MadDog49er 2016 NFL Draft Early QB Analysis and Projection

Greetings, all!

With so much interest around the status of our QB situation next year, here is what I have seen in an early analysis of the four major QB's projected to go early in this draft: Cal's Jared Goff; Memphis' QB Paxton Lynch; Michigan State QB Connor Cook; ND State's Carson Wentz.

Arm Strength- All four QB's have NFL-caliber arms. Each can make every throw on the field (deep post, deep corner route, 9 route, 15 yard outs, etc). Tight spirals for each of these guys on intermediate to deep throws except for Cook.Strongest arm to weakest in my estimation: Lynch, Goff, Wentz, Cook. Lynch and Wentz need to tighten up their delivery. Both wind up a bit, which causes lost time in releasing the ball.

Accuracy- All of the QBs have similar accuracy strengths and weaknesses. Goff can be pinpoint accurate one moment, then sling the ball four yards out of bounds in the next toss. Very erratic on sideline throws. At the same time, he excels in 3rd down situations, and is a stud when teams bring 5 or more rushers. Lynch had the cleanest pocket of any of the four passers, and threw the ball exceptionally well in these situations. However, he is not as strong as Goff when the heat is on, and how often do QBs have clean pockets in the NFL? The game against Temple is a red-flag for sure. Cook may be the most accurate of the group, but even he can be erratic at times. Some of his throws, especially against Michigan, were head scratchers. Wentz, shockingly, may be the most accurate of the group, especially outside the pocket. He is one of the best roll-left, throw down the field QB's in the last 10 drafts. Summary- No Drew Brees in this group, for sure.

Mobility- A very easy group to analyze. Lynch has the best mobility, and would be a great choice for a team with a leaky OL. He is going to rack up a lot of rushing yards in the first years of his NFL career. Wentz comes in second place. Runs well, and has excellent knowledge of where the first down marker is located. Goff is not the best athlete of the group, but he is uncanny at avoiding sacks, and has outstanding pocket awareness. Cook is not a sitting target, but cannot run down the field as well as Lynch and Wentz. Just not the same athlete. Solid group to work with.

Leadership/Intangibles- A very hard category to fully know, until they put on an NFL jersey. And, very controversial to make a judgment, but I will attempt anyways. Cook is criticized for not being a team captain. Not sure how the selection works in selecting the MSU captains. but he is clearly the leader of this team, and the team rallies behind him in big games. He is a winner, and plays well in big games. At the same time, he appears on the surface to be a bit of an oddball, ala Jay Cutler. Goff has helped Cal go from 1 win in his freshman team to 5 last year and 7 this year. Still, I just don't know if he has that "it" factor, to lift a team on his shoulders and carry them. Call me a skeptic on that one. His road play this year was dramatically worse than at home. Lynch started his career on a bad Memphis team, and has helped them to 10 wins last year, and conference title, and probably 10 this year. He also has seven come-from-behind wins this year when the team was 10 points or more behind. Impressive stat for sure. The team rallies around the guy. Wentz won the National Championship last season, and had a couple dramatic, last minute victories. He has the look of one of those guys who, if he has the ball last, his team is going to win.

NFL-ready: I think pretty easy to identify. Cook is ready to play right now, and will be a starter at some point in 2016 (my guess is second half of next year). The MSU offense is a pro-style, and Cook is under the center nearly all the time, unlike the three other QBs. Goff will start next year, maybe on game one, maybe mid-season. He is going to play a LOT. Needs time to get settled under the center. Lynch comes third in this group. Tons of athleticism, but needs to handle pressure better, and have the game slow down for him. Wentz is a guy holding a clipboard for at least one year, maybe two. The leap in competition is too great, and he has to learn how to play under the center as well.

Summary- Each team has to figure out what they value. If they are a team that is vet-heavy and want to win NOW, before their window closes, Cook is their guy. If they want the surest thing, I'd go with Goff. Great pocket awareness, super when blitzes are thrown against him, excellent in 3rd down conversion. Lynch is the guy if you want the highest ceiling. Best live arm, best mobility, winner, team leader. Just need to be patient with him. Wentz is a guy who I think can transition well, but a team needs to think long term. A team like the Saints, who have another good couple years with Brees, would be great for him.

In the end, if I am the Niners, I am picking Goff or Lynch from this group (at number 5, if on the board). I think Goff will be a top 15 QB in this league, with a skill set like Joe Flacco (minus the enormous arm), and Lynch like a young Donovan McNabb. Goff is the more reliable of the two, but if you are reaching for the fence, Lynch is your man.

Notes: Posting done before the Cal-Air Force game. Early projection and analysis is an.... early projection and analysis. Very early in the process, and bowl game/post season stuff impacts final analysis.

More posts later on these subjects:
Best position group in the draft- OL
Worst position group in the draft- TE
Most overrated player in the draft- Laremy Tunsil, Mississippi
Safest player in the draft- Jaylon Smith, Notre Dame
Best OT- Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame
Best Small School Sleeper- David Morgan II, Texas San Antonio
Best value DL- Matt Ioannidis, Temple
Best value OL- Nila Kasitati, Oklahoma
"Can't believe I didn't draft him"- Braxton Miller, Ohio State

yes it has begun

Great read. I would lean to Goff just because he seems like more of the sure bet than the guy with a huge upside (like a Alex vs Aaron debate - kind of). I'd rather a guy who is calm, cool, collected, and can pinpoint 20 yard throws than a guy who MIGHT be the next McNabb in his prime.

"Wentz is a guy holding a clipboard for at least one year, maybe two. The leap in competition is too great, and he has to learn how to play under the center as well. "

He has played under center more than anyone other than Cook in NDSU's hybrid sort of offense. I agree that he's going to need extra time to develop, partially due to the variation in level of competition, partially due to the need for improved footwork and developing more patience in the pocket where at times he'll lock on to a single receiver if he senses pressure.






Something else that I would look at is how Cook and Wentz might respond to not playing behind dominant OL's. NDSU has been a powerhouse for a few years with some very good lines. Cook has also has some pretty good OL's that he's played behind, they've usually had plenty of time in the pocket to throw the football, both have had some trouble when they have been pressured.

Great post dude. The only part I disagree is the most overrated player because every Tunsil games I watched he excelled and I didn't saw major flaws.

Originally posted by joaosoarrs99:

Great post dude. The only part I disagree is the most overrated player because every Tunsil games I watched he excelled and I didn't saw major flaws.

Ditto to this post. The biggest things which could push Stanley ahead of Tunsil in my opinion are length (Stanley looks like he may have longer arms) and Tunsil's injury history. They are both really good athletes for their size, but Tunsil appears to play with more power in the run game and holds up better against bull rushes.

I'd be interested to hear why you rate Stanley higher and considers Tunsil overrated.

Originally posted by joaosoarrs99:
Great post dude. The only part I disagree is the most overrated player because every Tunsil games I watched he excelled and I didn't saw major flaws.

Tunsil is a very good run blocking LT, but was shaky in a number of games I watched this year in pass protection, compared to Stanley and Spriggs (these guys are so technically sound in pass protection that they almost looked bored). I see a lot more pocket collapses under Tunsil, so for a guy listed by many to go top 3, that is poor value in my estimation.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Ditto to this post. The biggest things which could push Stanley ahead of Tunsil in my opinion are length (Stanley looks like he may have longer arms) and Tunsil's injury history. They are both really good athletes for their size, but Tunsil appears to play with more power in the run game and holds up better against bull rushes.

I'd be interested to hear why you rate Stanley higher and considers Tunsil overrated.

I love watching OL, and really enjoyed watching Stanley, Spriggs, Tunsil this week. Focusing intense game watching on OSU's Decker, who I am not as high as many, and interior OL. To me, Stanley is the most well-rounded OT in this draft (run and pass blocking). Conklin reminds me a bit of Scherff, who I watched a ton last year and stated there was no way he was going to play OT in the NFL. I think he best projects as a stud RT, who is tough, nasty, and loves to hit. Spriggs is the most technically sound pass-blocking LT, but needs to get some fire in the belly when it comes to run blocking.

I am jumping the gun on my OL post. Sorry

Great read thanks for the analysis.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

"Wentz is a guy holding a clipboard for at least one year, maybe two. The leap in competition is too great, and he has to learn how to play under the center as well. "

He has played under center more than anyone other than Cook in NDSU's hybrid sort of offense. I agree that he's going to need extra time to develop, partially due to the variation in level of competition, partially due to the need for improved footwork and developing more patience in the pocket where at times he'll lock on to a single receiver if he senses pressure.






Something else that I would look at is how Cook and Wentz might respond to not playing behind dominant OL's. NDSU has been a powerhouse for a few years with some very good lines. Cook has also has some pretty good OL's that he's played behind, they've usually had plenty of time in the pocket to throw the football, both have had some trouble when they have been pressured.

Wentz surely was the second guy for snaps under the center. I think he goes, from my memory, about 60-40, maybe 63-35. Saw him play about 7 games this year. Really impressive against smaller school competition.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by joaosoarrs99:

Great post dude. The only part I disagree is the most overrated player because every Tunsil games I watched he excelled and I didn't saw major flaws.

Tunsil is a very good run blocking LT, but was shaky in a number of games I watched this year in pass protection, compared to Stanley and Spriggs (these guys are so technically sound in pass protection that they almost looked bored). I see a lot more pocket collapses under Tunsil, so for a guy listed by many to go top 3, that is poor value in my estimation.

I thought I remember seeing Carl Lawson give him problems in their matchup this year.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

I love watching OL, and really enjoyed watching Stanley, Spriggs, Tunsil this week. Focusing intense game watching on OSU's Decker, who I am not as high as many, and interior OL. To me, Stanley is the most well-rounded OT in this draft (run and pass blocking). Conklin reminds me a bit of Scherff, who I watched a ton last year and stated there was no way he was going to play OT in the NFL. I think he best projects as a stud RT, who is tough, nasty, and loves to hit. Spriggs is the most technically sound pass-blocking LT, but needs to get some fire in the belly when it comes to run blocking.

I am jumping the gun on my OL post. Sorry

Thanks! I'll have to watch more Ole Miss games to compare them, but I do like Stanley as well. Looking forward to the OL post.

Originally posted by jimrat:
I thought I remember seeing Carl Lawson give him problems in their matchup this year.

That game exposed some issues. Hopefully, Ogbah lines up against him a lot on New Year's Day. Good matchup.

The same goes for Bosa vs. Stanley in the OSU-ND game. However, both Ogbah and Bosa generally match up at LDE, against the RT.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by jimrat:

I thought I remember seeing Carl Lawson give him problems in their matchup this year.

That game exposed some issues. Hopefully, Ogbah lines up against him a lot on New Year's Day. Good matchup.

Can't wait for that one

Braxton Miller - as a WR or as a QB?