The Just-Start-Puttin'-up-threes Draft Philosophy

Here's why I want the Niners to trade up for Leonard Williams.

I think it's 3 times more important to absolutely knock a draft pick out the park than it is to not draft a crappy player.

If you blow it in the draft, you can make it up in FA. If you get a future HOFer, he's yours for as long as you want him because of the franchise tag. A good player like Andre Carter, for example, might play 5 years & leave in FA. Not good enough to franchise. A truly great player like BY is the cornerstone of your D for a decade.
Also, you can make up for a miss in the first round w/ a great pick in the 2nd or 3rd.

Winning the Super Bowl is EXTREMELY rare / unlikely unless you have a top-10-caliber QB. If you have the best defense in the NFL, you can win with a good, average or even below-average QB. Leonard Williams is one of those no-duh players like Steve Hutchinson or Richard Seymour or Calvin Johnson or Julius Peppers. He's about as low-risk as it gets. And the 2nd-best DL in the draft is so far below him there's no comparison.

This is also why I love Baalke's late-round pick philosophy. Guys like Tank, Lattimore, Lynch, Brandon Thomas and so on are huge-risk, huge-reward kinds of players. I'd rather hit on lynch like he did & miss on the next 7 5th-round picks than get 7 typical 5th-rounders.

If Baalke isn't in rebuilding mode he's kidding himself IMO. Gotta find those new pillars of the team & build around them.

What are you willing to give up to get Leonard Williams? It will cost a fortune to move up to #2 in the draft which is probably where we would need to be to select him. And Tennessee is also in rebuilding mode and could use an interior defensive lineman, so why would they want to trade down with the 49ers unless we're giving them more value in the trade?

Drafting Williams is a pipe dream that isn't going to happen. Baalke isn't going to want to give up a bunch of high picks this year and next year to make the move. It would probably cost roughly the 1st and 2nd round picks this year and next. That's a lot to give up for one player when you're many players away from being competitive. Williams is about as safe a prospect as there is in this draft, so we would be paying a lot not to draft a crappy player. I'd rather draft several high upside players who may not be able to contribute right away.

I really like the idea of trading back a bit and drafting Dupree/DGB/Gurley later on in the first and then 2 players like Byron Jones, Carl Davis, or Stephone Anthony in the 2nd round (and keeping our future picks). We don't need to pay up for an instant impact guy like Williams.

The team needs players. As much as I like Williams the 49ers would have to give up multiple picks this year and probably next year. The only way a team makes a move like that is for a QB.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
What are you willing to give up to get Leonard Williams?

A lot. It would definitely involve 1 & 2 this year & next & more.

Originally posted by RishikeshA:
The team needs players. As much as I like Williams the 49ers would have to give up multiple picks this year and probably next year. The only way a team makes a move like that is for a QB.

Unfortunately Baalke's too com'fy in his job to do the right thing and address the QB position (by trading Kaepernick and starting over). Job security > better chances of winning a SB.

So if they're going to win it's going to be with a legendary defense.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
What are you willing to give up to get Leonard Williams? It will cost a fortune to move up to #2 in the draft which is probably where we would need to be to select him. And Tennessee is also in rebuilding mode and could use an interior defensive lineman, so why would they want to trade down with the 49ers unless we're giving them more value in the trade?

Drafting Williams is a pipe dream that isn't going to happen. Baalke isn't going to want to give up a bunch of high picks this year and next year to make the move. It would probably cost roughly the 1st and 2nd round picks this year and next. That's a lot to give up for one player when you're many players away from being competitive. Williams is about as safe a prospect as there is in this draft, so we would be paying a lot not to draft a crappy player. I'd rather draft several high upside players who may not be able to contribute right away.

I really like the idea of trading back a bit and drafting Dupree/DGB/Gurley later on in the first and then 2 players like Byron Jones, Carl Davis, or Stephone Anthony in the 2nd round (and keeping our future picks). We don't need to pay up for an instant impact guy like Williams.

Can we trade that Borland pick seeing how its a wasted pick how about throwing in tha lattimore pick too

Originally posted by tatdwolf49:
Can we trade that Borland pick seeing how its a wasted pick how about throwing in tha lattimore pick too

I actually think it was the right move to draft Lattimore. The potential reward was so high they had to try IMO. The Borland thing pisses me off; I wanted Dontae Moncrief.

If the Niners can't trade up for Leonard Williams, I say just trade down & start swingin' for the fences. Draft a bunch of "potential" guys & hope a couple of 'em turn into the next Lynch. Most probably won't turn out great, but if you get 1 truly great player from one draft it's a good one.


So no more Jimmie Wards; start drafting Bradley Robys (like I told you to Trent!). The Niners are 31 times more likely to not win a SB as they are to win it; they're gonna have to take some chances.

Very unlikely we are trading from #15 to #2. We'd have to give up way too much. We have too many needs to be spending a bunch of picks on one guy.

Disagree.

IF we didn't lose Patrick, Boreland and probably Justin, Iupati and have BIG questions in other areas I'd be all-in for the gamble.

We need too much to throw the dice on one guy.

BYW, and I'm sure you'd agree - There is no such thing as a can't miss player.

I've never seen an article or post, tho I'm sure there is one, that lists top 10 guys who tanked.

Dorsey was a top 10 guy who didn't really perform until he came here.

Originally posted by pwillis52beasty:
Very unlikely we are trading from #15 to #2. We'd have to give up way too much. We have too many needs to be spending a bunch of picks on one guy.

I think the team had too many needs NOT to spend the picks on one guy. The point is that Rome wasn't built in a day, and trying to fill too many positions at once usually results in having a bunch of mediocre to bad players whom you'll have to replace anyway.

I know it's not likely for 'em to trade up that far, but it would be a good idea to try IMO. Otherwise, I say trade down & start drafting a bunch of high-risk, high-reward players. Get a bunch of guys who could be the next Taylor Mays or the next Aaron Lynch.

With Borland and Willis both pulling the plug on their careers, the idea of trading up into the top 3-5 picks is ludicrous. So much talent has left of their own accord or because the Niners have neglected to retain their services, the front office has to get some bodies in here to fill the roster and restore the depth they had. Here's hoping Baalke can pull another 2014 draft where he parlayed 10 picks into 12 and added some good players.

Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
With Borland and Willis both pulling the plug on their careers, the idea of trading up into the top 3-5 picks is ludicrous. So much talent has left of their own accord or because the Niners have neglected to retain their services, the front office has to get some bodies in here to fill the roster and restore the depth they had. Here's hoping Baalke can pull another 2014 draft where he parlayed 10 picks into 12 and added some good players.

Trying to fill too many needs in one offseason can be a huge mistake. You can end up with a bunch of mediocre players who are just good enough to keep their jobs.

At that point, the Niners were good enough to be drafting for depth. At this point, they're not. And the jury's still out on the 2014 draft. Huge questions all over that draft right now (Borland doesn't help).

It's not that I'm against trading back & getting a lot of picks though. I'm not against picking at 15 either (as long as they get a guy worth that pick like Sheriff or maybe Eddie Goldman. I'd just prefer they made a move for Leonard.