The "drafting a QB late" folly.

Now that Gabbert has played a few good games, I'm hearing more people comment on drafting a QB in the 4th round or later. I think the focus on late round QB's is rather faulty since these players rarely if ever work out and most won't even play a single snap for the team that ends up drafting them. I remember seeing an analysis that showed that statistically you're better off drafting a punter or long snapper late than you are a QB since they so seldom provide any return at all.

Here's a look at some statistics detailing the success of late round QBs from 1994-2013.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-draft-round-round-quarterback-data




3rd round

You'd figure that over two decades you could find some pretty good prospects that came out of the 3rd round but Schaub and Wilson are the only guys to appear as long-term starters. Wilson himself largely fell due to his height and not questions about his ability as a QB. Mel Kiper stated that he'd have been a top 10 pick if he were about four inches taller so its pretty safe to say that he's more the exception and not the rule.

Wilson is the only quarterback since 1978 to be drafted after the second round and start all 16 games in his rookie year. Based on how well he's played so far, there's no reason not to believe Wilson will go down as the best third-round quarterback since Joe Montana (1979).

The Good-
Russell Wilson
Matt Schaub
Nick Foles
Brian Griese



The Bad-
Andrew Walter
Dave Ragone
Charlie Whitehurst
Jonathan Quinn
Brock Huard
Trent Edwards
Chris Simms
Charlie Frye
Brodie Croyle
Stoney Case
Bobby Hoying
Eric Zeier
Colt McCoy
David Greene
Giovanni Carmazzi
Ryan Mallett
Kevin O'Connell





4th Round

Not much to speak of here. Cousins has been coming on and improving so that's good, but otherwise its a pretty weak group outside of Garrard, Orton, Brooks and Cousins.

Last year I wrote that David Garrard was the best fourth-round quarterback since Rich Gannon (1987). Obviously there's not much competition for that title. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Orton could put up some numbers, but would make baffling mistakes as well. Orton may have never caught on in Chicago if Grossman wasn't so brittle.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-draft-round-round-quarterback-data

The Good
David Garrard
Kyle Orton
Aaron Brooks
Kirk Cousins
Dak Prescott

The Bad
Danny Kanell
Rob Johnson
Tyler Wilson
Stefan LeFors
Seneca Wallace
Pat Barnes
Matt Barkley
Rohan Davey
Sage Rosenfels
Stephen McGee
Chad May
Luke McCown
Steve Stenstrom
Chris Weinke
Mike Kafka
Dave Barr
Danny Wuerffel
Jesse Palmer
Joe Germaine
Jeff Lewis
Doug Nussmeier
Perry Klei



5th Round



The Good



The Bad




AJ Feeley
John Skelton
Mike McMahon
Troy Smith
Josh Johnson
TJ Yates
Craig Krenzel
Kurt Kittner
Dennis Dixon
Craig Nall
Randy Fasani
Brian St Pierre
Tee Martin
Ingle Martin
Adrian McPherson
Brandon Doman
Erik Ainge
Jay Barker
Jeff Rowe
John David Booty
Jonathan Crompton
Kevin Daft
Nate Davis
Nathan Enderle
Omar Jacobs
Rhett Bomar
Ricky "Montana" Stanzi




6th Round

I think when people usually talk about finding a QB in the draft, this is the round that defines that, with everyone hoping that they can get the next Brady or even a Matt Hasselbeck or Marc Bulger.




The Good


Tom Brady
Matt Hasselbeck
Marc Bulger
Tyrod Taylor(for now)
Derek Anderson(With "good" being relative here I guess)




The Bad



Andre Woodson
Jim Sorgi
Jim Miller
Andy Hall
Joe Webb
Chuck Clements
Brooks Bollinger
Colt Brennan
Bruce Gradkowski
Dan LeFevour
Craig Whelihan
JaJuan Seider
Curtis Painter
Jeff Smoker
Tony Pike
Jerry Colquitt
J.T. O'Sullivan
John Dutton
Josh Booty
Ryan Lindley
Josh Harris
Keith Null
Josh Heupel
Rusty Smith
Mike Cawley
Spergon Wynn
Mike Teel
Jordan Palmer
Spence Fischer
Tom Brandstater
Todd Husak
Drew Henson
Kliff Kingsbury
Mike Cherry










7th Round

The word "good" here starts to become very loosely applied.


The Good

Matt Cassel
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Flynn
Tim Rattay
Koy Detmer
Gus Frerotte


The Bad
Casey Bramlet
Glenn Foley
Zac Dysert
D.J. Shockley
Tony Graziani
Chandler Harnish
James Kilian
Ken Dorsey
Brad Sorensen
Jeff Kelly
Matt Mauck
John Walsh
Moses Moreno
Jon Stark
Jarious Jackson
Kyle Wachholtz
Greg McElroy
Ronnie McAda
Gibran Hamdan
Sean Canfield
Chris Greisen
Seth Burford
John Navarre
Tony Corbin
Levi Brown
Wes Pate
Bradlee Van Pelt
Zac Robinson
Scott Covington
Jay Walker
Cody Pickett
Steve Matthews
Wally Richardson
Michael Bishop
Joe Hamilton
Tyler Thigpen
Alex Brink


The BJ's

BJ Coleman
BJ Daniels
BJ Symons

But history suggests that that quarterback taken on Day 3 will, on average, play two NFL seasons, never be his team's primary starter, will sport a 2-5 career record (if he's lucky), complete 54.7 percent of his passes and throw 3 touchdowns against 6 interceptions.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24563457/excited-about-that-late-round-qb-your-team-drafted-dont-be






Its fun to look for QB's late in the draft, hoping that one might turn out to be a diamond in the rough but history shows that you're far more likely to wind up with a huge chunk of coal.

For future drafts, Wilson may have broken the height discrimination against quarterbacks, but history still shows he will be an outlier. It's true you can get a quarterback later in the draft, but he's more likely to turn out to be Curtis Painter, Mike McMahon, B.J. Symons or that guy from The Bachelor than the next Wilson or Brady. If you want a franchise quarterback, the top of the draft is still the first place to look.

Totally agree with this. Drafting a QB in the 4th round or lower is like purchasing a Powerball ticket. Sure, a very small percentage of the time, a powerball ticket is a winning ticket. But an overwhelming majority of the time, it is not.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
Totally agree with this. Drafting a QB in the 4th round or lower is like purchasing a Powerball ticket. Sure, a very small percentage of the time, a powerball ticket is a winning ticket. But an overwhelming majority of the time, it is not.

Its exactly what it is. The draft in general becomes very sketchy in the 4th round and beyond but the QB position especially has an atrocious rate of success.

I think at that point in the draft you're better off drafting for some other position unless you're hoping to land a guy who might be a decent backup QB for a few years.

I would still go QB in the first and let him sit for a year, at the latest go 2nd round qb or maybe trade back into the late first if someone like Goff or Lynch drop.

I'm pretty sure we can find the next Tom Brady.

Scouting just needs to find a guy who fits all of these

49ers fan growing up
Good in clutch situations
Not afraid to get hit
Loves the game
Plays to win everything he plays even if it means cheating
Good height
Handsome


You're welcome Trent.

Originally posted by genus49:
I'm pretty sure we can find the next Tom Brady.

Scouting just needs to find a guy who fits all of these

49ers fan growing up
Good in clutch situations
Not afraid to get hit
Loves the game
Plays to win everything he plays even if it means cheating
Good height
Handsome


You're welcome Trent.

Nate Sudfeld?

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Nate Sudfeld?

Not handsome enough :(

Originally posted by genus49:
Not handsome enough :(

Most good QBs are drafted in the first 2 rounds.

Originally posted by joaosoarrs99:
Most good QBs are drafted in the first 2 rounds.

Cliffnotes for this thread I guess.

Originally posted by joaosoarrs99:
Most good QBs are drafted in the first 2 rounds.

I disagree. I think that few good QBs are drafted in round 3 or later.

Colt Brennan...whatever happened to that guy?

let's turn the approach around. if you want to draft a solid qb at the very least, you have to pick one in round 1-2. at least, this is true for the last 15 years or so.
out of the top of my head:
palmer
smith
dalton (this season)
rivers
eli
peyton
Roethlisberger
Newton (more than less)
luck
brees
mcnabb
rodgers
ryan
stafford (more or less)
flacco
tannehill (more or less)
cutler (more or less)

3rd round should be the latest we wait to draft a QB. regardless of how well Gabbert has been playing and even if he continues to play at the same pace.

Anthony Davis better announce quick if he's coming back or not so that we can determine what to do with the 1st round pick.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Nate Sudfeld?

Well he has won 6 games at Indiana this year. Which is like USC winning 12 games. Last Indiana team to win 6+ games: 2007 and before that 1993....