2015 DRAFT CLASS WR CATCH RATES

Originally posted by buck:
Your welcome. I am still looking for the drop rates. I have only seen drop rates for Perriman.

UCF WR Breshad Perriman recorded a drop rate of 14 percent during the 2014 season, according to College Football Focus.

Drops are always subjective, but PFF sides on the receiver's side when charting NFL games. As does Rotoworld's Greg Peshek. To come up with the figure, CFF added catches (50) plus drops (8) to find the catchable passes number. Perriman posted a blazing forty time and did his best work on vertical routes. Poor dropped rates carried over from the 2013 season to rookie's first NFL seasons last year. Josh Norris recently mocked Perriman to the Browns at No. 19.
Source: Steve Palazzolo on Twitter



But subjectivity rears its ugly head. As the same source seems to give a different drop rate for the same year.

UCF WR Breshad Perriman had a drop rate of 12.96% in 2014, according to PFF.

That is terrible. The sample size might be smaller than others, as Perriman dropped seven of 54 catchable passes, but PFF has a tendency to side with the receiver on what exactly is "catchable." Perriman would have generated more buzz if he worked out at the Combine and still has a shot at being a late first-round selection, but very poor drop rates tend to carry over to the NFL - at least early on.
Source: Steve Palazzolo on Twitter

The second statistic for PFF seems to imply that he only caught 47 passes if they are claiming he dropped 7/54 (12.96%). Maybe they were missing a game when they reviewed it and he caught 3 passes with one drop that game.

Thanks for finding all this and posting it. It definitely provokes some interesting discussion about certain players.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Originally posted by buck:
Your welcome. I am still looking for the drop rates. I have only seen drop rates for Perriman.

UCF WR Breshad Perriman recorded a drop rate of 14 percent during the 2014 season, according to College Football Focus.

Drops are always subjective, but PFF sides on the receiver's side when charting NFL games. As does Rotoworld's Greg Peshek. To come up with the figure, CFF added catches (50) plus drops (8) to find the catchable passes number. Perriman posted a blazing forty time and did his best work on vertical routes. Poor dropped rates carried over from the 2013 season to rookie's first NFL seasons last year. Josh Norris recently mocked Perriman to the Browns at No. 19.
Source: Steve Palazzolo on Twitter



But subjectivity rears its ugly head. As the same source seems to give a different drop rate for the same year.

UCF WR Breshad Perriman had a drop rate of 12.96% in 2014, according to PFF.

That is terrible. The sample size might be smaller than others, as Perriman dropped seven of 54 catchable passes, but PFF has a tendency to side with the receiver on what exactly is "catchable." Perriman would have generated more buzz if he worked out at the Combine and still has a shot at being a late first-round selection, but very poor drop rates tend to carry over to the NFL - at least early on.
Source: Steve Palazzolo on Twitter

The second statistic for PFF seems to imply that he only caught 47 passes if they are claiming he dropped 7/54 (12.96%). Maybe they were missing a game when they reviewed it and he caught 3 passes with one drop that game.

Thanks for finding all this and posting it. It definitely provokes some interesting discussion about certain players.

Interesting things you can stumble across. This bit of information struck me as something to remember.

"Drops are always subjective, but PFF sides on the receiver's side when charting NFL games. As does Rotoworld's Greg Peshek."

When discussing drops by 49er receivers in 2014, some posters argued that PFF sided with the quarterback when it came to dropped passes. The argument presented was that PFF favoring of the quarterback made Kaepernick look better than he was.

I do think that when looking at drop rates and catch rates, we should acknowledge that drop rates are more susceptible to distortions because of the difficulty in assigning responsibility for "dropped passes."

Both drop rates and catch rates are metrics can help us better evaluate a player.

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Ohio State in 2014:
Throwing to Devin Smith: 68.8% completion rate for 19.4 yards per target
Throwing to everyone else: 62.9% completion rate for 7.7 yards per target

That's ridiculous. It sucks for him that he had such a terrible 40 time, because his numbers definitely support his being the best deep threat in the draft.

He ran a 4.42 at the combine. How is that terrible? His 3 cone time was also one best among wide receivers at the combine

Whoops. Were you being sarcastic?

.

Yeah, people are reading too much into 40times. Had he run a 4.37 he'd be a lock for the first round but somehow a 4.42 is a disappointment. unlike some other guys I think he'll be every bit the deep threat in the pros that we was in college. But Imo he's a one-trick pony. But then again so was Randy Moss.

Originally posted by All22:
Yeah, people are reading too much into 40times. Had he run a 4.37 he'd be a lock for the first round but somehow a 4.42 is a disappointment. unlike some other

Somehow even though "people" know that too much should not be read into the forty times, "people" continue to do so.

The difference in time between a 4.37 forty time and 4.42 forty time is five hundredths of a second. But that difference, and it seems very small, as you indicate, really does make the difference between Devin Smith being selected in the first round and the second round.

So I would say that in practice the 40 times really do have import---for the fans, the players, and the teams that do the drafting.

Go figure. The underwear Olympics do make a difference and yet, we continue to say that they should not.


The spirit of Al Davis live on.

.

At this point, there is not much solid information on drop rates.

Here is what I have found. I calculated the number of catchable balls by adding drops and receptions.

I would not "trust" these "stats" all that much.
Some of the numbers are for 1 year, others for 2 or 3 years.

Note the differences in the drop rates reported for Coates and White.

I included links for the reported "drop rates."

CBS gave the numbers as x for every Y; for example 1 drop for every 74 passes.

I just realized that the links to the drop stats were next to useless.

Here are the links in a useable form.

https://twitter.com/PFF_Steve/status/580805576617246720

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pat-kirwan/25064446/nfl-draft-nine-questions-teams-are-asking-heading-into-combine

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pat-kirwan/25064446/nfl-draft-nine-questions-teams-are-asking-heading-into-combine

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pat-kirwan/25064446/nfl-draft-nine-questions-teams-are-asking-heading-into-combine

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pat-kirwan/25064446/nfl-draft-nine-questions-teams-are-asking-heading-into-combine

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/sammie-coates?id=2552470

https://twitter.com/gil_brandt/status/568460133035962368

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article11152697.html#storylink=cpy

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pat-kirwan/25064446/nfl-draft-nine-questions-teams-are-asking-heading-into-combine

http://profootball.scout.com/story/1531709-jaelen-strong-player-evaluation

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/devante-parker?id=2552409

http://www.fantasysportswarehouse.com/nfl/2015/03/02/2015-draft-top-10-wr/

edit: waiting for Pesheck's stats (from rotoworld) on drops. He seems to be reliable.

Originally posted by buck:
Somehow even though "people" know that too much should not be read into the forty times, "people" continue to do so.

The difference in time between a 4.37 forty time and 4.42 forty time is five hundredths of a second. But that difference, and it seems very small, as you indicate, really does make the difference between Devin Smith being selected in the first round and the second round.

So I would say that in practice the 40 times really do have import---for the fans, the players, and the teams that do the drafting.

Go figure. The underwear Olympics do make a difference and yet, we continue to say that they should not.


The spirit of Al Davis live on.

.

Based on what? on who? People posting on forums? The Mayocks and McShays?

That may very well be, but it appears naive to be suggesting that NFL team's and legit scout's draft based on such minimal 40 time differences. All of the other noise is just drafturbation. There can be an exception here or there with some idiotic decision-makers, sure... but I don't think the vast majority make that big a deal over these little things.

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:

Originally posted by buck:
Somehow even though "people" know that too much should not be read into the forty times, "people" continue to do so.

The difference in time between a 4.37 forty time and 4.42 forty time is five hundredths of a second. But that difference, and it seems very small, as you indicate, really does make the difference between Devin Smith being selected in the first round and the second round.

So I would say that in practice the 40 times really do have import---for the fans, the players, and the teams that do the drafting.

Go figure. The underwear Olympics do make a difference and yet, we continue to say that they should not.


The spirit of Al Davis live on.

.

Based on what? on who? People posting on forums? The Mayocks and McShays?

That may very well be, but it appears naive to be suggesting that NFL team's and legit scout's draft based on such minimal 40 time differences. All of the other noise is just drafturbation. There can be an exception here or there with some idiotic decision-makers, sure... but I don't think the vast majority make that big a deal over these little things.

OK. Good point.

I will acknowledge that NFL teams and scouts really do not tell us how much weight they put on the 40 times.

Baalke in fact has said the combine results are supplemental.

Anyone know the catch rate / drop rate for Chris Conley?

Devin Smith 13.1 yards per target.

I've been saying for a while he's seriously underrated. Great ball skills, flexibility, high-pointing the ball. Very good speed just shy of the lightning-bug receivers out there; and he has decent size.

He's a big reason I don't want a WR at 15 or anywhere near that number.

Originally posted by vrabbit:

where did you get this? Or where is the best spot to find these catch rate stats

College Football Focus (PFF)




Deep Passing


Deep Passing vs. Power 5 Teams





Slot Performance


Slot Performance vs. Power 5 Teams





Yards Per Route Run


Yards Per Route Run vs. Power 5 Teams





Drop Rate – The Top 10


Drop Rate – The Bottom 10

Anyone got the chance to watch tape on Geremy Davis - WR - Connecticut (aside from his 2 YouTube clips) ?

73 targets, 44 catchable, 44 receptions, 0,00 drop rate

Height 6-2
Weight 216
40-yard 4.49
10-yard 1.56
Vertical 36 1/2
Broad 10´04
Shuttle 4.18
3-cone drill 6.86
Bench press 23