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Devin Funchess, A difference maker for us.. WR/TE?
Mar 15, 2015 at 10:30 AM
- Wu-5Rings
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Mar 15, 2015 at 12:33 PM
- OnTheClock
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Originally posted by NinerSickness:Originally posted by OnTheClock:Combine times are not always reliable either. Easy example: Look at all the real-time mashups they've done with players who clocked "faster" 40-times getting beaten by the player they're being compared to on the actual video.
Combine times are still a million times more reliable than pro' day.
Combine: everyone uses the same equipment, runs the same track, are timed by the same people on the same day.
Pro' day: who knows?
The ultimate point from the rest of my post was simple, that much of a difference -- and I'm sure scouts will compare their times too -- is too significant to ignore. Most players don't improve their times more than .05 to .08 -- but a .22 jump is extremely rare, meaning most likely the combine time was more of an anomaly, especially if you feel the game footage doesn't indicate 4.7 either.
Again, Boldin ran a 4.72, so I don't think the 4.70 would've dissuaded too many teams anyway.
Mar 15, 2015 at 2:34 PM
- NinerSickness
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Originally posted by OnTheClock:
The ultimate point from the rest of my post was simple, that much of a difference -- and I'm sure scouts will compare their times too -- is too significant to ignore. Most players don't improve their times more than .05 to .08 -- but a .22 jump is extremely rare, meaning most likely the combine time was more of an anomaly, especially if you feel the game footage doesn't indicate 4.7 either.
Again, Boldin ran a 4.72, so I don't think the 4.70 would've dissuaded too many teams anyway.
You're right that his 40 time shouldn't deter anyone. He's not going to have any trouble getting open in the NFL IMO. He might not be a Tyler Eifert, but he should be a very good receiving threat IMO. The biggest question is his blocking if he plays TE.
But I don't think the huge disparity shows his combine time is an anomaly; I think it shows that the pro' day time probably isn't accurate. Combine times are done twice to show a preponderance of evidence of a guy's long speed. It's possible he might've been gimpy at the combine, but I think it's more likely that he's just not extremely fast. But like you said, it's not all about a 40 time.
Mar 15, 2015 at 6:59 PM
- eastcoast49ersfan
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Originally posted by NinerSickness:
But I don't think the huge disparity shows his combine time is an anomaly; I think it shows that the pro' day time probably isn't accurate. Combine times are done twice to show a preponderance of evidence of a guy's long speed. It's possible he might've been gimpy at the combine, but I think it's more likely that he's just not extremely fast. But like you said, it's not all about a 40 time.
Disagree with this. 2 timed runs are not enough to show for sure what a player's long speed (or actual 40 speed) is. You see some guys have huge differences between their 2 40's at the combine as a result of slow starts, standing up too quickly, not running in a straight line, etc. It's very possible that some guys like Funchess and Devin Smith just had two bad runs. There are also sometimes issues with the times even though the combine is partially electronically timed. You can see some players beat others if you watch them simultaneously but have slower official times.
When there is a huge disparity between combine and pro day times it likely means the player's actual speed falls somewhere in between. A fast pro day could be the result of different turfs, bad timers, better conditions than at the combine, etc. Given how surprised everyone was by Funchess's time at the combine, it's likely he is really a 4.6-4.65 guy who had two bad runs, was gimpy, or was the beneficiary of a mistake with the timing or a combination of things. He also could have improved his technique a little bit since the combine because not all these players are former track guys.
Two 40 times at the combine are not a preponderance of evidence of a guy's long speed which is why there is still value to watching tape, seeing their pro day results, and using your own judgment. I still see Jaelen Strong as more of a 4.5 guy who either had one perfect run at the combine or got lucky and they timed him faster than he should have been timed. On the other hand, I think Devin Smith and Devin Funchess are faster than they were timed at the combine. Keep in mind that the combine 40 time is not perfect because the start is hand timed which can lead to error.
Mar 15, 2015 at 7:02 PM
- eastcoast49ersfan
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Somehow, I forget this every year, but this article breaks down how the 40 is timed at the combine and the differences between fully hand timed runs, hand-starts and electronic finishes (the combine), and fully electronic times. The hand-time portion adds some additional error which can make players appear faster or slower than they actually are.
http://www.strengthcoach.com/public/1140.cfm
http://www.strengthcoach.com/public/1140.cfm
Mar 16, 2015 at 12:32 AM
- NinerSickness
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Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
When there is a huge disparity between combine and pro day times it likely means the player's actual speed falls somewhere in between.
I don't think that's true at all. 99% of the time it means the pro' day time is BS IMO.
Combine times are standardized. Everyone has the exact same evaluation. Same track, same equipment, same people, same way. People have bad runs, but at least the timing is all done the same.
Pro' day has too many different added variables to count.
Mar 16, 2015 at 1:00 AM
- mayo49
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I'd love to get Funchess to replace Vernon.
Mar 16, 2015 at 1:09 AM
- NinerSickness
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Originally posted by mayo49:
I'd love to get Funchess to replace Vernon.
Nah. Vernon's still a keeper IMO. Unless they can get a first-round pick for him, let him play out his contract year; he'll be rejuvenated. Just watch.
I want him to replace Vance.
Move Vance to FB and cut Bruce Miller. Or keep 3 TEs and start Millard at FB. It's not worth keeping 2 FBs to wait for Miller to be un-suspended.
[ Edited by NinerSickness on Mar 16, 2015 at 1:11 AM ]
Mar 16, 2015 at 1:16 AM
- mayo49
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Originally posted by NinerSickness:
Originally posted by mayo49:
I'd love to get Funchess to replace Vernon.
Nah. Vernon's still a keeper IMO. Unless they can get a first-round pick for him, let him play out his contract year; he'll be rejuvenated. Just watch.
I want him to replace Vance.
Move Vance to FB and cut Bruce Miller. Or keep 3 TEs and start Millard at FB. It's not worth keeping 2 FBs to wait for Miller to be un-suspended.
This is probably Vernon's last year. We have to think about replacing him, now. Be it Funchess or whoever.
Mar 16, 2015 at 1:18 AM
- NinerSickness
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Originally posted by mayo49:
This is probably Vernon's last year. We have to think about replacing him, now. Be it Funchess or whoever.
Oh you meant replace him next year. That makes sense.
I'd still franchise him after the season if they can get a deal done w/ Aldon. There's still a lot of meat left on that bone IMO. Gives the team leverage because everyone knows Vernon wants a long-term deal, and he's getting up there in age. Might even be able to trade him.
Last year was clearly not an example of his ability. He got hurt a bit & mailed it in. That won't happen if he's on a series of 1-year deals.
[ Edited by NinerSickness on Mar 16, 2015 at 1:19 AM ]
Mar 16, 2015 at 7:55 AM
- eastcoast49ersfan
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Originally posted by NinerSickness:I don't think that's true at all. 99% of the time it means the pro' day time is BS IMO.
Combine times are standardized. Everyone has the exact same evaluation. Same track, same equipment, same people, same way. People have bad runs, but at least the timing is all done the same.
Pro' day has too many different added variables to count.
The timing is done with the same method at the combine, but there is a manual component to the timing which cannot be standardized. Pro day times like combine times are a guide to determining the player's actual speed. Both have some error and the combine has fewer variables, but that's not an excuse to throw pro day times out the window. I mostly use pro day times combined with on field speed to determine if players are faster or slower than their combine time (pro day times only help if there is a significant difference or the player runs slower at their pro day because pro days are on average about 0.1 seconds faster). There is very strong evidence that Funchess is faster than a 4.7 between his pro day time and his performance on the field. The 4.48 is not at all realistic, but it helps make the case that he's faster than 4.7.
[ Edited by eastcoast49ersfan on Mar 16, 2015 at 7:56 AM ]
Mar 16, 2015 at 8:34 AM
- OnTheClock
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Originally posted by NinerSickness:Originally posted by OnTheClock:The ultimate point from the rest of my post was simple, that much of a difference -- and I'm sure scouts will compare their times too -- is too significant to ignore. Most players don't improve their times more than .05 to .08 -- but a .22 jump is extremely rare, meaning most likely the combine time was more of an anomaly, especially if you feel the game footage doesn't indicate 4.7 either.
Again, Boldin ran a 4.72, so I don't think the 4.70 would've dissuaded too many teams anyway.
You're right that his 40 time shouldn't deter anyone. He's not going to have any trouble getting open in the NFL IMO. He might not be a Tyler Eifert, but he should be a very good receiving threat IMO. The biggest question is his blocking if he plays TE.
But I don't think the huge disparity shows his combine time is an anomaly; I think it shows that the pro' day time probably isn't accurate. Combine times are done twice to show a preponderance of evidence of a guy's long speed. It's possible he might've been gimpy at the combine, but I think it's more likely that he's just not extremely fast. But like you said, it's not all about a 40 time.
There is a long history of combine 40 times that can be used as examples of anomalies or non-indicative descriptors of a player's true speed. Obviously no one is arguing that Funchess is a 4.56 or faster player on the field. But if you've done heavy review of Michigan footage over the past year or two, you know 4.58 - 4.63 seems very on point in terms of his timed speed, rather than 4.70. The 4.70 can be attributed to a number of factors, including the margin of error -- gotta love those statisticians -- in the times at the combine.
Again, there are various methods scouts use to chart their prospects measurables, which I detailed earlier.
Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:The timing is done with the same method at the combine, but there is a manual component to the timing which cannot be standardized. Pro day times like combine times are a guide to determining the player's actual speed. Both have some error and the combine has fewer variables, but that's not an excuse to throw pro day times out the window. I mostly use pro day times combined with on field speed to determine if players are faster or slower than their combine time (pro day times only help if there is a significant difference or the player runs slower at their pro day because pro days are on average about 0.1 seconds faster). There is very strong evidence that Funchess is faster than a 4.7 between his pro day time and his performance on the field. The 4.48 is not at all realistic, but it helps make the case that he's faster than 4.7.
Well said.
Mar 16, 2015 at 8:35 AM
- NYniner85
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Originally posted by mayo49:
I'd love to get Funchess to replace Vernon.
So you think he'd play TE? Devin can't block and VD is actually one of the best blocking TE's in the league. He won't be on the field enough based on our run 1st philosophy.
Mar 16, 2015 at 4:25 PM
- LowerTheBoom
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Originally posted by NinerSickness:
I don't think that's true at all. 99% of the time it means the pro' day time is BS IMO.
Combine times are standardized. Everyone has the exact same evaluation. Same track, same equipment, same people, same way. People have bad runs, but at least the timing is all done the same.
Pro' day has too many different added variables to count.
You know what the main difference between an electronic, combine time and a Pro-Day time is, right?
Electronic time starts on your first MOVEMENT, where the pro day times start on your first step. Big difference, and can easily account for .1-.2 of a second that would not really correlate into game speed.
There are many LB's in the NFL that ran 4.5 at the combine in the last 10 years, yet Willis and I think Bruce Carter ran 4.3 at their Pro-Day. After seeing Patrick Willis hawk down a WR 10 yards ahead who was in full stride, I would REALLY beg to differ that the other LB's in the NFL that ran 4.5 are just as fast as Willis.
Also... I would like to add that A LOT of players stand on their combine 40 time and don't even bother running it at their Pro-Day. If there was a 100% chance that they would run faster at their Pro-Day, why would so many guys just elect not to do it?
Lastly, any way you slice it... 6'5, 232 lbs and a wide frame like Funchess running a 4.4 - whether hand timed or not - is impressive.
Mar 16, 2015 at 4:29 PM
- LowerTheBoom
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Originally posted by NYniner85:
So you think he'd play TE? Devin can't block and VD is actually one of the best blocking TE's in the league. He won't be on the field enough based on our run 1st philosophy.
I think it's kinda ridiculous to assume players can make position switches based off nothing but their size. Asking a 230-235 lb athlete with zero experience blocking to play in-line and square up against seasoned DE's is a recipe for disaster.
I would like Funchess in the 2nd round round (previously said I wouldn't want him sooner than 3rd) to compete for the #3 WR spot with Patton and Ellington.
Regardless of his 40 time, he has great body control, cannot be press covered, and has great wiggle as a route runner.
If he didn't have questionable hands and his production wasn't sub-par for a #1, I would be ok with taking him in the 1st.