Why WR? Trade up

Originally posted by hohbie:
With that said the first receiver taken isnt always the best. I am looking at the past drafts for funsies and here is what I think. I only use 1st round receivers when deciding if they are busts.

2014 1st: Sammie Watkins (#4 Bills)
2014 Best: Odell Beckham (#12 Giants)
-Cant really tell who will be the best here yet, but that's my opinion right now.
-Honorable mentions: Evans (#7), Cooks (#20), Benjamin (#28), Matthews (#42) all look good so far.
-Busts: None so far

2013 1st: Tavon Austin (#8 Rams)
2013 Best: Keenan Allen (#76 Chargers)
-Honorable mentions: Not really anyone blowing people away yet. Hopkins (#27), Patterson (#29) showed flashes but nothing great yet.
-Busts: I think Austin has been a bust but still has a chance.

2012 1st: Justin Blackmon (#5 Jaguars)
2012 Best: Alshon Jeffrey (#45 Bears)
-Honorable mentions: TY Hilton (#92), Floyd (#13)
-Busts: Blackmon, Jenkins (#30)

2011 1st: AJ Green (#4 Bengals)
2011 Best: AJ Green (#4 Bengals)
-Honorable mentions: Julio Jones (#6), Torrey Smith (#58), Randall Cobb (#64),
-Busts: Jonathon Baldwin (#26)

2010 1st: Demaryius Thomas (#22 Broncos)
2010 Best: Dez Bryant (#24 Cowboys)
-Honorable mention: Thomas, Decker (#87), Antonio Brown (#195), Emmanuel Sanders (#82)
-Busts: None

2009 1st: Darrius Heyward Bey (#7 Raiders)
2009 Best: Jeremy Maclin (#19 Eagles) or Julian Edelman (#232 Patriots)
-Honorable mentions: Crabtree (#10), Wallace (#84), Harvin (#22)
-Busts: Nicks (#29), Britt (#30)

2008 1st: Donnie Avery (#33 Rams)
2008 Best: Jordy Nelson (#36 Packers)
-Honorable mentions: Desean Jackson (#49)
-Busts: No 1st round receivers selected

2007 1st: Calvin Johnson (#2 Lions)
2007 Best: Calvin Johnson (#2 Lions)
-Honorable mentions: Bowe (#23)
-Busts: Ginn (#9), Meachem (#23), Davis (#30), Gonzalez (#32)

2006 1st: Santonio Holmes (#25 Steelers)
2006 Best: Brandon Marshall (#119 Broncos)
-Honorable mentions: Marques Colston (#252)
-Busts: None

2005 1st: Braylon Edwards (#3 Browns)
2005 Best: Roddy White (#27 Falcons)
-Honorable mentions: Vincent Jackson (#61)
-Busts: Williamson (#7), Williams (#10), Jones (#21), Clayton (#22)

2004 1st: Larry Fitzgerald (#3 Cardinals)
2004 Best: Larry Fitzgerald (#3 Cardinals)
-Honorable mentions: None really
-Busts: Williams (#7), Williams (#9), Woods (#31)

After looking at this maybe I dont want Cooper as much. Haha

You need to look at who's throwing the ball to those WRs as well Kyle Orton or Eli,Bradford/Hill or Rivers,Whoever was Jags QB and Cutler,Orton/Tebow or Romo (Thomas was hurt as well) etc...

NYniner put it down! Hahaha.

Originally posted by daragon:
NYniner put it down! Hahaha.

HA were are both on the WR early bandwagon

Oh also I think this kid is busting his butt to make the team this year...I wouldn't be surprise to see him active on game days.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/keith-reaser?id=2543582 runs a 4.3 too

https://instagram.com/p/0vR0BXhLCy/?taken-by=keithreaser3

Originally posted by NYniner85:
1st Smith is not a #1 WR and has had over 50 catches once in his career (he was 2nd in the league in dropped balls). He's a deep-threat (best in the game) and is a solid #2. They will not be paying a 36 yr old Boldin $6+ million next season and most likely we move on from him, so who does that leave us with? Smith,Patton,Ellington....that's a horrible WR corp that no team's defense will be worried about. They will continue to stack the box, our o-line will have to pass-protect longer (more sacks),and the defense will be on the field more because we STILL can't convert 3rd-down plays.

SF has not been in a position to grab a great play maker at WR for the past couple seasons, that's why everyone is talking about it. Baalke has drafted a WR once in the first 3 rounds since being the GM, thus not really worrying about the position in the draft...that needs to change. I think we can safely say that Kap is not a QB (at this point) that makes WRs better,but good WRs make him better.

Also what has Baalke been great at drafting? The positions that you think we need help at CB,DL,LB etc.....he has found value for those positions multiple times, please tell me what he's found for WRs in the draft?? Our two starting WRs weren't even drafted by SF lol.

I'm sooooo tired of hearing "oh this draft is deep at WR" let's wait until the later rounds because that's worked out so many times smh....when's the last time we developed a WR from the later rounds??

Why do you think all of the current CBs on the roster are just depth players?? Reser/Acker haven't even played yet because of injury and DJ looked promising. Why can't Martin, Pears, Looney, or Thomas take over the one spot we have open on the line? Thomas was drafted to take Iupati's spot, Baalke even stated that. I don't want our 3rd round lineman sitting the bench or possibly a rookie at 15....that is counterproductive.

Move up for a play maker that can help our o-line,running game, and Kap! I'd rather have a top WR on a rookie contract than a OG on a rookie contract as well.

This makes a lot of sense to me. It really does, particularly given that Boldin won't be with the team much longer. I just don't totally understand the move to bring in a FA WR if it isn't to mitigate a need. As I said... I can see drafting a top WR if it falls to them, but I gotta think that Baalke is targeting guys... [and I don't think it's Armstead]. I see the team pounding the rock again this year... more or less balanced but a run first team. Replacing Iupati does make some sense and I've not a ton of faith in Martin, Pears, Looney, or Thomas. We'll see in a couple of days... but if one thing was certain last year... Receivers couldn't help the offense when Kaep was being sacked left, right and center. Maybe he's be better throwing to guys that can get open (Cooper and White seem like those guys)... but I still think they will be too pricey (top 7 picks). Not many of the most productive WRs in the league were 1st rounders. Of the top 15 receivers last year only 5 were 1st rounders (Thomas, Maclin, Beckham, Hopkins, Johnson)... and of those only 2 were top 15 - Beckham Jr. and Johnson. I just don't think any receiver is going to put up big number with the way the team is built (Defense first, pound the rock). If that's how you approach your game plan then you kinda gotta load up that way too.

Originally posted by Micky6:
This makes a lot of sense to me. It really does, particularly given that Boldin won't be with the team much longer. I just don't totally understand the move to bring in a FA WR if it isn't to mitigate a need. As I said... I can see drafting a top WR if it falls to them, but I gotta think that Baalke is targeting guys... [and I don't think it's Armstead]. I see the team pounding the rock again this year... more or less balanced but a run first team. Replacing Iupati does make some sense and I've not a ton of faith in Martin, Pears, Looney, or Thomas. We'll see in a couple of days... but if one thing was certain last year... Receivers couldn't help the offense when Kaep was being sacked left, right and center. Maybe he's be better throwing to guys that can get open (Cooper and White seem like those guys)... but I still think they will be too pricey (top 7 picks). Not many of the most productive WRs in the league were 1st rounders. Of the top 15 receivers last year only 5 were 1st rounders (Thomas, Maclin, Beckham, Hopkins, Johnson)... and of those only 2 were top 15 - Beckham Jr. and Johnson. I just don't think any receiver is going to put up big number with the way the team is built (Defense first, pound the rock). If that's how you approach your game plan then you kinda gotta load up that way too.

Those WRs last year didn't get any separation and the play-call was down right awful. Joe Staley even stated that. There was zero adjustments based on injuries. The o-line doesn't lack talent just needs to get healthy.

Well considering there are only 32 picks in the 1st, I would expect there to be more productive WRs coming out of the other 6 rounds How about you look at how many bust in the 1st vs the field? I think they want to more balanced on offense, this is a passing league and the rules even encourage it. Baalke knows passing leads to running the ball, even if you're not throwing the ball 35+ plus times a game a great WR takes pressure off the running game.

We should know how Baalke feels about this squad in a couple days

Originally posted by genus49:
To me it makes more sense to trade down.

Would love Cooper or White but don't think its worth trading up into top 5/10 with all the other needs we have.

This was a tough offseason and while we're still a pretty talented football team we're not as "stacked" as we were before.

If you think about it after comings/goings we lost

1 starting DE
1 starting ILB(though technically we lost 2 :()
1 starting CB

We have questions at ILB depth now
We have questions at corner
We have questions at OG
We can use a replacement for Anquan

That's not even taking into consideration just the team going BPA to stay ahead of other needs.

Every team has questions at certain positions. At 15, I don't think there is a prospect that is truly "can't miss". You take the BPA and hope for the best. But there are a few "can't miss" players in this draft and Cooper and White are two of them. If one of them falls to No. 5, I think you make the trade with Washington and grab him - our 1st, 2nd, and Vernon Davis. Washington gets the OL guy they need at 15, adds a McLoughan guy in Davis, and a 2nd rounder. No brainer for both teams.

Originally posted by midrdan:

Originally posted by genus49:

To me it makes more sense to trade down.

Would love Cooper or White but don't think its worth trading up into top 5/10 with all the other needs we have.

This was a tough offseason and while we're still a pretty talented football team we're not as "stacked" as we were before.

If you think about it after comings/goings we lost

1 starting DE
1 starting ILB(though technically we lost 2 :()
1 starting CB

We have questions at ILB depth now
We have questions at corner
We have questions at OG
We can use a replacement for Anquan

That's not even taking into consideration just the team going BPA to stay ahead of other needs.

Every team has questions at certain positions. At 15, I don't think there is a prospect that is truly "can't miss". You take the BPA and hope for the best. But there are a few "can't miss" players in this draft and Cooper and White are two of them. If one of them falls to No. 5, I think you make the trade with Washington and grab him - our 1st, 2nd, and Vernon Davis. Washington gets the OL guy they need at 15, adds a McLoughan guy in Davis, and a 2nd rounder. No brainer for both teams.

Davis isn't getting traded and isn't that valuable based on him being 30 and in a contract year. They have two good TEs currently in Washington. Swapping 1st and giving our 2nd and next years 2nd would probably do it.

Id probably only do it for cooper though. I wouldn't be surprised if the jags grab him either...I've lost all hope lol.

My thoughts:
1. Trade down if possible.

2. Armstead will slide in draft to late 1st early 2nd.

3. Niners offense hasn't been same sense Delanie Walker left. I think they go Funchess in 2nd for mismatch opportunities and a red zone target.

4. My first round projection is CB, Dline, or RB. Gurley is my sleeper 1st rounder. My other is Johnson or Jones (cb's)

Originally posted by genz22:

My thoughts:
1. Trade down if possible.

2. Armstead will slide in draft to late 1st early 2nd.

3. Niners offense hasn't been same sense Delanie Walker left. I think they go Funchess in 2nd for mismatch opportunities and a red zone target.

4. My first round projection is CB, Dline, or RB. Gurley is my sleeper 1st rounder. My other is Johnson or Jones (cb's)

Wouldn't touch funchess unless he's around in the 4th, no production in college, bad hands/route running,to slow to be a WR and can't block.

Walker could block and was faster than him...people forget how much moss helped the team even if he didn't catch a ton of balls he commanded safety help.

The way I see it is, how much failure can happen beore the managers of this team are booted? Baalke knows that the target is on his back now that Harbaugh is gone. He is going to draft to win now, not in a few years, but now. Because if his picks don't help keep us from a horrible season due to development, he's as good as gone. So I try to think of the draft in this way. Who can help us win now? If we had to play the Seahawks next week, do you want Arik Armstead on our team or DeVante Parker? Do you want Marcus Peters or Gurley? Who helps us beat teams now?

Originally posted by Micky6:
I'm not certain Cooper is a can't miss guy. Particularly given the type of offense the 9ers run. Kevin White looks more the part. Size, speed, hands, vision. Neither guy benefits the run game... at all. Remember Crabtree was considered a can't miss guy. Neither White nor Cooper produced even close to Crabtree (he had like 40+ TDs in two years!). You need a passing game that hits receivers on the fly to make use of either of those two guys. I still think the 9ers are better off targeting an impact guy. If one of those WR fell to them at 15... that's different. But I'd rather see them target a player they can get on the field.

This post bothered me. Cooper is as about as close to a can't miss guy as you will see coming out (other than Calvin Johnson). He's an elite athlete and an elite route runner who clearly works hard on his craft. There are 0 question marks with him. He had elite production in a run-heavy offense with a QB who is very inconsistent and looked horrible throwing at the combine.

If you want to compare him with Crabtree, keep in mind that Texas Tech threw for 6114 yards and 51 TD's and 5371 yards and 47 TD's in his 2 seasons there. Alabama threw for 3890 yards and 32 TD's this season, so Cooper accounted for almost half of their pass offense with 1727 yards and 16 TD's. He was going up against NFL prospects in the SEC, but continued to get open even though defenses knew to focus on him, especially in key situations.

Cooper is the same size as Watkins and is a similar athlete (better quickness, similar top speed - Cooper ran faster than the 4.42 official time at the combine, not quite as much explosiveness) while being a much more advanced route runner coming out. The only WR's who may have been better prospects coming out that hohbie listed are:
Larry Fitzgerald
Braylon Edwards (debatable)
Calvin Johnson
AJ Green
Julio Jones (if we're ignoring Jones' injury history)
Sammie Watkins (debatable)

Edwards is the only one who could be considered a bust, but I'm not sure he is one. He got stuck in terrible QB situations with the Browns and the Jets which couldn't have helped his development, but he still put up pretty good stats and had one really impressive year.

I'm all for trading up if we can get White/Cooper and only give up a 2nd and future 2nd/3rd round pick. And it's ridiculous to say that adding a #1 receiver won't benefit the run game at all. If it makes it harder for teams to stack 8 in the box against us and forces safeties to help out in coverage, that will benefit the run game. Improving at any position makes the entire offense better and there's room for improvement at WR.

Originally posted by Micky6:
Of the top 15 receivers last year only 5 were 1st rounders (Thomas, Maclin, Beckham, Hopkins, Johnson)... and of those only 2 were top 15 - Beckham Jr. and Johnson. I just don't think any receiver is going to put up big number with the way the team is built (Defense first, pound the rock).

That's not true. 7 of the top 15 WR's by receiving yards were 1st round picks and 3 were top 15 picks (Jones, Beckham Jr, and Johnson). AJ Green would have been top 15 again this year if he was healthy.

Top WR's in 2014 by receiving yards:
1. Antonio Brown - rd 6, pick 195
2. Demaryius Thomas - rd 1, pick 22
3. Julio Jones - rd 1, pick 6
4. Jordy Nelson - rd 2, pick 36
5. Emmanuel Sanders - rd 3, pick 82
6. T.Y. Hilton - rd 3, pick 92
7. Golden Tate - rd 2, pick 60
8. Dez Bryant - rd 1, pick 24
9. Jeremy Maclin - rd 1, pick 19
10. Odell Beckham Jr. - rd 1, pick 12
11. Randall Cobb - rd 2, pick 64
12. Deandre Hopkins - rd 1, pick 27
13. Desean Jackson - rd 2, pick 49
14. Alshon Jeffery - rd 2, pick 45
15. Calvin Johnson - rd 1, pick 2

Top WR's in 2014 by TD's:
1. Dez Bryant - rd 1, pick 24
2. Jordy Nelson - rd 2, pick 36
2(t). Antonio Brown - rd 6, pick 195
4. Randall Cobb - rd 2, pick 64
4(t). Odell Beckham Jr. - rd 1, pick 12
4(t). Mike Evans - rd. 1, pick 7
7. Demaryius Thomas - rd 1, pick 22
7(t). Torrey Smith - rd 2, pick 58
9. Jeremy Maclin - rd 1, pick 19
9(t). Mike Wallace - rd 3, pick 84
9(t). Alshon Jeffery - rd 2, pick 45
12. Emmanuel Sanders - rd 3, pick 82
12(t). Kelvin Benjamin - rd 1, pick 28
14. Brandon Marshall - rd 4, pick 119
14(t). Calvin Johnson - rd 1, pick 2
14(t). Terrence Williams - rd 3, pick 74
14(t). Jordan Matthews - rd 2, pick 42
14(t). Martavis Bryant - rd 4, pick 118

In my opinion, the top 6 WR's in the league right now are Megatron, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, and Demaryius Thomas. 5 of them were first round picks and 3 were top 6 picks (3 of 5 WR's taken in the top 6 picks since 2005 with the others being Justin Blackmon and Sammie Watkins). Jordy Nelson is a runner up but Aaron Rodgers deserves a lot of credit there. Josh Gordon and OBJ are up there too.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
That's not true. 7 of the top 15 WR's by receiving yards were 1st round picks and 3 were top 15 picks (Jones, Beckham Jr, and Johnson). AJ Green would have been top 15 again this year if he was healthy.

Top WR's in 2014 by receiving yards:
1. Antonio Brown - rd 6, pick 195
2. Demaryius Thomas - rd 1, pick 22
3. Julio Jones - rd 1, pick 6
4. Jordy Nelson - rd 2, pick 36
5. Emmanuel Sanders - rd 3, pick 82
6. T.Y. Hilton - rd 3, pick 92
7. Golden Tate - rd 2, pick 60
8. Dez Bryant - rd 1, pick 24
9. Jeremy Maclin - rd 1, pick 19
10. Odell Beckham Jr. - rd 1, pick 12
11. Randall Cobb - rd 2, pick 64
12. Deandre Hopkins - rd 1, pick 27
13. Desean Jackson - rd 2, pick 49
14. Alshon Jeffery - rd 2, pick 45
15. Calvin Johnson - rd 1, pick 2

Top WR's in 2014 by TD's:
1. Dez Bryant - rd 1, pick 24
2. Jordy Nelson - rd 2, pick 36
2(t). Antonio Brown - rd 6, pick 195
4. Randall Cobb - rd 2, pick 64
4(t). Odell Beckham Jr. - rd 1, pick 12
4(t). Mike Evans - rd. 1, pick 7
7. Demaryius Thomas - rd 1, pick 22
7(t). Torrey Smith - rd 2, pick 58
9. Jeremy Maclin - rd 1, pick 19
9(t). Mike Wallace - rd 3, pick 84
9(t). Alshon Jeffery - rd 2, pick 45
12. Emmanuel Sanders - rd 3, pick 82
12(t). Kelvin Benjamin - rd 1, pick 28
14. Brandon Marshall - rd 4, pick 119
14(t). Calvin Johnson - rd 1, pick 2
14(t). Terrence Williams - rd 3, pick 74
14(t). Jordan Matthews - rd 2, pick 42
14(t). Martavis Bryant - rd 4, pick 118

In my opinion, the top 6 WR's in the league right now are Megatron, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, and Demaryius Thomas. 5 of them were first round picks and 3 were top 6 picks (3 of 5 WR's taken in the top 6 picks since 2005 with the others being Justin Blackmon and Sammie Watkins). Jordy Nelson is a runner up but Aaron Rodgers deserves a lot of credit there. Josh Gordon and OBJ are up there too.

Sorry... I missed Jones. I stand corrected. Did that post on the fly... [I agree with your list of top 5] I'm actually rather surprised at that list because there are some great WRs not on that list. Then again it goes to show that the offense and QB really factor into production of WRs. I'm not convinced that many of the names would have put up big numbers in SF over the past several years. One thing is for sure... you gotta block if you wanna play in SF.

There is no question that over the past 4 years, the 9ers were one of the top teams. They didn't win the SB but they are a top team as they were consistently right there (last season aside). You might argue that with a top WR on one of those teams they might get over the hump... I agree with that. But I also say that without a top tier front 7 the 9ers don't even make the playoffs. Unless the team is going to completely change its identity I believe strongly that it must maintain a top flight front 7 and be very strong up the middle, or ensure that the team has a road pavers up front on O. That's why they have been competitive in the past and that's why Seattle has been dominant. They win in the trenches. I don't see either the defensive nor offensive front being as strong and I think they need to be addressed.

But... maybe they WR and the offense turns into a juggernaut... maybe Kaep turns into a QB that can hit receivers coming out of their breaks this year. Either way I don't see either of the TOP WRs going later than 7 or 8... and I doubt the 9ers trade up that far.

Originally posted by cjsmoove:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by hohbie:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

1st Smith is not a #1 WR and has had over 50 catches once in his career (he was 2nd in the league in dropped balls). He's a deep-threat (best in the game) and is a solid #2. They will not be paying a 36 yr old Boldin $6+ million next season and most likely we move on from him, so who does that leave us with? Smith,Patton,Ellington....that's a horrible WR corp that no team's defense will be worried about. They will continue to stack the box, our o-line will have to pass-protect longer (more sacks),and the defense will be on the field more because we STILL can't convert 3rd-down plays.

SF has not been in a position to grab a great play maker at WR for the past couple seasons, that's why everyone is talking about it. Baalke has drafted a WR once in the first 3 rounds since being the GM, thus not really worrying about the position in the draft...that needs to change. I think we can safely say that Kap is not a QB (at this point) that makes WRs better,but good WRs make him better.

Also what has Baalke been great at drafting? The positions that you think we need help at CB,DL,LB etc.....he has found value for those positions multiple times, please tell me what he's found for WRs in the draft?? Our two starting WRs weren't even drafted by SF lol.

I'm sooooo tired of hearing "oh this draft is deep at WR" let's wait until the later rounds because that's worked out so many times smh....when's the last time we developed a WR from the later rounds??

Why do you think all of the current CBs all the roster are depth players?? Reser/Acker haven't even played yet because of injury and DJ looked promising. Why can't Martin, Pears, Looney, or Thomas take over the one spot we have open on the line? Thomas was drafted to take Iupati's spot, Baalke even stated that. I don't want our 3rd round lineman sitting the bench or possibly a rookie at 15....that is counterproductive.

Move up for a play maker that can help our o-line,running game, and Kap! I'd rather have a top WR on a rookie contract than a OG on a rookie contract as well.

I 1000% agree with this part. Top WRs are not easy to get (contrary to what some draft gurus believe). They are pretty rare and I think we are looking for more than a serviceable guy.

I agree with this...+1

Exactly...