MadDog49er Draft Analysis and Grade for 2015 NFL Draft

Nice analysis, NC. Always like your work, MD.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another draft year has come and gone, and honestly, the weekend felt anticlimactic to me. Some drafts are like that.

On the Niners' draft. In one word: Argh! And, I'll be honest with you- I think this draft will be the undoing of Trent Baalke. Baalke has a strong philosophy of being very patient with players to either recover from injury, or develop their game, to eventually make their mark. The list of players who have been redshirted has been lengthy in the past few drafts, as well as guys they feel will be contributors down the road. The problem with that philosophy is....it is down the road.

The team needs instant impact players...now. Which of these players are going to be instant impact players? Armstead? Tartt? Harold? Bell? Davis? Smelter? Pinion? Silverman? Brown? Anderson? I understand that teams should take some players that they believe will recover from injury and contribute after their first year, or some developmental guys that have upside. Maybe Baalke thinks that our team is so stocked with great players that nobody could be drafted and make an immediate impact. I see a roster that is aging quickly, and starting to lose some bodies. We have holes to fill, and there were guys in this draft that are very talented, and could have made a huge impact right away. We simply didn't make those choices, hence my disappointment.

Let's break them down one by one:
Armstead was my 49th best player in this draft. The upside- he could be the next Calais Campbell. The downside- he becomes a big stiffy. For a mid-first round pick, I can't miss on this pick. I need something that shows he was a dominant college player and that game translates to the pros. I don't see that in Armstead. He was largely a 3 tackle/game player in 2014, with 2.5 sacks. Good player, don't get me wrong. But, if you looked at a ton of football games, and you were given a piece of paper and said, "Write down 15-17 names of guys that you think will be a star in the NFL" I just don't think he's make the list.

That being said, I have long praised his play in the National Championship game against OSU. He was the best Oregon defender on the field, and played his butt off.

In the end, everyone knows that this is a projection pick- he will be a rotational player who maybe takes 15 snaps a game at this point. We hope he turns into a star. To me, is a mid-late second round value, not mid-first. Compare the difference in one pick between the 14th and 15th: Parker and Armstead. To me, there is a massive difference in value and performance.

Tartt is a really nice college player who may end up being a starter down the road (2-3 years) in the NFL. Had a solid Senior Bowl week, and has good coverage skills. Once again, nice player. WIth Bethea at SS, Tartt is riding pine for at least one year. We might see him in some sub-packages, but he might not hit the field barely at all in 2015. Bethea is signed through 2017, with pretty cap friendly numbers for a Pro-Bowler: 3 million, 4.5 million, 5.25 million. So, we added the fourth safety on our depth chart for a mid-second rounder. I don't get it.

I really like Eli Harold, and see a future stud edge player. He gave Ereck Flowers fits this year (the only player who Flowers struggled against). Super fast first step (1.56 10 yard split), and he is only 20 years old. In 2014, he is going to run behind at least two or three edge players (Smith, Lynch, maybe Brooks), so I am not sure how much playing time he is going to have.

So, in a breakdown of the top three picks, we pretty much have three players who are barely, if all, going to play in 2015. I have a problem with this.

In the fourth round, we pick up a tight end, in Blake Bell, who is a converted QB. Nice kid, good athlete, but little experience, and limited stats (16 catches in 12 games). This is a project player, plain and simple, and I can't see him making it on the field at all with Davis and McDonald in front of him. Maybe a few snaps in goalline position. I had Bell graded as a 6-7th rounder. Just not very good value.

The second pick of the fourth was Mike Davis, a player who had a better year in 2013, and ran for less than a thousand yards in 2014. Here is a big red flag to me. He ran behind two drafted OL in Robinson and Cann, and pulled off 4.9 yards/carry. In college, that is a very poor benchmark for a RB. I just didn't see much burst or explosiveness. He is tough, and good-sized. However, I don't see anything more than a mediocre change of pace back that makes little to no impact. Call me a skeptic on Davis.

Of the three fourth rounders, I like Smelter the best. I watched nearly all of the GT games this year, and he was clearly the better receiver between him and Waller. Smelter always seemed to make the key catches to keep drives alive. Good, reliable hands, a big target, finds seems on the field to sit down into. Much to like. The downside- he is STRICTLY a possession, intermediate route WR. There is no juice at all, and separation is going to be a challenge for him. The bigger immediate problem- he is not going to play in 2015 unless there is a miracle. His ACL was late in the year, and he is about 4 months removed from surgery. At best, he will be a PUP, but more than likely a redshirt candidate.

Quick question. Who was the 165th best eligible player in the NFL Draft. According to the 49ers, it is Bradley Pinion. NFLDraftScout ranked Pinion the 11th best punter in the NFL draft. We better hope they are wrong. Pinion finished 5th in the ACC in yards per punt. He did pick up a fairly large percentage of fair catches. Maybe Andy Lee's $2 million salary is something the team wants to dump. I just don't get the pick...at all.

Sorry to reference NFL Draft Scout too much, but they ranked Ian Silberman as the 47th best guard in this draft. He is a converted left tackle, and I have seen him play (I watched about 6 BC games this year). Someone in the front office must be related, because this is another headscratcher. Athletically, he fits into the 50th or so percentile for athleticism compared to OL at the combine. Going to have to rewatch some games to make a more complete observation.

Trenton Brown is a monstrous OT/G from Florida, who had a solid Senior Bowl week. Played alongside three other drafted OL for Florida this weekedn: Humphries, Garcia, Green. Amazing that offense was so dysfunctional with 4 NFL draftees. He is a Pittsburgh Steeler in size at 6'8 1/2", 355. Brown has 36 inch arms, which is enormous. Athletically, he is subpar, so he needs to kick inside. Might be a valuable swing OL down the road, as I think he can play a little RT in an emergency. Versatility huge with these late rounders. I like this pick.

I like Busta ("don't call me Rory") Anderson- I am sure the teachers loved that line in high school. Very good athlete. Fast, can split the seam. The problem- 61 career catches at South Carolina, and recurring hamstring and triceps injuries. He is injured all the time. Microscopic sized hands (less than 9"). He has practice squad written all over him.

Late rounders are late rounders, so I don't put too much value on them when establishing a final grade. For me, you have to hit on Rounds 1-4 with guys who either start, or are significant contributors that make a big difference on the team.

I hope I am wrong, and each of these guys becomes amazing players for the best franchise in the NFL. At the same time, I have to be real, objective, and put the pom-poms down. What I have seen this year in game action is what I must rely upon to grade players. This is one man's opinion. And that opinion is that Baalke is going to be in deep trouble with this cluster of players, because I see 2012 all over again in this group.

My grade: D (In this grade, I don't take additional future picks, nor undrafted free agents, into account. I only base it upon the players selected at their slots).

My draft when the Niners were on the clock (would have loved to have picked up Ty Lockett, Henry Anderson, David Parry along the way, but it is what it is).

1st Cameron Erving C
2nd Jaelen Strong WR
3rd Carl Davis DE
4th Jay Ajayi RB
4th Martrell Spaight ILB
4th Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB
5th Tre McBride WR
6th Joey Mbu NT
7th BJ Finney C/G
7th Anthony Harris SS

Well done

There isn't a bigger critic of Baalke than myself. The Zone crucified me last year when I attacked Baalke's drafts. His draft last year sucked IMO, and I said so immediately afterwards. His draft in 2012 obviously was a complete joke.

However, I loved this draft. Sure, I would have made some different moves here and there, but if you would have told me that we would end up with Armstead, Harold and Tartt in the first three rounds I would have given him an A.

Maddog, your criticism of Armstead is misplaced and the future will prove that out. Contrary to your argument that we have a lot of needs and aging vets, we actually don't have one legitimate "need" on the team despite the exodus this offseason.

Usually, I am at the other end of this phrase, but the Zone seriously needs to chill out. We are getting back to what made us great-defense. Harold will be a serious third down rusher at first, which we could seriously use. Armstead and Carradine are the future, and they are a bright future. If Dorsey goes back to NG I think Armstead starting sooner rather than later is not out of the question. Docket is primarily an interior pass rusher and will likely play more in nickel situations.

It seems that Brooks' going back to ILB is more likely than we thought. Baalke alluded to as much, so Wheeler, Brooks, Wilhoite, Bowman is solid. Brock, Ward, Cook, Johnson, Acker, Reaser and Wright isn't bad either.

I would look to serious attention to the OL and WR positions next year.

Originally posted by theninermaniac:
Draft was made by a GM with a ton of job security.

Which is the way it should be. You would prefer a gm thinking he needs to make a splash or go for some perceived immediate fix?

Originally posted by bigwads:
There isn't a bigger critic of Baalke than myself. The Zone crucified me last year when I attacked Baalke's drafts. His draft last year sucked IMO, and I said so immediately afterwards. His draft in 2012 obviously was a complete joke.

However, I loved this draft. Sure, I would have made some different moves here and there, but if you would have told me that we would end up with Armstead, Harold and Tartt in the first three rounds I would have given him an A.

Maddog, your criticism of Armstead is misplaced and the future will prove that out. Contrary to your argument that we have a lot of needs and aging vets, we actually don't have one legitimate "need" on the team despite the exodus this offseason.

Usually, I am at the other end of this phrase, but the Zone seriously needs to chill out. We are getting back to what made us great-defense. Harold will be a serious third down rusher at first, which we could seriously use. Armstead and Carradine are the future, and they are a bright future. If Dorsey goes back to NG I think Armstead starting sooner rather than later is not out of the question. Docket is primarily an interior pass rusher and will likely play more in nickel situations.

It seems that Brooks' going back to ILB is more likely than we thought. Baalke alluded to as much, so Wheeler, Brooks, Wilhoite, Bowman is solid. Brock, Ward, Cook, Johnson, Acker, Reaser and Wright isn't bad either.

I would look to serious attention to the OL and WR positions next year.

Only problem is Brooks and Wilhoite can't cover their a$$ with both hands. 2 down ILB's with minimal ability in coverage as an inside backer

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Another draft year has come and gone, and honestly, the weekend felt anticlimactic to me. Some drafts are like that.

On the Niners' draft. In one word: Argh! And, I'll be honest with you- I think this draft will be the undoing of Trent Baalke. Baalke has a strong philosophy of being very patient with players to either recover from injury, or develop their game, to eventually make their mark. The list of players who have been redshirted has been lengthy in the past few drafts, as well as guys they feel will be contributors down the road. The problem with that philosophy is....it is down the road.

The team needs instant impact players...now. Which of these players are going to be instant impact players? Armstead? Tartt? Harold? Bell? Davis? Smelter? Pinion? Silverman? Brown? Anderson? I understand that teams should take some players that they believe will recover from injury and contribute after their first year, or some developmental guys that have upside. Maybe Baalke thinks that our team is so stocked with great players that nobody could be drafted and make an immediate impact. I see a roster that is aging quickly, and starting to lose some bodies. We have holes to fill, and there were guys in this draft that are very talented, and could have made a huge impact right away. We simply didn't make those choices, hence my disappointment.

Let's break them down one by one:
Armstead was my 49th best player in this draft. The upside- he could be the next Calais Campbell. The downside- he becomes a big stiffy. For a mid-first round pick, I can't miss on this pick. I need something that shows he was a dominant college player and that game translates to the pros. I don't see that in Armstead. He was largely a 3 tackle/game player in 2014, with 2.5 sacks. Good player, don't get me wrong. But, if you looked at a ton of football games, and you were given a piece of paper and said, "Write down 15-17 names of guys that you think will be a star in the NFL" I just don't think he's make the list.

That being said, I have long praised his play in the National Championship game against OSU. He was the best Oregon defender on the field, and played his butt off.

In the end, everyone knows that this is a projection pick- he will be a rotational player who maybe takes 15 snaps a game at this point. We hope he turns into a star. To me, is a mid-late second round value, not mid-first. Compare the difference in one pick between the 14th and 15th: Parker and Armstead. To me, there is a massive difference in value and performance.

Tartt is a really nice college player who may end up being a starter down the road (2-3 years) in the NFL. Had a solid Senior Bowl week, and has good coverage skills. Once again, nice player. WIth Bethea at SS, Tartt is riding pine for at least one year. We might see him in some sub-packages, but he might not hit the field barely at all in 2015. Bethea is signed through 2017, with pretty cap friendly numbers for a Pro-Bowler: 3 million, 4.5 million, 5.25 million. So, we added the fourth safety on our depth chart for a mid-second rounder. I don't get it.

I really like Eli Harold, and see a future stud edge player. He gave Ereck Flowers fits this year (the only player who Flowers struggled against). Super fast first step (1.56 10 yard split), and he is only 20 years old. In 2014, he is going to run behind at least two or three edge players (Smith, Lynch, maybe Brooks), so I am not sure how much playing time he is going to have.

So, in a breakdown of the top three picks, we pretty much have three players who are barely, if all, going to play in 2015. I have a problem with this.

In the fourth round, we pick up a tight end, in Blake Bell, who is a converted QB. Nice kid, good athlete, but little experience, and limited stats (16 catches in 12 games). This is a project player, plain and simple, and I can't see him making it on the field at all with Davis and McDonald in front of him. Maybe a few snaps in goalline position. I had Bell graded as a 6-7th rounder. Just not very good value.

The second pick of the fourth was Mike Davis, a player who had a better year in 2013, and ran for less than a thousand yards in 2014. Here is a big red flag to me. He ran behind two drafted OL in Robinson and Cann, and pulled off 4.9 yards/carry. In college, that is a very poor benchmark for a RB. I just didn't see much burst or explosiveness. He is tough, and good-sized. However, I don't see anything more than a mediocre change of pace back that makes little to no impact. Call me a skeptic on Davis.

Of the three fourth rounders, I like Smelter the best. I watched nearly all of the GT games this year, and he was clearly the better receiver between him and Waller. Smelter always seemed to make the key catches to keep drives alive. Good, reliable hands, a big target, finds seems on the field to sit down into. Much to like. The downside- he is STRICTLY a possession, intermediate route WR. There is no juice at all, and separation is going to be a challenge for him. The bigger immediate problem- he is not going to play in 2015 unless there is a miracle. His ACL was late in the year, and he is about 4 months removed from surgery. At best, he will be a PUP, but more than likely a redshirt candidate.

Quick question. Who was the 165th best eligible player in the NFL Draft. According to the 49ers, it is Bradley Pinion. NFLDraftScout ranked Pinion the 11th best punter in the NFL draft. We better hope they are wrong. Pinion finished 5th in the ACC in yards per punt. He did pick up a fairly large percentage of fair catches. Maybe Andy Lee's $2 million salary is something the team wants to dump. I just don't get the pick...at all.

Sorry to reference NFL Draft Scout too much, but they ranked Ian Silberman as the 47th best guard in this draft. He is a converted left tackle, and I have seen him play (I watched about 6 BC games this year). Someone in the front office must be related, because this is another headscratcher. Athletically, he fits into the 50th or so percentile for athleticism compared to OL at the combine. Going to have to rewatch some games to make a more complete observation.

Trenton Brown is a monstrous OT/G from Florida, who had a solid Senior Bowl week. Played alongside three other drafted OL for Florida this weekedn: Humphries, Garcia, Green. Amazing that offense was so dysfunctional with 4 NFL draftees. He is a Pittsburgh Steeler in size at 6'8 1/2", 355. Brown has 36 inch arms, which is enormous. Athletically, he is subpar, so he needs to kick inside. Might be a valuable swing OL down the road, as I think he can play a little RT in an emergency. Versatility huge with these late rounders. I like this pick.

I like Busta ("don't call me Rory") Anderson- I am sure the teachers loved that line in high school. Very good athlete. Fast, can split the seam. The problem- 61 career catches at South Carolina, and recurring hamstring and triceps injuries. He is injured all the time. Microscopic sized hands (less than 9"). He has practice squad written all over him.

Late rounders are late rounders, so I don't put too much value on them when establishing a final grade. For me, you have to hit on Rounds 1-4 with guys who either start, or are significant contributors that make a big difference on the team.

I hope I am wrong, and each of these guys becomes amazing players for the best franchise in the NFL. At the same time, I have to be real, objective, and put the pom-poms down. What I have seen this year in game action is what I must rely upon to grade players. This is one man's opinion. And that opinion is that Baalke is going to be in deep trouble with this cluster of players, because I see 2012 all over again in this group.

My grade: D (In this grade, I don't take additional future picks, nor undrafted free agents, into account. I only base it upon the players selected at their slots).

My draft when the Niners were on the clock (would have loved to have picked up Ty Lockett, Henry Anderson, David Parry along the way, but it is what it is).

1st Cameron Erving C
2nd Jaelen Strong WR
3rd Carl Davis DE
4th Jay Ajayi RB
4th Martrell Spaight ILB
4th Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB
5th Tre McBride WR
6th Joey Mbu NT
7th BJ Finney C/G
7th Anthony Harris SS

You ABSOLUTELY Feel THE SAME EXACT WAY I DO!!!!!!!!!!!!! So accurate I give you major props. I want the 49ers to win Big but this draft was absolutley ATROCIOUS. The Only 2 picks I like are the Eli Harold and Arik pick but the rest are Disappointment,USA.

I want Balke GONE!!!!!!

Originally posted by kezar49er:

Originally posted by bigwads:
There isn't a bigger critic of Baalke than myself. The Zone crucified me last year when I attacked Baalke's drafts. His draft last year sucked IMO, and I said so immediately afterwards. His draft in 2012 obviously was a complete joke.

However, I loved this draft. Sure, I would have made some different moves here and there, but if you would have told me that we would end up with Armstead, Harold and Tartt in the first three rounds I would have given him an A.

Maddog, your criticism of Armstead is misplaced and the future will prove that out. Contrary to your argument that we have a lot of needs and aging vets, we actually don't have one legitimate "need" on the team despite the exodus this offseason.

Usually, I am at the other end of this phrase, but the Zone seriously needs to chill out. We are getting back to what made us great-defense. Harold will be a serious third down rusher at first, which we could seriously use. Armstead and Carradine are the future, and they are a bright future. If Dorsey goes back to NG I think Armstead starting sooner rather than later is not out of the question. Docket is primarily an interior pass rusher and will likely play more in nickel situations.

It seems that Brooks' going back to ILB is more likely than we thought. Baalke alluded to as much, so Wheeler, Brooks, Wilhoite, Bowman is solid. Brock, Ward, Cook, Johnson, Acker, Reaser and Wright isn't bad either.

I would look to serious attention to the OL and WR positions next year.

Only problem is Brooks and Wilhoite can't cover their a$$ with both hands. 2 down ILB's with minimal ability in coverage as an inside backer

Jaquiski Tartt says . I think the 2 down ILBs will only play 2 downs, getting replaced by whomever wins the competition b/w Moody and Tartt.

Originally posted by fropwns:

MadDog recognizes dem Hogs!!!

Loved watching Arkansas play defense this year. And, I saw them a LOT. Flowers was outstanding, Spaight led the SEC in tackles, and Philon played at a high level. Pure joy to watch on the field. You can tell they were a tight unit.

Originally posted by ElephantHaley:
You ABSOLUTELY Feel THE SAME EXACT WAY I DO!!!!!!!!!!!!! So accurate I give you major props. I want the 49ers to win Big but this draft was absolutley ATROCIOUS. The Only 2 picks I like are the Eli Harold and Arik pick but the rest are Disappointment,USA.

I want Balke GONE!!!!!!

surprise, surprise

you, kray28, Young2Rice, Rascal are one and the same person, arent you?

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by ElephantHaley:
You ABSOLUTELY Feel THE SAME EXACT WAY I DO!!!!!!!!!!!!! So accurate I give you major props. I want the 49ers to win Big but this draft was absolutley ATROCIOUS. The Only 2 picks I like are the Eli Harold and Arik pick but the rest are Disappointment,USA.

I want Balke GONE!!!!!!

surprise, surprise

you, kray28, Young2Rice, Rascal are one and the same person, arent you?

You're kidding right? 49ers had a GLARING need for size and SPEED at WR and had Jalen Strong FALL to them in round 2 and yet they take some Tarrt dude from a small school when they already invested 2 first rounders for safeties the last 2 years. That is a fireable offense if it was up to me. Its kinda like Detroit drafting 3 WRs 3 straight years lol how did that turn out 2003,2004 and 2005. What are the 49ers gonna do when Anquan is a 36 year old FA next offseason??

Originally posted by ElephantHaley:

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by ElephantHaley:
You ABSOLUTELY Feel THE SAME EXACT WAY I DO!!!!!!!!!!!!! So accurate I give you major props. I want the 49ers to win Big but this draft was absolutley ATROCIOUS. The Only 2 picks I like are the Eli Harold and Arik pick but the rest are Disappointment,USA.

I want Balke GONE!!!!!!

surprise, surprise

you, kray28, Young2Rice, Rascal are one and the same person, arent you?

You're kidding right? 49ers had a GLARING need for size and SPEED at WR and had Jalen Strong FALL to them in round 2 and yet they take some Tarrt dude from a small school when they already invested 2 first rounders for safeties the last 2 years. That is a fireable offense if it was up to me. Its kinda like Detroit drafting 3 WRs 3 straight years lol how did that turn out 2003,2004 and 2005. What are the 49ers gonna do when Anquan is a 36 year old FA next offseason??

Considering that one is a starting FS, one is a starting NB, and one was likely drafted because of concussions suffered by the startinf FS and covereage deficiencies by our starting ILB, I think I'd let the dude keep his job. I wouldn't be too surprised if you see all three of them on the field at the same time, so I can't be mad about that.

Really the only players that could of made an immediate impact this year were a 2nd cb ilb and maybe a guard.

However
the guard was gone at 5
The ilbs may not of been a priority in the second or third to start over wilhoite
Peters could of been the second cb IF the coaches let him

Besides that, nobody could of started bc the niners have a lot of talent at many many positions.

Hell the Seahawks got NO starters either sooooo that's what good rosters do, have little openings for starters

Originally posted by WRATHman44:

Originally posted by kezar49er:

Originally posted by bigwads:
There isn't a bigger critic of Baalke than myself. The Zone crucified me last year when I attacked Baalke's drafts. His draft last year sucked IMO, and I said so immediately afterwards. His draft in 2012 obviously was a complete joke.

However, I loved this draft. Sure, I would have made some different moves here and there, but if you would have told me that we would end up with Armstead, Harold and Tartt in the first three rounds I would have given him an A.

Maddog, your criticism of Armstead is misplaced and the future will prove that out. Contrary to your argument that we have a lot of needs and aging vets, we actually don't have one legitimate "need" on the team despite the exodus this offseason.

Usually, I am at the other end of this phrase, but the Zone seriously needs to chill out. We are getting back to what made us great-defense. Harold will be a serious third down rusher at first, which we could seriously use. Armstead and Carradine are the future, and they are a bright future. If Dorsey goes back to NG I think Armstead starting sooner rather than later is not out of the question. Docket is primarily an interior pass rusher and will likely play more in nickel situations.

It seems that Brooks' going back to ILB is more likely than we thought. Baalke alluded to as much, so Wheeler, Brooks, Wilhoite, Bowman is solid. Brock, Ward, Cook, Johnson, Acker, Reaser and Wright isn't bad either.

I would look to serious attention to the OL and WR positions next year.

Only problem is Brooks and Wilhoite can't cover their a$$ with both hands. 2 down ILB's with minimal ability in coverage as an inside backer

Jaquiski Tartt says . I think the 2 down ILBs will only play 2 downs, getting replaced by whomever wins the competition b/w Moody and Tartt.

Hope the opponents cooperate and pass only on 3rd down.

Originally posted by elguapo:
Really the only players that could of made an immediate impact this year were a 2nd cb ilb and maybe a guard.

However
the guard was gone at 5
The ilbs may not of been a priority in the second or third to start over wilhoite
Peters could of been the second cb IF the coaches let him

Besides that, nobody could of started bc the niners have a lot of talent at many many positions.

Hell the Seahawks got NO starters either sooooo that's what good rosters do, have little openings for starters

Seattle went to the Supe Bowl last year. The Niners went 8-8.

Originally posted by ElephantHaley:
You're kidding right? 49ers had a GLARING need for size and SPEED at WR and had Jalen Strong FALL to them in round 2 and yet they take some Tarrt dude from a small school when they already invested 2 first rounders for safeties the last 2 years. That is a fireable offense if it was up to me. Its kinda like Detroit drafting 3 WRs 3 straight years lol how did that turn out 2003,2004 and 2005. What are the 49ers gonna do when Anquan is a 36 year old FA next offseason??

Draft his successor? acquire his successor through FA? Promote Patton to #1?