I get a chance to follow the players I selected in my version of the draft. Here is what I have seen so far:
Erving is a really good player, but stuck behind one of the best lines in the NFL. He played two positions in college, left tackle and center, currently occupied by Joe Thomas and Alex Mack. Mack is a free agent after this year, and will probably move on. When he went down last year, the team imploded. Hence, the pick. The Browns are really high on him. In their last preseason game, he was a healthy scratch, along with the starting five, and the beat writers really think he has a bright future. Erving would be a starter on the Niners OL.
Strong has been a horrific bust pick so far. He came in to rookie camp overweight, and although he arrived to training camp in shape, he simply did not show enough to pass some of the vets on offense. This year is going to be a wash for him, but it will be for most of the rookie WR class, which has not measured up to the last couple classes (especially last year's stud group). I should have stuck to my guns, and kept Tyler Lockett as the fourth best WR in this class. Although I had Lockett the 17th best player on my board on draft day, I did leap him with Strong late in the process. Oh, well. We will have to see if Strong can turn it on. He will get his opportunity with the Texans.
Carl Davis has been REALLY, REALLY good for the Ravens this draft. In fact, after Week 2 of the season, he graded out as the 7th best rookie in the 2015 draft. I am not sure his grade for Week 3, but he was a monster in the preseason, and the team loves him. He takes nearly every snap in the base defense, and comes off the field during most passing downs. The Ravens beat writers love the kid. He is first round talent, and productivity so far, but fell to the third round.
Ajayi is out for the year with injury. Up and down offseason. Bitterly disappointing early, and then looked very good in preseason game before going down.
Spaight is out for the year with injury.Had solid preseason (started one game). Concussion ended year. Sucks.
Ekpre-Olomu is out for the year with injury.(Stash pick)
McBride is on the practice squad. (Titans WR roster is fair deep. Just didn't show enough).
Mbu is on the practice squad. (The team really liked him, but very deep DT pool for the Falcons).
Finney would probably have made the Steelers roster (he had a really solid preseason and was a second teamer) but got injured in the last series of the preseason, and was cut. Bad timing.
Harris is on the practice squad. (Not going to start over Harrison Smith).
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Notes: Been very happy to see the development of Tyrod Taylor with the Bills. He was my fifth rounder in the 2011 NFL Draft (the same draft as Kaepernick). I always thought he would turn out to be a good player in the right system, and he was never going to get his shot behind Flacco. He might flame out at any moment, but for now, was a great 5th round value.
Notes: Really happy for the Stanford DL duo of David Parry and Henry Anderson. I graded Anderson as a second round prospect, above Armstead, and think he has a really bright NFL career. He just posted a 1.1 grade for Week 3, and continues to look like a first round quality pick. Parry also has been able to transition well. I think both will progress as the year goes along.
Wouldn't Tyler Lockett look good on this team. He scores a TD on special teams about every other week, and he is getting play at WR, too. Trust your judgment when watching college football. Lockett was almost always the best player on the field in every college football game. That usually transitions to success in the NFL.
From that disastrous 2012 NFL draft for the Niners, I have a few guys still looking great. It certainly was
not Peter Konz, who has been a bust. Mo Sanu has been a really solid contributor as the number two/three WR for the Bengals. But, the best of the group has been Malik Jackson, who I grabbed in the 5th round. Really terrific talent for the Broncos. Hoping to see if Vick Ballard can shake off injuries and make another run next year for the Colts or another team. Brandon Thompson is rotational DT for the Bengals. Nothing compared to my 2011 draft with Watt, Hudson, T. Taylor, but still some guys making major contributions.
My top three players in this draft have fared this way, thus far:
1. Vic Beasley- going to be a monster for the Falcons. Simply too fast for LT's to win against. He has to gain strength, but the sky is the limit for him. Matched up against two very good LT's this year in Peters and Smith. Will get some numbers against less elite LT's.
2. Kevin White- On the PUP list. Can't wait to see what he can do once healthy. In the end, I see him as the Julio Jones to the AJ Green, where Jones eventually leapfrogs a stud in Green as the best from the class.
3. Amari Cooper- A no-brainer. Such a great pro already. Could easily emerge as the best player from this class. Impact right away. Got to love the direction of the Raiders, even though I hate the team. Smart picks in Carr, Mack (my number one best player in the 2014 draft), and Cooper already turning around the franchise.
I was dead-on with my analysis of Washington G Brandon Scherff. Watched a ton of games with him last year, and noted there was no way he could be a tackle in this league. Guard was always home for him. The Redskins seemed surprised he couldn't handle OT duties, so they shifted him inside. Not sure why they didn't see the same things I saw in college games.
Crapped by pants on the evaluation of Cards' OT DJ Humphries, who I had as the best OT in this draft. Had every opportunity to start at RT this year, his laziness has him benched. Fire in the belly is never overrated. Maybe he can turn it around.
Had Mariota as the best QB from this class, and Winston outside my top 50 picks. I like what I see from Mariota, and probably should have graded him higher going into the draft. He looks like a keeper so far. Meanwhile. Winston struggled against the Texans, who didn't record a sack, and didn't hit him that much (someone has to step up and help JJ, who is doubled on nearly every down).
In the end, the draft is part science, part hunch, and part witchcraft. GMs get great praise one day, and then are handed walking papers a few years later (hint: Baalke). The brightest minds flame out, and that is maybe the beauty of it: The unpredictable nature, the elusiveness to become proficient at player analysis.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Sep 29, 2015 at 3:15 AM ]
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But the main point I was trying to make, actually two, is that I feel Baalke is much better at this than I am and it's way too early to judge this team or any players. 