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Reality check: QB's in round 1 & 2

Dec 28, 2015 at 3:03 PM
Originally posted by GreatGabbert:
Romo was a free agent, Fitzpatrick was a late 7th round pick, they've had better careers than 95% of first or second rounders.

1. show me these numbers to back up this wild assertion and
2. yes, let's make policy based on outliers. brilliant
Dec 28, 2015 at 3:24 PM
Originally posted by GrumpyDad:
1. show me these numbers to back up this wild assertion and
2. yes, let's make policy based on outliers. brilliant

This. People like to point to the exceptions and not the rule.
Dec 28, 2015 at 3:27 PM
Originally posted by GreatGabbert:
Romo was a free agent, Fitzpatrick was a late 7th round pick, they've had better careers than 95% of first or second rounders.

The history of 7th round QB's from 1994-2013.




7th Round

The word "good" here starts to become very loosely applied.


The Good

Matt Cassel
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Flynn
Tim Rattay
Koy Detmer
Gus Frerotte


The Bad
Casey Bramlet
Glenn Foley
Zac Dysert
D.J. Shockley
Tony Graziani
Chandler Harnish
James Kilian
Ken Dorsey
Brad Sorensen
Jeff Kelly
Matt Mauck
John Walsh
Moses Moreno
Jon Stark
Jarious Jackson
Kyle Wachholtz
Greg McElroy
Ronnie McAda
Gibran Hamdan
Sean Canfield
Chris Greisen
Seth Burford
John Navarre
Tony Corbin
Levi Brown
Wes Pate
Bradlee Van Pelt
Zac Robinson
Scott Covington
Jay Walker
Cody Pickett
Steve Matthews
Wally Richardson
Michael Bishop
Joe Hamilton
Tyler Thigpen
Alex Brink


The BJ's

BJ Coleman
BJ Daniels
BJ Symons
Dec 28, 2015 at 3:34 PM
Originally posted by GrumpyDad:
Originally posted by GreatGabbert:
Romo was a free agent, Fitzpatrick was a late 7th round pick, they've had better careers than 95% of first or second rounders.

1. show me these numbers to back up this wild assertion and
2. yes, let's make policy based on outliers. brilliant

This. Marques Colston also made a damn fine career as a 7th round pick. Maybe that's where we should find our receiver too....
Dec 28, 2015 at 3:39 PM
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
This. Marques Colston also made a damn fine career as a 7th round pick. Maybe that's where we should find our receiver too....

Richard Dent was an 8th round pick, no need to waste early picks on pass-rushers.
Dec 28, 2015 at 4:06 PM
The smart choice would be to move back to 10 pick up extra picks and draft either Jaylon Smith or Myles Jack. Build our defense. We can restructure Kap and keep him at least 1 more year. We need impact players in the early rounds. Build the core because if we get a qb with this OL he's just gonna faulter and not develop. .. build it up build it up... remember when we got Alex Smith in the beginning of a rebuild .. compared to how he played when it was built...
Dec 28, 2015 at 4:10 PM
I like how you don't include 2004

Eli
Rivers
Big Ben

They turned out pretty good.

It's harder to find a franchise QB later in the draft. It's just probability.
[ Edited by DonnieDarko on Dec 28, 2015 at 4:12 PM ]
Dec 28, 2015 at 4:14 PM
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
I like how you don't include 2004

Eli
Rivers
Big Ben

They turned out pretty good.

It's harder to find a franchise QB later in the draft. It's just probability.

Or 2005: Alex and Aaron still starting; both headed to the playoffs.
Dec 28, 2015 at 4:18 PM
Draft bpa in 1st round pick 5, then trade back into the late 1st and snatch the best QB available. (See Minnesota 2014).
Dec 28, 2015 at 4:20 PM
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
I like how you don't include 2004

Eli
Rivers
Big Ben

They turned out pretty good.

It's harder to find a franchise QB later in the draft. It's just probability.

Or 2005: Alex and Aaron still starting; both headed to the playoffs.

Exactly.

I think the way to approach it is like what Washington did in '12. Go ahead and take your highest rated qb early and then take another qb in the later rounds as insurance.

Dec 28, 2015 at 4:21 PM
Originally posted by GrumpyDad:
1. show me these numbers to back up this wild assertion and
2. yes, let's make policy based on outliers. brilliant


No one mentioned them, Grumpy, is why I did. Take a pill.
Dec 28, 2015 at 4:23 PM
Originally posted by BigBug415:
Draft bpa in 1st round pick 5, then trade back into the late 1st and snatch the best QB available. (See Minnesota 2014).

QB could be the BPA at 5. If Tunsil is there at 5, I'd definitely consider that and then desperately try to trade up for Goff/Lynch if they drop to mid-first. I'm not sure that QB won't be the BPA at 5 though.
Dec 28, 2015 at 4:25 PM
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
This. Marques Colston also made a damn fine career as a 7th round pick. Maybe that's where we should find our receiver too....


That's the point, Einstein, if you use the top pick on a QB, when it's one of the strongest, deepest, positions on the roster, you pass up premium prospects at another position. Quarterback is far from the greatest need on the team, matter of fact I'd say it's the least need.
Dec 28, 2015 at 4:26 PM
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
I like how you don't include 2004

Eli
Rivers
Big Ben

They turned out pretty good.

It's harder to find a franchise QB later in the draft. It's just probability.

Or 2005: Alex and Aaron still starting; both headed to the playoffs.

Exactly.

I think the way to approach it is like what Washington did in '12. Go ahead and take your highest rated qb early and then take another qb in the later rounds as insurance.

Not a bad idea, but I don't feel good about the late QBs in this draft. Right now, I'd be comfortable with Blaine Gabbert and Goff/Lynch as our QBs going into 2016. Washington didn't have that in 2012.
Dec 28, 2015 at 4:45 PM
I would be happy with the pick of Goff at #5 IF, and only IF, we shore up the oline in free agency. Then I could see he and gabbert battle it out
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