The "drafting a QB late" folly.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Tom Brady 6th round.


Boom.....

And how many other guys did absolutely nothing over a period of 20 years. For every Brady that you hit on as a late round pick there's like 40 other guys that don't do a thing in the NFL. Its why they call it the exception to the rule.

Best QB in the league.....

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Best QB in the league.....

And how many 6th rounders since Brady have become good starters? He was drafted in 1999, so over a period of 16 years there surely there should be some by now. 5th rounders?

I think if you need a QB now or a year from now you draft one if they are available as early as possible but the key to it is don't reach. It's a fine line but if you are sold that he's the guy then you need to take him.

Only reason to draft one late is for your practice squad or competition to bring in for your backup.

Great post! I said it from day one, if we are serious about drafting the next franchise QB, we cannot afford to mess around but to take a legit prospect in the 1st. I am even reluctant about the 2nd if I am being honest simply because I don't like the idea of settling. Kap was a 2nd rounder, I just don't want any excuse if the guy turns out to be trash. Let's put our best foot forward and go for the guy we want.

Anyone else like Jacoby Brisett from NC State? I don't think he'll fall past the 3rd though. Sudfeld from IU looked good in the few games I saw him play in. Hogan from Stanford has looked a lot better this year too.

First or second (my preference), and we should be fine for now.

I don't feel good about this crop of qb's this year. I hope I am wrong.
The worst part for me is, if they take someone high (1st or early 2nd) I have absolutely zero faith in this
Ownership group/ front office to put the proper structure in place to develop him properly.

First round, second at the latest, let the kid mature on the bench behind Gabbert for a season or two. He can play mop up in blow out, wins, or losses. If Gabbert impresses, we have some film of the kid, and we trade him, if the kid shines, we trade Gabbert, can't lose.

Excellent work as usual, Phoenix.

Not that my opinion matters, but I respect the quality you bring to this forum!

Isn't the reality that even in the 1st and 2nd rounds "great" QBs are extremely rare?

It seems like half the league would upgrade their QB situation. Guys like Brady, Brees, Big Ben, Rodgers - these guys have been in the league 10+ years.

Every team that needs a franchise QB should be taking one high every year or every other year until they find their 10+ year starting franchise QB.

The stats don't lie - of the past 25 SB winners - the following QBs weren't "franchise" QBs:

1991 - Rypien
2000 - Dilfer
2002 - Brad Johnson
2012 - Flacco (on the border)
2007, 2011 - Eli (on the border)
2013 - Wilson (on the border)

I would actually consider Eli a franchise QB and Wilson may become one. So only 20% of the teams that have won the SB since 1991 did so without a franchise QB. Even so, Dilfer and Flacco were first round picks (as was Eli)

When you take out Brady (who is the single biggest draft anomaly in NFL history) the only true franchise QB to win a SB since 1991 that wasn't taken in the 1st or 2nd round was Kurt Warner.

Again, people want to talk about taking OL or DL - the BPA strategy - but if you truly want to be in SB contention for a decade plus, you should continue to draft QBs in the first or second round year after year until you land your hands down franchise QB.

Or does anyone here think we win five rings with Steve DeBerg and Elvis Grbac instead of Montana and Young for 20 years?

Originally posted by Rascal:
Great post! I said it from day one, if we are serious about drafting the next franchise QB, we cannot afford to mess around but to take a legit prospect in the 1st. I am even reluctant about the 2nd if I am being honest simply because I don't like the idea of settling. Kap was a 2nd rounder, I just don't want any excuse if the guy turns out to be trash. Let's put our best foot forward and go for the guy we want.

I'm not sure his point was that we have to draft a QB in the first round this year...just that the idea that "we can wait on QB til later in the draft" is unlikely to bring great results on the field.

I think Gabbert has played well enough so far to be a decent stop gap and hopefully more with improved coaching/OL/playmakers around him next year. IMO best route is to improve our trenches. Get that OL back to being dominant. Add playmakers whether on offense or defense. Then look for a QB after.

The way this roster looks now I think we're not looking at a very good team next year. Build up the team and then draft the best QB on the board or try to make a big trade up to get the guy you want. Maybe we won't be bad enough for a top 5 QB but those guys aren't always guarantees anyways.

Top 10 QBs this year
Tom Brady - 6th round
Carson Palmer - #1 overall
Andy Dalton - 2nd round
Russell Wilson - 3rd round
Tyrod Taylor - 6th round
Derek Carr - 2nd round
Phillip Rivers - #4 overall
Aaron Rodgers - #24 overall
Drew Brees - 2nd round
Alex Smith - #1 overall

Arguably these few guys are/were the "elite"

Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Peyton Manning

Only one of those guys was a top 5 pick. Rodgers was the 24th pick. Certainly with a little luck/good scouting/great coaching you can get yourself a top notch QB without a top 5 draft pick.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by Rascal:
Great post! I said it from day one, if we are serious about drafting the next franchise QB, we cannot afford to mess around but to take a legit prospect in the 1st. I am even reluctant about the 2nd if I am being honest simply because I don't like the idea of settling. Kap was a 2nd rounder, I just don't want any excuse if the guy turns out to be trash. Let's put our best foot forward and go for the guy we want.

I'm not sure his point was that we have to draft a QB in the first round this year...just that the idea that "we can wait on QB til later in the draft" is unlikely to bring great results on the field.

I think Gabbert has played well enough so far to be a decent stop gap and hopefully more with improved coaching/OL/playmakers around him next year. IMO best route is to improve our trenches. Get that OL back to being dominant. Add playmakers whether on offense or defense. Then look for a QB after.

The way this roster looks now I think we're not looking at a very good team next year. Build up the team and then draft the best QB on the board or try to make a big trade up to get the guy you want. Maybe we won't be bad enough for a top 5 QB but those guys aren't always guarantees anyways.

Top 10 QBs this year
Tom Brady - 6th round
Carson Palmer - #1 overall
Andy Dalton - 2nd round
Russell Wilson - 3rd round
Tyrod Taylor - 6th round
Derek Carr - 2nd round
Phillip Rivers - #4 overall
Aaron Rodgers - #24 overall
Drew Brees - 2nd round
Alex Smith - #1 overall

Arguably these few guys are/were the "elite"

Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Peyton Manning

Only one of those guys was a top 5 pick. Rodgers was the 24th pick. Certainly with a little luck/good scouting/great coaching you can get yourself a top notch QB without a top 5 draft pick.

Do it the other way around. Draft a franchise QB and build the team around him. We are only talking about the difference of one 1st round pick, is not like we are not drafting for other positions, be it OL, DL and so forth. Gabbert can be that bridge QB, but that is not to say not to draft a QB. Take Goff, let's groom him behind Gabbert for a year then unleash him. It will be pretty counter-intuitive only to draft when the team is good when we won't have the pick. We are talking about a franchise QB here, is time we had one and you have to invest a proper high 1st to get one.

Best QB in the last few years IMO:

Tony Romo(undrafted)
Tom Brady #199(6th round)
Russel Wilson #75(3rd round)
Derek Carr #36(2nd round)
Andy Dalton #35(2nd round)
Drew Brees #32(2nd round)
Aaron Rodgers #24
Big Ben #11
Matt Ryan #5
Philip Rivers #4
Eli Manning #1
Carson Palmer #1
Peyton Manning #1
Andrew Luck #1
Cam Newton #1

Originally posted by Rascal:
Do it the other way around. Draft a franchise QB and build the team around him. We are only talking about the difference of one 1st round pick, is not like we are not drafting for other positions, be it OL, DL and so forth. Gabbert can be that bridge QB, but that is not to say not to draft a QB. Take Goff, let's groom him behind Gabbert for a year then unleash him. It will be pretty counter-intuitive only to draft when the team is good when we won't have the pick. We are talking about a franchise QB here, is time we had one and you have to invest a proper high 1st to get one.

No QB prospect in this draft screams sure franchise QB and if you read what I wrote...IF the team doesn't feel there is a QB worth drafting at their pick it's much better to address other positions and worry about QB later.

Basically no reason to reach for a QB just to draft one.