Reality check: QB's in round 1 & 2

Alot of you "fans" are rooting for us to lose so we can have better draft position. Most of you hope that position will land us a franchise QB. This is a reminder that drafting a franchise QB is a crap shoot.

Just take a look at the past few 1st-2nd round drafts. It's pretty grim. ('14/'15 is too early to tell)

2013:
1st- EJ Manuel
2nd- Geno Smith

2012:
1st- Andrew Luck
1st- RG3
1st- Ryan Tannehill
1st- Brandon Weeden
2nd- Brock Osweiler

2011:
1st- Cam Newton
1st- Jake Locker
1st- Gabbert
1st- Ponder
2nd- Dalton
2nd- Kap

2010:
1st- Sam Bradford
1st- Tim Tebow
2nd- Jimmy Clausen

2009:
1st- Stafford
1st- Mark Sanchez
1st- Josh Freeman
2nd- Pat White

2008:
1st- Matt Ryan
1st- Flacco
2nd- Brian Brohm
2nd- Chad Henne

2007:
1st- JaMarcus
1st- Brady Quinn
2nd- Kevin Kolb
2nd- John Beck
2nd- Drew Stanton

2006:
1st- Vince Young
1st- Matt Leinart
1st- Cutler
2nd- Kellen Clemens
2nd- Tavaris Jackson

I think everyone understands it's a luck draw. But your luck increases greatly at the top of the 1st round, then it does later.

Just going off of your recent list, Cutler, Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Bradford, Newton, Gabbert, Luck, and Tannehill are all starters. They aren't hall of famers, but they are quality QBs. The 49ers need to grab a QB in one of the first two rounds. Lynch, Goff, and Wentz are the most logical directions to roll the dice.

Originally posted by daragon:
I think everyone understands it's a luck draw. But your luck increases greatly at the top of the 1st round, then it does later.

Exactly. As far as I am concerned, every position can bust out, so let's not just pick on QBs. In any case, this is the hand that we have been dealt as in we will be drafting high in the coming draft and as such we need to roll the dice to get our next franchise QB.

Now go to my thread and look at the success rate of QBs taken in Rounds 3 and beyond.

Taking a QB in Round 1 is mostly a coin flip.

Round 2 you roll the dice.


Round 3 and beyond youre buying a lottery ticket.



Either you have a QB or you are continually trying to acquire one. I doubt that Jacksonville is still mad about Gabbert seeing the way that Bortles has been coming on for them.

The problem is, the hit rate sinks dramatically as you go down to the third and onwards. Dramatically.

Bottom line, whomever our GM is for the draft, they need to take the risk and make the leap in the first or second round. This team needs a franchise QB and the odds of us getting one are better taking one early. There are plenty of other picks and plenty of cap space to build around our future QB.

Even if we draft a qb who's gonna coach him jeep ???? Logan? Or some other poor sap that no other nfl will hire.

Originally posted by susweel:
Even if we draft a qb who's gonna coach him jeep ???? Logan? Or some other poor sap that no other nfl will hire.

Reality check

Good QBs outside the first 2 rounds in the last 20 years?

Russel Wilson
Tom Brady

9/34 are still starters.... So about a 26% chance (or 1 in 4) of success based on the 8 years listed. I would be interested to see where each of them land within the range of "expected" stars? I remember Luck, Stafford and Newton were consensus #1 picks. All the others were mostly drafted in the first round primarily because they wasn't anything better available and the teams needed a QB.

Originally posted by joaosoarrs99:
Reality check

Good QBs outside the first 2 rounds in the last 20 years?

Russel Wilson
Tom Brady

so much this. if anything all this says is you must take a QB with a high pick just to to have any shot of landing a good to great one.

Originally posted by joaosoarrs99:
Reality check

Good QBs outside the first 2 rounds in the last 20 years?

Russel Wilson
Tom Brady

The last Pro Bowl level QB picked in the 3rd round prior to Wilson.......Joe Montana, over 30 years earlier.




You've had some good QB's picked late or undrafted in addition to the guys you mentioned in Hasselbeck, Tony Romo, Kurt Warner.....but when you consider the sheer number of QB's picked late and how very few had any sort of success in the NFL, how very few took a single snap in the NFL, it becomes easy to see what a massive luck of the draw it is.

Originally posted by GrumpyDad:
so much this. if anything all this says is you must take a QB with a high pick just to to have any shot of landing a good to great one.

Romo was a free agent, Fitzpatrick was a late 7th round pick, they've had better careers than 95% of first or second rounders.

Originally posted by GreatGabbert:

Originally posted by GrumpyDad:
so much this. if anything all this says is you must take a QB with a high pick just to to have any shot of landing a good to great one.

Romo was a free agent, Fitzpatrick was a late 7th round pick, they've had better careers than 95% of first or second rounders.

out of how many 7th round/udfa QBs?