Working the Draft: Value Picks vs Over-Drafted Reaches

The thing that really changed my perspective on how I view the draft was the sneak peak of the 2010 cowboys big board where they had Bowman rated as a 1st round pick and Anthony Davis a third round pick. I realized then how spread opinions can be about certain prospects and how "value" is such a subjective thing.

Let's say 6 GMs have Tartt rated a 2nd rounder and 20 have him rated a 3rd rounder and 6 have him rated a 4th rounder. If the 49ers have him rated as a 2nd rounder what should they have done at the time of their pick?

Originally posted by natrone06:
You do understand draft projections and "consensus" are meaningless and not supported by any real evidence. 32 different GMs with 32 different opinions on players in which none of us are privy to.

Yeah, if you take MadDog's board and take a look at the other 31 picks, you are going to find "reaches" all over the place for every team and every year. Some drafts will look just like ours. Also, value is determined by stacking players based on perceived skill sets and where one thinks they'll fall. But the reason boards are different are b/c skill sets may fit better with some teams and their systems vs. others (hence the "reaches").

Even though AA was still projected to go to us by, literally, everyone (just about), we were still able to trade back 2 spots with confidence (b/c neither the Chargers nor the Texans needed him in their defensive system) AND pick up Blake Bell (for free) b/c OTHER teams don't run a 3-4 nor do they run a 3-4 that requires an experienced college 2-gap DE.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by natrone06:
You do understand draft projections and "consensus" are meaningless and not supported by any real evidence. 32 different GMs with 32 different opinions on players in which none of us are privy to.

Yeah, if you take MadDog's board and take a look at the other 31 picks, you are going to find "reaches" all over the place for every team and every year. Some drafts will look just like ours. Also, value is determined by stacking players based on perceived skill sets and where one thinks they'll fall. But the reason boards are different are b/c skill sets may fit better with some teams and their systems vs. others (hence the "reaches").

Even though AA was still projected to go to us by, literally, everyone (just about), we were still able to trade back 2 spots with confidence (b/c neither the Chargers nor the Texans needed him in their defensive system) AND pick up Blake Bell (for free) b/c OTHER teams don't run a 3-4 nor do they run a 3-4 that requires an experienced college 2-gap DE.

Great way to look at it. I think if AA and Belldozer even turn out to be halfway decent this was a masterful move to trade down.

Draft is over time to let this s**t go and hope these guys develop. There will be plenty of time to trash these picks in the future if they don't pan out.

Originally posted by 24plus25er:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by natrone06:
You do understand draft projections and "consensus" are meaningless and not supported by any real evidence. 32 different GMs with 32 different opinions on players in which none of us are privy to.

Yeah, if you take MadDog's board and take a look at the other 31 picks, you are going to find "reaches" all over the place for every team and every year. Some drafts will look just like ours. Also, value is determined by stacking players based on perceived skill sets and where one thinks they'll fall. But the reason boards are different are b/c skill sets may fit better with some teams and their systems vs. others (hence the "reaches").

Even though AA was still projected to go to us by, literally, everyone (just about), we were still able to trade back 2 spots with confidence (b/c neither the Chargers nor the Texans needed him in their defensive system) AND pick up Blake Bell (for free) b/c OTHER teams don't run a 3-4 nor do they run a 3-4 that requires an experienced college 2-gap DE.

Great way to look at it. I think if AA and Belldozer even turn out to be halfway decent this was a masterful move to trade down.

Tom Coughlin literally just said, "Of course he's a high value pick...that's why we drafted him!" And by "value" he means he fits their team no matter what role that is (ST, rotational player, key role player, HOFer, etc.).

Originally posted by 24plus25er:
Great way to look at it. I think if AA and Belldozer even turn out to be halfway decent this was a masterful move to trade down.

Agreed!

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
This. All these draft ratings, profiles and projections are entertaining but lol at anyone who takes them to heart. Youre talking about someones subjective opinions of a player without thought to fit on a particular scheme or even full access to all the data that GM's are privy to.

The Cards took a guy in the 4th round that was widely thought to go undrafted, the Patriots took a long smapper right after the 49ers took Pinion, once the draft starts, all the previous prognostications, mock drafts, player profiles, all of that is essentially meaningless.

If value picks are more important then draft position, why doesn't Baalke just trade away ALL his # 1s & # 2s & just draft value picks? OTHER GMs might know the difference between a value pick & an overreach but Baalke obviously doesn't. He obviously is just throwing a lot of sh*t up on the wall and hoping something sticks. It's ok to take a chance here and there like the Cards & Pats did, but they won't make it their WHOLE draft strategy. Should we start listing ALL the overreaches that had higher rated players still available, or the wasted redshirt players that haven't contributed anything to the team?

Originally posted by REB4:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
This. All these draft ratings, profiles and projections are entertaining but lol at anyone who takes them to heart. Youre talking about someones subjective opinions of a player without thought to fit on a particular scheme or even full access to all the data that GM's are privy to.

The Cards took a guy in the 4th round that was widely thought to go undrafted, the Patriots took a long smapper right after the 49ers took Pinion, once the draft starts, all the previous prognostications, mock drafts, player profiles, all of that is essentially meaningless.

If value picks are more important then draft position, why doesn't Baalke just trade away ALL his # 1s & # 2s & just draft value picks? OTHER GMs might know the difference between a value pick & an overreach but Baalke obviously doesn't. He obviously is just throwing a lot of sh*t up on the wall and hoping something sticks. It's ok to take a chance here and there like the Cards & Pats did, but they won't make it their WHOLE draft strategy. Should we start listing ALL the overreaches that had higher rated players still available, or the wasted redshirt players that haven't contributed anything to the team?

Originally posted by NCommand:

This is of course the only reasonable response to that rubbish.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
This is of course the only reasonable response to that rubbish.

I would like to say a lot of you veterans of this forum really spoke with true knowledge,it is refreshing to hear sound assessment of this draft,I personally think that Baalke did a very good job,I like this draft because I see some serious talent all the way around ,some that will take time to develop others that will contribute right away, I just wonder about the Pinion pick,is this for the salary of Lee or is there something wrong with Lee?

Originally posted by REB4:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
This. All these draft ratings, profiles and projections are entertaining but lol at anyone who takes them to heart. Youre talking about someones subjective opinions of a player without thought to fit on a particular scheme or even full access to all the data that GM's are privy to.

The Cards took a guy in the 4th round that was widely thought to go undrafted, the Patriots took a long smapper right after the 49ers took Pinion, once the draft starts, all the previous prognostications, mock drafts, player profiles, all of that is essentially meaningless.

If value picks are more important then draft position, why doesn't Baalke just trade away ALL his # 1s & # 2s & just draft value picks? OTHER GMs might know the difference between a value pick & an overreach but Baalke obviously doesn't. He obviously is just throwing a lot of sh*t up on the wall and hoping something sticks. It's ok to take a chance here and there like the Cards & Pats did, but they won't make it their WHOLE draft strategy. Should we start listing ALL the overreaches that had higher rated players still available, or the wasted redshirt players that haven't contributed anything to the team?

REB do you understand the art of building a team and sustaining the level of competition over a period of time?Baalke is not just throwing s**t against the wall and hoping some of it stick,I guess Willis , Bowman ,Aldon,Keap ,Reid,and other were the s**t He threw against the wall and stuck...Can you tell me exactly who it is that He did pick that has you upset and making statements like the on above?

Originally posted by natrone06:
You do understand draft projections and "consensus" are meaningless and not supported by any real evidence. 32 different GMs with 32 different opinions on players in which none of us are privy to.

Of course nobody knows for sure what will happen. After all, Brady was drafted in rd 6 and Montana rd 3 and ryan leaf was #2 overall pick.
But you want to get good value for your picks. So if you really love a player doesn't mean you pick them high if they will be availkable late.
For example, if you KNOW that Brady will be good but nobody will pick him until rd 6, do you pick him in rd 1?

I think Baalke is right and the draft will work out well, but it was a controversial draft because so many players were picked higher than expected, and it will be very telling (make or break) to see how it works out (as I explained in my OP).

Originally posted by English:
End thread, really. Drafting is not a science, people. It is nearer an art. Even the best fail and fail again. Look back at Bill Walsh's drafts. Every thread about Baalke always includes posters gloating about Jenkins. So when we discuss Bill Walsh, a master drafter, do they throw in Todd Shell's name triumphantly, before demanding that he should have been sacked?" Or James Owens. Who? Bill Walsh's first pick was not a huge success.

And that is drafting. You will get Willis. You will get Jenkins. But then you pick up Frank Gore in the 3rd or Aaron Lynch in the 5th.

Certainly you are right that drafting is unpredictable. But you act like it's a complete crap shoot. That is not the case, as good drafting and talent evaluation is by far the single most important factor determining which teams win. Teams that have won consistently like have been excellent at talent eval. Teams run by the likes of terry Donahue, Dwight Clark and Joe Thomas has been destroyed by bad drafting and bad talent evaluation.

"End thread, really." Why then do we post anything here? Since none of us really don't know what's behind the scenes we should just 'end thread'? Actually since drafting and talent eval is the most important part of building a good team, I think it's worthy of discussion.

Drafting is indeed an 'art', and part of the drafting artistry is knowing WHEN to pick the players, (not just WHO to pick). We will never know if these players would have lasted another round (ie. reaches picked too early) or if some other team would have picked them right afterwards. But time WILL tell if he picked the right players. It will be interesting to see.

My point is that Baalke took some risks and really put his neck on the line with this draft. He didn't go with the safe popular 'consensus' picks, he put his neck on the chopping block by drafting players higher than expected, which is a big risk to his reputation since if they bust people can say he 'reached' for these players and they busted and then blame Baalke (as they did with AJ Jenkins).

Originally posted by GoForGold:
Just an observation here...
2011 DRAFT
Aldon Smith
Colin Kaeperkick
Chris Culliver
Kendall Hunter
Daniel Kilgore
Ronald Johnson
Colin Jones
Bruce Miller
Mike Person
Curtis Holcomb
Mel Kipers grade? C

NFL.com grade was A+ for the 49ers 2011 draft http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000356334/article/2011-draft-grades-49ers-bears-on-opposite-ends-of-grade-curve . . . their grade for the horrible 2012 draft (Jenkins, James, etc) was a C. So it's not like they are all idiots, they were correct in their evals of these drafts.

Originally posted by theduke85:

Originally posted by Vito_Corleone:
"Reaches" and round projected to be picked: (per popular mock draft projections)
Rd 1. Armstead: many slotted him to the 49ers, but others (like Bill Polian) thought he was a reach. (so borderline reach)
Rd 2. Tartt: was projected in rd 3-4
Rd 4. Bell: projected in rd 5
Rd 4. Smelter: projected rd 5-7
Rd 5. Pinion: projected UDFA
Rd 6. Silberman: projected UDFA

"Steals": Rd 3. Eli Harold: projected rd 2

This is a very superficial way of looking it. Teams don't adhere to publicly-available draft boards. It is especially ridiculous when you start breaking it down in the later rounds. I mean, we took Bell in the 4th, and you think it's a reach because he was "supposed" to go in the 5th? He was the 117th pick in the draft. How in blazing hell could draft experts predict that far into the draft with any reliability?

You are the one being "very superficial", try actually reading what I wrote. I specifically stated "per popular mock draft projections". It's not me that thinks it's a reach, it's per the popular mock drafts. I don't really know these players myself, I just read the mock drafts like I stated, and they had these players going later than where we picked them = they thought they were 'reaches'.

So Baalke is willing to go out on a limb and take a chance and not just take the 'safe, popular' pick. I think it's good that Baalke is willing to take a risk. But it's also imp to get good value and not select players higher than you need to. This draft will tell the Baalke story. If this draft does well we know Baalke is good. If it's a bad draft, I think Baalke will be blamed for reaching. Personally I think it will turn out well.