MadDog49er Draft Analysis and Grade for 2015 NFL Draft

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Re-watched about 5 games on Davis and 4 games on Cobb from last year, and re-affirmed what I thought before the draft-

Both guys have very good hands. Can catch the ball out of the backfield. USC lined Davis out as a WR on some plays, in a HB formation, and in the slot once. Davis is a solid pass protector, one of the better ones in the draft. Cobb is not as strong in that area. Davis has good straightline speed once he gets going North-South, and solid vision. He is excellent in the open field. The problem I have stated all along- his hips are so stiff- there is no ability to shake and make people miss tackles. He simply cannot plant, cut, and change directions. If people are around him, he is going down. That simply is not going to cut it in the NFL. You have to be elusive, have some ability to wiggle. Cobb can drop his hips, make sharp cuts, swivel, and avoid tacklers.

I just do not think that picking of Mike Davis was, as you claimed, a "head scratcher."

You acknowledge that Davis has very good hands, may be the best pass blocker in the draft, and is excellent in the open field.

Although, I am not sure how a player who "has no ability to shake and make people miss," who "simply cannot plant, cut, and change directions", and "if people are around him, he is going down" can be considered excellent in the open field.

I have no problem with David Cobb. I think that he might be able to beat out Bishop Sanky. Tennessee had a very poor running game last year and they lost Leon Washington, RB, and Jackie Battle, FB, in free agency and did not pick up their replacements in free agency.

Although, I am not sure why the Titans picked FB David Fowler almost a full-round before they took David Cobb.

Anyway, in my estimation, the Davis pick and the signing of Reggie Bush seems to indicate that 49ers plan on using our running backs more in the passing game.
At least, I hope that it indicates that.

If that proves to be true, there is a good chance that Mike Davis will prove to be a very solid pick.

A look at how Davis and Cobb did in meeting the running back targets for the Combine.

I used their best times from the combine and their pro days to build this table.

Originally posted by buck:

A look at how Davis and Cobb did in meeting the running back targets for the Combine.

I used their best times from the combine and their pro days to build this table.

That's one way of looking at it. You could also say Davis had an edge in the 40 and shuttle while Cobb had an edge in the vertical and broad jump. I don't think the 40 should be broken up into 3 targets because if you miss one with a poor start, you're likely to miss all of them.

It's all arbitrary anyways so I guess it doesn't matter, but different RB types (and sizes) should have different targets. Davis was 211 at his pro day while Cobb was 227 at the combine.

And Pro Days and Combine 40 times are by no means interchangeable. Combine times are partially electronically timed while pro day times are purely hand-timed which makes a difference of about 0.1-0.12 seconds. There are other different conditions that could throw the times off even more (or less). Davis missed his 40 target at the combine and if his 40 was timed using the same method, he likely would have missed his target again at his pro day.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Originally posted by buck:
A look at how Davis and Cobb did in meeting the running back targets for the Combine.

I used their best times from the combine and their pro days to build this table.

That's one way of looking at it. You could also say Davis had an edge in the 40 and shuttle while Cobb had an edge in the vertical and broad jump. I don't think the 40 should be broken up into 3 targets because if you miss one with a poor start, you're likely to miss all of them.

It's all arbitrary anyways so I guess it doesn't matter, but different RB types (and sizes) should have different targets. Davis was 211 at his pro day while Cobb was 227 at the combine.

And Pro Days and Combine 40 times are by no means interchangeable. Combine times are partially electronically timed while pro day times are purely hand-timed which makes a difference of about 0.1-0.12 seconds. There are other different conditions that could throw the times off even more (or less). Davis missed his 40 target at the combine and if his 40 was timed using the same method, he likely would have missed his target again at his pro day.

I understand that combine and pro day times are not interchangeable. For what it is worth, Bucky Brooks, who used to be a pro scout, has said that the teams use the best times from the combine and pro days when evaluating players. .

I just decided to use the best times that Cobb and Davis put up.

Both 40 times in the chart are from their pro days and they both did better at their pro days.

There are metrics that attempt to take into consideration weight or height and weight.

2015 NFL Draft grades: Steelers, Colts among underachievers

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000491823/article/2015-nfl-draft-grades-steelers-colts-among-underachievers

The highest grades given to any of these underachievers was a C+.

Apparently, the 49ers did better than a C+

But, again I would argue that it is way too early to grade the 2015 draft and its players.

Over the years, I've learned that while the metrics are helpful, in the end they simply don't consistently give you any conclusive evidence to support that one player will be better than the other.

Ultimately, it comes down to what you seeing on the field. Davis and Cobb may both turn out to be good pros, but Cobb right now is the most likely to get their shot the soonest because Sankey didn't exactly explode in his first year. In 2016, Bush and Hunters' contracts are up. Davis will more likely get his shot to be the one-two punch with Hyde -- competing along with Jarrad Hayne, if he's still here, plus another rookie RB that I am certain we will draft (see the pattern? )

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Over the years, I've learned that while the metrics are helpful, in the end they simply don't consistently give you any conclusive evidence to support that one player will be better than the other.

Ultimately, it comes down to what you seeing on the field. Davis and Cobb may both turn out to be good pros, but Cobb right now is the most likely to get their shot the soonest because Sankey didn't exactly explode in his first year. In 2016, Bush and Hunters' contracts are up. Davis will more likely get his shot to be the one-two punch with Hyde -- competing along with Jarrad Hayne, if he's still here, plus another rookie RB that I am certain we will draft (see the pattern? )

True. Metrics are only a tool. But, what we see on the field does not tell the whole story either. We have to acknowledge that it is easy to see exactly what we want to see.

Intangibles are hard to measure or see, and they might be the most important thing.

Cobb played in an open air stadium in Minneapolis, and the winters there are distressingly cold, cold enough to freeze hell. I do not think anyone plays in that weather without having a great deal of desire.

I agree that Cobb is in a better situation to show what he can do in the coming year, and I hope that Cobb wins the starting job.

I really have nothing against Cobb.

I just do not think that Mike Davis was a bad pick, and I hope that he turns out to be an excellent pick.

And I really want the 49ers to use him and our other backs in the passing game.

.

Mike Davis was my favorite pick of this draft, he's a Frank Gore clone only he doesn't posses the vision Franky G has. I think Davis will get his shot sooner than later, both Bush and Hunter have been hit with the injury bug and aren't guaranteed to last the year.

Cameron Erving probably would be starting for us, lol

Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:

Cameron Erving probably would be starting for us, lol

Perhaps. Of course if he was he'd be struggling and Baalke would get blasted for drafting a bust. Damned if ya draft them, damned if ya don't.

Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:

Cameron Erving probably would be starting for us, lol

This is true. But he likely would be getting blown up like he is in Cleveland right now. The Web one would be up in arms about another Baalke bust. Thus far Armstead is looking like the right decision.

Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
Cameron Erving probably would be starting for us, lol

His whole draft looks pretty sweet.

Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
Cameron Erving probably would be starting for us, lol

On that note, we could have just picked up La'el Collins as a FA like Dallas did...o-line starter for free.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

MadDog--I liked most of the guys on your list but in retrospect are they less than expected? (too early to tell, but?)

1st Cameron Erving C--2nd string--Browns
2nd Jaelen Strong WR--not listed on depth chart--Texans
3rd Carl Davis DE--2nd string--Ravens
4th Jay Ajayi RB--injured--Dolphins
4th Martrell Spaight ILB--3rd string--Redskins
4th Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB--not listed on depth chart--Browns
5th Tre McBride WR--not listed on depth chart--Titans
6th Joey Mbu NT--not listed on depth chart--Falcons
7th BJ Finney C/G--not listed on depth chart--Steelers
7th Anthony Harris SS--3rd string--Vikings
Edit: Irving and Davis would be intersting on the niners, but

Compare to niners picks--
1st Armstead DL--26 plays, 2 QB hits, rotational backup
2nd Tartt SS--31 plays in 2 games, one sack, rotational player
3rd Harold OLB--13 plays
4th Bell TE--18 plays
4th Davis RB--42 plays
4th Smelter--injured
5th Pinion--starer
6th Silberman--nada
7th Brown--nada
7th Anderson--injured

Originally posted by dtg_9er:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

MadDog--I liked most of the guys on your list but in retrospect are they less than expected? (too early to tell, but?)

1st Cameron Erving C--2nd string--Browns
2nd Jaelen Strong WR--not listed on depth chart--Texans
3rd Carl Davis DE--2nd string--Ravens
4th Jay Ajayi RB--injured--Dolphins
4th Martrell Spaight ILB--3rd string--Redskins
4th Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB--not listed on depth chart--Browns
5th Tre McBride WR--not listed on depth chart--Titans
6th Joey Mbu NT--not listed on depth chart--Falcons
7th BJ Finney C/G--not listed on depth chart--Steelers
7th Anthony Harris SS--3rd string--Vikings
Edit: Irving and Davis would be intersting on the niners, but

Compare to niners picks--
1st Armstead DL--26 plays, 2 QB hits, rotational backup
2nd Tartt SS--31 plays in 2 games, one sack, rotational player
3rd Harold OLB--13 plays
4th Bell TE--18 plays
4th Davis RB--42 plays
4th Smelter--injured
5th Pinion--starer
6th Silberman--nada
7th Brown--nada
7th Anderson--injured

Carl Davis and Erving have looked pretty good so far