LTB's Mock Offseason (Pre-Free Agency/Pro Day)

Originally posted by m_brockalexander:

Originally posted by NinerSickness:
Lotta offense in that draft.

The list of the top players under 25 came out on NFL.com today. Niners had two on the defense (Borland and Reid) and none on offense. The Niners need help on that side of the ball.

wow they drafted 23 players the past 2 drafts and I believe only 7 (still on the team) are on offense

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:

Originally posted by NinerSickness:
Lotta offense in that draft.

Yup. That was by design.

Our D was 5th in the league if I'm not mistaken... while missing Bowman for 16 games, Willis for 10.5, Aldon for 9 games and Tramaine Brock missed damn near the whole season.

Not only did our WR corps need a major jolt regardless, but only only Boldin, Patton and Ellington are under contract, and even if we hit gold and draft a legit #1 WR in the 1st... spots 3-5/6 have to be accounted for, and neither Patton or Ellington are locks to be the answer there (although I do like both players, they are far from sure bets).

We needed to reload in a major way on O, and I just wasn't very fond of the DL depth in this years crop. We have the best ILB unit and depth in the entire NFL, 1 elite level All-Pro in Aldon Smith, a budding star in Aaron Lynch and an excellent #3 OLB in Skuta.

Given the fact that we drafted Jimmie Ward in the 1st, Brock will be healthy and Dontae Johnson looked good last year, I don't think CB is as much of a need as its made out to be, nor do I see Baalke investing that highly in CB after drafting the guys he did last year.

Looks good but would like a stud young DE in the draft to solidify the defensive line. We have the best set of LB's in the league and with Brock coming back, Johnson developing and Reaser and Acker coming in from last year's draft if we get Cox or Culliver back we should be ok in the secondary and getting Ward back should complete the safety position but we win on defense and the DL could use some help. especially after losing RayMac and Justin at the end of his career.

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:

Originally posted by elguapo:
I love that mock offseason and draft. Rounds 1-3 are great. The de may not be addressed if we sign dockett. I think the resigns and walks are right on except we do not cut Ian Williams.

I agree, I think the Dockett signing is wishful thinking... but where I think we may sign SOMEONE relevant at DE because there are no players in the draft this year that can step in and fill Ray McDonald's shoes in 2015. Perhaps the 49ers are THAT high on Carradine from practices that they don't feel Dockett is necessary, but:

1) I don't see a Year 1 starting 5-technique in the first 3 rounds

2) I think it would be foolish to gamble on a project like Arik Armstead in the 1st round and fail AGAIN to address our glaring need for a prime time WR talent.

Maybe we don't cut Ian Williams, but between him and Glenn Dorsey, that money can be used better elsewhere, IMO.

Originally posted by Travisty13:
What exactly has Dorsett shown that indicates he'd be a "needed boost" to our return game. He wasn't even Miami's return man this year, Stacy Coley was. And in all his time at Miami, he had 23 KR for 449 yards and a 19.5 average and as PR he had 16 returns for 79 yards and a 4.9 average. He's a horrible returner and wouldn't be an upgrade over anyone on this team. Some guys just aren't made to be returners, Dorsett is one.

We don't have anyone on our team that scares another team in the return game and Dorsett has not just great speed but the ability to make sharp cuts.

Our return game has been pathetic since Ginn left. With Dorsett, we at least bring a guy who has experience fielding punts and gives us a much better chance at an explosive return than anyone currently on the roster.

Bruce Ellington averaged slightly more than Dorsett in both KR/PR (+2.1 yds KR, +.4 PR), while having less experience and better athleticism... don't know what grounds to base on that Ellington's experience, current production and athletic make him a more ideal return man.

Originally posted by LZRD_WZRD:
We're not going to pick 3 WR, including a 1st rounder. If we're drafting the second tier guys, then we're going OL or defense in the 1st round for sure

Here's some facts you're not looking at:

* Anquan Boldin is the ONLY proven WR on our roster, and he is a FA after this year
* Neither Bruce Ellington or Quinton Patton are proven in any capacity
* DeAndre Smelter is a huge value where we get him and we can put him on IR and he won't even affect our 53-man roster.

Good GM's draft for the team's future, not just to make individual Super Bowl runs every year. We had the best DL in the NFL when we drafted Tank Carradine, 2 Pro-Bowlers at G when we drafted Marcus Martin and Brandon Thomas, and 2 Pro-Bowl S's when we drafted Jimmie Ward. Some players you draft to help you Year 1, some players you draft to help you in years 2-3. This happens to be a very good year in WR depth, and we happen to be desperate at WR.

It's ironic that people say it's overkill to draft 3 WR's when we hardly have players there PERIOD, let alone talent...

...but then want to draft an OL in the 1st round when we have a ton of talent there under contract, AND spent 2nd and 3rd round draft picks on OL just year before.

Originally posted by MC9BEAT:
Looks good but would like a stud young DE in the draft to solidify the defensive line. We have the best set of LB's in the league and with Brock coming back, Johnson developing and Reaser and Acker coming in from last year's draft if we get Cox or Culliver back we should be ok in the secondary and getting Ward back should complete the safety position but we win on defense and the DL could use some help. especially after losing RayMac and Justin at the end of his career.

Would love a young, stud DE to develop.... question is WHO, and is it a bigger priority than our offense that was stuck in the mud last year?

There are no sure-fire bets for me in either the 1st or 2nd round of the draft, Armstead could be great, but what he puts on ttape doesn't match his "potential". Carl Davis could be good, but he's slow and might not be much of a pass rusher.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Good write up!

couple questions though...

1. Smith is still under contract so I don't get the resigning?
2. Why are you cutting Williams? It would only save $1 million and when healthy is has played well. We need depth on the DL and your draft didn't really go that route.
3. Why restructure VD then draft a TE in the 4th? Vance has been underwhelming, but he is only going into his 3rd year.

I'm all about going offense in the draft but that seems a bit overkill lol. I'm fine with DGB if Baalke thinks he is worth the 15th pick. Tons of upside and I have a good feeling about our new WR coach. Coleman would be a stud for us in the 2nd and I like the Rowe pick in the 5th.

What did you use for a draft board? Rowe is a 3-4 rd prospect on CBS Sports.

Not sure if Dorsett is there in the 3rd and was he good at kick/punt returns??...I think I'd rather go DL (especially if you're going Smelter in the 4th).

overall not bad thanks for the mock

1). Whoops. Mistake. Hard to keep track of everyone's exact status when there are so many players with uncertain futures in SF.

2). Maybe Glenn Dorsey would be a better cut than Ian Williams. Dorsey disgusted me getting blown 3+ yards off the ball in Lynch's 31-yd TD run on 3rd & 1 in the NFCCG, and I think he is horribly over-rated. People say "Omgz we were 7th vs. the run, that's great!"... not so great when you were #1 just a couple years ago and are complimented countless All-Pro's along the Front 7.

3) To save money and also be able to keep Vernon past this year. Even if Vance McDonald picks it up, we are still a heavy TE team. I actually like Derek Carrier, but I'm not ready to guarantee Vance Mac a roster spot based on what he's shown thus far.

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:

Originally posted by Travisty13:
What exactly has Dorsett shown that indicates he'd be a "needed boost" to our return game. He wasn't even Miami's return man this year, Stacy Coley was. And in all his time at Miami, he had 23 KR for 449 yards and a 19.5 average and as PR he had 16 returns for 79 yards and a 4.9 average. He's a horrible returner and wouldn't be an upgrade over anyone on this team. Some guys just aren't made to be returners, Dorsett is one.

We don't have anyone on our team that scares another team in the return game and Dorsett has not just great speed but the ability to make sharp cuts.

Our return game has been pathetic since Ginn left. With Dorsett, we at least bring a guy who has experience fielding punts and gives us a much better chance at an explosive return than anyone currently on the roster.

Bruce Ellington averaged slightly more than Dorsett in both KR/PR (+2.1 yds KR, +.4 PR), while having less experience and better athleticism... don't know what grounds to base on that Ellington's experience, current production and athletic make him a more ideal return man.

Did I say Ellington is a better return man or should be our returner? No. And Baalke clearly feels the same. Which is why Haynes opportunity to make the team is as a returner and why Ginn is back visiting. Baalke clearly is looking for a returner. And saying Dorsett would be a needed boost cause he's fast is just pure speculation. Dorsett was bad in college as a returner and will probably be worse as a pro. Regardless of how fast he is.

Originally posted by Travisty13:
Did I say Ellington is a better return man or should be our returner? No. And Baalke clearly feels the same. Which is why Haynes opportunity to make the team is as a returner and why Ginn is back visiting. Baalke clearly is looking for a returner. And saying Dorsett would be a needed boost cause he's fast is just pure speculation. Dorsett was bad in college as a returner and will probably be worse as a pro. Regardless of how fast he is.

Ellington handled a lot of the return duties and showed very little. You specifically said that Dorsett would not be an upgrade over anybody on our roster as a return man.

Ginn may or may not be back. I don't make mock drafts based on the team signing every single player they are rumored to talk to in an off-season.

Saying Dorsett, who actually HAS world class speed + return man experience would be a boost is pure speculation...

...but saying Jarryd Hayne, who has NEVER played a down of football and is a step or two slower than Dorsett, is NOT pure speculation? Think about what you are saying for a second.

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:
Ellington handled a lot of the return duties and showed very little. You specifically said that Dorsett would not be an upgrade over anybody on our roster as a return man.

Ginn may or may not be back. I don't make mock drafts based on the team signing every single player they are rumored to talk to in an off-season.

Saying Dorsett, who actually HAS world class speed + return man experience would be a boost is pure speculation...

...but saying Jarryd Hayne, who has NEVER played a down of football and is a step or two slower than Dorsett, is NOT pure speculation? Think about what you are saying for a second.

See you're misinterpreting what I'm saying. Ellington was not impressive to me as a rookie returner, but I still think he'd be better than Dorsett. Having world class speed doesn't make you a great return man. Jarvis Landry ran a 4.77 40 and was 4th in the NFL in return average.

And you think I said Haynes is a better returner, which I didn't. I said Baalke is clearly looking for a returner (visiting with Ginn; signing Haynes). And just because Haynes is slower than Dorsett, doesn't mean he'd be any worse.

But if we draft Dorsett, I don't see it as a return man, it'd be solely as a deep threat WR. Not because of his very limited experience as a returner.

Originally posted by Travisty13:
See you're misinterpreting what I'm saying. Ellington was not impressive to me as a rookie returner, but I still think he'd be better than Dorsett. Having world class speed doesn't make you a great return man. Jarvis Landry ran a 4.77 40 and was 4th in the NFL in return average.

And you think I said Haynes is a better returner, which I didn't. I said Baalke is clearly looking for a returner (visiting with Ginn; signing Haynes). And just because Haynes is slower than Dorsett, doesn't mean he'd be any worse.

But if we draft Dorsett, I don't see it as a return man, it'd be solely as a deep threat WR. Not because of his very limited experience as a returner.

If you feel you don't think Dorsett would be a good NFL return man, I can live with that. But you clearly said he wouldn't be an upgrade over any return people on our team, which doesn't really make a ton of sense considering we were not good at returning kicks in any capacity.

Haynes not being in the same ball park of explosiveness as Dorsett is just ONE reason why he has less of a chance at succeeding at the position. The fact that Haynes has never played a down of football at ANY level, let alone NFL, and asking him to play a position that requires the a ton of nerve and skill, IS.

Jarvis Landry is an anomaly and an exception to the rule. The best return men in the NFL, year after year, are 4.3-4.4 guys.

*FYI the NFL draft is a lot about transitioning to the NFL And projecting what a player can and can't do at the next level. There was a time when basically no colleges ran a 3-4, so OLB's were getting drafted with zero experience standing up as they were previously DE's, and big hitting S's like Thomas Davis are converted to OLB's because they are a tick too slow to play in an NFL secondary. Chris Culliver was a college S and Bruce Miller played on the other side of the ball altogether.

If you have a good argument citing Dorsett's actual SKILLS, and not stats off of a small sample size of returns, I'll be happy to hear it. If your argument is just that being a fast player doesn't guarantee being a good RS, and that a small sample size means he is incapable... well, those are just generalizations and numbers that don't say anything about his actual skill set.

Either way, if you're biggest "critique" of my draft is that you don't think Dorsett in the 3rd round would make a good return man (which is a secondary reason I even have us drafting him...), then I will take that as a compliment.

Bottom line, I have us drafting Dorsett in the 3rd to be a WR that threatens deep on every play and gives us a serious speed element and decoy... and consider it a BONUS if he can become a good return man.