2015 DRAFT CLASS WR CATCH RATES

Originally posted by mr49er:
Tyler Lockett looks impressive but he's 5'10".

He's small and the big knock on him is whether he can beat press coverage given his size but in the slot his lack of size is somewhat mitigated. Not saying he's Steve Smith or Wes Welker, but if he puts on 10-15 pounds he'd be their size.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
For those looking at this chart, I'd be very careful not to confuse "catch percentage" with drop rate. This current chart does not take into account whether balls were catchable or not and does not supply the drop rates of receivers.

This chart could indicate a terrible QB more than a terrible WR, or vice versa. However, for a WR with a known terrible QB, a high catch rate could also indicate the WR is even better than you think. Lots and lots of factors.

This.

Also you would expect guys who are in downfield "chuck and duck" offenses to have a lower catch percentage than guys who routinely get passes within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.


Peshek did a great job of further breaking down these numbers last year to make them more meaningful.

the issue is that this stat doesn't provide us with the drop rate

edit: sorry, haven't seen that OTC already explained this issue.

2 names to be considered as possible Baalke choices - Rashard Greene and Stefon Diggs, both with good numbers and both will be available 3rd Rd. Diggs has already been scheduled to visit Niners soon.

Originally posted by crew:
2 names to be considered as possible Baalke choices - Rashard Greene and Stefon Diggs, both with good numbers and both will be available 3rd Rd. Diggs has already been scheduled to visit Niners soon.

Hard to define what "good numbers" are in this context. If a guy catches 80% of targets but the vast majority are bubble screens and short throws, that isnt saying much.

Conversely a guy catches 35% of his targets and is a great receiver but most of his targets are 20 yards downfield and his QB is a potato.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
For those looking at this chart, I'd be very careful not to confuse "catch percentage" with drop rate. This current chart does not take into account whether balls were catchable or not and does not supply the drop rates of receivers.

This chart could indicate a terrible QB more than a terrible WR, or vice versa. However, for a WR with a known terrible QB, a high catch rate could also indicate the WR is even better than you think. Lots and lots of factors.

The difference between catch rate and drop rate should be as clear as day. I think most people know the difference between the catch rate and the drop rate. But, maybe not.

No. the chart does not supply the drop rates for the receivers. But, then I specifically stated that I had looked for drop rates, and could not find them. I have found no more than references to the drop rates of specific receivers ut as of today, I have not found the drop rates for the wide receivers in this draft class.

Both drop rates and catch rates will depend on the accuracy and the passes thrown, although it seems clear that the drop rate is more susceptible to errors created by the subjectivity of the person or organization determining which passes are "catchable."

Yes. There are lots and lots of factors that need to be considered when evaluating players in the draft. The catch rate is just one of those factors, as is the drop rate, or the quality of the quarterback throwing the passes.

The catch rate statistics, like all statistics, need to be put in their proper context.

I figure you and other members of the forum are at least as capable of doing that as I am. Therefore, I made no attempt to put these stats in any context.

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

For those looking at this chart, I'd be very careful not to confuse "catch percentage" with drop rate. This current chart does not take into account whether balls were catchable or not and does not supply the drop rates of receivers.

This chart could indicate a terrible QB more than a terrible WR, or vice versa. However, for a WR with a known terrible QB, a high catch rate could also indicate the WR is even better than you think. Lots and lots of factors.

The difference between catch rate and drop rate should be as clear as day. I think most people know the difference between the catch rate and the drop rate. But, maybe not.

No. the chart does not supply the drop rates for the receivers. But, then I specifically stated that I had looked for drop rates, and could not find them. I have found no more than references to the drop rates of specific receivers ut as of today, I have not found the drop rates for the wide receivers in this draft class.

Both drop rates and catch rates will depend on the accuracy and the passes thrown, although it seems clear that the drop rate is more susceptible to errors created by the subjectivity of the person or organization determining which passes are "catchable."

Yes. There are lots and lots of factors that need to be considered when evaluating players in the draft. The catch rate is just one of those factors, as is the drop rate, or the quality of the quarterback throwing the passes.

The catch rate statistics, like all statistics, need to be put in their proper context.

I figure you and other members of the forum are at least as capable of doing that as I am. Therefore, I made no attempt to put these stats in any context.

We all know how posters look at the chart and nothing else here on the Zone. Just doing folks a favor by throwing that redundant but probably necessary commentary out there so people don't jump to conclusions and start attacking each other over prospects because they misinterpreted your post, buck. Preemptive strike, if you will.

Originally posted by communist:
the issue is that this stat doesn't provide us with the drop rate

edit: sorry, haven't seen that OTC already explained this issue.

Drop rates and Catch rates are two distinct things.

Both depend on the quality of the quarterback throwing the ball, and other factors, such as the difficulty of the pass thrown and the quality of the defense faced.

Both have a degree of importance. Ideally, we would have both. As I stated I looked for the drop rates and could not find them.

These statistics are just one aspect that should be considered when evaluating the wide receivers in this draft.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
For those looking at this chart, I'd be very careful not to confuse "catch percentage" with drop rate. This current chart does not take into account whether balls were catchable or not and does not supply the drop rates of receivers.

This chart could indicate a terrible QB more than a terrible WR, or vice versa. However, for a WR with a known terrible QB, a high catch rate could also indicate the WR is even better than you think. Lots and lots of factors.

The difference between catch rate and drop rate should be as clear as day. I think most people know the difference between the catch rate and the drop rate. But, maybe not.

No. the chart does not supply the drop rates for the receivers. But, then I specifically stated that I had looked for drop rates, and could not find them. I have found no more than references to the drop rates of specific receivers ut as of today, I have not found the drop rates for the wide receivers in this draft class.

Both drop rates and catch rates will depend on the accuracy and the passes thrown, although it seems clear that the drop rate is more susceptible to errors created by the subjectivity of the person or organization determining which passes are "catchable."

Yes. There are lots and lots of factors that need to be considered when evaluating players in the draft. The catch rate is just one of those factors, as is the drop rate, or the quality of the quarterback throwing the passes.

The catch rate statistics, like all statistics, need to be put in their proper context.

I figure you and other members of the forum are at least as capable of doing that as I am. Therefore, I made no attempt to put these stats in any context.

We all know how posters look at the chart and nothing else here on the Zone. Just doing folks a favor by throwing that redundant but probably necessary commentary out there so people don't jump to conclusions and start attacking each other over prospects because they misinterpreted your post, buck. Preemptive strike, if you will.

By my reckoning, I am one of the least knowledgeable posters in this forum when it comes to evaluating the passing game. If I can figure out the difference between a drop rate and a catch rate, I just assume that other posters can do the same.

But, thanks for the prophylactic you presented.

Wow... Ohio State should have used Devin Smith more. 68.8% catch rate and 19.4 yards per target are absurd. The team completed 63.6% of its passes for 9.05 yards per target for comparison. It's awesome that he had an extremely high catch rate to go along with monstrous yards/catch.

Ohio State in 2014:
Throwing to Devin Smith: 68.8% completion rate for 19.4 yards per target
Throwing to everyone else: 62.9% completion rate for 7.7 yards per target

That's ridiculous. It sucks for him that he had such a terrible 40 time, because his numbers definitely support his being the best deep threat in the draft.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by crew:
2 names to be considered as possible Baalke choices - Rashard Greene and Stefon Diggs, both with good numbers and both will be available 3rd Rd. Diggs has already been scheduled to visit Niners soon.

Hard to define what "good numbers" are in this context. If a guy catches 80% of targets but the vast majority are bubble screens and short throws, that isnt saying much.

Conversely a guy catches 35% of his targets and is a great receiver but most of his targets are 20 yards downfield and his QB is a potato.

Hhmmm wasnt it bubble screens and short throws tha knock everyone on here used against Jordan Matthews in last yrs draft ??? How did he do his rookie yr ??? Just saying

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Ohio State in 2014:
Throwing to Devin Smith: 68.8% completion rate for 19.4 yards per target
Throwing to everyone else: 62.9% completion rate for 7.7 yards per target

That's ridiculous. It sucks for him that he had such a terrible 40 time, because his numbers definitely support his being the best deep threat in the draft.

He ran a 4.42 at the combine. How is that terrible? His 3 cone time was also one best among wide receivers at the combine

Whoops. Were you being sarcastic?

.

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

For those looking at this chart, I'd be very careful not to confuse "catch percentage" with drop rate. This current chart does not take into account whether balls were catchable or not and does not supply the drop rates of receivers.

This chart could indicate a terrible QB more than a terrible WR, or vice versa. However, for a WR with a known terrible QB, a high catch rate could also indicate the WR is even better than you think. Lots and lots of factors.

The difference between catch rate and drop rate should be as clear as day. I think most people know the difference between the catch rate and the drop rate. But, maybe not.

No. the chart does not supply the drop rates for the receivers. But, then I specifically stated that I had looked for drop rates, and could not find them. I have found no more than references to the drop rates of specific receivers ut as of today, I have not found the drop rates for the wide receivers in this draft class.

Both drop rates and catch rates will depend on the accuracy and the passes thrown, although it seems clear that the drop rate is more susceptible to errors created by the subjectivity of the person or organization determining which passes are "catchable."

Yes. There are lots and lots of factors that need to be considered when evaluating players in the draft. The catch rate is just one of those factors, as is the drop rate, or the quality of the quarterback throwing the passes.

The catch rate statistics, like all statistics, need to be put in their proper context.

I figure you and other members of the forum are at least as capable of doing that as I am. Therefore, I made no attempt to put these stats in any context.

We all know how posters look at the chart and nothing else here on the Zone. Just doing folks a favor by throwing that redundant but probably necessary commentary out there so people don't jump to conclusions and start attacking each other over prospects because they misinterpreted your post, buck. Preemptive strike, if you will.

By my reckoning, I am one of the least knowledgeable posters in this forum when it comes to evaluating the passing game. If I can figure out the difference between a drop rate and a catch rate, I just assume that other posters can do the same.

But, thanks for the prophylactic you presented.

Anytime. Sometimes people overthink the simple stuff, too, or assess too quickly, like subtracting the catch rate from 100% and concluding the drop rate of a receiver with a 75% catch rate, was 25%. Easy to do unintentionally I think if you're looking at it real quick.

But anyways, each piece of information is good to analyze. And I'm sure we all appreciate you posting up those numbers which will foster further exploration of the deeper statistics within those.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Anytime. Sometimes people overthink the simple stuff, too, or assess too quickly, like subtracting the catch rate from 100% and concluding the drop rate of a receiver with a 75% catch rate, was 25%. Easy to do unintentionally I think if you're looking at it real quick.

But anyways, each piece of information is good to analyze. And I'm sure we all appreciate you posting up those numbers which will foster further exploration of the deeper statistics within those.

Your welcome. I am still looking for the drop rates. I have only seen drop rates for Perriman.

UCF WR Breshad Perriman recorded a drop rate of 14 percent during the 2014 season, according to College Football Focus.

Drops are always subjective, but PFF sides on the receiver's side when charting NFL games. As does Rotoworld's Greg Peshek. To come up with the figure, CFF added catches (50) plus drops (8) to find the catchable passes number. Perriman posted a blazing forty time and did his best work on vertical routes. Poor dropped rates carried over from the 2013 season to rookie's first NFL seasons last year. Josh Norris recently mocked Perriman to the Browns at No. 19.
Source: Steve Palazzolo on Twitter



But subjectivity rears its ugly head. As the same source seems to give a different drop rate for the same year.

UCF WR Breshad Perriman had a drop rate of 12.96% in 2014, according to PFF.

That is terrible. The sample size might be smaller than others, as Perriman dropped seven of 54 catchable passes, but PFF has a tendency to side with the receiver on what exactly is "catchable." Perriman would have generated more buzz if he worked out at the Combine and still has a shot at being a late first-round selection, but very poor drop rates tend to carry over to the NFL - at least early on.
Source: Steve Palazzolo on Twitter