Todd McShays new mock draft

1
Jameis Winston
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)

COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Soph
HT: 6-3
WT: 231
POS: QB

Analysis: In deciding whether or not to use the No. 1 overall pick on Winston, the Bucs are going to have to evaluate him from an off-field perspective. Are they comfortable enough with his past behavior and his maturity level to make him the face of their franchise? At the moment it seems like the answer is yes, as co-chairman Joel Glazer said last week that he'd approve of either Winston or Marcus Mariota as the No. 1 overall pick. I think Mariota is still a possibility to be selected here, but purely from an on-field standpoint, I think Winston has a clear advantage. He is one of the best QB prospects to enter the league in the last 10 years in terms of the skills that translate to NFL success, including reading defenses, anticipating throws and delivering the ball accurately.

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2
Marcus Mariota
Tennessee Titans (2-14)

COLLEGE: Oregon
Class: Jr
HT: 6-3
WT: 222
POS: QB

Analysis: I think the Titans have three options: 1.) Take Mariota; 2.) Accept a trade offer to move back -- in my opinion, the Jets and Rams are likeliest to move up; 3.) Take Leonard Williams, who is the best defensive prospect in this draft and a great fit in the Titans' hybrid 3-4 scheme. The Titans could very well take Mariota, even though he doesn't fit the pocket passer prototype that head coach Ken Whisenhunt has had success with in the past, because Mariota would provide good mobility from the QB position behind an offensive line that really struggled last year. He has the potential to be a major upgrade over incumbent starter Zach Mettenberger, but he'll need time to be developed properly. He has rare athleticism from the position and elite intangibles, but he needs to improve his footwork and anticipation as a pocket passer to win consistently in the NFL.

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3
Amari Cooper
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)

COLLEGE: Alabama
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 211
POS: WR

Analysis: My guess is that most would have the Jags taking Leonard Williams here, and it could very well play out that way. But here's my thinking on this pick: Jacksonville was proactive in solidifying its defensive front this offseason by re-signing Ds Tyson Alualu and adding DT Jared Odrick. Could they still take Williams? Absolutely. He'd be a great fit in head coach Gus Bradley's scheme and would give the Jags a talented, versatile and deep rotation along the defensive front in a division that includes Andrew Luck. But they could also add a true No. 1 receiver for second-year QB Blake Bortles in the hopes of giving him the best chance to succeed. That's what Cooper is, as he is as polished a WR prospect as you'll see coming out of college, with tremendous savvy as a route-runner and very good separation skills, ball skills and big-play ability.

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4
Leonard Williams
Oakland Raiders (3-13)

COLLEGE: USC
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 302
POS: DE

Analysis: Kevin White is an option here, as wide receiver is the Raiders' top need and he's a big-play threat with an excellent combination of size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), straight-line speed (4.35-second 40-yard dash) and ball skills. Oakland needs to surround second-year QB Derek Carr with weapons. But defensive end is arguable the team's second-biggest need, and Williams is an excellent value here as the best all-around defensive player in the draft. He's an impact performer against the run and the pass, and has the versatility to play multiple roles along Oakland's defensive front.

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5
Dante Fowler Jr.
Washington Redskins (4-12)

COLLEGE: Florida
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 261
POS: DE

Analysis: The Redskins need a pass-rusher, with Brian Orakpo gone to the Titans, and they have several options to choose from here including Randy Gregory, Shane Ray and Vic Beasley. But new GM Scot McCloughan has always put emphasis on edge players with a little bit more size, and Fowler fits the bill as a more complete player (albeit slightly less explosive) than those other three guys, with a more filled-out frame and who can set the edge better against the run. He also has the athleticism to play 3-4 outside linebacker (ran an impressive 4.61 40-yard dash at the combine).

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6
Randy Gregory
New York Jets (4-12)

COLLEGE: Nebraska
Class: Jr
HT: 6-4
WT: 235
POS: OLB

Analysis: The Jets could take Kevin White in this scenario, as he'd bolster their receiving corps opposite Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, but Gregory is a really good fit here. I don't think the recent news of his positive marijuana test is going to affect his stock all that much. He'd had positive tests in college, so it was already a known issue with him, and he's the top pure edge rusher in this class. His lean frame and inability to put on and/or keep weight is a concern, but he's a terror coming off the edge with his explosive first-step quickness and length, and he's stronger than you'd expect for someone his size. In the Jets' talented front seven, he'd be set loose at a 3-4 outside linebacker to get after the quarterback, which is his strength.

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7
Kevin White
Chicago Bears (5-11)

COLLEGE: West Virginia
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 215
POS: WR

Analysis: White makes sense here as the best player available, but also from a need standpoint because he's an upgrade over Marquess Wilson opposite Alshon Jeffery. White is No. 4 on our board, ranking behind Cooper only because he isn't quite as polished or consistent. The fact that he only had one really good season at West Virginia will concern some. But he's a big-play threat with his size and speed, and he possesses the ability to separate when the ball is in the air and come down with high-degree-of-difficulty contested catches. He's also very competitive with the ball in his hands.

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8
Shane Ray
Atlanta Falcons (6-10)

COLLEGE: Missouri
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 245
POS: OLB

Analysis: The Falcons desperately need to upgrade their pass rush, and they'll have several edge rushers from which to choose in this scenario. I have them going with Ray over Vic Beasley, because while both have elite first-step quickness, Ray has better length and is more relentless. The fact that he doesn't show much of a power element to his game on tape is a bit concerning, but he fills a need here. One thing to keep in mind, if Dante Fowler Jr. is available at this spot: New Falcons head coach Dan Quinn coached Fowler while at Florida in 2012.

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9
Brandon Scherff
New York Giants (6-10)

COLLEGE: Iowa
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 319
POS: OT

Analysis: I'm sticking with Scherff to the Giants with the No. 9 pick. He's the ultimate tough guy, which makes him an ideal fit for a Tom Coughlin-coached team, and he could either take over the right tackle position for Justin Pugh (who has struggled some at tackle) or provide a major upgrade at left tackle, enabling Weston Richburg to play his natural position of center. Scherff lacks the ideal length to play the tackle position, and could wind up as an excellent guard instead, but I wouldn't be against him. The Giants also have needs at linebacker and in the defensive secondary that they could look to address in the later rounds.

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10
DeVante Parker
St. Louis Rams (6-10)

COLLEGE: Louisville
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 209
POS: WR

Analysis: I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the Rams trade up to draft Marcus Mariota. They have the young talent currently on their roster to help them sustain the loss of draft picks that would come with a big move up the board, and their apparent interest in Johnny Manziel last year seemed to be based on the appeal of adding a running element from the quarterback position -- which is something Mariota would provide to an even greater degree than Manziel would have. But we don't project trades in these mock drafts, so I'll have them address another need with a talented WR in Parker. Kenny Britt was re-signed to a two-year deal, and Brian Quick showed progress last year, but is either the long-term answer? Offensive line is the team's biggest need, but Andrus Peat isn't an elite finisher and wouldn't be a great fit for a Jeff Fisher-coached team, and I think they could find a guard or right tackle on Day 2.

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11
La'el Collins
Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

COLLEGE: LSU
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 305
POS: OT

Analysis: We've had the Vikings take Teddy Bridgewater's former go-to target at Louisville, DeVante Parker, at No. 11 previously, but he's off the board in this scenario and the trade for Mike Wallace lessens their need at wide receiver. Cornerback is another need area, and Michigan State's Trae Waynes would make sense, but they really need to upgrade their offensive line and Collins has the versatility to help at guard or tackle. He needs to improve some in pass protection but is a tough, high-character player who is very effective as a run-blocker with his massive frame and straight-line burst.

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12
Danny Shelton
Cleveland Browns (7-9)

COLLEGE: Washington
Class: Sr
HT: 6-2
WT: 339
POS: DT

Analysis: Outside of quarterback, which the Browns aren't going to be able to address here in this scenario, the team's biggest needs are at wide receiver, right tackle and nose tackle. Shelton is the No. 9 player on our board, so he's a value here, and there are good receiver and right tackle prospects to be had with the Browns' No. 19 pick. You always have to worry about consistency with a player Shelton's size (6-2, 339 pounds), but he has the potential to be a dominant force against the run and double-team magnet in the middle of Cleveland's defensive front. He can also push the pocket as a pass-rusher.

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13
Vic Beasley
New Orleans Saints (7-9)

COLLEGE: Clemson
Class: Sr
HT: 6-3
WT: 246
POS: OLB

Analysis: The Saints' biggest need areas are outside linebacker and offensive line, and they could also look at a cornerback, pass-catcher or nose tackle Danny Shelton, were he still on the board. I'll have them go with Beasley. I'm a little concerned by the fact that I don't see much power to his game when I study his tape, but the fact that he bulked up to 246 pounds and put up a linebacker-best 35 bench-press reps is encouraging. There's no questioning his explosive first step or college production, either.

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14
Breshad Perriman
Miami Dolphins (8-8)

COLLEGE: UCF
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 212
POS: WR

Analysis: We haven't had Perriman going this early in our previous mocks, but we've seen two promising signs from him as we've gone through the evaluation process. 1.) His ball skills, which were something of a concern on his early-season tape, appeared to get better as the year wore on. His performance in UCF's bowl game against NC State was the best we've seen from him in terms of catching the ball. 2.) He verified the speed he flashes on tape with 4.24 and 4.27 40 times at his pro day last week. Miami could use him to replace Mike Wallace as its deep threat opposite fellow newcomers Kenny Stills and Jordan Cameron, giving QB Ryan Tannehill some talented weapons to work with.

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15
Trae Waynes
San Francisco 49ers (8-8)

COLLEGE: Michigan State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 186
POS: CB

Analysis: The Niners added Torrey Smith in free agency as a wide receiver who can stretch the field vertically, but they could still look to upgrade at wide receiver or along the offensive and defensive lines. But perhaps their most pressing need is at cornerback, having lost Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox in free agency. Waynes is a solid value here as the top-ranked corner on our board. He displays very good technique and straight-line speed (4.35 40-yard dash) for the position, and is at his best in press-man or Cover-2 alignments.

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16
Dorial Green-Beckham
Houston Texans (9-7)

COLLEGE: Missouri
Class: Jr
HT: 6-5
WT: 237
POS: WR

Analysis: The Texans lost Andre Johnson this offseason, and while they added a solid possession receiver in Cecil Shorts III, they would benefit from a big-play target with size opposite DeAndre Hopkins. That could easily be Jaelen Strong, or Breshad Perriman if he's available, but Green-Beckham definitely fits the bill as well. He is one of the bigger wild cards in this class because of his off-field issues, but I think there's a good chance he goes in the top 25 because of the skill set he brings: size (6-5, 237 pounds), speed (4.39 40-yard dash) and the ability to create big plays in the downfield passing game. Based on talent alone, he's a top-three receiver in this class.

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17
Todd Gurley
San Diego Chargers (9-7)

COLLEGE: Georgia
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 222
POS: RB

Analysis: The other players I considered here were DE Arik Armstead, OL Cameron Erving, DT Malcom Brown and OTs T.J. Clemmings and Ereck Flowers. But Gurley might be too tempting to pass up. The Chargers need a lead back with Ryan Mathews departing to the Eagles in free agency, and while Gurley brings durability concerns coming off of a torn ACL, he's one of the most talented players in this entire class with his blend of power and breakaway speed. He'd help take some pressure off of quarterback Philip Rivers.

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18
Cameron Erving
Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)

COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Sr
HT: 6-5
WT: 313
POS: OC

Analysis: Even after trading for guard Ben Grubbs, the Chiefs still need help on their offensive line. Erving has very good length and athleticism for the center position and could step right in to replace Rodney Hudson, who signed with the Raiders in free agency, but he also has the versatility to help out at multiple spots along the line if he's need to in 2015 or going forward, having also played left tackle in college. The addition of Jeremy Maclin in free agency makes wide receiver a less pressing need.

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19
Ereck Flowers
Cleveland Browns (7-9)

COLLEGE: Miami (FL)
Class: Jr
HT: 6-6
WT: 329
POS: OT

Analysis: With Danny Shelton going to them at No. 12, I think this pick would come down to a wide receiver or offensive tackle. Flowers is a tough player with very good intangibles who takes well to coaching. He has a massive frame, is effective as a pass protector and a run blocker, and could fit in at right tackle opposite Joe Thomas or at guard.

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20
Landon Collins
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

COLLEGE: Alabama
Class: Jr
HT: 6-0
WT: 228
POS: S

Analysis: The Eagles have been very active in free agency and via trades so far this offseason, adding QB Sam Bradford, RB DeMarco Murray, LB Kiko Alonso and CBs Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond, among others. Receiver and outside linebacker are need areas, but I'll have them address the safety position with Collins, who is an athletic strong safety prospect built like a weakside linebacker who can hold up in coverage and be a force for Philly in run support.

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21
Andrus Peat
Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)

COLLEGE: Stanford
Class: Jr
HT: 6-6
WT: 313
POS: OT

Analysis: The Bengals could take DT Malcom Brown here or possibly look at one of the wide receivers, but Peat is a great value pick here (No. 10 player on our board), and Cincy's starting left tackle, Andrew Whitworth, is a free agent after the 2015 season. Peat struggles against power at times, but has all the tools to develop into a good starting NFL left tackle. The return of Michael Johnson in free agency lessens the Bengals' need for a pass-rusher, to a certain degree.

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22
Arik Armstead
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

COLLEGE: Oregon
Class: Jr
HT: 6-7
WT: 292
POS: DE

Analysis: The Steelers have needs all along their defense, including outside linebacker and cornerback, but Armstead is just a good value pick at this point. I consider him to be an underrated prospect (he's No. 7 on our board, but the sense I get is he could slip to the second half of the first round) with excellent length, power and violent hands. He's very good against the run, but his lack of production as a pass-rusher is something of a concern, even though he has all the tools to be a very good one. I've also heard some question the consistency of his motor and toughness.

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23
Malcom Brown
Detroit Lions (11-5)

COLLEGE: Texas
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 319
POS: DT

Analysis: This is another great value pick (No. 13 on our board). The Lions added Haloti Ngata to help ease the sting of losing Ndamukong Suh in free agency to the Lions, but not only is Ngata getting up in age and not the same level of dominant force that Suh was, but Detroit also saw Nick Fairley leave in free agency, and C.J. Mosley doesn't appear as though he'll be back. Brown is a very good run defender and an improving pass-rusher, and he has the versatility to play multiple spots along the defensive front.

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24
Bud Dupree
Arizona Cardinals (11-5)

COLLEGE: Kentucky
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 269
POS: OLB

Analysis: This is something of a luxury pick, as the Cardinals have done a nice job of plugging holes in free agency and don't have many glaring needs. This is a good spot for Dupree to land, as he's a raw player right now and would benefit from the veteran leadership of guys like Sean Weatherspoon and LaMarr Woodley. He'd be able to serve as a rotational pass-rusher to help keep guys fresh and do what he does best, which is get up the field and disrupt. There seems to be an emphasis in Arizona on adding more team speed, and Dupree definitely fits the bill: He ran a 4.56 40 with a 1.60 split at 6-4, 269 pounds, and his explosiveness jumps off the tape. I also considered RB Melvin Gordon or a cornerback for the Cardinals here.

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25
T.J. Clemmings
Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)

COLLEGE: Pittsburgh
Class: Sr
HT: 6-4
WT: 309
POS: OT

Analysis: The offensive line continues to be a need position for the Panthers, and they signed Michael Oher in free agency to play left tackle. Clemmings fits best as a right tackle anyway, so that makes him a good fit here. He is still raw and has only played tackle for two seasons now, so he can be something of a liability in pass protection at times. But he has the raw tools to succeed in the NFL, including excellent length and power.

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26
Jaelen Strong
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

COLLEGE: Arizona State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-2
WT: 217
POS: WR

Analysis: The Ravens' priorities in this draft have to be upgrading at cornerback and safety, but they could also go with a wide receiver, running back or pass-rusher here depending on how the board shakes out. I have them taking Strong in this scenario as a big-play target to replace Torrey Smith opposite Steve Smith Sr. Strong isn't the burner Torrey Smith was and takes a little time to build up speed, but his 4.44 40 and 42-inch vertical leap are good numbers for a player his size (6-2, 217 pounds), and he shows the ability to separate when the ball is in the air and come down with contested catches.

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27
Eddie Goldman
Dallas Cowboys (12-4)

COLLEGE: Florida State
Class: Jr
HT: 6-3
WT: 336
POS: DT

Analysis: The Cowboys addressed their pass-rusher need by signing Greg Hardy, and DeMarcus Lawrence should also help in this area if he's able to stay on the field for a full season. Goldman doesn't offer much in terms of getting to the quarterback, but he's very stout against the run and will make Dallas stronger down the middle of its defense. The Cowboys could look to add a running back to pair with Darren McFadden following the departure of DeMarco Murray to the Eagles, but they can address that need on Day 2 or 3.

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28
D.J. Humphries
Denver Broncos (12-4)

COLLEGE: Florida
Class: Jr
HT: 6-5
WT: 307
POS: OT

Analysis: Humphries eventually projects as a left tackle, but while it's unclear what role he'd play for Denver in 2015 (possibly right tackle, guard or as a sixth lineman), he's a great fit in new head coach Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking scheme because of his athleticism and movement skills. Moreover, the Broncos have to replace Orlando Franklin along their offensive line (he went to San Diego in free agency) and they really struggled in pass protection, which is Humphries' strength. They could also look at Carl Davis here to replace Terrance Knighton (now with the Redskins) at nose tackle.

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29
Eli Harold
Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

COLLEGE: Virginia
Class: Jr
HT: 6-3
WT: 247
POS: OLB

Analysis: I'd like to give them an offensive lineman here, but there aren't any left worth taking in this scenario. Harold would provide the Colts with a young pass-rusher to develop behind veterans Trent Cole and Robert Mathis, as Bjoern Werner has yet to provide evidence that he'll develop into an impact player. Harold is raw and needs to improve his recognition skills and tackling ability, but he flashes very good upside as a pass-rusher and is also a good run defender.

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30
Marcus Peters
Green Bay Packers (12-4)

COLLEGE: Washington
Class: Jr
HT: 5-11
WT: 197
POS: CB

Analysis: The Packers have a need at cornerback after losing both Davon House and Tramon Williams in free agency, and the value matches up well here with Peters (No. 21 on our board). He brings with him some off-field baggage after multiple suspensions and run-ins with coaches at Washington, but I think at this point he's worth the risk. Purely based off of tape study, he's the best corner in this class, with very good size, strength, natural athleticism and playmaking instincts.

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31
Kevin Johnson
New Orleans Saints (7-9)

COLLEGE: Wake Forest
Class: Sr
HT: 6-0
WT: 188
POS: CB

Analysis: The Saints addressed the cornerback position in free agency by signing Brandon Browner, but adding another corner certainly wouldn't hurt. Johnson isn't exceptional in any one trait, but he's good in every area. He's a different kind of player than Browner, who is more of a big, physical press corner, but Johnson still has above-average size at 6-0, 188, and he has the fluidity and athleticism to hold up as a nickel corner early in his career. Some fans might want to see a pass-catcher here, since the Saints traded away Jimmy Graham to get this pick along with center Max Unger, but in Johnson and Vic Beasley, the player I had them taking at No. 13, the Saints get two young players who can help a pass defense that was awful last season.

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32
Byron Jones
New England Patriots (12-4)

COLLEGE: Connecticut
Class: Sr
HT: 6-0
WT: 199
POS: CB

Analysis: Running back Melvin Gordon is an intriguing option for the Patriots here, as is nose tackle Jordan Phillips, who could step in to replace Vince Wilfork. But cornerback is the team's biggest need right now after losing Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner in free agency, and Jones has elite tools for the position. He has very good size, range and athleticism (including a ridiculous broad jump of 12 feet, 3 inches and a nearly-as-impressive vertical of 44.5 inches), and while he needs to improve his patience and anticipation skills, he is a hard worker who should take well to coaching.

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Top 10 prospects still available:

1. RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
2. DT Carl Davis, Iowa
3. CB Jalen Collins, LSU
4. WR Devin Smith, Ohio State
5. OLB Kikaha Hau'Oli
6. WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami-FL
7. RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
8. ILB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
9. WR Nelson Agholor, USC
10. NT Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/mock/?season=2015&version=4&source=Todd-McShay-Mock-Draft