Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Summary: I'll admit, as much as I want to give "Bargain Bin" Baalke the benefit of the doubt, this latter half of the draft was painful. This is where Baalke is supposed to make his money, earn his keep. If some of these guys aren't at least role playing contributors, if they aren't at least on the team or practice squad (and that's at the absolute BARE MINIMUM), then the pick is completely wasted. THAT, my friends, is UNACCEPTABLE.
I'm not saying he's wasted them NOW. Not yet. But I'm very concerned that this may be the case. Maybe Baalke and the scouts saw things no one else did. Maybe. Maybe not. We had four picks after the 4th round. The outcome of these later picks will be a testament to how good Baalke & company really are. If none of them make the team, I will be furious. You can't throw away picks like that. You don't pick players you don't think can make the team and contribute. That's the whole point of the draft, so obviously they believe these guys were worth it.
I haven't seen the results yet, but I admit I was underwhelmed with some of the picks. The success of this is tied heavily -- check that, almost ENTIRELY -- to the long term development of some talented, but project players. I'll give Baalke credit for getting a couple more picks for next year again, but that doesn't change my grade much.
1. Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon
While not a bad pick, he wasn't the best value on the board to me. There is obviously a lot of upside and his playoff/bowl game/championship performances were very good, but I thought he was a borderline 1st, early 2nd. Yes, his numbers weren't great partially due to the scheme and his role, but Henry Anderson played in the same scheme -- even spending some time at NT -- and put up superior numbers. GRADE: B+
2. Jaquiski Tartt, S, Samford
I graded Tartt as an early third rounder. Small school status bumped him down a little, but he competed well at the Senior Bowl and depending on how quick he adjusts, he can contribute in year one. He is one of the better safeties in a weak class and provides insurance if Reid gets hurt again. Slightly higher than I thought he'd go, but not exactly a reach when there was a chance another team probably would've taken him if we tried to trade back. Still, several players available here at WR I would've taken instead and then got a safety later. GRADE: B+
3. Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia
Still needs a lot of work, but that is to be expected from a raw, 20 year old underclassman. He flashes potential and is the right value here in the 3rd. This is a good pick. GRADE: A
4. Blake Bell, TE, Oklahoma
This is a better pick than people think. Great red zone threat who is just scratching the surface of his potential. 6-6 260 yet quicker (6.88 3-cone time at combine) than most receivers. Bell talked about how at QB you're not focusing on the same kind of muscle development you do in the upper body at tight end and that he continues to get stronger and stronger there. Vernon likely isn't back in 2016 and if we cut ties with McDonald, Bell probably makes the team. Grade: A-
4. Mike Davis, RB, South Carolina
Certainly needs to improve his conditioning and take care of his body so he stays healthy, but when he is healthy, he's a good, balanced player. Solid par-value pick here. GRADE: B+
4. DeAndre Smelter, WR, Georgia Tech
Was picked way sooner than I expected, and hopefully he can fully recover. The massive learning curve and the injury had me giving him a 6th - 7th round grade. While he has some skills to work with, I'd have waited at least until the 5th or so to take him. Reason? He'll likely miss all of this season. Even if he does recover, considering the learning curve in his next seasons, at best we have a good possession receiver in 3 years. GRADE: C+
5. Bradley Pinion, P, Clemson
In researching the punter, his best ability was pinning teams inside the 20. But I don't think he was the best K/P in this class. Would have taken Justin Manton (who doubles as a kicker -- anyone remember the great Craig Hentrich?) in the 7th. He may eventually be something, but I'm sorry, I don't see him beating out Andy Lee or even making the PS, so I can't be on board with an underclassman punter this early. GRADE: F
6. Ian Silberman, OG, Boston College
He shut out Leonard Williams in their matchup this year in the sack/TFL column (although, he did have help some of the time on double-teams). But that was just one game. He does flash a nasty streak but he played much of the season below 300 pounds which probably hurt his value to some teams. Also comes with a variety of technical flaws and inconsistencies, but that's typical for a sixth rounder. PS Candidate and maybe someone to compete for a job in year two. GRADE: B-
7. Trenton Brown, OT, Florida
This pick I like. Massive lineman who is remarkably light on his feet for his size. If they conditioned him to lose even a little bit of that weight and play at around 335-340, you've got a developmental OT with swing-tackle potential. GRADE: A
7. Rory "Busta" Anderson, TE, South Carolina
I actually mocked him to the 49ers a couple months back. Thought he was a very, very strange candidate for us to pick him if he was still here and sure enough, we did. Zero risk, high reward. Very athletic TE who could contribute if only he could stay healthy. Still think there were better players on the board, but I'm OK with this pick. B+
Overall grade: B
Bottom Line: Even though I like several of the players, the simple fact remains is that we were aware that none of these players were likely instant impact players, and we were okay with that. I cannot reconcile that as a fan. I am not a proponent of making your entire draft contingent upon projects developing. There needs to be balance, and having some projects and some immediate contributors throughout your draft should be the goal. We really didn't appear to do that -- or have any intention of doing that -- this year. When your "projects" aren't good enough -- and you already knew that there's a good chance they don't make the team -- and you take them anyway, that is wasteful, ineffecient drafting that won't get you maximum value to your team. The success of the players in the second half of this draft will tell us either Baalke knew something we didn't, or he's just not as good of a talent evaluator as some think.
I think a big part of the reason why they went with so many projects is that they have so many other guys who either haven't played or haven't gotten a chance to play much that they believe can make an impact. Reaser, Acker, Johnson, Thomas, Ramsay, Millard, Patton, Ellington, McDonald....etc....if you believe that those guys are ready for prime time, it changes things a lot.
Good post. If even half of these guys turn out to earn substantial play time, it will be a success. That is why this year's draft is frustrating to evaluate. AA is an example: If Justin comes back for one more year, Armstead wouldn't see much playing time anyway, but in the meantime he will be learning from one of the best. OTOH, if Smith does retire, Armstead is a logical replacement but would have to compete with Carradine and Dial for PT in a rotation.
My main point is that this draft is largely about looking down the road. "What do we have if..." is the message. What about if Reid turns out to have more concussion issues? What if Bethea starts to slow down? Tartt, though picked a bit early, was not likely going to be around later so grab a guy you know will fill a role even though you don't need him right now. You can make that same scenario on most of the picks. It is about drafting a year ahead of time so he will be seasoned when you really need him.
With the moves in FA, there were no glaring holes on the team. Yes, it would have been nice to have an impact player or two but I don't see many of them past the top 10-12. The rest are just very good players that will need some seasoning but will be very good when that happens.
B is an absolutely fair and honest grade IMHO. Like I said, grading is subjective obviously but most grades are assigned to the picks that where made in relation to where they were ranked on THEIR boards. Period. I take a BW approach...I don't care where a player was ranked or valued but rather, 1) was the player acquired or not and 2) does that player make a unit stronger (now OR later) and 3) do they fit our scheme.
From this perspective, this is a very high draft success. Just look at the following players who will FINALLY get a chance to compete THIS year alone from previous drafts/acquisitions:
Current Offensive Personnel:
QB: Blaine Gabbert
RB1: Carlos Hyde; Kendall Gaskins
RB2: Kendall Hunter
H-Back: Derek Carrier
TE: Vance McDonald; Garrett Celek, Asante Cleveland & Xavier Grimble
FB: Trey Millard
X: None
Y (SLOT): Bruce Ellington; Chuck Jacobs
Z: Quinton Patton
LOT: None
ROT: Chris Martin
LG: Brandon Thomas/Marcus Martin; Andrew Tiller
RG: Joe Looney
C: Daniel Kilgore/Marcus Martin; Dillon Farrell
Current Defensive Personnel:
RDE: Tank Carradine; Kaleb Ramsey & Lawrence Okoye
LDE: Quinton Dial; Tony Jerrod-Eddie
NT: Glenn Dorsey/Ian Williams; Mike Purcell & Garrison Smith
WILL: Corey Lemonier
SAM: Aaron Lynch
TED: Shayne Skov
MIKE: Nick Moody (Robber role now?)
RCB: Dontae Johnson & Leon McFadden
LCB: Chris Cook & Marcus Cromartie
SLOT: Kenneth Acker & Keith Reaser
NICKLE/DIME (SS/ILB): None
FS: L.J. McCray
SS: None
Current Special Teams:
LS: None
PK: None
P: None
PR/KOR: None
That's
40 players from a 90-man roster where players that were previously acquired or drafted, will get a legit chance to compete in a real, open-competitions. 40!
Now let's look at who gets to compete THIS year
and NEXT year:
Current Offensive Personnel: (Injured Reserve) -- Starter -- Rookie
QB: Dylan Thompson/Blake Bell
RB1: Mike Davis
RB2: Kendall Hunter & Jarryd Hayne
H-Back: Derek Carrier
TE: Vance McDonald; Garrett Celek, Asante Cleveland, Xavier Grimble & Blake Bell
FB: Trey Millard
X: Rory 'Busta' Anderson & Issac Blakeney (DeAndre Smelter)
Y (SLOT): Chuck Jacobs, Darius Davis & DeAndrew White
Z: Quinton Patton, Jerome Simpson, Dres Anderson & DiAndre Campbell
LOT: Erik Pears & Patrick Miller
ROT: Chris Martin & Ian Silberman
LG: Marcus Martin; Andrew Tiller & Trenton Brown
RG: Joe Looney
C: Daniel Kilgore; Dillon Farrell
Current Defensive Personnel:
RDE: Tank Carradine/Darnell Dockett; Kaleb Ramsey & Lawrence Okoye
LDE: Quinton Dial/Arik Armstead; Tony Jerrod-Eddie
NT: Glenn Dorsey/Ian Williams; Mike Purcell & Garrison Smith
WILL: Eli Harold; Corey Lemonier
SAM: Aaron Lynch
TED: Philip Wheeler, Desmond Bishop & Shayne Skov
MIKE: Nick Moody, Nick Bellore & Marcus Rush
RCB: Dontae Johnson; Shareece Wright & Leon McFadden
LCB: Chris Cook & Marcus Cromartie
SLOT: Kenneth Acker & Keith Reaser
NICKLE/DIME (SS/ILB): Jaquiski Tartt
FS: L.J. McCray
SS: None
Current Special Teams:
LS: Kyle Nelson
PK: Bradley Pinion
P: Bradley Pinion
PR/KOR: Bruce Ellington; Reggie Bush, Kendall Hunter & Jarryd Hayne
In 2016 we're scheduled to lose the following players (most likely) so IMHO, these were MUST picks to keep that "championship window open." IMHO, this was a VERY responsible draft:
Arik Armstead for Justin Smith
Jaquiski Tartt for Antoine Bethea
Eli Harold/Aaron Lynch for Ahmad Brooks or Aldon Smith
Blake Bell for Vernon Davis
Mike Davis for any injury to our RB's (annual issue for us)
DeAndre Smelter for Anquan Boldin
Bradley Pinion for Phil Dawson/Andy Lee
Ian Silberman for Eric Pears
Trenton Brown for Mike Iupati's incumbent/backup (Thomas/M.Martin)
Rory 'Busta' Anderson for Anquan Boldin's incumbent/backup (Smelter)
Dylan Thompson for Practice Squad QB
Patrick Miller T for Eric Pears
Dres Anderson Z WR for J.Simpson
Darius Davis Z WR for J.Simpson
DiAndre Campbell Z WR for J.Simpson
Issac Blakeney X WR for Anquan Boldin's incumbent/backup (Smelter)
DeAndrew White Y WR for competition/depth for Ellington
Marcus Rush OLB/ILB for backup to the Robber ILB/SS position behind Tartt/Moody
While most players acquired this year will be worked in slowly in packages for offensive and defensive sets, their "leap year" (i.e. year 2 in the system) will be next year at the same rate we'll be losing some key veterans. That's key!
[ Edited by NCommand on May 5, 2015 at 7:43 AM ]