynch at #7.

Obviously Kaep's situation is going to dictate what they do at QB in the first but I would pass on Lynch at #7 for sure. Now, if they can trade back into the bottom of round 1 and grab him - great.