MadDog49er Draft Analysis and Grade for 2015 NFL Draft

Originally posted by genz22:
You put in work. Much respect and much appreciated!

I actually like the upside of this draft. I dislike there are no immediate plug and play picks for 2015.

I love Tartt pick. I honestly think he is a baller.

I really wanted Hundley and Strong!

I'm getting warm with this pick as well. Every team needs 1-2 relentless guys who can hit hard. According to his statement, he played a lot in the slot. Imagine the anxiety the NFL slot WRs will have after Tarrt established an image of a bonebreaker or so. They will do EVERYthing to avoid his ZONE, I don't even to start talking about a contact with him.

Originally posted by SofaKing:
A lot of these guys are physical specimens. A bit rough around the edges, but have really exciting potential.

I really liked this draft for what it could turn into down the road. I think a few of these guys will have a role for this year, or at least can compete for one during camp. I think Tartt gets the most playing time out of this class, mostly as a sub-package defender in Nickel and Dime. I also think we're a little deeper at certain position groups than we get credit for (WR and CB come to mind). Ellington, Patton, Reaser, Acker, and Johnson are all recent draft choices who have the talent to contribute. It's just a matter of putting them on the field and giving them a role.

But I can totally see the point of view from people who dislike this draft. We never grabbed that WR, ILB, or CB that would instantly vault toward the top of the depth chart and play big roles. I don't like to get into "value" and "reaches" because each team structures their board very differently and looks for different skill sets depending on the scheme/needs. I'm most disappointed we didn't grab a stud LB to pair with Bowman. I'm glad we addressed the d-line in the 1st round, even though Armstead wasn't really the guy I wanted.

Even so, we did get some really talented prospects spread all throughout the roster, and I'm looking forward to seeing some of our past draft picks get a chance to play and prove their worth.

A lot to be confused about w/Baalke's picks.

Totally w/you.

I'll feel a hell of a lot better if some of our past draft picks come in and play at a high level. Sort of "proof is in the pudding"

If Ellington and Patton really shine, Thomas excels at LG and Martin subs in for Boone to gain experience, Acker and the other IR guys play effectively then I'll understand this draft better.

PS. The sky isn't falling.

I appreciate and respect the work you do MD, but I actually like Baalke's draft more than yours this time around. If Bowman is healthy, I like Willhoite as a starter, as they were wrecking dudes together in 2013.I really like the talent and depth we have in the interior line, with or without Boone, and didn't think OL early was a must. I'd have preferred to address swing tackle earlier, so we didn't have to depend on Pears, Boone, or Thomas for that, but I haven't been in the meetings.

I don't think we had a great chance to get a starter from this draft on this team. I, like the 49ers apparently, didn't like the CBs or ILBs in this class (all of my favorite candidates for ILB were conversion projects from OLB). I think any player we got in rds 1-2 would have been at most a rotational guy this year (Parker wasn't going to push Boldin or Smith to the bench). I think they treat Armstead like Aldon and train him up for one responsibility this year (DT in Nickle/dime or DE in base 3-4) and let him get his feet wet without filling his head with too many responsibilities. I think Tartt comes in on nickle/dime sets to handle the LB coverage responsibilities, where Willhoite's primary weaknesses (acceleration and lateral change of direction) got exposed last year. I think Harold protects us against another bad year from Lemon and another fat year from Brooks (whose contract might need to be dumped, even though he took a ~$2MM de-escalation for sucking again). Bell and Anderson light a fire under McDonald and Carrier/Miller/Millard, respectively. Anderson could be the replacement to Walker we've been missing for a bit and hoping Millard and Carrier could become. His injuries could be diet/recovery issues. Most hammy injuries start out as cramps that get overworked, and can be avoided with water intake and smarter diet.

This draft pleases me on the surface, but it's obviously WAAAAAAY to early to assign a grade. We at least need to see how these guys respond to coaching.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Armstead was my 49th best player in this draft.

I'm really confused -- what is your "big board" (I saw Arik was 15th on that)? I thought this was how you ranked all of the prospects in the draft. Re-reading, it looks like it's more of the order you expect players to get drafted in.

Do you ever release your personal ranking of players? I feel silly, because for years I've referenced that and been brimming with excitement when I see us take players that are drafted high on your board.

Originally posted by communist:
we cant afford to go after a Center in round 1 when we got two guys in this position of which one of them was coached for a couple of years to play there. And he seemed to be solid last year. Erving would have been a luxury pick.

At WR, we are set with Boldin and Torrey for now. Ellington should be lined up in the slot pretty often, imho. Therefore, one cannot expect an impact by any WR-draftee because he wouldn't see the field that often.
At CB, we are loaded with people for now as well.
At ILB, I am a little bit surprised as well. Then again, Baalke does never align with our expectations.

My understanding is that the player played all positions on the line - his latest was center. Most likely the 49ers would have started him as a guard in their OL, if they had drafted him.

Well that was a depressing read....

Thanks for all the hard work MD.

Originally posted by theduke85:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Armstead was my 49th best player in this draft.

I'm really confused -- what is your "big board" (I saw Arik was 15th on that)? I thought this was how you ranked all of the prospects in the draft. Re-reading, it looks like it's more of the order you expect players to get drafted in.

Do you ever release your personal ranking of players? I feel silly, because for years I've referenced that and been brimming with excitement when I see us take players that are drafted high on your board.

Yeah Dog has several boards he publishes. His personal ranking was his top 50 and Arik came in at 49.

Originally posted by fortyninerglory:
Yeah Dog has several boards he publishes. His personal ranking was his top 50 and Arik came in at 49.

Thanks, I found the link!

Draft was made by a GM with a ton of job security.

Maddog you nailed it. This draft epitomized Baalke's hubris. It's one thing to "stick to your board" but it's another to not recognize full value for your picks - I thought there were numerous reaches and multiple instances when the 49ers could have traded back a full round (if not further) to get their guys - namely Tartt, Bell and Pinion.

I'm not going to give you my full rundown of why I hate the Armstead pick b/c I've already done that multiple times, but just look at this comparison below:

6'6" 294lbs 33.5 inch arms, 5.03 40, 30 inch vert, 111 broad, 7.20 3 cone, 4.19 20 shuttle, 8.5 sacks and 15.0 tackles for a loss
6'7" 292lbs 33 inch arms, 5.10 40, 34 inch vert, 117 broad, 7.57 3 cone, 4.53 20 shuttle, 2.5 sacks and 4.5 tackles for a loss

One is a mid 1st rounder the other is a mid 3rd rounder. One has a motor that runs non-stop, the other has his heart questioned. Can you guys which player is which?

Yes, the 1st one is Henry Anderson from Stanford who is the same size as Armstead but with longer arms and blew away Armstead in every drill at the combine. Not only that, he was 1st team all Pac-12 and actually produced. Can anyone please explain to me how Armstead went about 60 picks ahead of Anderson?

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Tartt is a really nice college player who may end up being a starter down the road (2-3 years) in the NFL. Had a solid Senior Bowl week, and has good coverage skills. Once again, nice player. WIth Bethea at SS, Tartt is riding pine for at least one year. We might see him in some sub-packages, but he might not hit the field barely at all in 2015. Bethea is signed through 2017, with pretty cap friendly numbers for a Pro-Bowler: 3 million, 4.5 million, 5.25 million. So, we added the fourth safety on our depth chart for a mid-second rounder. I don't get it.

Surprised you don't like this one more. Tartt was the #1 sleeper on NFL Draft Countdown's list (http://www.draftcountdown.com/Rankings/SLEEPERS.php) and was given a round 2/3 grade.

I thought -- looking at Spotrac (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/antoine-bethea/) -- that Bethea's numbers actually broke down like this:
2015 - $4.75M cap hit
2016 - $6.25M hit ($3.75M savings if cut)
2017 - $7M hit ($5.75M savings if cut)

I thought when he signed that it looked like, for all intents and purposes, a 2-year contract. Bethea turns 31 in July, so it seems unlikely that we'll be paying a 32 and 33-year-old safety that kind of money.

Originally posted by fryet:
My understanding is that the player played all positions on the line - his latest was center. Most likely the 49ers would have started him as a guard in their OL, if they had drafted him.

yeah, but according to my understanding Center is the position where he is projected to be an All-Pro whereas OT is just mid-round.
tbh, I've never heard that he played at Guard. I think he switched from OT to Center immediately.

I thought TB could have done a lot better. I agree that there may not be much impact at all for this year, from this class.

He has his board and he goes after those guys, regardless if they could be selected a little later. So there is always the value conversation with him.

AA...a lot will ride on how he turns out. I'm not really a fan, but I think his floor and ceiling are a lot closer together than people think. He might not bust, but I'm not sure he's ever going to be a star, either.

Tartt- they must be worried about Reid and all the concussions. Good player but maybe he would have been available later.

Harold - you can never have enough guys that can rush the passer and I think this signals the end of Lemonier.

Bell-dozer - this seemed way early for him to get selected. There are some folks that will get another year to prove themselves at TE.

Davis - I wish they had taken a back earlier, but some of these guys started coming off the board before everyone predicted.

Smelter - love this pick and will get to play after Boldin leaves. Gotta like picking up Dres as a FA too.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

My grade: D (In this grade, I don't take additional future picks, nor undrafted free agents, into account. I only base it upon the players selected at their slots).

My draft when the Niners were on the clock (would have loved to have picked up Ty Lockett, Henry Anderson, David Parry along the way, but it is what it is).

1st Cameron Erving C
2nd Jaelen Strong WR
3rd Carl Davis DE
4th Jay Ajayi RB
4th Martrell Spaight ILB
4th Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB
5th Tre McBride WR
6th Joey Mbu NT
7th BJ Finney C/G
7th Anthony Harris SS

Appreciate the honesty and how you stick to your board and personnel rankings and value grades...appreciate all the work you do for us all in here MD!

Now, let's look at it from Baalke's perspective based on BPA and how it fits Team Needs & Scheme:
1 (15/15) DE Arik Armstead - Traded back to 17 and acquired 4 (18/117) in 2015 and Charger's 5th in 2016 - Like Baalke alluded too, it's rare to find a 3-4 4-tech DE let alone one that is rated so highly and one that has such a high ceiling (think Richard Seymour or Calais Campbell). Baalke knows going into this pick that we've already got the best DL coaches on the planet. It was either AA or Danny Shelton here IMHO. It's MUCH harder to find this player vs. a dominant 2-gap NT like Wilfork. And in our defense NT only plays 40% of the snaps.
2 (14/46) SS/ILB Jaquiski Tartt - Our dime and nickel backs (like Fangio noted last year referring to Ward as a "starter") play 60% of the snaps vs. our NT who plays 40%. Tartt is another "starter" and will not only play the role of Kam Chancellor in our defense but allow us to save Bowman's knee and/or push Wilhoite to the bench in coverage packages essentially making us much stronger "down the middle" of the field as Baalke alluded too.
3 (15/79) OLB Eli Harold - Like Baalke said, "You can never have too many pass rushers." Enough said. Jason Tarver is going to love developing this hard worker. He'll also get to learn from his idol in Aldon Smith and behind Brooks and Lynch as well.
4 (14/114) To Buffalo for Stevie Johnson
4 (18/117) From San Diego TE Blake Bell - We've been b***hing about our RedZone play the entire HaRoman era. Now we get a 6'6" TE with a tremendous catching radius, huge hands, even bigger upside and who can also play some QB if needed (Wildcat? Read Option?). Sparano is going to love developing this kid.
4 (27/127) From Denver RB Mike Davis - Not sure how anyone can not like this pick. Baalke likes to have like-players at each spot on the roster. RB! he's now got Hyde - Davis and RB2 Bush - Hunter
4 (33/132) Compensatory WR DeAndre Smelter - If we couldn't get that X WR at the 2nd round (ala DGB) you had to instantly start thinking "developmental rounds" which is why Baalke had met with Darren Waller & Vince Mayle late. We got the best of the 3 IMHO and like with all the other players, he has time to work into a starting role learning from one of the best veterans in the game. Finally, he gets to learn from a real WR coach in Adam Henry.
5 (15/151) - Traded back to the 5th (29/165) and acquired the Colt's 7th (27/244)
5 (29/165) P/PK Bradley Pinion 6 (14/189) T Ian Silberman - What, you guys weren't enamored with Martin or Pears as one of our swing-T's? Here you go. Chris Foerster & Eric Wolford are going to love developing this kid.
7 (27/244) From Indianapolis G Trenton Brown - Well hello to our next "pulling G." A 350-360 pound man who can dunk? Um yeah...again...Chris Foerster & Eric Wolford are going to love developing this kid and he provides additional competition and push at the G positions.
7 (29/246) From Indianapolis - Traded for Dallas' 6th in 2016
7 (37/254) Compensatory WR 'Busta' Anderson - IMHO this guy looks like T.O. and I have a sense we're going to have him compete at the X WR position as well along with Issac Blakeney & DeAndre Smelter

I like your draft too so let's look at how they fit:
1st Cameron Erving C - Taking this pick would be futile given we've been developing Kilgore for years, we took the best C in the draft last year in Marcus Martin and Dillon Farrell has developed very nicely as well. Erving has great potential to start but is it significantly more than M.Martin or Kilgore to take as your first pick in the draft? That's a solid argument to be discussed.
2nd Jaelen Strong WR - We needed an X WR badly (big-bodied outside playmaker who's extremely physical and can win 1on1's in the air and out-muscle the bigger press CB's in the game and take bit hits in the middle of the field and in traffic) to train behind Boldin as his successor for 2016. If he developed very quickly throughout the year he could even push Boldin inside to the slot with T.Smith outside. That would be ideal and a dynamic receiving threat of all 3 unique skill positions needed at the WR position. I think that guy last year was Kelvin Benjamin who went 1 pick ahead of us and this year it was DGB a few picks ahead of us. 3rd Carl Davis DE - Awesome pick here. he can play the 1-gap NT position and some DE. Sort of a tweener in our 3-4 though and not as ideal a fit as AA at DE or Shelton/Goldman as a 2-gap NT. That said, it sounds like we may stick to 1-gapping our NT's and remain 2-gapping with our DE's.
4th Jay Ajayi RB - Slid to the 5th d/t medical issues...that would go over well with our fan base after Marcus Lattimore.
4th Martrell Spaight ILB - We're currently working on a long-term contract for Michael Wilhoite and we have plenty of proven veteran depth at this spot. We also have May 12th FA pickups if we're not feeling great about Bowman's health. It's highly unlikely he'd crack MW as a starter and Jaquiski Tartt already fills that dime/nickel ILB/SS role anyhow now...the most he'd see is ST's of which, Tartt is manic about on coverage units as well. Also, ILB is the one position you can plug-n-play and get very good production from thanks to our front 7 (DL and OLB rotation)
4th Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB - Baalke publicly has stated 100 times now that he wants his CB's to be at least 5'11"...at least. He may make an exception for a shorter ILB but after Ward last year against Chicago, not again.
5th Tre McBride WR - He's a nice Z WR but we already have T.Smith and J.Simpson and brought in a bunch of other speedsters. Value pick but not team need per se. He would be an excellent KR but we have plenty of competition there as well.
6th Joey Mbu NT - I like this value pick but again, what's more important, a RZ threat or a 4th NT on the team?
7th BJ Finney C/G - Nothing wrong with this pick.
7th Anthony Harris SS - Nothing wrong with this pick either.

Great pix MD, but seriously man? How could you reasonably go the entire draft wo picking up a punter???

Shows what you know...