Players you think will get drafted Higher/Lower than their perceived draft projection

Every year around draft time, there are countless mocks, big boards, analysis and scouting reports... and NONE of them are done by current NFL GM's or scouts. So as fans, we go off what we THINK actual NFL execs value these players.

This leads jaw-dropping moments on draft day. Blake Bortles at #3? Tyson Alualu at #11? Randy Moss, Aaron Rodgers and Dez Bryant dropping? Aldon Smith at #7? Etc.

Another misconception about the draft is that there needs to be a consensus opinion on a player for him to go at a certain pick range. The problem with this is it only takes ONE team to have a high opinion of that player and feel as though he won't be around by their next pick for the trigger to be pulled.

Here are players I think are either over or under hyped by national media and fans, have character concerns that are more or less troubling to teams than we think, and will surprise us where they go:


Who are yours?

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:
Every year around draft time, there are countless mocks, big boards, analysis and scouting reports... and NONE of them are done by current NFL GM's or scouts. So as fans, we go off what we THINK actual NFL execs value these players.

This leads jaw-dropping moments on draft day. Blake Bortles at #3? Tyson Alualu at #11? Randy Moss, Aaron Rodgers and Dez Bryant dropping? Aldon Smith at #7? Etc.

Another misconception about the draft is that there needs to be a consensus opinion on a player for him to go at a certain pick range. The problem with this is it only takes ONE team to have a high opinion of that player and feel as though he won't be around by their next pick for the trigger to be pulled.

Here are players I think are either over or under hyped by national media and fans, have character concerns that are more or less troubling to teams than we think, and will surprise us where they go:


Who are yours?

I think Landon Collins will go later than projected. Late 1st early 2nd.

I'm also not convinced Shleton is a top 10 pick.

I wouldn't be surprised if Gurley gets drafted before Gordon.

Devin Smith early, Gordon falls.

Niners grab Jake Ryan, stud

Byron Jones goes in 2nd round, higher than most expect.

Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Byron Jones goes in 2nd round, higher than most expect.

I think he'll go 2nd round too. Mayock just bumped him up to tied for 5th in his CB rankings, so I think it's becoming less of a surprise. I think La'el Collins is the 5th lineman taken even though Mayock has him as his top OT. I wouldn't be surprised if no linemen are taken before the 49ers pick. Just seems like a terrible class.

DGB = over-hyped goes mid 2nd
Chris Conley = goes 3rd brd

Originally posted by Vito_Corleone:
DGB = over-hyped goes mid 2nd
Chris Conley = goes 3rd brd

DGB is hard to get a handle on... talent is there for sure and he's got rare size/athleticism, but that incident is DAMNING considering what happened with Ray Rice and Greg Hardy. I could see him going in the Top 10 because a team was tantalized too much with his potential, I could also see him slipping to the 3rd because nobody trusts him.

Isn't Chris Conley the WR from Georgia? I could see him going 3rd/4th just on pure athleticism alone, but I don't think teams are fooled that much by amazing combine numbers from unproductive players. You could be right.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Originally posted by Luckycharms:
Byron Jones goes in 2nd round, higher than most expect.

I think he'll go 2nd round too. Mayock just bumped him up to tied for 5th in his CB rankings, so I think it's becoming less of a surprise. I think La'el Collins is the 5th lineman taken even though Mayock has him as his top OT. I wouldn't be surprised if no linemen are taken before the 49ers pick. Just seems like a terrible class.

I think he goes in the 2nd and wouldn't be shocked to see him sneak into the late 1st.

What putting on an absolute SHOW at the combine does is make teams go back and look at you more closely... then all of a sudden being a 4 year starter, team captain, excellent character marks and solid tape really stand out much more.

I wouldn't be surprised if Marcus Peters attitude dropped him to the 2nd. I don't think he goes in the 1st.

Originally posted by ChuckLeavy32:
Devin Smith early, Gordon falls.

Niners grab Jake Ryan, stud

I don't buy the hype on Melvin Gordon, personally... he's good, but I don't see an NFL super star. He'll be better than Ryan Mathews, lol...

The Jamaal Charles comparisons are off-base. He LOOKS like Jamaal Charles because of his build, dred locks and upright running style, but he doesn't have the juice in his legs that Charles does. Charles has world class speed and cutting ability, and is actually a tough inside runner. Gordon tries to bounce everything outside too much, with 4.5 speed, good luck doing that in the pros. More athletic RB's have failedi n the NFL trying to run like that.

I could see Devin Smith going in the 2nd... maybe if there is a major run on WR's early in the 1st and a team is WR needy and likes him, 1st could be a chance. Don't think he's a 1st round player though.

DGB - 3rd round. Yeah he has impressive workout numbers, but he's not a Calvin Johnson superfreak. Josh Gordon 2.0.

I didn't realize that not being a Calvin Johnson superfreak drops you to the 3rd round these days. I still expect him to go late first. His combine was a mixed bag - he doesn't have great length for his size and ran a slower 40 than I expected but he looked good in drills, put on a lot of weight, and it sounds like he has matured. I was impressed that be cut ties with a lot of the people in his life at Missouri and think it was smart to transfer.

Eric Rowe is another guy who I think will go earlier than people on here think. He reminds me a little of Jaelen Strong as a player who silenced questions at the combine. There were concerns about Rowe's deep speed and ability to stick with quicker receivers and he responded by being a top performer in every drill. Rowe ran a 4.45 with a 6.70 3 cone and 3.97 20 yard shuttle which is impressive for a guy people thought would have to move to safety. He also put up 19 reps on the bench press, had a 39" vertical, and broad jumped 10'5".

Rowe could either be a physical press corner who is very solid in run support or an extremely athletic FS. I don't think he's gotten enough credit for his combine performance as he's still appearing as a 5th round pick in some mock drafts. CBS already bumped him to a 3rd-4th round pick and I think he'll go late in the 3rd round.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Eric Rowe is another guy who I think will go earlier than people on here think. He reminds me a little of Jaelen Strong as a player who silenced questions at the combine. There were concerns about Rowe's deep speed and ability to stick with quicker receivers and he responded by being a top performer in every drill. Rowe ran a 4.45 with a 6.70 3 cone and 3.97 20 yard shuttle which is impressive for a guy people thought would have to move to safety. He also put up 19 reps on the bench press, had a 39" vertical, and broad jumped 10'5".

Rowe could either be a physical press corner who is very solid in run support or an extremely athletic FS. I don't think he's gotten enough credit for his combine performance as he's still appearing as a 5th round pick in some mock drafts. CBS already bumped him to a 3rd-4th round pick and I think he'll go late in the 3rd round.

Agreed.

Randy Gregory is projected way too early. He's a good player, but too small to have an impact. Teams will run at him all day. I could see him falling.

TJ Clemmings will get drafted earlier than projected due to his impressive athletism and high character. He's a little fresh on the Oline, but a coachable guy that could start at LT.

This is a deep RB class, but I think a team (NE or Philly) will surprise everyone and jump on Ameer Abdullah as soon as the RBs start coming off the board.

I think DJ Humphries ends up a top 12 pick. Not a lot of athletic LT's in this draft, so he's going to get a bump.

On the other side, I have a feeling that Jordan Phillips is going to drop out of the first round, and maybe freefall depending on his medicals and back. He is a gigantic kid, but he is nowhere in the league of Malcom Brown, Carl Davis, Eddie Goldman. Honestly, I don't get it. He is Alan Branch with less talent and athleticism.

Bryce Petty is going to be a second rounder. Too many QB hungry teams. TJ Yeldon is going the other way. He had to leave school because he was headed for the bench in 2015. Not the same player as two years ago.

Expect Jake Fisher to make a push into the top 45 picks. Again, left tackles have value.